북한의 딜레마와 한반도 통일 2030

구본학(具本學)(KOO Bonhak) 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2019 신아세아 Vol.26 No.3

본 논문의 목적은 현재 북한의 대내외 환경에 대한 평가를 바탕으로 김정은 체제가 직면해 있는 문제점들을 분석하고, 핵 포기와 핵 보유를 둘러싼 김정은의 딜레마를 비교평가하며, 2030년경 한반도 통일환경 전망을 통해 우리의 대북정책을 제시하는데 있다. 2030년 경 김정은 체제의 대내외 여건과 한반도를 둘러싼 안보환경을 고려할 때 김정은 체제는 더욱 공고화될 것이며, 북한은 핵을 보유한 채 미국과의 관계정상화를 위해 대화를 추구하지만, 미국은 핵을 포기하지 않는 북한에 대해 경제제재를 지속할 것으로 예상된다. 이로 인해, 경제발전을 약속한 김정은의 “새로운 전략적 노선”은 실패할 가능성이 높다. 미국의 해외개입 의지가 갈수록 약화되는 상황에서 전작권 전환과 방위비분담금 압박으로 인해 한미동맹은 약화 추세에 있다. 북한의 핵과 미사일 및 새로운 재래식 전략무기 개발로 인해 증가되는 안보위협에도 불구하고 신세대 장병들을 비롯한 우리 국민들의 안보의식은 현재보다 더욱 약화될 것이다. 따라서, 2030년 경 한반도 통일환경은 현재보다 더욱 불리하게 전개될 것으로 예상된다. 이러한 한반도 안보환경을 고려할 때, 우리의 안보 및 대북정책은 첫째, 북한 비핵화에 정책의 최우선순위를 두고 원칙적․포괄적 합의를 추진해야 한다. 둘째, 원칙적․포괄적 합의를 바탕으로 점진적․단계적 비핵화를 이행해 나가야 한다. 셋째, 북한 비핵화와 한반도 평화체제를 연계한 로드맵을 구축해야 한다. 넷째, 북한의 도발에 대비하여 한미동맹을 강화해야 한다. 다섯째, 북한의 전략무기를 무력화할 수 있는 킬체인, 한국형미사일방어체계 및 대량응징보복전략을 조기에 완성해야 한다. 여섯째, 북한이 핵을 스스로 포기하도록 북한 민주화 프로그램을 적극적으로 추진하고 지원해야 한다. This paper discusses three important issues for the Korean Peninsula and evaluates the unification environment of the peninsula in 2030. First, it assesses the political and economic problems of the Kim Jong-un regime. Second, it analyzes Kim Jong-un’s dilemma as he decides whether to give up his nuclear weapons program. Third, it offers a South Korea policy toward North Korea based on the unification environment on the Korean Peninsula by 2030. North Korea continues to pursue dialogue with the US for diplomatic normalization. The US, however, will maintain sanctions against North Korea and refuse to recognize North Korea unless it abandons nuclear and long-range missile programs. Therefore, “the new strategic guideline” proposed by Kim Jong-un is doomed to fail. The US is losing its desire for overseas engagement, especially in the Asia- Pacific region. OPCON transfer to the South Korean military will be completed in two or three years. The US continues to pressure South Korea to increase defense burden sharing. In these circumstances, the ROK-US alliance will slowly and steadily deteriorate. Security concerns of next-generation soldiers and the South Korean public will decrease gradually. Therefore, the unification environment by 2030 will be much more unfavorable to South Korea than it is now. To achieve the peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsula, the paper suggests: first, South Korea and the US put their first policy priority on denuclearization of North Korea; second, they have to implement denuclearization measures with step-by-step efforts; third, they must prepare a roadmap for a peace system on the peninsula related to denuclearization of North Korea; fourth, they should strengthen the alliance system; fifth, South Korea must increase military preparedness against North Korea by completing as early as possible such military programs as the Kill-chain, KAMD, and KMPR; finally, South Korea must support democratization of North Korea to get it to abandon its nuclear program by itself.

