The Influence of Sino-US Trade War on China-ROK Relations

Wu Jinfeng(Jinfeng Wu) 아시아사회과학학회 2023 Jornal of Asia Social Science Vol.10 No.1

For China and the United States, South Korea is an important trading partner, and it is also highly concerned about the Sino-US trade war. Because South Korea's economy relies heavily on the external environment, it has also been impacted to a certain extent by the Sino-US trade war. Although some studies believe that the Sino-US trade war has brought new development opportunities to South Korea, from a practical perspective, South Korea's gross domestic product, export trade, and stock market have been greatly impacted, especially by the intensified competition among big countries and the reshaping of global value chains brought about by the Sino-US trade war. With the intensification of the Sino-US trade war, both China and South Korea should think about how to reduce the influence of Sino-US relations and maintain the stability of Sino-Korean relations. Therefore, South Korea needs to actively adjust its economic policies, speed up the upgrading of its economic cooperation with China, take the initiative to seize the American market, and play a certain role in promoting regional multilateral economic cooperation and economic and trade diversification, especially avoiding taking sides between China and the United States. China, on the other hand, should strengthen its economic and political cooperation with South Korea so as to alleviate other countries' worries about Sino-US competition and the rise of China and thus realise the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of China-South Korea relations.

미-중 무역 분쟁의 원인과 주요 변수에 관한 연구

서창배 ( Seo Chang-bae ) 한중사회과학학회 2018 한중사회과학연구 Vol.16 No.4

The competition and conflict between the G2, the US and China, is on the rise in 2018. Recently, the US and China are raising the tension over the US’s resolve to resolve deficits in the trade with China, including the imposition of high tariffs versus the retaliatory tariffs, the increase of the US’s interest rate versus the devaluation of China’s RMB exchange rate. Why is the United States controlling China? First, increasing forecasts for China as translate G1 into reality. Second, the world’s largest consumer market is changing from the US to China. Third, the realizing of the weakening US’s influence on the world. Fourth, China’s situation is different from Japan of the Plaza Agreement (September 22, 1985). Therefore, I expect the following five variables to be significant in order for the ongoing US-China trade friction to continue the current trend of heightened conflict in the first half and alleviation of conflict in the second half. First, it is whether the US and China will stabilize and grow in the economy each other. Second, it is whether the US will raise interest rates in September. Third, it is whether the result of the US-North Korea summit (June 12, 2018) is successful to the US. Fourth, it is whether the result of the US midterm elections in November and Donald Trump can serve a consecutive term in the next presidential election. Fifth, the most important and key factors are how huge negative economic impact will be expected to themselves after expanding US-China trade friction. The US-China trade war further faces Korea, which exists between the United States and China, into difficult situations. Korea is an alliance of the US with a high degree of dependence on politics, military, and security. Meanwhile, Korea is highly dependent on the economy and trade of China. Therefore, Korea has to make a new position of foreign affairs. This needs will increase in the future, and now it is time to redefine Korea.

미국의 대중국 무역정책에 영향을 미치는 국내외 요인 분석

주용식 ( Yong Shik Choo ) 한국국제통상학회 2021 국제통상연구 Vol.26 No.4

경제학적 관점에서 미중무역전쟁의 원인은 미국의 대중국 무역적자 증가다. 하지만 미중무역전쟁은 무역, 경제 영역을 넘어 지정학적, 지경학적으로 많은 파장을 일으키고 있다. 본 논문은 미중무역전쟁의 원인을 정치경제적 관점에서 고찰해 본다. 미국은 왜 무역전쟁을 일으켰는가? 미국의 대중국 강경정책에 영향을 주는 요인들은 무엇인가? 본 논고는 미국의 대중국 무역정책에 영향을 주는 내외적 요인들을 분석해 보고 미중무역전쟁의 전망에 대해 논의해보고자 한다. 미중무역전쟁의 배경요인은 양국 간의 패권쟁탈전이다. 미국은 중국 경제의 부상과 군현대화가 미국패권에 심각한 위해가 될 것으로 인식하고 있다. 중국의 최첨단 산업 육성은 향후 미국의 상대적 국가 경쟁력을 약화 시킬 수 있다고 보고 있다. 지정학적, 지경학적인 외적 요인이외에도 이익집단들의 로비, 미국의 전통적 외교 사상 등 내적 요인도 대중국 무역정책 결정과정에 지대한 영향을 주고 있다. 대기업과 수출기업의 효과적인 로비로 미중무역전쟁이 다소 완화될 수는 있으나, 미국정부가 민족주의적 성향의 대외정책을 추진하고 있고 패권경쟁이라는 국가 안보에 대한 위기의식이 배경요인으로 강하게 작용하고 있기 때문에 미중무역관계는 앞으로 상당한 난항이 지속될 것으로 예상된다. From an economic perspective, the main cause of US-China trade war is the increasing US trade deficit. However, the trade war has resulted in massive geopolitical and geo-economic ramifications. The paper attempts to find the root causes of the trade war from a political-economic point of view. Why did the United States initiate the trade war? What factors render the US China policy to be hawkish? This article analyzes some external and internal factors bringing effects to bear on US trade policy toward China and tries to foresee the prospect of their trade war. In its background exists US-China hegemonic competition. The United States perceives soaring Chinese economy and military modernization to threaten the US primacy and its growing high-tech industries to weaken US relative competitiveness. Besides geopolitical and geo-economic factors, the politics of interest groups and US traditional foreign policy ideas significantly affect the making of its trade policy toward China. It is expected that effective lobbying by big corporations and export firms might ease US-China trade war. However, the war is more likely to go through a bumpy and rocky ways, considering a nationalist tendency of US policy and a crisis consciousness stemming from US-China hegemonic competition.

