초과부채증가율과 경제성장

이인호,유시용 한국공공관리학회 2019 한국공공관리학회 학술대회 Vol.2019 No.12

글로벌 금융위기 이후 부채축소(deleverage)가 충분히 이루어지지 않은 상태에서 선진국들은 여전히 유동성공급에 우선순위를 두고 있다. 이러한 추세에서, 본 연구는 초과부채증가율(excess debt growth rate)이 경제성장률에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 초과부채증가율은 GDP 대비 부채비율의 증가율로 계산하였고, OECD 25개 국가의 1990년부터 2017년까지 기간을 분석 대상과 기간으로 선정하였다. 특히 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 전후로 달라진 상황을 비교 분석하기 위하여 다시 기간을 둘로 나누어 분석하였다. 주요 연구 결과로, 전체 기간으로 보았을 때, 기업과 정부의 초과부채증가율, 신용갭은 경제성장에 유의한 음(-)의 영향을 주었다. 글로벌 금융위기 전후를 살펴보면 가계의 초과부채증가율은 경제성장에 있어 유의한 양(+)에서 음(-) 바뀌었고 신용갭은 전후 모두 유의한 음(-)의 관계를 보였다. 부채의 만기효과를 확인하기 위해 초과부채증가율 변수에 1~3년의 시간지연(time lag)을 주었을 때, 신용갭만 1, 2년 만기에 대해 경제성장에 유의한 음(-)의 영향을 주었다. 그러나 이를 다시 경제위기 전후로 나누어보면, 글로벌 금융위기 이후에는 경제성장에 있어 기업은 2년, 가계는 1년 후에 유의한 양(+), 정부는 1, 3년, 신용갭은 1, 2년 후에 유의한 음(-)의 관계를 보였다. After the global financial crisis, the advanced countries still prioritize liquidity supply without enough deleveraging. Under these circumstances, the global economy, as a lesson of economic policy failure in the Great Depression of 1930s, responded in joint using expansion of credit instead of fiscal austerity for the global financial crisis in 2008. However, the global economy has not recovered sufficiently and the economic growth rate has been declining steadily. Global debt is also increasing. In the case of Japan, the ratio of public or government debt to GDP has continued to increase since 1990, reaching 250%. The United States and United Kingdom also grow by 105% and 87%, respectively, from the global financial crisis of 2008. In this global trend, this paper analyzes how the excess debt growth rate affects economic growth. Previous studies used debt to GDP ratios as debt variable. However, we define the excess debt growth rate as gap between debt growth rate and GDP growth rate. We also use Credit to GDP gaps from statistical explorer of Bank for International Settlements. The data is a panel of 25 OECD countries covering the period 1990-2017. Especially, the period is divided into two periods to compare the situation before and after the global financial crisis in 2008. The system GMM was used to estimate the effect of debt of on economic growth. We have two key questions and answer them in this study. The first, does the excess debt growth rate affect economic growth? Debt-to-GDP ratio involve GDP and debt growth together. However, the excess debt growth rate only captures debt growth that exceed over the GDP growth. We expect the result using the excess debt growth rate is negative effect identical with previous on economic growth. The second, does the maturity effect of debt exist? In the previous study, the maturity effect of debt was different in the sector of private and government. In the case of government debt, the effect is negative on economic growth, but private debt has positive effect on economic growth on long-term debt. In other words, there is a positive or negative maturity effect of debt. Therefore, the excess debt growth rate can show the maturity effect of debt. The key findings are that the excess debt growth rate of non-financial corporate, governments and credit gap have a negative effect on the economic growth under the whole period. When we look at before and after the global financial crisis, households’ excess debt growth rate is changed from positive effect to negative effect and credit gap is negative effect before and after the global financial crisis on economic growth. When the model has a time lagged variable of 1-3 years to check with an expiration effect, only the credit gap shows a negative effect on the economic growth (1-2 years). However, when we divide it before and after the global financial crisis, the excess debt growth rate of non-financial corporate (2-year) and household (1-year) have a significant positive effect, but government’s excess debt growth rate (1, 3-year) and credit gap(1-2years) have a significant negative effect on economic growth. It is distinction that this study used the excess debt growth rate by using the rate of increase in the ratio instead of using the debt-to-GDP ratio variable in the previous research. Not only the excess debt growth rate but also the debt-to-GDP variable cannot immune from endogeneity, but we tried two approaches. This study use system GMM which uses GDP growth as an instrumental variable at t-1 time and use time lag variables to solve endogenous problem. Most previous debt research focused on government debt, but this study include non-financial and household debt and use also Credit to GDP gaps because debt is not the only area of government, it needs to be dealt with in detail, including private debt. In this study, the negative effects of excess debt on economic growth are clearly shown, as in previou

