기후변화에 따른 국가 리스크 정량화 연구(Ⅲ) 연안시스템을 중심으로

조광우 ( Kwangwoo Cho ),이해미,박주형,서진성,박선영 한국환경정책평가연구원 2016 사업보고서 Vol.2016 No.-

본 연구는 기후변화에 따른 인간시스템의 사회·경제적 영향의 리스크를 정량적으로 평가하는 체계 구축을 통하여 기후변화 적응의 과학적 기반 구축 및 국가 기후변화 적응정책 지원을 목적으로 하고 있으며, 3차년도(2016년)에는 우리나라의 사례지역(목포, 통영, 마산)을 대상으로 연안시스템에 대한 기후변화 리스크의 정량적 평가를 수행하였다. 산업혁명 이후 시작된 기후변화는 빠른 속도로 진행되었으며, 그로 인해 기존의 기후에 기초한 연안시스템은 국내·외적으로 높은 취약성을 드러내고 있다. 특히 극단적 해수면 상승 영향 분석을 통한 우리나라 연안시스템의 잠재적 리스크는 매우 높게 나타났다. 본 연구에서 제시한 정량적 리스크 체계는 “① 기후변화 확률함수 개발 → ② 영향함수 산출 → ③ 피해함수 산출 → ④ 리스크 정량화 → ⑤ 취약 리스크 관리”의 모델이며, 이들 모델 체계를 우리나라 연안도시 시스템(목포, 통영, 마산)에 적용한 결과 이들 시스템은 현재의 기후 기준에도 취약하며 미래 기후변화로 그 취약성이 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 이들 취약성은 매립을 통한 도시 조성과 밀접한 관련이 있은 것으로 파악되었으며 리스크의 크기는 목포, 마산, 통영 순으로 나타났다. 영향함수 도출은 폭풍해일에 의한 범람모의에 널리 적용되고 있는 ADCIRC ver49.21과 미국 공병단에서 개발하여 운용 중인 Coastal Modeling System(CMS) 모델을 이용하였다. 영향함수 도출에 앞서 ADCIRC 모델을 이용하여 매미(0314) 태풍 내습 시 발생한 통영지역의 범람현상을 재현하였으며, CMS 모델의 경우 마산만 해역 일대의 조위와 파랑의 재현성을 평가하는 등 결과의 신뢰성 확보를 위해 노력하였다. 아울러 목포와 통영 지역은 약최고고조위에서 해수면 상승(0m∼2m, 5cm 간격)에 따른 현재 상태, 50년 빈도, 100년 빈도 태풍을 적용하였으며, 마산 지역은 약최고고조위에서 해수면 상승(0m∼2m, 10cm 간격)에 따른 100년 빈도 태풍을 적용하여 각 사례지역의 영향평가를 위한 시나리오를 수립 하였다. 100년 빈도 태풍에 의한 모델 결과를 보면 목포 지역의 경우, 해수면 상승 0m의 시나리오에서 평균 침수심은 1.65m, 침수면적은 12.03km2로 평가되었다. 0m~2m까지 해수면 상승을 고려한 시나리오의 경우, 침수심과 침수면적은 선형적으로 증가되어 해수면이 2m 상승한 상황에서 평균 침수심은 3.29m로 분석되었으며, 14.85km2의 면적이 침수될 가능성이 있는 것으로 평가되었다. 통영 지역은 해수면이 2m 상승한 상황에서 평균 침수심은 2.04m, 침수 가능 면적은 1.37km2으로 나타났으며, 마산 지역의 경우는 동일한 해수면 상승 시나리오에서 평균 침수심은 3.04m, 침수 가능 면적은 10.17km2으로 나타났다. 이들 시스템의 범람 지역을 해당 지역의 고지도와 비교한 결과, 과거 매립지 저지대에 취약성이 집중되고 있어 우리나라 연안도시의 취약성 특성을 잘 나타내고 있다. 해수면 상승 및 빈도별 태풍시나리오에 따른 피해함수 평가를 위해 국내외 침수 피해추정방법 조사를 통하여 우리나라 실정에 부합하고 홍수피해 정량화에 적용된 바 있는 다차원 홍수피해 산정기법(MD-FDA: Multi-Dimensional Flood Damage Analysis)을 사례 지역에 적용하여 해수면 상승에 따른 현재 상태, 50년 빈도, 100년 빈도 태풍에 대한 피해액을 산정하였다. 해수면 상승에 따른 침수지역 현황은 0m에서 2m 상승 시까지 분석되었으며 100년 빈도의 태풍에 의한 피해규모를 보면, 목포 지역은 해수면 상승 0m의 시나리오에서 예상 침수 가구는 주택 1만 5,847호, 아파트 483동이고 예상 이재민 수는 3만 9,493명으로 분석되었다. 동일한 빈도에서 해수면 2m 상승 시 주택 1만 7,497호, 아파트 751동, 예상 이재민수 4만 4,132명으로 나타났다. 다차원 홍수피해 산정방법에 따른 총 피해액은 해수면 상승 시나리오 0m∼2m의 범위에서 12조 8,661억 원∼17조 5,503억 원으로 평가되었다. 통영지역의 총 피해액은 해수면 상승 시나리오 0m∼2m의 범위에서 6,864억 원∼2조 3,341억 원으로 평가되었으며, 마산 지역은 10조 5,033억 원∼14조 93억 원으로 평가되었다. 사례지역에 대한 피해특성을 비교·분석한 결과, 연안의 지리학적 특성과 연관성이 큰 것으로 보이며 매립 등으로 확장된 우리나라 해안도시의 특성을 잘 나타내고 있다. 우리나라 연안시스템은 현재의 이상기후에도 매우 취약한 특성을 나타내고 있어, 우리나라 전체 연안시스템에 대한 정량적 리스크 평가의 지속적인 확대 연구가 필요한 것으로 판단되며, 리스크 체계 발전 및 정착을 위한 기술적·제도적 노력이 요구된다. 연안시스템에 영향을 미치는 해양기후(해수면 상승, 파랑, 태풍 등), 강수 등에 대한 우리나라 고유의 국가 시나리오 개발 및 확률함수 산출과 연안시스템의 중요성을 고려하여 High 시나리오 개발이 필요하며, 연안시스템의 기후변화 위험, 노출, 취약성을 종합적으로 평가할 수 있는 영향 모델 개발, 특히 기후변화가 연안시스템의 기능과 경로에 미치는 영향을 평가할 수 있는 모델 개발을 통하여 구체적인 적응 대상을 도출하여야 한다. 아울러 우리나라 연안시스템에 적합한 피해산정 방법론 개발이 필요하며 이들 피해산정에는 재산, 인명 등과 같은 직접적인 피해 이외에도 다양한 경제적 손실에 대한 간접적인 피해도 포함되도록 하여야 한다. 본 연구의 정량적 리스크 결과는 해당 연안시스템의 취약성뿐만 아니라 적응 목표 설정, 시스템 간의 리스크 비교 등 정책적 활용도가 매우 높은 것으로 나타나는바, 우리나라 전체 연안에 대한 리스크 평가를 제안하며 기후변화의 불확실성을 고려한 주기적인 리스크 평가체계가 조속히 구축되어야 한다. 또한 효율적인 기후변화 리스크 관리를 위하여 연안의 자연시스템을 최대로 활용하는 새로운 적응 패러다임이 요구된다. 더불어 연안 취약지 개발 지양, 국가 예산 투입 사업에 대한 리스크 평가 실시, 피해발생 시 환경·사회·경제적 파급효과가 큰 시스템에 대한 High 시나리오 리스크 평가·관리 등이 요구된다. 국제사회 및 주요 국가의 리스크 체계 조사·분석 결과 적응 방향은 기후변화의 불확실성을 고려한 리스크 평가 및 관리를 지향하고 있으나 정성적인 측면에 머무르고 있어 본 연구는 선도적인 연구로 사료된다. 