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        • KCI등재

          GIS 공간분석 기술을 이용한 국내 고병원성 조류인플루엔자 발생 고위험지역 분류

          박선일,박선일,정원화,이광녕 한국임상수의학회 2019 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.36 No.1

          Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is among the top infectious disease priorities in Korea and the leading cause of economic loss in relevant poultry industry. An understanding of the spatial epidemiology of HPAI outbreak is essential in assessing and managing the risk of the infection. Though previous studies have reported the majority of outbreaks occurred clustered in what are preferred to as densely populated poultry regions, especially in southwest coast of Korea, little is known about the spatial distribution of risk areas vulnerable to HPAI occurrence based on geographic information system (GIS). The main aim of the present study was to develop a GIS-based risk index model for defining potential high-risk areas of HPAI outbreaks and to explore spatial distribution in relative risk index for each 252 Si-Gun-Gu (administrative unit) in Korea. The risk index was derived incorporating seven GIS database associated with risk factors of HPAI in a standardized five-score scale. Scale 1 and 5 for each database represent the lowest and the highest risk of HPAI respectively. Our model showed that Jeollabuk-do, Chungcheongnamdo, Jeollanam-do and Chungcheongbuk-do regions will have the highest relative risk from HPAI. Areas with risk index value over 4.0 were Naju, Jeongeup, Anseong, Cheonan, Kochang, Iksan, Kyeongju and Kimje, indicating that Korea is at risk of HPAI introduction. Management and control of HPAI becomes difficult once the virus are established in domestic poultry populations; therefore, early detection and development of nationwide monitoring system through targeted surveillance of high-risk spots are priorities for preventing the future outbreaks.

        • KCI등재

          돼지생식기호흡기증후군(PRRS) 바이러스 감염 항체 검출 ELISA 상용 키트의 정확도 비교

          박선일,이승환,박경애,Pak,,Son-Il,Lee,,Seung-Hwan,Park,,Kyung-Ae 한국임상수의학회 2016 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.33 No.2

          More than 20 years after the first report of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) in Korea, the disease is still having major impact on domestic pig health and relevant industries. Although ELISA tests are commonly used by veterinarians to guide herd management, data on diagnostic performance of the test in field settings are very limited. The objective of this study was to evaluate two commercially available PRRSV ELISA (IDEXX PRRS X3 ELISA and Bionote PRRSV ELISA 4.0) to detect antibodies against PRRSV on serum samples. To this end, a total of 1,108 sera were recruited from 35 swine farms located in Gyeonggi province and tested at the Gyeonggi Province Veterinary Service Center. All tests were performed according to the manufacturer's instructions, by laboratory technicians who routinely perform PRRS testing on blood samples. Samples were collected from two sources of swine populations with different PRRS prevalence; 60 samples (5.4%) were originated from breeding farms and the remaining 1,048 samples (94.6%) were from farrow-to-finish farms. We applied Bayesian latent class model (LCM) for two-tests in the two-population when the accuracy of the gold standard is not available. The model estimated that Bionote ELISA was a bit more specific but slightly less sensitive. The estimated sensitivity and specificity of the IDEXX ELISA were 99.8% (95% CI 98.1-100%) and 86.4% (95% CI 81.4-96.5%), respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for Bionote kit were 98.7% (95% CI 92.8-100%), 89.8% (95% CI 86.2-93.1%), 93.8% (95% CI 91.5-96.0%), and 97.8% (95% CI 87.1-100%), respectively. Based on the Bayesian 95% credible intervals, the sensitivity and specificity of the two ELISAs were not significantly different each other when assuming that two kits were imperfect, indicating that two kits performed equally well in terms of sensitivity and specificity in our filed setting.

        • 간호대학생이 지각한 학습태도,자기효능감 및 자기개발의지의 관계

          박선일,이경미 한국상담심리치료학회 2012 한국상담심리치료학회지 Vol.3 No.1

          '스콜라' 이용 시 소속기관이 구독 중이 아닌 경우, 오후 4시부터 익일 오전 7시까지 원문보기가 가능합니다.

          본 연구는 간호대학생이 지각한 학습태도, 자기효능감 및 자기개발의지를 확인함으로써 각 개념간 의 관계를 평가하여 학습태도, 자기효능감 및 자기개발의지의 관련성을 검증하였다. 학습태도, 자기 효능감 및 자기개발의지는 학습태도가 좋을수록 자기효능감(r=.657, p〈.001)과 자기개발의지(r=660, p=<.001)가 높아졌으며, 자기효능감이 높아질수록 자기개발의지(r=.671, p<.001)가 높아지는 것으로 나타나 순상관 관계가 있었다. 간호대학생이 본연의 임무를 성실히 수행하는 좋은 간호사가 되기 위 해 긍정적인 학습태도를 형성할 수 있는 교육적 방안을 모색해야 되며, 자기효능감과 자기개발의지 를 높일 수 있는 프로그램 개발이 필요하다.

        • KCI등재

          부분예산분석을 이용한 오제스키병 발생 농가의 경제적 손실 추정

          박선일,박최규,문운경,윤하정,이병용,이상진 대한수의학회 2009 大韓獸醫學會誌 Vol.49 No.4

          '스콜라' 이용 시 소속기관이 구독 중이 아닌 경우, 오후 4시부터 익일 오전 7시까지 원문보기가 가능합니다.