한국 국내정치가 한·미/한·중관계에 미치는 영향 : 20대 대선과 한국의 안보여론

구본학(Bonhak Koo)(具本學) 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2021 신아세아 Vol.28 No.4

The majority of South Koreans hold conservative positions on foreign policy and security issues. Public opinion on security issues, however, does not have significant impact on foreign policy making. Instead, the perceptions of the president and his inner circle have a decisive impact. With just a couple of months until the 20th presidential election scheduled for March 2022, the two presidential candidates have quite different perceptions of foreign and security policy issues. Mr. Lee Jae-myung, candidate of the ruling Democratic Party (DP), has a friendly view of North Korea, but has negative perceptions of the US and the ROK-US alliance. Mr. Yoon Suk-yeol, candidate of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP), has a negative perception of North Korea, and friendly views of the US and the ROK-US alliance. Given the continued competition and rivalry between the US and China since the beginning of the 21st century, the two countries have pressured neighboring countries to take their side. South Korea has been sandwiched between the US and China. Mr. Lee, if he wins, will tilt toward China and the South Korea-US relationship will become estranged. Mr. Yoon, if he wins the election, will further strengthen the ROK-US alliance. Unless the North Korean nuclear and missile threat disappear, South Korea, for its survival, must strengthen the ROK-US alliance, and find an effective way to reduce its economic dependence on China.

북핵 위협과 한반도 군비통제의 과제

구본학(KOO Bonhak)(具本學) 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2017 신아세아 Vol.24 No.1