본 연구에서 도출된 정량적 기후변화 리스크 함수는 특정 시스템의 리스크 특성, 적응 방향 및 목표 설정뿐만 아니라 우리나라 연안시스템들의 상대적인 리스크 크기 등을 비교할 수 있어 적응 우선순위 설정에도 활용될 수 있을 것으로 예상된다. This study is aimed at establishing a scientific foundation for and to support policies on climate change adaptation by formulating a system for quantitative evaluation of the risks posed by human system`s socioeconomic effects in accordance with climate change. Accordingly, quantitative evaluation of climate change risks on the coastal system was executed for study regions in Korea (Mokpo, Tongyeong and Masan) in the 3rd year of our research(2016). Climate change which began in earnest since the Industrial Revolution has already progressed substantially. The existing climate-based coastal system has displayed high levels of vulnerability in Korea and around the world and the potential risks borne by Korea`s coastal system were found to be very high from the analysis of the effect of extreme sea level rise. The quantitative risk system proposed in this study is a model concerned with: ① development of a climate change probability function → ② computation of an effect function → ③ computation of a damage function → ④ quantification of risks → ⑤ management of vulnerability risk. By applying this model system to the coastal cities in Korea (Mokpo, Tongyeong and Masan), it was found that these systems are vulnerable even by the climate standards of the present time, and their vulnerability is projected to increase due to future climate change. These vulnerabilities were closely related to the fact that the citied were partially built on landfills, and Mokpo was found to bear the biggest risk, followed by Masan and Tongyeong. In order to derive the effect function, ADCIRC ver. 49.21, which is being widely used to simulate inundation due to typhoon surge and the Coastal Modeling System (CMS) model developed and operated by the US Army Corps of Engineers were used. Prior to the deducing the effects function, the inundation which occurred in Tongyeong due to Typhoon Maemi (0314) in 2003 was re-enacted by using the ADCIRC model. With the CMS model, we strived to ensure the reliability of the results by evaluating, among others, the reproducibility of the tidal levels and waves in the waters of Masan Bay. Moreover, the current state, 50-year frequency and 100-year frequency typhoons were applied to Mokpo and Tongyeon by presuming sea level rise at the approximately highest level of high tide (0 2m and 5cm intervals), while 100-year frequency typhoon was applied to Masan by presuming sea level rise at the approximately highest level of high tide (0 2m and 10cm intervals) in order to establish a scenario to evaluate the effects of each study region. In the results of the 100-year frequency typhoon model applied to Mokpo under the 0m sea level rise scenario, the average depth of inundation was evaluated as 1.65m and the inundated area as 12.03 ㎢. In the case of the scenario presuming sea level rises between 0~2m, the depth of inundation and size of inundated area increased linearly, that is, a sea level rise of 2m will inundate an area of 14.85km2, with the average inundation depth of 3.29m. When the sea level increases by 2m in Tongyeong, an area of 1.37km2 will be inundated, with the average inundation depth of 2.04m, while in Masan, such sea level rise will inundate 10.17km2 and the average inundation depth will amount to 3.04m. A comparison of the inundated regions in these systems with their antique map found that vulnerabilities are concentrated in the low-rise landfill areas of the past, thereby clearly illustrating the vulnerable characteristics of Korea`s coastal cities. After examining the flood damage estimation methods used at home and abroad to evaluate the damage function under various sea level rise and typhoon frequency scenarios, the effects of sea level rise under the current state, and the scale of damages incurred by the 50-year frequency and 100-year frequency typhoons were computed by applying the computation method of Multi-Dimensional Flood Damage Analysis (MD-FDA), which suits Korea`s actual situations and has been applied to quantifying flooding damages. We analyzed the damages to inundated regions by assuming sea level rises between 0m to 2m and found that when a 100-year frequency typhoon hits Mokpo and causes a 0m sea level rise, this will inundate 