A real driver of US–China trade conflict

김민형 경희대학교 글로벌 통상·금융연구원 2019 International Trade, Politics and Development Vol.3 No.1

According to the conventional wisdom, trade is not a zero-sum game, but a positive-sum game. By allowing countries to focus on producing the goods that they can produce relatively efficiently, free trade is largely beneficial for everyone involved. Then, why are the world’s two largest economies (i.e. the USA and China) currently engaged in a trade war, which is likely to hurt their own economies? What is the driving force for the trade war between the two economic giants? The purpose of this paper is to offer an explanation of the underlying cause of the US–China trade war.In an effort to make sense of the trade war between the USA and China, the paper draws the insights from the two international relations theories – i.e. hegemonic stability theory and power transition theory.As China continues to threaten US hegemony in the world in general and East Asia in particular, the Sino–US competition for hegemony will intensify over time. As a result, the trade war between the two countries may persist longer than many anticipate. Further, even if the trade war between the two superpowers ends soon, a similar type of conflict is likely to occur later as long as the Sino–US hegemonic rivalry continues.The central thesis of this paper is that “US fear” about its declining hegemony and China’s rapid rise as a challenger of US hegemony is driving a US-launched trade war with China. Since the underlying cause of the trade war between the world’s two largest economies is political (i.e. the Sino–US hegemonic rivalry) rather than economic (e.g. US attempts to improve the trade balance with China by imposing tariffs on Chinese goods), the paper contends that the full understanding of the trade war requires close attention to the importance of power competition between the two superpowers.

미중 무역전쟁 연구 : 트럼프정부의 보호무역정책 요인분석을 중심으로

김관옥(Kim, Kwanok) 동아시아국제정치학회 2018 국제정치연구 Vol.21 No.1

As China is strongly resisting the Trump administration`s unprecedented retaliatory trade policy toward China, the trade conflict between the two countries goes beyond the level of trade conflict and deteriorated into a `trade war`. Why has the Trump administration initiated a trade war by imposing a large tariff on China? Why has China strongly resisted against the pressure and demand of the U.S., not like Japan did in the past? To what extent does the trade war between the U.S. and China develop and ultimately turn into a protectionist international trade order? The study results showed that the US-China trade disputes resulted from both the United States` protective trade policy and China`s strong retaliatory measures toward each other were more than just aimed at creating a favorable trade balance. It was confirmed that the trade war between the U.S. and China showed signs of economic power competition, technological competition and production competition as part of the hegemony competition. In other words, the trade war between the U.S. and China is a competition to secure superior economic power, which is the condition of the hegemonic power, as the hegemonic stabilization approach argued. The declining U.S. has pushed for a mercantilist trade policy to protect its industries and increase exports in order to regain its dominant economic power, on the other side, China has to secure control over capital, market and technology in order to emerge as a hegemonic power.

The CGE Analysis of the US-China Trade War on the US, China, the EU, Korea, Japan, Vietnam, India, Mexico, and Brazil

Chae-Deug Yi 한국무역통상학회 2021 무역통상학회지 Vol.21 No.2

The recent US-China Trade War leads to a decrease in GDPs and welfare levels for the US and China as well as the whole world. The US-China Trade War also leads to the largest decrease in automobiles for US’s exports to China and the largest decrease in TextWepp for China’s exports to the US. And it also leads both the US and China to decrease in most product sectors. Korea, Japan, the EU, Vietnam, India, Mexico and Brazil are expected to increase their exports to the US in manufactured goods such as TextWapp, LightMnfc, HwavyMnfc, Chemical, Electronics sectors, except in primary sectors. However, Korea, Japan, the EU, Vietnam, India, Mexico and Brazil are expected to increase or decrease their exports to China according to their trade structure versus China. The welfare effects of the US and China as well as the whole world appear to be negative. However, welfare gains are expected to be relatively small positive in all other countries.

