냉동 오징어 수요의 수입대체관계 비교 분석 -로테르담모형과 준이상수요체계를 중심으로-

우경원,신용민 한국수산경영학회 2022 수산경영론집 Vol.53 No.1

The domestic catch of squid is decreasing every year. Import volume is increasing to replace these domestic products. Import volume is expected to increase in the future, so it is necessary to study import substitution. Therefore, in this study, after selecting frozen squid, which accounts for the majority of imported squid, as the target fish species, China, Chile and Peru, which account for the majority of frozen squid imports, will be selected as the target countries for analysis. Then, the demand function of squid is estimated using the Rotterdam model, the inverse Rotterdam model, AIDS and inverse AIDS, which are the simultaneous equation demand types, and then elasticity is derived. After that, these models are compared in terms of significance, theoretical fit and practical fit. 본 연구는 수산물 수요모형에 대한 비교연구이다. 냉동오징어의 수입대체관계를 대상으로 로테르담모형, 역로테르담모형, AIDS, 역AIDS의 네 가지 모형을 각각 도출한 후, 각 모형의 현실적합도를 비교 분석하고자 하였다. 오징어는 고등어나 연어와는 달리 특정 국가의 수입점유율이 높지 않고, 여러 국가에서 분산되어 수입되는 어종이다. 이로 인해 대체관계나 보완관계가 명확하게 분석된다면, 특정 국가로부터의 수입량이 감소하거나 가격이 증가하였을 때 보다 탄력적으로 다른 국가로 대체할 수 있다. 따라서 이들 간 대체관계를 분석하는 것이 중요하다. 대체관계만을 고려하는 보상가격탄력/신축성을 기준으로 보았을 때 대부분의 모형에서 한국과 중국, 그리고 칠레와 페루는 대체관계로 나타났다. 이는 칠레와 페루는 소위 대왕오징어 종을 위주로 생산하며, 한국과 중국은 유사한 종을 생산하기 때문으로 생각된다. 이러한 점에서 한국, 중국 대 페루, 칠레 간의 대체관계는 뚜렷하게 나타나지 않았다. 따라서 향후 오징어 공급관리정책을 실시할 때 이를 반영할 필요가 있을 것이다. 모형의 설명력에 관해 비교하면, 계수의 유의성, 이론적합도, 현실설명력 등의 부문에서 여러 모형들을 비교한 결과, 계수의 유의성 측면에서는 역AIDS모형이 다른 모형들에 비해 비교적 우수한 것으로 나타났고, 비보상가격탄력성 측면에서는 역로테르담모형의 계수 유의성도 우수하게 나타났다. 수요이론적 적합도 측면에서는 동차성 제약과 대칭성 제약이 부과된 로테르담 및 역로테르담모형이 무제약 AIDS 및 역AIDS에 비해 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 현실성 측면에서는 탄력성의 부호나 계수 유의성 등을 고려하였을 때 역수요모형이 일반 수요모형에 비해 비교적 적합하게 나타났다 로테르담 모형과 역로테르담 모형은 단순 비교가 어려우나, 종속변수가 동일한 AIDS와 역AIDS의 경우 역AIDS의 결정계수가 더 높게 나타났다. 이는 활오징어나 선어에 비해 냉동오징어가 보관면에서 용이함에도 역수요모형이 바람직하다고 볼 수 있다. 이러한 연구 결과는 향후 특정 국가에서의 오징어 생산이 감소하는 상황이 발생한다면, 그에 대한 수입 전략에 이용할 수 있을 것이다.

AIDS를 이용한 주요 소비어종의 가격탄력성 추정에 관한 연구

박유정(Yoo-Jeong Park),박철형(Cheol-Hyung Park) 한국해양비즈니스학회 2018 해양비즈니스 Vol.- No.39

In this study, the system of demand functions for fishery products was estimated by using AIDS (Almost-Ideal Demand System) model based on consumer theory. The representative Korean fishery species used in our analysis were mackerels, hairtails, squids and yellow corvinas. We found the following results of the study. First, according to the diagnostic test results, the symmetry of the model was rejected while the homogeneity was accepted at 5% level of significance. Second, the expenditure and price elasticities of both mackerels and squids were estimated to be elastic while those of yellow corvinas most inelastic. Third, the sign of cross-price elasticities were turned out to be positive confirming the relationship of substitutes in demand among them. Finally, as the results of the exogenous variables analysis, the demand for mackerels only had statistically significant positive income elasticity as a normal good. Seasonal changes in demands are identified by indicating that more demands for hairtails in spring and summer than in winter, and that more demands for mackerels in summer and autumn than in winter. Demands for squids was less in all other seasons than winter, and demands for yellow corvinas was increasing in the order of spring, winter, and summer.