15,847 detached houses and 483 apartment buildings, with a total number of flood victims estimated at 39,493. If the sea level increases by 2m under the same frequency, 17,497 detached houses and 751 apartment buildings will be inundated, thereby generating a total of 44,132 flood victims. The total cost of damages inflicted by a sea level rise between 0m and 2m estimated using the MD-FDA stood at the range of 12.8661 trillion ~ 17.5503 trillion Korean Won (KRW). The total cost of damages to Tongyeong resulting from a sea level rise between 0m and 2m ranges between KRW 686.4 billion and KRW 2.3341 trillion, while such sea level increase will cost Masan between KRW 10.5033 trillion and KRW 14.0093 trillion. A comparative analysis of the characteristics of damages in the study regions found that there is a strong correlation with the geographical characteristics of the coastal line and illustrated the characteristics of Korea`s maritime cities that had been expanded with landfill and other methods. Korea`s coastal system also displays highly vulnerable characteristics even to the current climate abnormalities. Accordingly, the quantitative risk borne by the nation`s overall coastal system should consistently be evaluated by expanding the scope, while technological and systematic efforts should be made to further develop and promote Korea`s risk system. Korea`s unique national scenario and high scenario must be developed by considering the computation of probability function and importance of coastal system for maritime climate (sea level rise, waves, typhoons and others) and rainfall that impart effects on the coastal system. In addition, specific adaptation targets should be deduced by developing an impact model capable of comprehensively evaluating risks, exposure and vulnerabilities of the coastal system and in particular, a model that can evaluate how climate change influences the functions and routes of the coastal system. Furthermore, a damage computation methodology appropriate for Korea`s coastal system needs to be developed and such damage computation must include not only the direct damages such as properties and human casualties, but also the indirect damages that encompass a wide range of economic losses. The quantitative risks analyzed in this study can be very useful not only for studying the vulnerabilities of the corresponding coastal system but also for developing policies that define adaptation goals and compare risks between the systems. Therefore, we propose a risk evaluation of Korea`s overall coastal lines and swift enactment of a regular risk evaluation system that considers climate change uncertainties. In addition, a new adaptation paradigm that maximizes the use of coastal lines` natural system is required for an efficient management of climate change risks. Moreover, restricting the development of vulnerable areas along coastal lines, risk evaluation of government-funded projects, and risk evaluation and management under high scenario for systems that bring substantial environmental, social and economic ripple effects upon sustaining damage are required. While the international community and key countries based on risk systems investigation and analysis have taken a direction for adaptation that pursues risk assessment and management by reflecting climate change uncertainties, they are focused on quantitative aspects. Accordingly, this study is deemed to be a leading research as the quantitative climate change risk function deduced in this study is capable of comparing not only the risk characteristics, direction of adaptation and setting goals of a particular system but also the relative extents of the risks of Korea`s coastal systems. Therefore, the study is expected to contribute to setting the priorities among adaptation measures.