          Aujeszky`s disease (AD) is a respiratory, infectious viral illness associated with high mortality, especially in neonatal piglets and has frequently been considered an economically important disease in many endemic countries. Although AD is still occurring in a geographically defined region in Korea, little attention has been paid to the economics of AD. In this study, partial budget technique was used to develop a simulation model to measure financial losses following the disease epidemic in a swine operation utilizing stochastic or deterministic parameters from the literatures and the index case herd of AD occurred in 2005, where available and applicable. For the infected case herd with a 12500-pig, the total economic loss for this operation was estimated to be about 199 million Korean won (95% confidence interval [CI] 148,645,000-250,741,000). Given net loss due to death of a pig at sow level was 119,000 won, total loss for the case herd with 1200 sows accounted for 143 million won (95% CI 92,599,000-193,729,000). The net loss of the death of one pig at growing and fattening level resulted in loss of 46,000 won (95% CI 40,000-53,000) and 126,000 won (95% CI 122,000-131,000), respectively. Taking into account for the number of pigs raised in the case herd, total loss amounted to 8 million won (95% CI 7,167,000-9,347,000) and 12 million won (95% CI 11,959,000-12,891,000), for growers and fatteners, respectively, assuming 63% of saved feed intake when a pig dies halfway through the respective period. Under the model`s assumptions, suckling pig mortality was the major factors of loss in estimating the economic consequences (approximately 71.8% of the total loss). The high economic losses of a herd infected with AD suggest that the effective and region-specific control measures should be implemented in disease endemic foci.

        • KCI등재

          추백리-가금티푸스의 혈청학적 모니터링 계획수립을 위한 표본크기

          박선일,박최규 대한수의학회 2008 大韓獸醫學會誌 Vol.48 No.4

          '스콜라' 이용 시 소속기관이 구독 중이 아닌 경우, 오후 4시부터 익일 오전 7시까지 원문보기가 가능합니다.

          The objective of this study was to determine appropriate sample size that simulated different assumptions for diagnostic test characteristics and true prevalences when designing serological surveillance plan for pullorum disease and fowl typhoid in domestic poultry production. The number of flocks and total number of chickens to be sampled was obtained to provide 95% confidence of detecting at least one infected flock, taking imperfect diagnostic tests into account. Due to lack of reliable data, within infected flock prevalence (WFP) was assumed to follow minimum 1%, most likely 5% and maximum 9% and true flock prevalence of 0.1%, 0.5% and 1% in order. Sensitivity were modeled using the Pert distribution: minimum 75%, most likely 80% and maximum 90% for plate agglutination test and 80%, 85%, and 90% for ELISA test. Similarly, the specificity was modeled 85%, 90%, 95% for plate agglutination test and 90%, 95%, 99% for ELISA test. In accordance with the current regulation, flock-level test characteristics calculated assuming that 30 samples are taken from per flock. The model showed that the current 112,000 annual number of testing plan which is based on random selection of flocks is far beyond the sample size estimated in this study. The sample size was further reduced with increased sensitivity and specificity of the test and decreased WFP. The effect of increasing samples per flock on total sample size to be sampled and optimal combination of sensitivity and specificity of the test for the purpose of the surveillance is discussed regarding cost.

        • KCI등재

          진단검사의 특성 평가를 위한 Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) 곡선의 활용

          박선일,오태호,Pak,,Son-Il,Oh,,Tae-Ho 한국임상수의학회 2016 한국임상수의학회지 Vol.33 No.2

          In the field of clinical medicine, diagnostic accuracy studies refer to the degree of agreement between the index test and the reference standard for the discriminatory ability to identify a target disorder of interest in a patient. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve offers a graphical display the trade-off between sensitivity and specificity at each cutoff for a diagnostic test and is useful in assigning the best cutoff for clinical use. In this end, the ROC curve analysis is a useful tool for estimating and comparing the accuracy of competing diagnostic tests. This paper reviews briefly the measures of diagnostic accuracy such as sensitivity, specificity, and area under the ROC curve (AUC) that is a summary measure for diagnostic accuracy across the spectrum of test results. In addition, the methods of creating an ROC curve in single diagnostic test with five-category discrete scale for disease classification from healthy individuals, meaningful interpretation of the AUC, and the applications of ROC methodology in clinical medicine to determine the optimal cutoff values have been discussed using a hypothetical example as an illustration.

        • 의학적 진단에서 ROC 곡선의 활용

          박선일 대한수의사회 2000 대한수의사회지 Vol.36 No.2

          의학적 진단에서 검사결과가 연속형으로 측정되는 예는 매우 많다. 예를 들어 ELISA검사, 혈청화학적 검사, 방사선 검사 (이 경우에는 음성, 의양성, 양성등의 척도로 표현될 수 있음) 등에서는 적절한 기준을 설정한 후 이 기준점을 근거로 양성과 음성으로 판정하게 된다. 여기에서 한 가지 문제는 기준점 설정에 있다. 소위 정상 혹은 참고범위 (normal or reference range)가 분명히 있는 경우라고 실제 판정에 있어서는 질별이 없음에도 불구하고 검사결과 질병이 있는 것으로 판정할 오류 (혹은 그 반대)가 분명히 존재한다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 상황에서 접근할 수 있는 한가지 방법인 ROC 곡선에 대하여 설명하고자 한다.

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