A Forecasting Method of Electricity Sales Considering the User Churn Rate in a Power Market Environment

Zhaoyang Qu,Wanxin Wang,Nan Qu,Yuqing Liu,Hongbo Lv,Kewei Hu,Jianyou Yu,Manyang Gao,Jiajun Song 대한전기학회 2019 Journal of Electrical Engineering & Technology Vol.14 No.4

In order to improve the accuracy of forecasts of the electricity sales of power sales companies, a depth forecast model of electricity sales based on the characteristics of the power market is proposed. First, based on survival analysis, the calculation method of the user churn rate in the electricity market is given, and the number of users at a certain moment in the future is predicted. Then, users’ electricity consumption that calculated by the deep belief network and the predicted quantity of users are combined to design a forecast model of electricity sales. Finally, the model is solved utilizing the weighting algorithm of adaptive inertia. The analysis of the example shows that the proposed method achieves a signifi cant improvement in the accuracy of power sales forecasting.

Optimization Model of EV Charging and Discharging Price Considering Vehicle Owner Response and Power Grid Cost

Zhaoyang Qu,Jiajun Song,Yuqing Liu,Hongbo Lv,Kewei Hu,Jian Sun,Miao Li,Wei Liu,Mingshi Cui,Wanxin Wang 대한전기학회 2019 Journal of Electrical Engineering & Technology Vol.14 No.6

The problem of load fuctuation in the distribution network and increasing power grid cost input caused by the unpredictable behavior of electric vehicle (EV) users in response to electricity price is investigated in this paper. An optimization model method for the charging and discharging price of electric vehicles is proposed, considering the vehicle owner response and power grid cost. The rule of EV user travel is frst analyzed, and the travel and battery state constraints are defned. Under the constraints of user charging and discharging behavior and battery characteristics, a user transfer rate and unit energy cost function is designed to construct a multi-objective model of charging and discharging price that minimizes electricity expenditure and avoids an increase in power grid investment. Finally, an improved multi-target fsh swarm algorithm is presented to solve the model optimization problem. The example analysis shows that the proposed method can reduce the peak-valley load diference of the system and cost input of the power grid, as well as provide users with regulation ability to access the power grid at diferent time periods

Correction to: A Forecasting Method of Electricity Sales Considering the User Churn Rate in a Power Market Environment

Zhaoyang Qu,Wanxin Wang,Nan Qu,Yuqing Liu,Hongbo Lv,Kewei Hu,Jianyou Yu,Manyang Gao,Jiajun Song 대한전기학회 2019 Journal of Electrical Engineering & Technology Vol.14 No.6

Due to unfortunate mistake the grant numbers have been omitted in the acknowledgments section: This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51437003), Jilin Province Science and Technology Development Plan Project of China (20160623004TC, 20180201092GX), Jilin Science and Technology Innovation Development Plan Project of China (201830817).

Modified Factor for Segmented Pipes in Chinese Pipe Seismic Design Code Based on Probability Density Evolution Method

Wei Liu,Zhaoyang Song,Huiquan Miao 대한토목학회 2018 KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING Vol.22 No.3

Buried pipes are important components of water and gas supply systems. A series of investigations indicate that buried pipes in China suffered serious damages in previous strong earthquakes. Therefore, seismic response analysis and design of buried pipes is an important research topic. In this study, a program is proposed to give the modified factors for segmented pipes in Chinese pipe seismic design code based on the probability Density Evolution Method (PDEM). A stochastic analysis method based on a finite element model of buried pipes and the Probability Density Evolution Method (PDEM) is proposed to determine probability density functions of seismic responses of buried segmented pipes. Then, seismic responses with different guaranteed rates can be derived and adopted for the design of buried pipes in preparation for earthquakes. Stochastic seismic responses of three segmented pipes buried in four sites are calculated using the proposed method. Joint deformations with guaranteed rates of 50%, 80%, 90%, 95%, and 99% are then summarized, and the modified factors for segmented pipes are derived to modify the Chinese code.

Potential influence of nutrients intake by adults on the population dynamics of Athetis lepigone (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

Zhou Yayuan,Song Peng,Luo Dan,Feng Zhaoyang,Wang Da,He Yunzhuan 한국응용곤충학회 2023 Journal of Asia-Pacific Entomology Vol.26 No.2

Athetis lepigone is an important pest on corn, but little is known about the nutritional requirements of adult A. lepigone and how nutrients affect their reproduction and longevity. Here, we explored the effects of different nutrients on the reproduction, longevity, and population growth of A. lepigone. Carbohydrates were beneficial for adult reproduction and longevity, with feeding 5% sucrose having the best effect by resulting in an average of 424.83 eggs per female. When females consumed carbohydrates, the net reproductive rate (R 0 ) and the intrinsic rate of increase (r m ) were higher. However, the fecundity of adults fed only amino acids and high concentration fat emulsion decreased significantly, with an average of 60 to 160 eggs per female. The main food source of Lepidoptera insects is the nectar from flowering plants in the field. Due to compound planting patterns, flowering plants are widely distributed around farmland. The nectar secreted by them usually contains rich carbohydrates, which can be provided for adults. Therefore, we must also consider the potential impact of flowering plants on A. lepigone, in order to improve pest control efficiency.