Integrated Risk Management Method Development for Multiple Aerospace Projects Using a Single Index Expression

Hyojung Ahn,Hongbae Kim,Han-Lim Choi 한국항공우주학회 2018 International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sc Vol.19 No.4

Aerospace industry is integrated with state-of-the-art technology but uncertainty is increasing due to the lack of accumulated data. In addition, projects at aerospace research and development institutions have become large and complex. Accordingly, the organization’s top level has recognized the importance of risk-informed decision-making and performed risk management to operate the organization successfully. However, it is difficult to set the priorities of risk treatment as a whole in the aspect of managing risks of the organization because each project may have a difference in methods for the risk identification, assessment and determining risk levels. Thus, it is required to develop a standardized and quantitative method that can integrate risks in the level of each project to identify the status of risk management intuitively at the top level for all projects performed by the organization. This paper presents an index-based scheme for an organization-level risk management. To obtain the organization-level risk index, the risk index of each project is summed up by applying the weighting factors representing the priority of the project in the organization, such as budget. The risk index of each project is calculated by summing the levels of the risks and applying the weight factor according to the target schedule. The risk level is determined by probability and severity of the risks, which are calculated according to the quantitative evaluation standard. Based on this method, a risk model(R-Model) is established and applied to a research institute by using real data for 3 years. By analyzing the trends of the index, it can be confirmed that R-Model helps intuitively identify risks and make decisions at the top level. This paper is significant in developing an index-based scheme for an organization-level risk management and validating the proposed scheme through a case study on real projects of a major aerospace research institute.

