신경망분석을 이용한 축구경기 승,패 예측모형 개발 -2006독일월드컵 대회를 중심으로-

김주학 ( Joo Hak Kim ),노갑택 ( Gap Taik Ro ),박종성 ( Jong Sung Park ),이원희 ( Won Hi Lee ) 한국스포츠정책과학원(구 한국스포츠개발원) 2007 체육과학연구 Vol.18 No.4

본 연구는 축구 경기 기록자료를 활용하여 축구경기의 승·패를 예측할 수 있는 모형을 개발하는 데 있다. 활용된 경기기록 자료는 2006년 독일 월드컵대회에 나타난 축구경기 전체 64경기의 FIFA TSG공식자료와 M대학교 경기분석 프로그램을 활용하여 산출된 경기기록 자료를 사용하였다. 연구기법으로는 최근에 예측연구에 많이 활용되고 있는 신경망 분석을 이용하여 예측율을 확인 하였으며, 예측율은 2개의 예측모형으로 분류하여 결과를 산출하였다. 구체적인 내용 및 방법은 다음과 같다. 2006년 독일월드컵에 나타난 기록 관련 요인 중 경기 내적요인을 중심으로 축구 경기의 승·패와 관련한 요인을 탐색하고 2006년 독일월드컵 전 경기에 대한 비디오녹화를 실시하였으며, 녹화된 비디오를 통하여 기록요인에 대하여 실시간 축구 경기분석 프로그램을 활용, 승·패와 관련한 기록요인을 점수화하였다. 점수화된 기록요인은 점유율, 성공률 관련 등 여러 가지 요인이 있었으나 실제 경기에서 예측을 할 수 있는 요인을 전문가와 회의를 통하여 선정하고 선정된 요인을 바탕으로 신경망 분석방법을 이용하여 축구경기 승·패 예측 모형을 개발하여 예측율을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 전문가회의를 통하여 기록화 할 수 있는 기록자료 요인을 중심으로 2006년 독일월드컵 전체 경기에 대하여 축구 경기분석 프로그램을 통하여 점수화하여 실제 다양한 요인이 내재된 경기에 대하여서도 내용분류를 통하여 점수화할 수 있음을 확인하였다. 둘째, 점수화된 경기 내적요인을 중심으로 신경망분석 방법을 통하여 축구경기에 대하여서도 승·패를 예측할 수 있음을 확인하였으며 타 종목에 대하여서도 실현 가능함을 확인할 수 있었다. 셋째, 축구경기의 승패에 대하여 87.5%의 예측율을 보임으로써 축구경기의 요인에 대한 중요도를 평가할 수 있는 연구의 기초를 확립하였다고 판단된다. This study was on purpose to investigate the various factors of soccer games into inner factors and classify performance factors objectively and scientifically using a soccer game analysis program and develop a model which can predict the result of the soccer games using the Neural NetWork Analysis that stands on the game graded record. The game recorded data was collected from the FIFA TSG official record and the data which was gained using a game analysis program. It has searched the factors related the game results which were focused on the game inner factors of the related factors in 2006 World cup games and recorded the whole games of 2006 World cup games, graded the recording factors related the win/lose using the video and the real time game analysis program with numbers. The graded recording factors with numbers were several; ball possession, completion, and so on. However, through the meeting with Neural NetWork Analysis, professionals prediction related factors which can predict in the real games were selected. And a soccer game win/lose prediction model was developed using the selected factors and Neural NetWork Analysis. It also was compared with the preceding researches in documents record studies. Followings are main results of this study; First, It was confirmed that it is available to grade the real factors in the games which include various factors through the professionals` meetings which implemented the analysis the 2006 Worldcup games and it was focused on the recording factors. Second, the graded recording inner-factors make it possible to predict the soccer game results using the Neural NetWork Analysis method. It was verified that it can be effective in other sports also. Third, the rate of predicting the soccer games` results was 87.5%. It is possible to understand this study contributes on the basis of the importancy of soccer game factors.