미국의 대중국 견제 구도와 파급영향

정인교,유정호,박슬기,위민 한국무역상무학회 2019 貿易商務硏究 Vol.81 No.-

본 논문은 미중 통상마찰이 당사국간 문제로 그치지 않고 우리나라 수출에 심각한 영향을 초래할 수 있음을 보여주는데 그 목적이 있다. 미중은 우리나라의 최대 교역상대국이고, 우리 기업들의 투자가 가장 많은 국가이며 긴밀한 가치사슬(VC)을 형성한 지역이다. 미중 갈등으로 인한 틈새시장을 예상할 수 있지만, 현재의 국제무역질서가 훼손되면 무역의존도가 높은 우리 경제가 타격을 받을 수밖에 없다. 본 논문은 스페셜 301조, 무역확대법 232조와 비시장경제국가 규정을 트럼프 행정부의 대중국 압박 전략차원에서 분석하고자 한다. 또한 동태일반균형모형(Dynamic CGE)을 이용하여 미중 통상갈등이 세계(한국) 수출입에 미칠 영향을 분석하며 우리나라의 대응방안 및 시사점을 제시하고자 한다. US' Approach for Pressing China's Economic System Reform and its Effects on World Trade The purpose of this paper is to show that the US-China trade friction can not only be a problem between the parties, but can also have a serious impact on Korea 's exports. The US and China are the largest trading partners of Korea, the region with the largest investment of our corporations, and the region that formed a close value chain (VC). It is possible to predict a niche market due to the US-China conflict, but if the current international trade order is damaged, the Korean economy, which is highly dependent on trade, will suffer. In Chapter II of this paper, we examine the trends of US trade conflicts with China. In Chapter III, we analyze Special 301 and Trade Expansion Act 232 and the regulation of non-market economy in terms of Trump administration's pressing strategy against China. We then estimate the effects of US-China trade conflict on world trade by using a dynamic CGE model and try to find implications for companies in the era of US-China conflict.

트럼프의 미국 우선주의 통상정책과 EU의 양면적 대응

윤성욱 아시아.유럽미래학회 2018 유라시아연구 Vol.15 No.4

The purpose of this research is to investigate the EU’s responses to Trump’s America first trade policy and to provide its implications. Since the Trump administration determined to impose 25% and 10% of additional tariffs on steel and aluminum products respectively based on threats of national security from imported products, the US tried to have bilateral negotiations with each country. Several countries such as the EU, Canada and Mexico initially announced their strong responses, but most of them chose the negotiations with the US as the way of the resolution. The EU, however, decided to adopt rebalancing measures in reaction to the US steel and aluminium tariffs, which imposed additional tariffs on imported products from the US. Under the situation that trade disputes between the EU and the US could be intensified after Trump’s threat of imposing additional tariffs on imported cars from the EU, both sides reached a deal on July 2018 to work towards ‘zero tariffs, non-tariff barriers and subsidies on non-auto industrial goods including the reform of the WTO’. The EU’s responses against the US protectionism have two-fold characteristics of hard and moderate policies. The EU as a representative of 28 member states of the EU which has competence in the trade policy as well as its trade volume beyond that of the US has its capability to respond strongly to the US policy. The EU triggered the first phase of retaliation against Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs in line with WTO rules according to the EU’s principle of trade policy on the basis of the multilateral trade system under the WTO. Along with this hard policy, the EU has tried to negotiate with the US in order to avoid deepening trade war with the US. This is mainly because both sides recognise the importance of their economic and political relations and the risk of damages from trade war between them. Although the US and the EU started the negotiations, it does not seem to be easy to reach an agreement between them. Regardless of the result of the negotiations between the EU and the US, it is clear that the global trading system could be restructured, and the transformation of global supply chain is inevitable due to the trade war between China and the US as well as the result of negotiation between the EU and US. It is time for the Korean government to establish policy reponses from the mid and long term perspective.