The Study on Bank Risk Level Influenced by Economic Shocks

서지용 한국자료분석학회 2015 Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society Vol.17 No.1

This study examines empirically the relationship between the bank risk level and economic shock. This study uses rolling regression model to derive the systematic risk based on the Haq, Heaney (2009) and adopt the panel data models to confirm risk factor to bank risk level. As the independent variables, the proxy variables representing financial market condition, credit level, and liquidity level are adopted in this study. As the proxy variables for financial market variables, the level of interest rate, stock market price, and foreign exchange rate between Korean won and U. S. dollar are used. Bounced rate and the status of business cycle are regarded as the proxy variables for credit level. In addition, deposit turn over rate and stock market trading value are adopted as the liquidity level. Main test results are as follows. First, high level of interest rate and low level of foreign exchange rate lead to reducing bank's systematic risk level which is transferred to other banks. This evidence is line with Choi, Elyasiani, Kopecky (1992) and Delis, Kouretas (2011). Second, credit level also plays a significant role in determining the bank risk. This results support the Nijskens, Wagner (2011). Third, stock market liquidity is risk factor affecting bank risk. Thus, the higher trading amounts in the stock market is, the more increase the bank risk is.

서술 수준과 미디어 형식이 위험에 대한 비개인적 효과에 미치는 영향

이민영 사이버커뮤니케이션학회 2023 사이버 커뮤니케이션 학보 Vol.40 No.1

In this study, the impact of risk messages transmitted through different communication channels on societal and individual-level risk judgments were explored to enhance understanding of the process of impersonal effect of risk. To this end, an experiment was conducted on students at a university in Seoul, and the message narrative level (abstract vs. specific description) and the format of the media (text vs. text + photo) on societal and individual-level risk judgment, and response behavioral intentions to risk were investigated. Results Show that subjects exposed to media risk information formed a higher risk judgment for others, that is, societal level risk judgment, than themselves. In addition, the main effect of the narrative level and media format was not significant, but their interaction had a significant effect on societal-level risk judgment, individual-level risk judgment, and defensive behavior intention. 본 연구에서는 비개인적 효과의 발생 과정에 대한 이해를 높이고자 서로 다른형태의 미디어를 통해 전달되는 위험 메시지가 사회수준과 개인수준 위험판단에 미치는 영향을 탐구했다. 이를 위해 서울 시내 한 대학의 학생들을 대상으로 실험을 진행하여 메시지 서술 수준(추상적 vs. 구체적 서술)과 미디어의 형식(문자 vs. 문자+사진)이 사회수준과 개인수준 위험판단, 그리고 위험에 대한대응 행동의도에 미치는 영향을 조사했다. 연구결과, 피험자들은 위험정보를접하고 개인 자신보다는 타인에 대한 사회수준 위험을 더욱 높게 판단했다. 또한 서술 수준과 미디어 형식의 주효과는 유의미하지 않았지만 이들의 상호작용은 사회수준 위험판단, 개인수준 위험판단, 그리고 방어 행동의도에 모두 유의미한 영향을 주었다. 이러한 결과는 메시지 서술방식에 더해 미디어의 특성 역시 비개인적 효과의 원인으로 작용할 가능성이 있음을 보여준다.