서울의 PPNG 발생 빈도(1991-1992)

김재홍,윤기범,박평원,김영진,전경민,김영태,김중환,곽호,구상완,송민석,유옥,지혜구,김동원,문상은,박영립,정승호,성범진,성순제,엄주용,황정열,이기홍,이주협,전태진 대한화학요법학회 1994 대한화학요법학회지 Vol.12 No.1

The prevalence of PPNG among pretreated gonorrhea cases isolated at the STD clinic of Choong-Ku Public Health Center in Seoul has been studied and reported annually since 1981. In 1991, 123 strains of N.gonorrhoeae were isolated, among which 58(47.1%) were PPNG. In 1992, 98 starains of N.gonorrhoeae were isolated, among which 51(52.0%) were PPNG. In all, 109(49.3%) strains were found to be PPNG among 221 strains isolated between 1991-1992. The prevalence of PPNG in Seoul showed increased tendency till 1989, thereafter, it has been stationary or slightly decreasing.

Multiple myeloma 환자에서 Bortezomib치료 후 발생한 마비성 장폐색증 1례

김준영,이원식,손창학,박성길,진한영,박석주,조영완,정은욱,강명주,박정하,주영돈 인제대학교 2006 仁濟醫學 Vol.27 No.-

Bortezomib is the first clinically available proteasome inhibitor that is clinically effective in the treatment of multiple myeloma. A proteasome inhibitor acts through multiple mechanisms to arrest tumor growth, tumor spread, and angiogenesis. The main adverse effects of bortezomib are gastrointestinal symptoms, cytopenia, fatigue, and peripheral neuropathy. To date, severe paralytic ileus has not been reported as a toxic effect of bortezomib treatment in multiple myeloma. Bortezomib is a novel agent that has only been used clinically for 30 months, so a need exists to further evaluate its toxicity. We report a case of grade Ⅲ (NCI CTCAE v3.0) or grade Ⅳ(SWOG toxicity criteria) paralytic ileus in a 65-year-old man with relapsed multiple myeloma who underwent one cycle of single-agent bortezomib treatment scheduled in a 21-day cycle (1.3 mg/㎥ as a single i.v. bolus on days 1, 4, 8, and 11).

국소성 분절성 사구체 경화증의 완전 관해 후 발병한 IgA 신병증 1예

임현민,김현정,박민석,주혜원,최원,김상현,박원도 인제대학교 2006 仁濟醫學 Vol.27 No.-

We report a rare case of primary glomerular disease with IgA nephropathy in a 43-year old man. 7-years ago, he was diagnosed with minimal change nephrotic syndrome. After treatment with steroid for 1-year, azotemia and proteinuria were improved. But, nephrotic range proteinuria was relapsed within 1 week after cessation of steroid. Renal biopsy revealed focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, and achived a complete remission with the use of steroids and cyclophosphamide. Then, he was followed up with normal renal function for 4-years. On admission, the patient showed generalized edema and marked proteinuria. In 3rd renal biopsy, mesangial proliferative glomerulonephritis with diffuse global sclerosis was observed. Electron microscopy showed electron-dense deposit on the mesangium with slight mesangial proliferation, and immunofluoroscence microscopy showed granular deposits of IgA and IgM. These features were consistent with IgA nephropathy, different from results of previous biopsies. The pathogenesis of IgA nephropathy occurred with primary FSGS is not clear, as well as treatment. Now, proteinuria is improving, steroid and cyclophosphamide are probably useful for the disease.

부산.경남지역의 일부 고등학교 교사들의 물리치료에 대한 인식도 조사

김지원,박상현,주성희,김용권,안덕현,Kim, JI-Won,Park, Sang-Hyeon,Joo, Sung-Hui,Kim, Yong-Kwon,Ahn, Duck-Hyun 대한물리치료과학회 2003 대한물리치료과학회지 Vol.10 No.2

This study randomly chose 10 humanity high schools, which are located in Busan and KyoungNam province. We then examined the recognition rate of physical therapy among 378 teachers who were and still are working in the schools. 1. The recognition grade of physical therapeutics between men and women was significantly different with results of 80.7% of men and 69.7% of women(p<0.05). In the case of experiencing physical therapy, 83.6% of people said they knew the physical therapeutics and in the case of the opposite side, the result was also significantly different with a result of 67.8%(p<0.05). 2. We ranked the people on how much they knew about the physical therapeutics among men and women. With men, the actual experience of physical therapeutic came before what they heard from other people. In the case of women, what they heard from other people came first and the actual experience of physical therapeutic came after. According to the public information from Inje University, the recognition grade is recorded in the 3rd grade department as 21.5% while in the case of experiencing treatment from a physical therapist, the result was 39.1%. In the other department (the 1st grade department), what men and women heard from mass media was recorded at 17.5% and what they heard from other people, it was recorded at 33.8%(p<0.05). 3. The research about the recognition of academic ability of being a physical therapist was that 55.6% of teachers thought that 3-year-college was the best, which made the results different from the recognition grade of the experience of education(p<0.05). 4. In the recognition grade of physical therapeutics, there were significantly differences from 50.2% of men and 45.2% of women were expecting about 1mil ion won to 1.99million won. In case of 25.2% of people who have experience less than 15years at work, they expected about 2million to 2.99million won. The figures were higher than 10.1% of people who have experiences over 15years. About the recognition grade of physical therapists social level in the future is 48.8% of people who had experienced of physical therapy and 63.8% of people who never had experienced of it said it would be better in the future. From these results, the recognition about physical therapeutics and the view of its social status are optimistic and they know well about the level of academic ability of physical therapists. On the other hand, most teachers don't know exactly about physical therapists work. So we have to inform them aggressively for enhancing the recognition of physical therapy because high school students are well affected by their teachers when they face their future or major in university.