북한의 5차 핵실험과 장거리미사일 시험발사, 그리고 잠수함발사탄도미사일 시험발사 등으로 김정은체제 출범 이후 남북간 군사긴장은 지속적으로 고조되어 왔다. 미국 조야에서는 대북 선제타격론과 대화론이 동시에 대두되고 있으며, 국내에서는 핵무장론과 전술핵 재배치론이 논의된 바 있다. 제1차 남북정상회담 이후 상호 비방 중지, 휴전선 일대 선전물 철거, 남북 철도 및 도로 연결사업, 서해상 우발적 충돌 방지 등 군비통제를 위한 첫단계라고 할 수 있는 신뢰구축 조치들이 실시되었다. 그러나 북한의 서해 해상분계선(NLL: Northern Limit Line)에서의 도발로 인한 3차례의 교전과 핵실험 및 미사일 시험발사 등으로 실질적 군비통제는 추진되지 못했다. 북한은 정전협정 체결 직후부터 외국군대의 철수와 10만명 이하로 병력감축을 주장하는 등 남북 군비통제에 적극적인 입장을 취했다. 주한미군 철수와 한미동맹 약화, 그리고 한국의 군사력 현대화를 저지시키려는 의도 하에 추진된 것이다. 반면, 한국은 1980년대 초까지도 군비통제에 소극적이거나 부정적인 태도를 취했다. 주한미군은 북한의 도발을 억제하는 데 있어서 핵심적인 역할을 수행하고 있었으며, 북한에 비해 열세에 있는 군사력의 균형을 유지하기 위해서는 군사력 증강이 불가피하기 때문이었다. 1992년 체결된 남북기본합의서는 상호 무력불사용, 불가침 및 신뢰구축 등 군비통제에 관한 많은 내용을 포함하고 있다. 그러나 북한 핵문제 등장으로 합의는 이행되지 못했다. 김대중 정부 들어서 남북 정상회담이 성사되면서 상호 비방 중지 등 신뢰구축 조치들이 시행되었지만 북한의 핵개발과 NLL도발로 인해 본격적인 군비통제 조치는 추진되지 못했다. 남북한의 지정학적 위치로 인한 강대국간의 갈등 구조, 전쟁의 경험으로 인한 뿌리 깊은 불신, 남북한의 이념적 갈등과 대립, 군비통제에 대한 상이한 인식 등은 남북 군비통제에 근본적인 한계로 작용한다. 그럼에도 불구하고 북한 핵문제의 해결을 전제로 상호 신뢰를 구축한 후, 위험감소 조치와 군비축소 조치를 점진적이며 단계적으로 추진하면서 북한을 개혁과 개방으로 변화시켜 나갈 경우, 현 정전체제를 평화체제로 전환할 수 있을 것이며 궁극적인 한반도 평화통일도 가능하게 될 것이다 Military tension on the Korean peninsula has been aggravated as a result of the North’s nuclear explosions and test-firing of missiles, including submarine-launched ballistic missiles in 2016. Politicians and experts in Washington D.C. have simultaneously discussed a US-North Korea peace treaty and a preemptive strike against the North. Politicians, journalists, and academicians in Seoul had called on South Korea to develop its own nuclear weapons or for the US to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons to the USFK. At the first North-South Summit in June 2000, the two Koreas agreed on suspension of mutual vilification, removal of propaganda materials near the DMZ, the linkage of disconnected railroad and roads, and prevention of accidental armed conflict as a first step toward North-South confidence building. Arms control on the peninsula failed to move forward due to North Korea’s naval provocations near the NLL (Northern Limit Line), nuclear tests, and tests of long-range missiles. North Korea maintained an active stance toward arms control on the peninsula immediately after the armistice agreement by calling for withdrawal of foreign troops from the peninsula and the reduction of military personnel to under 100,000. The North aimed to weaken the ROK-US alliance, to withdraw USFK, and to prevent modernization of the South Korean armed forces. South Korea maintained a negative stance toward arms control on the peninsula because the USFK was a cornerstone of deterrence of the North and the South needed to build up its forces, which were inferior to the North Korean People s Army, as quickly as possible. The North-South Basic Agreement of 1992 contains arms control measures such as non-use of armed forces against each other, non-aggression toward each other, and confidence building measures. However, the Basic Agreement failed to be implemented due to the North s nuclear program and armed provocations. There are fundamental obstacles to arms control on the Korean peninsula: great power rivalry and competition; deep-rooted mistrust and ideological confrontation between the two Koreas; and differing perceptions of arms control. As a precondition to arms control on the peninsula, North Korea must abandon its nuclear weapons and missile program. Then, the North and the South must make every effort toward arms control by implementing confidence building measures, threat reduction measures and arms reduction measures in a step-by-step manner for peace and unification of the peninsula.

공원 및 공원시설 BF인증 평가지표 분석을 통한 개선방향 도출 연구

김미혜,구본학,Kim, Mi Hye,Koo, Bonhak 한국조경학회 2022 韓國造景學會誌 Vol.50 No.5

According to the revision of the Convenience Act for Persons with Disabilities, parks and park facilities where the first park development plan is established after December 4, 2021 are mandatory, and parks must be equipped with convenience facilities for the disabled. Hence, this study aims to derive the improvements of the park evaluation index by analyzing the park certification evaluation index, the building certification evaluation index of park facilities, and the evaluation reports of the current certification status cases. As a research method, first, the certification of parks and park facilities were compared and reviewed with the Park Green Act, and differences in the certification process and certification performance were compared and analyzed. Second, differences and common items were derived by analyzing barrier free (BF)-certification evaluation indicators for parks and buildings. Third, improvement plans were derived after analyzing differences and problems in 4 BF-certified parks and four building certification cases of park facilities in certified parks, focusing on the self-evaluation report and examination results. As a result of analyzing the park and building evaluation indicators, the items for which the evaluation purpose, evaluation method, and evaluation items were commonly applied to 7 access roads for each facility, 5 parking areas for the disabled, 2 guide facilities for information facilities, 14 in 5 categories of sanitation facilities, and 1 for other facilities. In the case of sanitation facilities, there is no case where it was evaluated as a park. If the park does not have an attached toilet, the park is certified as a building. Hence, it would be essential to establish the concept of an attached toilet and discuss the application of the evaluation index on the park sanitation facility. The score of buildings in parks and park facilities was lower than that of the self-evaluation results, and the certification grades of buildings declined in three cases. The items with the highest standard deviation were BF walking continuity for parks and the path to the main entrance among access roads for buildings. As a result of analyzing the park and building evaluation results of 19 common evaluation items except for sanitary facilities, the difference in the grades of the evaluation items for each case site except for one item appeared. Therefore, applying common detailed calculation criteria for items evaluated in common with parks and buildings is needed. Since sanitation facilities have no cases of park certification and are not certified as buildings, it is essential to establish the concept of attached toilets and discuss the application of park sanitation evaluation indicators. It is necessary to develop an evaluation index suitable for the characteristics of the park, such as adjusting the items that are not evaluated in parks and establishing an evaluation index considering the ones of parks. It expects that this study would be used as primary data for improving park certification indicators.