공중의 감염병 위험인식 수준이 예방행위 의도에 미치는 영향 : 자기 효능감·반응 효능감·집단 효능감의 조절효과 분석

진범섭 한국소통학회 2021 한국소통학보 Vol.20 No.1

헬스커뮤니케이션에서 위험인식 및 효능감은 예방행동을 결정짓는 주요 개념들이다. 본 연구에서는 위험인식의 두 가지 수준을 분류하여 각 위험인식이 효능감 변인들의 수 준에 따라 예방행위 의도에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지를 살펴보았다. 기존의 연구들은 위험 인식을 둘러싼 미디어·커뮤니케이션의 내용, 유형, 프로그램 등에 초점을 두었다. 그러 나 본 연구는 결핵에 대한 개인적·사회적 수준의 위험인식이 예방행동 의도에 끼치는 영향력이 개인적·집단적 수준의 효능감에 의해 조절되는지를 검증하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 편의표집된 대학생들을 대상으로 설문조사를 실시하였다. 분석 결과를 통해 사회적 수준의 결핵 위험인식이 개인적 수준의 결핵 위험인식보다 예방행위 의도에 더 큰 영향 력을 확인하였으며, 자기·반응집단 효능감 모두 예방행위 의도에 유의미한 영향력을 입 증하였다. 위계적 다중조절회귀분석을 실시하여 예방행위 의도에 대하여 개인적 수준의 위험인식이 미치는 영향력은 자기·반응 효능감에 조절되지 못함을 검증하였다. 그러나 예방행위 의도에 사회적 수준의 위험인식이 미치는 영향은 집단 효능감에 의해 조절되는 경향을 밝혔다. 즉, 집단 효능감이 높은 집단은 그렇지 못한 집단보다 사회적 수준의 위 험인식이 예방행위 의도에 더욱 영향을 끼칠 수 있다. 본 연구의 이론적·실무적 시사점 은 헬스커뮤니케이션 학자들과 실무가들이 감염병 예방 캠페인 전략 개발에 위험인식 및 효능감을 보다 효과적으로 사용해야 한다는 사실이다. 특히, 위험인식의 개인적·사회적 수준을 이해함으로써 각 수준에 맞는 캠페인 타겟층의 효능감을 파악해야 할 것이다. In health communication research perceived risk and efficacy beliefs are thought to be significant concepts. This study aimed to explore whether risk perceptions could affect preventive behavioral intent according to the levels of efficacy beliefs variables by categorizing risk perceptions into the personal vs societal level. Past research focused on the contents, types, and programs of media and communication regarding risk perception. However, the study examined whether the personal- and societal-level risk perceptions of TB on preventive behavioral intent could be moderated by the personal and collective level of efficacy beliefs. To this end the study used a survey method with a convenience sample of undergraduate students in Korea. Results found that the effect of societal-level risk perception on the TB preventive behavioral intent would be more likely to occur than the personal-level risk perception, while both self and response efficacy beliefs significantly affected the behavioral intent. Moreover, hierarchical moderated multiple regression analyses revealed that the impact of personal-level risk perception on the behavioral intent was not moderated by self and response efficacy, whereas the impact of societal-level risk perception was significantly moderated by collective efficacy. That is, for those with high perceived collective efficacy, the societal-level risk perception is more likely to affect the preventive behavioral intent, compared to those with low perceived collective efficacy. The study suggests theoretical and practical implications that health communication scholars and practitioners should more effectively utilize risk perceptions and efficacy beliefs to develop infectious diseases prevention campaign strategies. In particular, they need to figure out the proper level of efficacy beliefs of campaign target audiences by identifying the personal- and societal-level risk perception.

항만 물류 생산성 향상을 위한 안전사고의 위험성 분석 - 항만 컨테이너 터미널운영사의 하역사고 사례를 중심으로 -

김동진 ( Dong-jin Kim ) 한국생산성학회 2016 生産性論集 Vol.30 No.4

In this study, a fuzzy inference method is applied to improve the result of accident risk when an uncertainty is involved in data. In Korea, ports are taking care of 99% of the total volume of international trade, where accidents related to cargoes loading/unloading activities happen. Though the accident rate is lower than other logistics industries, the consequence of any accident and its negative after effect often cause severe results in trade transactions at the national level. The risk analysis is a method used in many fields to calculate the level of risk using accident probability(frequency) and corresponding consequence(damage) when an accident occurs. And the fuzzy inference technique is normally used to inference the result when given data are not enough to employ for the analysis. Since the accident data for port related activities do not occur frequently, there exists uncertainty in the resulting risk level. Therefore, we combine a risk analysis technique, i.e. risk matrix with fuzzy inference to calculate the risk level of port accident using real accident data over the 5 year period(2009-2013). The results are following: for accident types, External Truck Damage(ETD), Container & Cargo Damage for Quay operation(CCDQ), Yard Equipment Damage(YED) are the riskiest accidents and main causes of accidents are mishandling of equipment, equipment malfunction, and collision between spreader and container. We calculated the accident risk levels of each risk factor based upon which more practical accident mitigation measures could be applied to reduce the overall risk level. Since most of the accidents results from diverse human factors, future research should be focused on the detailed classification and analysis of them. The primary purpose of risk analysis is to find the potential risky factors, calculate the risk, and establish proper risk reduction plans and implementation of them, industry-specific risk assessment techniques should be developed in more proper way. Also, for each risk mitigation measure, a necessary way to judge the effect of it, i.e., a cost-benefit analysis should be implemented in decision-making process.