인구 및 인구구조 변화와 경제성장과의 관계: 한국과 일본의 인구 및 인구구조 변화와 경제성장 간 선형⋅비선형 관계 분석

이순호 한일경상학회 2020 韓日經商論集 Vol.88 No.-

This study aims to analyze how overall changes in population affects economic growth. The analysis is followed by thorough comparison with Japan especially on how demographic changes(decline in population growth, aging, and low fertility rate) influence economic growth. Finally, policy implications are deduced based on the observations. First, we compare the impact and magnitude of population growth on economic growth in Korea and Japan. OLS is used in the analysis. Analysis is made on both linear and non-linear relationships. By linear analysis, we compare the impact and magnitude of population growth on economic growth in each of the two countries, while by non-linear analysis, we estimate the optimal population growth rate that maximizes economic growth. The following are conclusions derived by empirical analysis. First, the impact of population growth on economic growth was greater in Japan than in Korea. Second, unlike Japan, non-linear relationship between population growth and economic growth was observed in Korea, and the optimal population growth rate for maximizing economic growth was estimated at 1.89 to 2.03%. Third, the negative impact of aging on economic growth in Korea outweighed the positive impact of the fertility rate. The policy implications for population and demographic changes to contribute to economic growth are as follows: First, the population growth rate should be raised to the 2% range estimated at the optimum level of maximizing economic growth. Second, the government and businesses need to step up efforts to improve the aging population’s willingness to work and create quality jobs so that the aging population does not act as a negative factor for economic growth. This study is differentiated from preceding research in that it analyzed the non-linear relationship between the population and economic growth, estimated the optimal population growth rate, and presented policy implications related to changes in the population structure, such as aging and low fertility rate. 본 연구의 주제는 인구 및 인구구조 변화와 경제성장과의 관계이며 연구 목적은 인구 증가세 둔화와 고령화⋅저출산 등 인구구조 변화가 경제성장에 미치는 영향에 대해 일본 과의 비교분석을 통해 정책적 시사점을 도출하는 데 있다. 인구증가 및 인구구조 변화와 경제성장 간 분석은 OLS를 이용한다. 먼저 인구증가와 경제성장 간 선형관계 분석을 통해 인구증가가 한국과 일본의 경제성장에 미친 영향 및 크기를 비교하며 비선형 관계 (Non-Linear Relationship) 분석에서는 경제성장을 극대화하는 최적 인구증가율(Optimal Population Growth Rate)을 추정해 본다. 실증분석 결과 첫째, 인구증가가 경제성장에 미친 영향은 한국보다 일본이 큰 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 한국은 일본과 달리 인구증가와 경제성장간 비선형관계가 나타났으며 경제성장을 극대화하는 최적 인구증가율은 1.89∼2.03% 수준으로 추정되었다. 셋째, 한국은 고령화가 경제성장에 미치는 부정적 영향이 출산율의 긍정적 영향보다 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 실증분석 결과를 토대로 인구 및 인구구조 변화가 경제성장에 기여하기 위한 정책적 시사점을 다음과 같이 제시해 본다. 첫째, 인구증가율을 경제성장률을 극대화시키는 최적수준으로 추정된 2%대까지 높여야 된다. 둘째, 고령인구가 경제성장의 부정적 요인으로 작용하지 않도록 정부, 기업 등이 고령인구의 근로의욕 향상, 양질의 일자리 창출 등을 위한 노력을 한층 강화할 필요가 있다. 본 연구는 우리보다 앞서 인구감소, 인구구조 변화 문제를 겪고 있는 일본과의 비교분석을 통해 정책적 시사점을 찾아보았다. 특히 선행연구에서 많이 시도되지 않았던 인구와 경제성장 간 비선형 관계를 분석하고 경제성장을 극대화하는 최적 인구증가율을 추정해 보았으며 고령화ㆍ저출산 등 인구구조 변화와 관련한 정책적 시사점을 제시해 보았다는 점에서 선행연구와 차별화된다.

