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황석원,황정태,Hwang, Seog-Won,Hwang, Jung-Tae 한국해양학회 2008 바다 Vol.13 No.3
본 연구는 최근의 금속가격변화를 고려한 36개의 시나리오를 작성하고 이에 대하여 망간단괴 채광, 제련의 경제성 평가를 수행하였다. 각 시나리오는 낙관/중립/비관의 채광 및 제련 비용전망과 2가지 생산규모, 그리고 6가지 금속가격 전망을 조합하여 작성되었다. 낙관/중립 비용전망에 따른 대부분의 시나리오에서 긍정적인 경제성 평가 결과가 도출되었다. 예로 300만 건톤의 망간단괴 채광의 경우, 중립적인 비용전망을 취하고 2007년 전반기의 금속가격을 가정하면 37.1%의 내부수익률을 얻는 것으로 나타났다. The economics of manganese nodules mining was assessed based on 36 scenarios which reflect recent changes of the metal market. Those scenarios included optimistic/neutral/pessimistic prospect for the cost, 2 production scales(1.5 MT and 3 MT) and 6 assumptional paths of future metal prices. A large part of scenarios, in which optimistic or neutral prospect for the cost and metal prices were assumed, showed good economic feasibility of the project. For example, 37.12% of Internal Rate of Return(IRR) was obtained in the scenario of 3 MT production, neutral cost prospect and present metal price maintained in the future.
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황석원(Seog-Won, Hwang),오승환(Seung-Hwan, Oh),우청원(Ceung-Won, Woo),장필성(Pil-Seoung, Jang),홍사균(Sa-Gyun, Hong),강희종(Hee-Jong, Kang),최창택(Chang-Taek, Choi),김기환(Gi-Hwan, Kim),이재진(Jae-Jin, Lee),김지훈(Ji-Hoon, Kim) 과학기술정책연구원 2016 정책연구 Vol.- No.-
This study is a late study of “An Exploratory Study on STI policy impact assessment”. In the research of 2015, in principle, it is necessary to evaluate not only R&D investment but also general policies such as various promotion systems, standards and regulations by putting the term “policy impact assessment” in front of it We emphasized the points. However, it is practically very difficultto collect and analyze detailed data of all STI policies. In addition, it is also restricted to allow policy researchers to access data within a certain range. Therefore, this study focuses on the impact assessment of R&D investment, which accounts for the largest percentage of STI policies. In this research, the impact assessment system of R&D investment is analyzed by classifying it into evaluation of economic impact and social impact assessment. Also, the evaluation of economic impact was analyzed separating into a micro viewpoint and a macro viewpoint. First, The analysis of the economic impact assessment of the micro viewpoint relates to how the government’s R&D investment affects enterprises. Specifically, the main analysis target was the employment and investment of companies, the impact on sales and profits. Second, The Analysis for macroeconomic impact assessment on the economy is related to the influence of government’s R&D investment such as national economic growth, employment etc. We also analyzed the spillover effect by industry according to R&D investment. Third, The social impact assessment is to analyze how R&D investment has impacted technology-based social change. This study is a very difficult attempt. However, we analyzed from the point of view of the consumer considering all social change areas as much as possible. The results of the study are summarized as follows. First, the study of economic impact evaluation shows the effect of R&D investment and it can be used as a basis to improve the efficiency and goal of R&D investment in future sectors such as employment, economic growth and investment. Second, through research on social impact assessment, government R&D investment has focused on specific areas in terms of improving the quality of life and social development of people, and confirmed that most social sectors are neglected. In addition, we proposed policy priorities for specific social change indicators and social sectors and proposed long-term R&D investment strategies. Finally, this study is expected to contribute to the establishment of future strategy of private enterprise through the measurement of social change index, the social influence of private research and development, and the influence of technology shock from abroad.