The Combined Effect of Sodium Butyrate and Low Culture Temperature on the Production, Sialylation, and Biological Activity of an Antibody Produced in CHO Cells

Fei Chen,Tianci Kou,Li Fan,Yan Zhou,Zhaoyang Ye,Liang Zhao,Wen-Song Tan 한국생물공학회 2011 Biotechnology and Bioprocess Engineering Vol.16 No.6

Cell cultures containing 0 ~ 5 mM sodium butyrate (NaBu) and grown at 30 and 37°C were conducted to investigate the combined effect of NaBu and low temperature on the quantity and quality of an antibody production in CHO cells. Although NaBu addition decreased cell viability by apoptosis in a dose-dependent manner at both 30 and 37°C, the onset of significant apoptosis induced by NaBu was delayed by lowering culture temperature. The highest specific antibody productivity (q_p) of 23.26 pg/cell/day was obtained in the culture containing 2 mM NaBu at 30°C; however, the highest antibody concentration of 167.84 mg/L was achieved in the culture containing 1 mM NaBu at 30°C, as the detrimental effect of further NaBu addition on cell growth compromised its beneficial effect on q_p. Moreover, protein quality with respect to the total sialic acid content and Nglycolylneuraminic acid (Neu5Gc) level was evaluated. There were no apparent changes regarding the total sialic acid content of the antibody, but manipulation of cultures with NaBu treatment or (and) low culture temperature did decrease Neu5Gc levels by 5 ~ 10%. Biological activity of the antibody was also assessed, and no obvious changes were observed. Collectively, the simultaneous application of NaBu and low culture temperature was an effective way to extend culture period and enhance final antibody concentration,without compromising the sialic acid content or biological activity.

Operation Safety Risk Assessment of Water Distribution Networks Based on the Combined Weighting Method (CWM)

Wei Liu,Wanli Cui,Mingji Chen,Qunfang Hu,Zhaoyang Song 대한토목학회 2023 KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering Vol.27 No.5

This study proposes the risk assessment framework of water distribution networks with a focus on the determination of weights of various risk indices. First, the pipe risk list is built, in which pipe failure probability and consequence are considered. By integrating the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the entropy weighting method (EWM), the weights of these indices are obtained by the combined weighting method (CWM), by which both human experience and data distribution can be considered comprehensively. Taking a real WDN in an industrial zone in China as an example, the proposed method is demonstrated in detail and the risks of all pipes are determined. The accuracy of the CWM is validated from the perspective of risk levels of pipes with historical failure records. It is found that the AHP or EWM underestimates or overestimates pipe risks, respectively. Compared to them, the CWM provides reasonable results. In addition, the risks of plastic pipes, newly buried pipes less than five years old, and pipes over twenty years old are much higher.

Non-contact Coculture Reveals a Comprehensive Response of Chondrocytes Induced by Mesenchymal Stem Cells Through Trophic Secretion

Lei Xu,Yuxi Wu,Yanli Liu,Yan Zhou,Zhaoyang Ye,Wen-Song Tan 한국조직공학과 재생의학회 2018 조직공학과 재생의학 Vol.15 No.1

Coculture between mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) and chondrocytes has significant implications in cartilage regeneration. However, a conclusive understanding remains elusive. Previously, we reported that rabbit bone marrowderived MSCs (rbBMSCs) could downregulate the differentiated phenotype of rabbit articular chondrocytes (rbACs) in a non-contact coculture system for the first time. In the present study, a systemic investigation was performed to understand the biological characteristics of chondrocytes in coculture with MSCs. Firstly, cells (MSCs and chondrocytes) from different origins were cocultured in transwell system. Different chondrocytes, when cocultured with different MSCs respectively, consistently demonstrated stimulated proliferation, transformed morphology and declined glycosaminoglycan secretion of chondrocytes. Next, cell surface molecules and the global gene expression of rbACs were characterized. It was found that cocultured rbACs showed a distinct surface molecule profile and global gene expression compared to both dedifferentiated rbACs and rbBMSCs. In the end, cocultured rbACs were passaged and induced to undergo the chondrogenic redifferentiation. Better growth and chondrogenesis ability were confirmed compared with control cells without coculture. Together, chondrocytes display comprehensive changes in coculture with MSCs and the cocultured rbACs are beneficial for cartilage repair.