Optimal Inflation Threshold and Economic Growth: Ordinal Regression Model Analysis

DINH, Doan Van Korea Distribution Science Association 2020 The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Busine Vol.7 No.5

The study investigates the relationship between the inflation rate and economic growth to find out the optimal inflation threshold for economic growth. Therefore, this study applied an ordinary least square model (OLS) and the ordinal regression model, and collected the time-series data from 1996 to 2017 to test the relationship between inflation and economic growth in the short-term and long-term. The sample fits the model and is statistically significant. The study showed that 96.6% of correlation between inflation rate and economic growth are close and 4.5% of optimal inflation threshold is appropriate for economic growth. It finds that the optimal inflation threshold is base to perform economic growth, besides the inflation rate is positively related to economic growth. The results support the monetary policy appropriately. This study identifies issues for Government to consider: have a comprehensive solution among macroeconomic policies, monetary policy, fiscal policy and other policies to control and maintain the inflation and stimulate growth; have appropriate policies to regulate inflation to stimulate economic growth over the long term; set a priority goal for sustainable economic growth; not pursue economic growth by maintaining the inflation rate in the long term, but take appropriate measures to stabilize the inflation at the optimal inflation threshold.

초과부채증가율과 경제성장

이인호,유시용 한국재무학회 2019 한국재무학회 학술대회 Vol.2019 No.05

글로벌 금융위기 이후 부채축소(deleverage)가 충분히 이루어지지 않은 상태에 서 선진국들은 여전히 유동성공급에 우선순위를 두고 있다. 이러한 글로벌한 추 세에서, 본 연구는 초과부채증가율(excess debt growth rate)이 경제성장률에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 초과부채증가율은 부채증가율에서 GDP 증가율을 뺀 값으로 정의하였고, OECD 30개 국가의 1990년부터 2017년까지 기간을 분석 대상과 기간으로 선정하였다. 특히 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 전후로 달라진 상황 을 비교 분석하기 위하여 다시 기간을 둘로 나누어 분석하였다. 주요 연구 결과 로는, 전체 기간으로 보았을 때, 가계 및 정부의 초과부채증가율은 경제성장에 유의한 음(-)의 영향을 주었고, 글로벌 금융위기 이전에도 같은 결과를 보였다. 그러나 글로벌 금융위기 이후에는 가계의 초과부채증가율만이 경제성장에 유의 한 음의 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 부채의 만기효과를 보기 위해 초과부채 증가율 변수에 1~3년의 시간지연(time lag)을 주었을 때, 1~3기 이전의 변수 모두 경제성장에 대해 기업과 가계의 초과부채증가율은 유의한 음의 영향을, 정 부의 초과부채증가율은 유의한 양의 영향을 보였다. 부채의 만기효과도 글로벌 금융위기 전과 후로 나누어 살펴본 결과, 경제성장에 있어 글로벌 금융위기 이 전에는 정부의 초과부채증가율은 1~3기 이전의 변수가 모두 양의 관계를, 가계 의 초과부채증가율은 3기 이전의 변수만 음의 관계를 보였다. 그러나 글로벌 금 융위기 이후에는 정부의 초과부채증가율 1기 이전의 변수만 음의 관계를 보였 고, 변수 대부분은 유의한 관계를 보이지 않았다. After the global financial crisis, the advanced countries still prioritize liquidity supply without enough deleveraging. In this global trend, this paper analyzes how the excess debt growth rate affects economic growth. We define the excess debt growth rate as gap between debt growth rate and GDP growth rate and the data is a panel of 30 OECD countries covering the period 1990-2017. Especially, the period is divided into two periods to compare the situation before and after the global financial crisis in 2008. The key findings are that the excess debt growth rate of households and governments have a negative effect on the economic growth under the whole period and before the global financial crisis. However, households’ excess debt growth rate is statistically significant after the global financial crisis. When the model has a time lagged variable of 1-3 years to check with an expiration effect, the excess debt growth rate of households and non-financial corporate shows a negative effect on the economic growth, but the excess debt growth rate of governments have a positive effect. As a result of examining the expiration effect of debt before and after the global financial crisis, we also find that the excess debt growth rate of governments affects positive impact in all time lagged variables(1-3 years) before the global financial crisis, but only time lagged variable of 3-year of households shows a negative effect. However, only time lagged variable of 1-year of governments shows negative effect after the global financial crisis, but the other variables are not statistically significant.