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전략적 유연성을 고려한 연구개발사업의 경제성 평가: 이론 및 사례 분석
황석원 ( Seog Won Hwang ),정종욱 ( Jong Wook Jeong ) 기술경영경제학회 2006 Journal of Technology Innovation Vol.14 No.3
Under circumstances with increasing uncertainty, strategic flexibility has become an essential point on which any R&D management system should be based. Unfortunately the present R&D management system for government sponsored R&D programs cannot be said to be so flexible to adapt appropriately to various threatens such as technological failure, a severe change in competition environment, and so on. In this paper a new scheme for R&D planning and economic assessment with strategic flexibility is suggested and applied to a real R&D program. In the newly suggested R&D management system, economic valuation based on real option theory is performed for various alternative scenarios which have different strategic scheme for R&D process each and the result of the assessment is fed back to R&D planning to choose more superior strategic scheme. Introducing strategic flexibility into R&D planning and economic assessment, the value of R&D project could be remarkably enhanced.
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과학기술정보 관리·유통사업의 경제성 분석 모델 수립에 관한 연구
박성욱,이필우,한선화,이상환,황석원,Park, Sung-Uk,Lee, Pill-Woo,Hahn, Sun-Hwa,Lee, Sang-Hwan,Hwang, Seog-Won 한국과학기술정보연구원 과학기술정보센터 2012 Journal of Information Science Theory and Practice Vol.43 No.3
급변하는 환경변화에 대응하고 과학기술정보 관리 유통사업에 대한 연구수행의 효율화 및 성과 활용, 확산을 극대화하기 위해 경제성 분석 모델을 수립하였다. 과학기술정보 관리 유통사업은 일반적인 연구개발과 그 목적 자체가 다르다. 경제적 성과를 창출하기 위한 상업용 연구개발이 아닌 공공서비스 제공을 목적으로 한 연구개발이 대부분인 상황에서 경제적 성과를 분석하기 위한 경제성 분석 모델을 개발했다는 데 본 논문의 의의가 있다. 특히 이질적인 연구사업에 대한 경제성 분석 모형 및 절차적 방법론의 사전 구축을 통하여 향후 국가 과학기술정보 관리 유통사업에 대한 경제성 분석과 R&D 효율성 제고에 기여할 것으로 기대된다. We established economic models for economic performance analysis in order to respond to changes in a rapidly changing environment. We tried to maximize business efficiency and performance of science and technology information management distribution project. The science and technology information management distribution project is significantly different from general R&D project. In this paper, it is meaningful to develop economic models to analyze economic outcomes for science and technology information management distribution project. We anticipate that these models will contribute greatly to economic performance analysis for science and technology information management distribution project.
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미래성장동력 선정을 위한 새로운 방법론 모색: 한국미래기술지수의 개발을 중심으로
배용호 ( Yonh Ho Bae ),최지선 ( Ji Sun Choi ),황석원 ( Seog Won Hwang ),이우성 ( Woo Sung Lee ),고명주 ( Myoung Ju Koh ) 기술경영경제학회 2011 Journal of Technology Innovation Vol.19 No.3
본 연구는 경제가 가진 성장의 한계를 극복하고 새로운 도약의 계기를 마련하기 위해 새로운 성장동력산업의 발굴의 중요성을 인식하고, 미래성장동력으로서의 잠재력을 평가하기 위한 수단으로 한국미래기술지수(Korea Future Technology Index: KOFTI)를 개발하였다. 한국미래기술지수는 미래성장동력의 선정과 관련한 선행연구의 문제점을 보완하여 미래 성장동력 발굴의 객관성과 신뢰성 제고에 기여할 수 있는 종합지수이다. 본 연구는 경제성, 미래전략성, 기술영향력이라는 세 개별지수를 통합하는 한국미래기술지수를 설계하고, 이의현장 적용성을 검증하기 위해 정부에서 추진 중인 신성장동력 사업의 62개 스타브랜드를 대상으로 실제 분석을 실시하여 13개 대표 스타브랜드를 도출하였다. This paper aims at developing a new index that represents the Korean new growth industries, which is named the Korea Future Technology Index(KOFTI). The KOFTI is designed to provide a reliable and econometric index based on which the Korean government searches for new growth engines. The KOFTI is composed of three individual indexes such as the Economic Impact Index, the Future Strategy Index, and the Technological Influence Index. The KOFTI is applied for 62 star brands, which have been promoted by the Korean government for the korean future industrial competitiveness. The top 13 leading industries are drawn from the calculation of the KOFTI for 62 star brands.
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