골다공증 진단에 피부 두께의 임상적 유용성 평가

박원근,최민주,김호찬,조성제,박전홍 제주대학교 공과대학 첨단기술연구소 2001 尖端技術硏究所論文集 Vol.12 No.2

The study was carried out to examine how much clinically useful was the skin thickness in diagnosis of osteoporosis. The project was to look into not only the presumption that patients with osteoporosis have the skin loss at the similar rate of the reduction in the collagen content of the bone but also the correlation between the collagen content and the skin thickness. The skin thickness was measured on the dorsal hand(right) of the patients using an ultrasonic technique with a 20 MHz focused ultrasonic transducer. Measurements of the bone density of the patients were made on both the lumbar spine (L2-4) and the femoral neck using Dual­Energy X­ray Absorptionmeter(DEXA, Norland). An ultrasonic bone densitometer(Mark 6000, Medison Co. Korea) was taken to measure the speed of sound (SOS) on the calcaneus. It was observed that there were some degrees of correlation between the bone density obtained by the DEXA and the SOS of the calcaneous (P<0.01). There was no evidence that the skin thickness was correlated with the DEXA produced bone density and ultrasonically measured SOS.

Chopin Etude Op.10 No.12의 연주를 위한 분석 연구

박주원 김천대학교 2003 김천대학교 논문집 Vol.24 No.-

Analytic Study For Performing F. Chopin Etude Op.10 No.12 Fryderyk Franciszek Chopin (1810~1849), the Polish musician of the 19th century, is well renowned for his unique realms of music made up with a single instrument, piano. In the early 19th century, along with the rapidly increasing popularitv of piano, various ranges of piano etudes met their florescence. Notable works of this period includes J.B. Cramer's 4-volumed work <Studies>, Musio Clementi' s <Gradus ad Parnassum>, Moscheles' s <Studien Op.70>, Karl Czerny' s etude, and so on. Chopin' s Etudes differ from other' s early etudes in that they are not only useful for technical improvement, but also remarkable for their artistic capability which completely embodies musical connotation. In other words, his Etudes is a great work focused on maximizing the expressive power of both technical and musical aspects. Naturally, pianists take it for granted that it is a requisite for studying as well as an admirable repertoire for a recital. Moreover, the simultaneous combination of chromatic scale and cacophonous rhythm appeared in his works became a new method. No doubt succeeding composers have been affected by Chopin, espe-cially with his lyrical melodies, diverse harmonic changes, free-wheeling tempo rubato. And so Chopin' s Etude are reckoned aesthetically and technically par excellence. While most of his works show introspective features, the series of Etudes are distinctive to present drastic, fresh, colorful atmosphere and implies the feeling of improvisation within the firmly limited structure form. Etude Op.10 No.12, well known as "Revolution" , was composed in Stuttgart when Prussia retreated from Poland after its last resistance. It. contains several suggestions how to cope with technical difficulties. The interesting melodies, free rhythm patterns, various harmonies of this opus emphasize importance of interpretation and emotional expres- sion. The purpose of this study is to understand the structure form and harmonic progression of Chopin's Etude Op.10 No.12. Analysis and suggestion of performance method on musical expression of rhythm, bridging, breathing, fingering, grace note of phrasing, octave skipping, legato, diverse expression, how to use pedal how to use pedal. how to divide passage, and dynamic will be followed. A work of a composer is not only made by inspiration but also by plan- ning and methodical order. Therefore, every players should try to find out the main idea of the composer by studying composition and should also try to perform correct interpretation and expression. This is very important to well understand a music composition while practicing play-from-memory.