국내 통신 수요탄력성 추정에 관한 연구

김원년,윤수진,제상영 한국자료분석학회 2019 Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society Vol.21 No.6

The demand for domestic telecommunication continues to grow due to changes in the spending structure of household consumption and the development of information and telecommunication technology. The aim of this study is to estimate the income elasticities and price elasticities for telecommunication in Korea. Data for this study were collected using the household income and expenditure survey data of the Statistics Korea. The LA/AIDS approach using SUR method is used for the estimation of quarterly observations from 2003 to 2015. The model constructs a telecommunication demand system which is consisted of food, housing, telecommunication, and others. As a result, income elasticities of food, housing, and telecommunication were between 0 and 1, indicating that all three goods were necessity goods and were inelastic to income. Also, own-price elasticities of food, housing, and telecommunication were negative, indicating that the theory of demand, which says demand decreases as prices rise. Especially, in the case of telecommunication, absolute value was less than 1 is means goods is inelastic to price. These results show how much a change in price due to the emergence of a new communications market will affect aggregate demand. 국내 통신 수요는 가계 소비의 지출구조 변화와 정보통신기술의 발달로 인하여 계속하여 증가하고 있다. 따라서 통신 수요분석에 관한 연구가 필요한 시점이다. 본 연구는 2003년 1분기부터 2015년 4분기까지 통계청 분기별 가계동향조사를 이용하여 한국 통신수요의 소득탄력성과 가격탄력성을 추정하였다. 분석을 위해 LA/AIDS모형에 표면상무관회귀모형을 적용하여 가계지출항목을 식료품, 주거, 통신, 기타항목이 포함된 4개의 수요체계를 구성하여 추정하였다. 분석 결과, 첫째, 식료품, 주거, 통신의 소득탄력성이 모두 양(+)의 값이며 0과 1 사이의 값을 가지는 것으로 나타남에 따라 세 재화 모두 필수재이며 소득에 대하여 비탄력적인 재화인 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 식료품, 주거, 통신의 자기가격탄력성이 음(-)의 값으로 나타남에 따라 가격이 상승하면 수요가 감소하는 수요이론과 부합한 결과가 도출되었다. 통신의 경우 자기가격탄력성의 절댓값이 1보다 작아 가격에 대하여 비탄력적인 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 최근 5G, 폴더블 폰과 같은 새로운 통신서비스의 등장으로 인한 가격변동이 총수요를 얼마나 변동시킬지에 대한 시사점을 제시한다.

과일 수요의 계절성과 경합성

김성용,김준업,이용선 한국농촌경제연구원 2015 농촌경제 Vol.38 No.4

We emphasize the role of seasonality in fruits demand and extend the inverse AIDS model to incorporate seasonality and product availability into the demand. Estimation results show that own flexibilities are different across seasons, and the degree of q-substitutability between domestic and imported fruits is varying dependent upon seasons, as well. In the demand for most fruits, own price flexibilities are relatively smaller at in-season rather than at out-of-season. Imported oranges are found to compete with pears, watermelons and Korean melons in spring, and peaches in summer, while bananas being imported into the domestic market all the year round are mostly competing with apples in both summer and fall, Korean melons and grapes in fall, and pears in winter. Parameter estimates on substitutions between domestic and imported fruits might be useful to design a marketing strategy for domestic fruits and/or public support programs for those producers.

