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      • KCI등재

        기상자료 공간내삽과 작물 생육모의 기법에 의한 전국의 읍면 단위 쌀 생산량 예측

        윤진일,조경숙 한국농림기상학회 2001 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.3 No.1

        Crop status monitoring and yield prediction at higher spatial resolution is a valuable tool in various decision making processes including agricultural policy making by the national and local governments. A prototype crop forecasting system was developed to project the size of rice crop across geographic areas nationwide, based on daily weather pattern. The system consists of crop models and the input data for 1,455 cultivation zone units (the smallest administrative unit of local government in South Korea called "Myun") making up the coterminous South Korea. CERES-rice, a rice crop growth simulation model, was tuned to have genetic characteristics pertinent to domestic cultivars. Daily maximum/minimum temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation surface on 1km by 1km grid spacing were prepared by a spatial interpolation of 63 point observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration network. Spatial mean weather data were derived for each Myun and transformed to the model input format. Soil characteristics and management information at each Myun were available from the Rural Development Administration. The system was applied to the forecasting of national rice production for the recent 3 years (1997 to 1999). The model was run with the past weather data as of September 15 each year, which is about a month earlier than the actual harvest date. Simulated yields of 1,455 Myuns were grouped into 162 counties by acreage-weighted summation to enable the validation, since the official production statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is on the county basis. Forecast yields were less sensitive to the changes in annual climate than the reported yields and there was a relatively weak correlation between the forecast and the reported yields. However, the projected size of rice crop at each county, which was obtained by multiplication of the mean yield with the acreage, was close to the reported production with the r^2 values higher than 0.97 in all three years.

      • SCIESCOPUSKCI등재
      • KCI등재

        제주도의 농업기후 분석 1 : 지형기후 추정법과 동계 일최저기온 분포

        尹進一,柳根培,李珉榮,鄭貴源 韓國作物學會 1989 Korean journal of crop science Vol.34 No.3

        종관기상자료만으로 충족시킬 수 없는 농업분야 국지기상정보 수요에 대처하기 위해 지형기후 관계식에 의거한 제주도 전역의 정밀기후 추정 및 표출방법을 개발하였다. 먼저 도전역을 250m 간격의 직교격자로 구획하고 교차점의 해발고도를 지형도상에서 판독하여 사방 1km 지역(단위격자)의 평균해발고도, 평균경사도, 그리고 평균 경사방향 등 지형내자를 계산, 정량화하였다. 18개의 기존 및 신설 기상관측소가 위치한 단위격자의 지형 인자값과 실제 관측된 일최저기온값을 중회귀분석하여 지형일기온 관계식을 도출하고 이로부터 미관측 격자에 대하여 주정치를 계산하였다. 구체적으로 겨울철 일최저기온에 대하여 3개의 전형적인 기압계 유형별로 최적 추정식을 만들어 해안지대에 위치한 제주 및 서귀포 관측자료와 기압계 유형판별만으로 도전역의 일최저온 분포 예측을 가능케 하였다. Agricultural activities in Chejudo require more specialized weather services in this region. The meteorological information available from the Korea Meteorological Service (KMS) is limited in its areal coverage because the KMS stations are located along the narrow band of coastal area. topoclimatological technique which makes use of empirical relationships between the topography and the weather can be applied to produce reasonable estimates of the climatic variables such as air temperature and precipitation over remote land area where routine observations are rare. Presentation of these estimates in a from of fine-mesh grid map can also be helpful to upgrade the quality of weather services in this region. Altitude values of the 250 m grid points were read from a 1: 25000 topographic map and the mean altitude, the mean slope, and the aspect of the slope were determined for each 1 km2 land area from these altitude data. Daily minimum air temperature data were collected from 18 points in Chejudo during the winter period from November 1987 to February 1988. The data were grouped into 3 sets based on synoptic pressure pattern. Departures from the KMS observations were regressed to the topographical variables to delineate empirical relationships between the local minimum temperature under specific pressure patterns and the site topography. The selected regression equations were used to calculate the daily minimum temperature for each 1 km2 land area under the specific pressure patterns. The outputs were presented in a fine-mesh grid map with a 6-level contour capability.