건축건설공사의 공종별 위험도와 직무스트레스의 상관관계

김정민,이종빈,장성록,Kim, Jeongmin,Lee, Jong-Bin,Chang, Seong Rok 한국안전학회 2017 한국안전학회지 Vol.32 No.4

In this study, the risk level of architectural works was calculated by applying work period and number of input workers based on accidents records from 2012 to 2014 and the architectural works were divided into four groups(High-High, High-Low, Low-High, Low-Low) according to risk levels of fatal accidents and loss time accidents. And then questionnaire on the job stress level of workers was performed for 670 workers working in the architectural work using Korean Occupational Stress Questionnaire Form developed by KOSHA. And then the relationship between the risk level and job stress level of four groups was analyzed. Results showed that 1) risk levels of fatal and loss time accidents applied by work period and input workers were analyzed to be different with those of previous research based on the number of fatal and loss time accidents; 2) job stress level of workers has been analyzed to have a significant relationship with the risk level of fatal and loss time accident; 3) specially, the average of job stress level of 'HH(High-High)' group was higher than those of other groups; 4) among the subfactors of job stress, interpersonal conflict, job insecurity, organizational system and lack of reward were analyzed to be key factors to affect the risk level.

자기 또는 타인을 위한 구매 결정상황에서 자기해석과 해석수준이 위험감수 정도에 미치는 영향

김화민 한국소비자·광고심리학회 2017 한국심리학회지 소비자·광고 Vol.18 No.2

It is inevitable to make small and big decisions unceasingly in our daily lives. They include decisions not for oneself but for others. In order to investigate how the decisions are made in risk-taking situations, this study is to examine how the self-construal level and construal level of the participant could impact in risk-taking situations. Each participant was randomly assigned to one of eight conditions in the experimental of 2(decision object: self/other) X 2(construal level: high/low) X 2(self-construal: independent/interdependent) 3-way completely randomized factorial design. The result also shows an effect of correlation among decision object, construal-level, and self-construal level. Participants who have high-construal and independent self-construal take high risk choices for both self and others, whereas participants who have low-construal and independent self-construal take low risk options for self and high risk options for others. On the other hand, in interdependent self-construal condition, they take low risk option for self regardless of their construal levels, whereas participants who have high-construal take high risk options for others and participants who have low-construal take low risk option others. The research results implicate that people have a tendency to take higher risks for the choices for others than for themselves but the tendency diminishes when they feel responsibilities or similarities with the others. Through the measurement of construal levels and self-construal levels, it has been identified that individuals' variable also has an influence on the results. The effect of types of purchase decision beneficiaries and deciders' individual characteristics on making risk-taking decisions, which has been investigated in this study, is considered to provide implications to risk-taking decisions in various area. 동일한 사람이 내리는 결정이라도 결정의 수혜자에 따라 결정의 결과가 다르게 나타날 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 중고 스마트폰 구매 상황에서 금전적인 혜택을 더 누릴 수 있지만 다소 위험을 감수해야 하는 대안과 금전적인 혜택의 정도는 상대적으로 작지만 위험 감수 정도를 최소화할 수 있는 대안 사이에서 자기 또는 타인을 위해 결정을 하도록 하여 결정의 수혜자가 결정의 결과에 미치는 영향을 살펴보고자 하였다. 결정의 수혜자가 누구인지 뿐 아니라 결정자가 본래 가지고 있는 성향도 결정의 결과에 영향을 줄 것이다. 본 연구는 결정의 수혜자가 결정에 미치는 영향을 보다 입체적으로 살펴보기 위해서 개인의 자기해석과 해석수준의 영향력도 함께 살펴보고자 하였다. 이를 위해 2(대상: 자기/ 타인) X 2(해석수준: 상위/하위) X 2(자기해석: 독립적/상호의존적)의 삼원 완전무선 요인설계로 실험을 진행하였고, 결정 대상과 해석수준 그리고 자기해석수준 사이에 삼원 상호작용 효과가 관찰되었다. 독립적 자기해석으로 점화된 조건의 상위해석자는 대상에 따라 위험감수 정도에 따른 차이가 크지 않았지만, 하위해석자는 타인을 위한 결정에서 위험을 감수하려고 하는 의도가 증가하였다. 상호의존적 자기해석으로 점화된 조건의 하위해석자는 결정 대상이 누구인지와 무관하게 위험감수 구매 의도가 모두 낮았지만, 상위해석자는 타인을 위한 결정일 때에는 위험감수 의도가 다소 증가하였다. 자기 또는 다른 사람을 위해서 현명한 결정을 내리는 것은 삶의 질을 향상시키는 데 중요한 역할을 할 것이다. 본 연구는 소비자가 자기 또는 다른 사람을 위해서 결정을 해야 하는 상황에서 보다 바람직한 결정을 내리는 데 도움이 될 수 있도록 결정 과정에 대한 이해의 깊이를 더하고자 하였다.