물가 변동성이 경제성장률에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

김주일 한국전문경영인학회 2022 한국전문경영인학회 학술대회 발표논문집 Vol.2022 No.05

본 논문은 한국은행 경제통계시스템에서 공시한 1966년 2월부터 2021년 11월까지 57년 9개월 동안 월별자료인 224개 표본에 대한 경제성장률과 생산자물가등락률 및 소비자물가등락률을 대상으로 하여, 생산자물가 및 소비자물가가 경제성장률에 미치는 영향을 VAR 모형으로 분석하였다. 실증적 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 그랜저 인과관계 분석결과 생산자물가와 소비자물가는 경제성장률에 대하여 선행적으 로 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 충격반응함수 분석결과 1966년 이후 생산자물가와 소비자물가는 경제성장률에 일정시차까지 영향을 미치다가 사라지는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 분산분해 분석결과 1966년 이후에 경제성장률은 생산자물가와 소비자물가에 의하여 일정한 영향력으로 반응하는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 연구결과를 종합해 보면, 생산자물가와 소비자물가의 등락이 경제성장률에 직접적인 영향을 미친다는 사실을 알 수 있게 하였으며, 경제성장률과 생산자물가 및 소비자물가가 경제 현상을 이해하는데 있어서 중요한 경제지표임을 확인하게 되었다. 아울러 생산자물가와 소비자물가가 경제성장률에 직접적 인 영향을 미치는 분석결과는 물가를 적극적으로 관리해야 하는 정부뿐만 아니라 기업들에게도 중요한 시사점을 제시할 수 있을 것이다. This paper examines the economic growth rate, producer price fluctuation rate, and consumer price fluctuation rate for 224 samples, which are monthly data for 57 years and 9 months from February 1966 to November 2021, published by the Economic Statistical System of the Bank of Korea. The influence of price and consumer price on economic growth was analyzed using the VAR model. The empirical analysis results are as follows. First, as a result of the Granger causal relationship analysis, it was found that producer price and consumer price had a pre-emptive effect on economic growth rate. Second, as a result of the shock response function analysis, it was found that the producer and consumer prices after 1966 affect the economic growth rate up to a certain time lag before disappearing. Third, as a result of analysis of variance decomposition, it was found that the economic growth rate after 1966 responds with a certain influence to the producer price and consumer price. Combining these research results, it is possible to know that the fluctuations in producer and consumer prices have a direct effect on economic growth rate, and economic growth rate, producer and consumer prices are important economic indicators for understanding economic phenomena. It has been confirmed that In addition, the results of the analysis that producer and consumer prices directly affect economic growth rate can suggest important implications not only for the government, but also for companies that need to actively manage prices.

Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: The Role of Savings

Carlos Dabus,Fernando Delbianco 한국라틴아메리카학회 2021 라틴아메리카연구 Vol.34 No.1

In this study we carry out a qualitative exploration of some factors that can explain the poor economic performance of Latin America in relation to another set of developing and successful countries comprised of twelve Asian countries. We study the relation between inequality, the savings rate, and the economic growth rate for each region. The evidence indicates that Latin America has a poorer economic performance, which in turn is associated with the lower savings rate and more elevated levels of inequality in comparison with the Asian economies. One possible explanation is that together with lower income inequality and the aggregate savings rates, the labor force in Asia is more abundant than in Latin America. These combined factors are favorable for the lowering of internal socioeconomic instability and the adoption of an export-led growth strategy for insertion in the world economy. This export-led growth strategy promotes economies of scale, and thus offers greater possibilities of profitable investment, which in turn induces higher rates of savings and increased economic growth. In contrast, Latin America is lacking a clear comparative advantage in terms of resource endowment. In particular, the labor force is not abundant, so that its insertion in the world market is more limited. Besides, the social and economic instability associated with the region’s high-income inequality is harmful to savings and investment, as well as for the economic growth of the region. Thus, in order to dynamize savings and investments, economic policy requires fiscal policies oriented to the mitigation of income inequality and the promotion of counter-cyclical policies to reduce social and economic instability.

가계부채가 가계소비와 경제성장에 미치는 영향: 거시자료를 중심으로

전수민 아시아.유럽미래학회 2019 유라시아연구 Vol.16 No.3

The nation has seen its household debt growth rate fall since 2017 due to government efforts to increase household debt, but it is still above economic growth and consumption growth rates, raising interest in household debt. In particular, it would be important to look at the effects of household debt on the real economy at this point as the positive effects on consumption and growth through household debt growth and the burden of repayment of loans persist amid increasing uncertainties in the global economy and the continued slump in the domestic economy. Therefore, this study empirically analyzed the relationship between household debt, consumption and growth using the OLS method and GMM method from the fourth quarter of 2003 to the first quarter of 2019. The results showed that while household debt growth has a positive impact on consumption and economic growth, the ratio of household debt/potential GDP has a negative impact on consumption and growth. This suggests that the rise in household debt will boost consumption and growth with eased liquidity constraints, but the burden of repayment of borrowing from accumulated household debt is likely to increase, constraining consumption and growth. It also confirmed that despite the recent decline in household debt growth, the sluggish domestic economy has led to a further rise in negative contributions to consumption and growth. Thus, from a mid- to long-term perspective, policy measures should be devised to control the pace of household debt and stimulate consumption and economic growth.