탄소흡수원으로서의 묵논습지 변화와 지형수문 환경 분석

박미옥,홍승원,구본학,Miok, Park,Sungwon, Hong,Bonhak, Koo 한국토지주택공사 토지주택연구원 2023 LHI journal of land, housing, and urban affairs Vol.14 No.1

The study aims to provide an academic basis for the preservation and restoration of abandoned paddy wetland and the enhancement of its carbon accumulation function. First, the temporal change of the wetlands was analysed, and a typological classification system for wetlands was attempted with the goal of carbon reduction. The types of wetland were classified based on three variables: hydrological environment, vegetation, and carbon accumulation, with a special attention on the function of carbon accumulation. The types of abandoned paddy wetlands were classified into 12 categories based on hydrologic variables- either high or low levels of water inflow potential-, vegetation variables with either dominance of aquatic plants or terrestrial plants, and three carbon accumulation variables including organic matter production, soil organic carbon accumulation, and decomposition. It was found that the development period of abandoned paddy analyzed with aerial photographs provided by the National Geographic Information Institute happened between 2010 and 2015. In the case of the wetland in Daejeon 1 (DJMN01) farming stopped by 1990 and it appeared to be a similar structure to natural wetlands after 2010 . Over the past 40 years the abandoned paddy wetland changed to a high proportion of forests and agricultural lands. As time went by, such forests and agricultural lands tended to decrease rapidly and the lands were covered by artificial grass and other types of forests.

저수지 수변 식생 건강성 평가

김형대 ( Kim Hyoungdae ),구본학 ( Koo Bonhak ) 한국환경복원기술학회(구 한국환경복원녹화기술학회) 2016 한국환경복원기술학회지 Vol.19 No.6

This study was carried out to assess the riparian vegetation health in the fluctuation area and vicinity of reservoirs. The results of this study could be a basic data to improve the ecological function and establish green-network of waterside ecosystem. The study site is Daecheong lake reservoirs which the representative landscape of Geum river and with great number of visitors near metropolitan city. The 6 survey plots of 2 survey area were selected, survey area 1 had 4 survey plots and survey area 2 had 2 survey plots, and to compare the study results 4 control plots were selected in Gyeongcheon reservoir. The main dominant specie of survey sites was Salix koreensis in tree and subtree layer, were Salix koreensis and Salix glandulosa. in shrub layer. 2 survey plots of Samjeongdong and Kyeongcheon reservoir were assessed as `Good`, 2 survey plots of chudong were assessed as `Fair` in vegetation health assessment. In the fluctuation area from flood water level to low water level, 58 populations of Salix koreensis were found in survey sites and Salix koreensis, Salix glandulosa and Acer tataricum subsp. ginale were found in control sites. The most adequate species at the condition affected by inundation impacts would be Salix koreensis and Salix glandulosa was more healthy at the area less affected by inundation. This study was carried out the vegetation health assessment on Daecheong reservoir which has been advanced natural succession for more than 30 years after the construction. Further, it should carry continuously out the research on the planting model of the waterside ecosystem for ecological restoration.