Risk Graph에 의해 할당된 SIL에 따른 철도 승강장 도어 시스템의 정량적 Risk 저감 모델

송기태 ( Ki Tae Song ),이성일 ( Sung Ill Lee ) 한국안전학회(구 한국산업안전학회) 2016 한국안전학회지 Vol.31 No.5

There exists required safety integrity level (SIL) to assure safety in accordance with international standards for every electrical / electronics / control equipment or systems with safety related functions. The SIL is allocated from lowest level (level 0) to highest level (level 4). In order to guarantee certain safety level that is internationally acceptable, application of methodology for SIL allocation and demonstration based on related international standards is required. Especially, in case of the SIL allocation method without determining of quantitative tolerable risk, the additional review is needed to check whether it is suitable or not is required. In this study, the quantitative risk reduction model based on the safety integrity allocation results of railway platform screen door system using Risk Graph method has been examined in order to review the suitability of quantitative risk reduction according to allocated safety integrity level.

다양한 위해성평가 방법에 따라 도출한 토양오염 판정기준의 차이에 관한 연구(III): 우리나라 납 오염 위해성평가 방법 제안

정재웅,남경필,Jung, Jae-Woong,Nam, Kyoungphile 한국지하수토양환경학회 2015 지하수토양환경 Vol.20 No.6

The most critical health effect of lead exposure is the neurodevelopmental effect to children caused by the increased blood lead level. Therefore, the endpoint of the risk assessment for lead-contaminated sites should be set at the blood lead level of children. In foreign countries, the risk assessment for lead-contaminated sites is conducted by estimating the increased blood lead level of children via oral intake and/or inhalation (United States Environmental Protection Agency, USEPA), or by comparing the estimated oral dose to the threshold oral dose of lead, which is derived from the permissible blood lead level of children (Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, RIVM). For the risk assessment, USEPA employs Integrated-Exposure-Uptake-Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model to check whether the estimated portion of children whose blood lead level exceeds 10 μg/dL, threshold blood lead level determined by USEPA, is higher than 5%, while Dutch RIVM compares the estimated oral dose of lead to the threshold oral dose (2.8 μg/kg-day), which is derived from the permissible blood lead level of children. In Korea, like The Netherlands, risk assessment for lead-contaminated sites is conducted by comparing the estimated oral dose to the threshold oral dose; however, because the threshold oral dose listed in Korean risk assessment guidance is an unidentified value, it is recommended to revise the existing threshold oral dose described in Korean risk assessment guidance. And, if significant lead exposure via inhalation is suspected, it is useful to employ IEUBK Model to derive the risk posed via multimedia exposure (i.e., both oral ingestion and inhalation).