GOVERNMENT SIZE, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT: EVIDENCE FROM ADVANCED AND DEVELOPING ECONOMY COUNTRIES (A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, 1996–2006)

사용진 한국행정학회 2011 International Review of Public Administration Vol.16 No.2

The primary objective of this study is to estimate empirically the impact of government size on economic growth in 32 advanced and 51 developing countries from 1996 to 2006. Specifically, how do the effects of government size on economic growth in two groups of countries differ? In contrast to previous studies, this one attempts to gauge the relative effect of government size on economic growth by using a united regression model combining advanced and developing countries, as well as the same control variables. As theoretically expected, this study demonstrates that the effect of government size on economic growth is positive for developed countries and negative for advanced countries. Furthermore, the model confirms that the relative effect of government size on economic growth in developing countries is almost five times higher than in advanced ones. Another purpose of this study is to estimate the impact of government size on the unemployment rate in two groups of countries. The evidence from the regression results shows that greater government size is associated with a higher unemployment rate in both groups of countries. The study demonstrates that a larger government has a detrimental effect on economic growth, due, at least in part, to a higher unemployment rate. In addition, the model confirms that the relative effect of government size on the unemployment rate in developing countries is almost three times higher than in advanced countries. Finally, based on the result that government size has significantly different effects on economic growth and the unemployment rate across two groups of countries, this study implies that policy makers need to consider different levels and types of fiscal policies to improve economic growth depending on the country’s economic level.

Investigating the moderating impact of crime and corruption on the economic growth of Bangladesh: Fresh insights

Zhang Yu,Muhammad Umer Quddoos,Syed Abdul Rehman Khan,Muhammad Munir Ahmad,Laeeq Razzak Janjua,Muhammad Sajid Amin,Abdul Haseeb 한국외국어대학교 국제지역연구센터 2023 International Area Studies Review Vol.26 No.2

This study investigates the moderating role of the corruption index with the impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI), unemployment, corruption, and crime rate on economic growth in Bangladesh from 1988 to 2019. The Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Peron (P-P) unit root tests were applied to check the stationary properties of the concerned variables. The auto regressor distribution lags approach is used to test the hypotheses. The results show that the corruption index as a moderator has a significant adverse impact on economic growth along with the other variables crime, and unemployment on economic growth. To put it simply, economic growth increases by decreasing corruption, unemployment, and crime rates. Similarly, FDI and trade openness appears as a catalyst for boosting economic growth, but the interaction variable of the trade and corruption index increases the trade costs that may slow down the economic growth. As among the pioneer attempts, the present study contributes to growing literature on the moderator role of the corruption index along with other determinants of economic growth by identifying the role of FDI inflows, trade, unemployment, and crime rates on economic growth in Bangladesh. These empirical findings are directed toward some critical policy implications that will help the governmental bodies and policymakers to achieve sustainable economic growth along with ensuring better employment opportunities and thereby control the crime and corruption rates in Bangladesh.

경제성장과정에서 여성의 경제활동참가의 결정요인

이웅호,김일점 진주산업대학교 2002 論文集 Vol.41 No.-

In this study, it has looked into not only the tendencies and changes of the rate of woman's participate economic activities since 1975 to analyze the changes of their participation in the labor market but also the correlations between the determinating factors of participating factors of their economic activities and the economic growth through the positive analysis, for the purposed of providing the data of their labor policy. The results analyzing the correlations of variables which cause women to work during the process of the economic growth and their participating rate in the economic activities are as follows; As for the correlation with the economic growth, it has positively correlated in GDP person that is generally able to show the standard of national income, automobile supply rate, the importance of the cultural recreation expanses and housing provided rate. Especially, the high positive correlation, 0.89 in the relation of GDP has actually shown that the women's manpower remains the advanced nation type with as our economic growth. Consequently, the policy consideration should be taken into as the participation rate of their economic activities is expected to increase with the advanced formation according to the economic growth in the future.