      • 濟州島의 農業氣候 分析 : Ⅱ. 無人觀測網에 의한 氣象實況資料 蒐集 및 蒸發散位 計算 Ⅱ. Potential Evapotranspiration Based on Near-Real Time Data Measured by Automated Weather Stations

        尹進一 경희대학교 부설 식량자원개발연구소 1991 硏究論文集 Vol.12 No.-

        道內 中山間地帶 農業開發 지원을 위해 필요한 氣候資料를 蒐集된 資料로부터 農業氣候指數의 하나인 蒸發散位를 계산하는 과정에 대하여 硏究하였다. 섬의 동쪽과 서쪽 中山間地帶 氣候를 대표할 수 있는 두 지점에 無人觀測所를 설치하고 퍼스컴通信 기술을 利用해 日射, 氣溫, 濕度, 風向, 風速 및 降水資料를 蒐集하였다. 1989년 6월 한달간 蒐集된 資料를 利用해 두 지점간 日氣象 特性을 分析하였으며, Penman식에 의해 蒸發散位값을 추정하였다. 상대적으로 풍부한 純輻射에너지와 南西氣流에 의한 Fo¨hn 현상에 의해 섬의 동쪽 中山間地帶가 서쪽에 비해 1~2도 가량 높은 氣溫을 유지하였다. 地溫은 두 지점간에 차이가 없었으며 최고 및 최저溫度 출현시각은 氣溫에 비해 4시간 지연되었다. 바람은 서쪽에서 강했으며 주야간 해륙풍 순환 현상도 동쪽에 비해 뚜렷하였다. 계산된 蒸發散位값은 동쪽이 서쪽에 비해 6% 높았으며 海岸地帶 추정값에 비해 30% 가량 높았다. Weather data acquisition and potential evapotranspiration (PET) calculation procedure were investigated to support the agricultural development efforts in the mid-altitude mountainous region of Cheju Island. Automated weather stations (AWS) were installed at two points representing the east and the west of the study area. A personal computer was employed to collect the near-real time weather data from AWS through the public telephone line. Hourly data were available for solar radiation, air and soil temperature, relative humidity. wind speed and direction, and precipitation. Based on the data for the month of June 1989, daily climatic features were coniparatively analyzed for the two areas and the Penman equation was used to calculate PET. Air temperature was higher by 1 to 2 degree C in the east due mainly to the higher solar radiation and partly to the Fohn effect caused by the daytime southwesterly blowing over Mt. Halla. Diurnal march of soil temperature lagged by 4 hours behind that of air temperature, and the diurnal range for l0cm subsurface soil was 3 degree C. Wind was consistently stronger and a marked sea-land breeze circulation was detected in the west. Calculated PET values were higher in the east by 6% than in the west. Overall values from the east and the west of the mid-altitude mountainous region were higher by 30% than those of the coastal region, which were estimated from the Class A Pan evaporation measured by the Korea Meteorological Service Offices.

      • KCI등재
      • 고도보정 공간내삽에 의한 전국의 1km²단위 기상실황 추정

        윤진일,이동석,최재연,조성인,박은우,황헌 한국농업정보과학회 1999 농업정보과학 Vol.1 No.1

        Conventional method of generating meteorological surfaces over geographic areas often neglects the elevation effect which is considered to be a single most important control over local climate. Deviation of the estimates may exrled practical limits at some areas with complex toprlgraphy. A digital map featuring coordinates and elevation data of 72 weather stations in Korea were joined with hourly weather(trmperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed) observations at the stations by using a geographic information system software. An inverse distanre weighted interpolation was done on the point features to generate prim-itive meteorological and elevation surface grids consisting of 430×600 cells, respectively. Elevation difference at each cell between the United States Geological Survey's 1 km digital elevation model and this virtual ele-vation surface was calculated. Known relationships between meteorological elements and the elevation differ-ence were used to derive "correction grids" representing the potential effects of elevation difference at each grid cell. The correction grids were added or multiplied to the primitive meteorological surfaces to obtain ele-vation-corrected estimates for corresponding elements. This srheme was applied to hourly data of 27 March 1998 to generate the elevation-corrected mrteorological surfaces. Observed data of 350 automated weather sta-tions were used to partially validate the accuracy of the results. This simple scheme sHelved a feasibility of a near-real time generation of hourly meteorological surfaces for temperature and rainfall with an affordable error range.

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