재요청을 고려한 버스중재프로토콜의 효율성 분석

박준석,이원주,전창호 漢陽大學校 工學技術硏究所 1997 工學技術論文集 Vol.6 No.1

Efficiency of bus arbitration scheme is modeled to analyze and compare five known arbitration protocols for single-bus multiprocessor system. The analytical model describes average access time as a measure of efficiency and takes resubmitted requests into account, amending contradiction of previous assumption that bus requests in each cycle are independent of those of previous cycles. The analytical results obtained from our model show that the efficiency of the equal priority protocol is as good as that of the rotating priority protocol.

주식분할 정보공시가 주가의 최적 거래가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증연구

박주현,김원기 경복대학 2004 京福論叢 Vol.8 No.-

본 연구는 우리나라에서 주식분할제도가 본격적으로 시행된 1997년부터 2000년까지 주식분할을 공시한 거래소 및 코스닥 상장기업을 대상으로 주식분할의 정보효과가 있는 지와 그 원인을 검증하였다. 연구결과 정보효과 원인에 대한 분석의 일환으로 최적거래가격범위가설에 대하여 검증한 결과, 고가격 주식에서 통계적으로 유의한 초과수익률이 확인되어 고가격주식이 적정한 가격대로 전환하기 위하여 주식분할을 실시한다는 최적거래가격범위가설이 설득력을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. Stock splits do not change financial structure or cash flow but only increase the number of shares in the company. One is 'Optimum Trading Price Range Hypothesis' where there exits specific trading price range suitable for the easiness of trading, and stock splits increase the trading convenience. This result is consistent with 'Optimum Trading Price Range Hypothesis'. According to the hypothesis, it is expected that high stock price companies have more suitable price range after the splits and their stock price increase more after the splits. But, we couldn't find any evidence consistent with 'Signalling Motive Hypothesis'.

기계연마에 기인한 Pd(100)의 표면 지형에 대한 AFM 분석

박현주,정경한,추명석,진원배 동아대학교 기초과학연구소 2001 基礎科學硏究論文集 Vol.18 No.1

기계 연마에 기인하는 Pd(100) 표면의 지형 및 연마과정 중에 행해지는 표면 세척방법에 따라 표면 거칠기에 미치는 영향을 AFM으로 조사하였다. 연마 입자의 크기별로 순차적으로 3, 1, 0.1, 0.04 ㎛의 입자로 연마를 수행하였다. 연마의 매 단계마다 시료 표면에 남아있는 연마제를 제거하기 위하여 시료 표면을 단순히 흐르는 물로 세척하는 경우와, 흐르는 물에서 솜으로 세척하는 경우의 표면 거칠기를 비교한 결과, 제곱평균 제곱근에 의한 표면 거칠기는 5×5 ㎛2의 주사영역에서 평균적으로 각각 1.61, 1.08, 0.82 nm 정도의 차이로, 후자의 경우가 훨씬 효과적임을 보여주었다. 이러한 사실로부터 단순히 흐르는 물에 의한 세척으로는 연마의 전 단계에서 사용된 연마 입자들이 표면상에서 완전히 제거되지 않고 다음 단계의 연마 결과에 영향을 미친다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 또한 연마과정 중 bulk로부터 빠져 나온 것으로 보이는 알갱이들이 연마입자에 의해서 발생하는 스크래치의 가장자리를 따라 흡착되어 있는 것이 관측되었다. The effect of surface cleaning performed at every step of mechanical polishing process on surface roughness was investigated with AFM surface topography. Diamond suspensions with grain sizes of 3, 1, 0.1 ㎛ and colloidal silica of 0.04 ㎛ for final polishing were used as abrasive in turn. When the specimen was cleaned with only flowing water at each polishing step, some part of particles remained on the specimen after cleaning. These remaining particles gave rise to relatively pronounced scratches on the surface during the subsequent polishing step, In the other hand, in the case cleaned with a soft wool in flowing water, it was showed that the remaining particles were removed almost all. The lower degree of rms-surface roughness in the latter case compared to that of the former case was obtained, as the differences of rms-surface roughness between both cases were on an average 1.6 nm,1.1 nm, and 0.8nm, respectively, for an area of 5×5 ㎛2 after polishing with 1, 0.1, and 0.04㎛ grain size. In addition, it was found that particles are deposited at the edges of the scratches, which are probably Pd particles removed by the mechanical polishing.