Accounting for China-US Trade Imbalance : An Ownership-Based Approach

Xu Yiping 한국무역학회 2007 國際學術大會 論文集 Vol.2007 No.12

Measuring the size of China's trade surplus with the U.S. has always been controversial among academics and policy makers. The issue becomes more complicated with unprecedented impact of foreign direct investment on the bilateral trade between China and the U.S. Any proposal about China-US trade policies has to be able to explain the implications of this impact. This paper examines the trade imbalance between China and the U.S. under the ownership-based framework. It extends the baseline model developed, respectively, by NAS, Julius and BEA into a three-country framework, consisting of the domestic economy, the foreign economy and the rest of the world. The paper also experiments with the simplified form of this new framework by estimating the size of the China-US trade imbalance. The results of the study show that non-US foreign direct investment in China is mostly responsible for China's trade surplus with the U.S. In 2003, 71.5 percent of China's trade surplus with the U.S. could be attributed to non-US foreign direct investment in China. As a result, China's ownership-based trade surplus was surprisingly smaller than that measured with conventional cross-border method. In 2003, for instance, China's ownership-based trade surplus with the U.S. was $11.9 billion, only 20 percent of the conventional cross-border measure. It is believed that the approach adopted in this study is capable of revealing more information than both NAS-Julius-BEA approach and the conventional trade accounting method.

미․중 무역불균형 분석: 고안된 TⅡ지수를 활용하여

김태헌 조선대학교 지식경영연구원 2019 기업과 혁신연구 Vol.42 No.2

This study aims to develop a suitable Trade Imbalance Index (TII) to measure the trade deficit of the United States in the situation that the trade friction between the U.S. and China is becoming a US-China trade war, and to verify its validity as a trade imbalance analysis tool by applying it to the US-China trade balance analysis. The results of the US-China trade imbalance analysis for 10 years from 2009 to 2018 using the newly designed TII index showed that TII could be a very useful tool in the analysis of US’ export product structure as well as the analysis of foreign trade structure by country. In other words, TII can be calculated by country, industry, and item, so that the trade parties can predict the possibility of trade friction, and one country can monitor the trade balance with a specific country and cross-comparete the degree of trade imbalance with multiple countries. In addition, the trade imbalance index of a specific industry in the bilateral trade has the advantage of easily measuring the degree of export and import specialization and the competitiveness of comparative advantage in the industry. However, it is required to pay attention to how much it is desirable to subdivide the HS code when obtaining the trade imbalance index by item. The US-China trade war is likely to be a long-term war because it is an economic hegemony battle on the global stage. Therefore, in order for the U.S. to overcome the large trade deficit with China, the followings should be considered. First, it is necessary to review the export strengthening plan for the comparative advantage and absolute advantage item group. Second, high value-added strategy is needed to improve the constitution of inferior items in export competitiveness and to win the front with quality. Third, it is necessary to reduce import dependence on China and overcome the huge trade deficit by diversifying import and export lines. Fourth, selective response strategies for the core items of the trade deficit will be more effective than hegemonic and all-out trade war. 본 논문은 미국의 對중국 무역역조현상이 미·중간 무역전쟁으로 비화되고 있는 상황 속에서, 미국의 對중국 무역적자를 측정할 적합한 무역불균형지수(TII)를 개발하고 이를 미·중 무역수지분석에 적용해 봄으로써 무역불균형 분석도구로서의 타당성을 검증하는데 소기의 목적을 두고 있다. 첫째로, 새로운 TII지수를 적용하여 2009년부터 2018년까지 10년간의 미-중간 무역불균형을 분석해 본 결과, TII는 미국의 대외무역 구조분석 뿐만 아니라 상품구조분석에서도 유효한 도구로 활용 가능함이 확인되었다. TII는 국가별, 산업별, 품목별로 산출이 가능하기 때문에 무역당사자간 무역마찰의 발생가능성을 예견할 수 있을 뿐만 아니라, 일국의 특정국가와의 무역수지를 모니터링하고 복수 국가와의 무역불균형 정도를 상호 교차 비교할 수 있고 쌍무무역에 있어서 특정산업의 수출 및 수입특화의 정도와 산업내 비교우위경쟁력을 가늠할 수 있었다. 그렇지만 HS code의 세분화 정도에 유의하면서 여타 기존 지수와 병용하는 것이 바람직할 것으로 보였다. 둘째로, 미-중 무역전쟁은 글로벌 무대에서의 패권다툼 양상을 보이고 있기 때문에 장기전으로 갈 가능성이 커 보인다. 따라서 미국이 對중 무역역조현상을 극복하기 위해서는 비교우위 및 절대우위 품목군에 대한 수출강화 방안을 재검토할 필요성이 있으며, 수출경쟁력 열위품목에 대한 체질개선을 통해 품질로 정면승부를 거는 고부가가치화전략이 필요해 보인다. 또한 중국에 대한 수입의존도를 줄이고 수출입선 다변화로 무역역조현상을 구조적으로 개선할 필요가 있다. 마지막으로 패권주의적이고 전면적인 무역전쟁 보다는 對중 무역적자의 핵심품목군에 대한 선별적이고 국지적인 대응전략이 더 효과적일 것이라 사료된다.