스포츠와 엔터테인먼트의 역수요 체계

성호준 ( Seng Hojun ) 인천대학교 스포츠과학연구소 2021 스포츠科學硏究誌 Vol.34 No.0

스포츠와 엔터테인먼트는 생산과 동시에 소비가 이루어져야 한다는 점에서 소멸되기 쉬운 상품으로 간주 될 수 있다. 또한, 공간과 시간의 제약으로 인하여 초과 수요를 만족시키기 어렵다. 따라서, 스포츠와 엔터테인먼트 관련 상품들의 공급은 고정적이며 공급자는 가격수용자가 된다. 그러나, 만약 이러한 상품들을 절대적으로 통제할 수 있다면 공급자가 가격수용자가 아닐 수 있다. 이런 맥락에서, 본 연구는 스포츠와 엔터테인먼트의 수요자들을 대상으로 역수요 체계를 적용하여 시장 장악력과 수요의 대체 효과를 보고자 한다. 세부적으로, 한 개의 기업이 소유하고 있는 3개의 시설에서 제공되는 다양한 이벤트의 수요를 조사할 것이다. Sport games or other entertainment are perishable commodities as its consumption and production occurs simultaneously and the product vanishes immediately after the use. Additionally, excessive demand cannot be accommodated due to the space and time limitation. Hence, supply for these events therefore are fixed and the providers and the ticket retailers then becomes price takers. Nonetheless, if these commodities are strictly regulated by the suppliers, this may not be true. In this context, the core objective of the current study is to apply inverse demand system of sport and entertainment consumers in one of the major cities in the United States to examine market power and substitutability in demand. Specifically, demand for variety of activities in three different venues which is owned by a single firm will be estimated.

QUAIDS를 이용한 국내 연체류 수산물 소비 구조 분석

박지현,박철형 한국해양비즈니스학회 2021 해양비즈니스 Vol.- No.50

The demand function of consumable mollusks in Korea was estimated using the unconstrained QUAIDS with the addition of seasonal dummy. And the results of estimating expenditure and price elasticity based on the estimated demand function are as follows. Among the six varieties, cuttlefish, squid, and Hanchi showed that the expenditure elasticity of demand was greater than 1, indicating that the change in demand according to the change in total expenditure on aquatic products was elastic. For baby octopus, small octopus, and octopus, the elasticity of demand for expenditure is between 0 and 1, indicating that the change in demand according to the change in total expenditure on aquatic products is inelastic. As a result of the price elasticity analysis, the price elasticity of the five varieties was negative. As a result, when the price increased, consumption decreased and it was analyzed as a normal good that obeys the law of demand. In the case of Hanchi, non-significant results were derived in the uncompensated price elasticity, and in the compensated price elasticity, a positive number appeared, indicating that consumption increases when the price increases.

Estimation of the Demand Elasticities of Meat in South Korea: A System-wide Approach

김원년,Altan-Erdene Batbayar,Khishigt Dandarchuluun 한국자료분석학회 2015 Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society Vol.17 No.2

The aim of this study is to estimate the price and expenditure elasticities for meat in Korea. We construct a meat demand system which is consisted of four equations related with beef, pork, chicken and other raw meat. SUR method is used for the estimation over the micro-data covering 311,779 quarterly observations from 2003 to 2012. The estimated expenditure elasticities were all positive and statistically significant. Expenditure elasticities for beef was greater than one, indicating that beef can be considered luxury goods. Although the expenditure elasticity for other meat, pork, and chicken are less than one, these are close enough to one, which is the cut-off point between luxury and necessity goods. The compensated and uncompensated own price elasticities and cross-price elasticities were statistically significant and theoretically acceptable.

비주류 음료의 수요탄력성 추정에 관한 연구

김원년,민대홍,제상영 한국자료분석학회 2019 Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society Vol.21 No.1

Changes in household consumption patterns since the 1990s have had a major impact on the non-alcoholic beverage (coffee, tea, juice·other beverages). The study of the increase of consumption expenditure and the change of expenditure structure is important for judging consumer's desire as well as the level of dietary. In order to analyze the interrelation between non-alcoholic beverage since 2000, this study set four demand equations through linear approximate almost ideal demand system and estimated by seemingly unrelated regression. As a result, the income elasticity was calculated as 0.3363, 0.2494, and 0.4618, respectively and the self-price elasticity was all negative. This means that non-alcoholic beverage was both normal and mandatory for household expenditure items. Also, according to the results of cross elasticity estimated, tea and juice·other beverages complement each other, but coffee is considered as a substitute for tea and juice·other beverages. This is a micro-base of how the economic shock of a detailed item changes aggregate demand. 1990년대 이후 진행된 가계소비 형태의 변화는 비주류 음료(커피, 차, 주스·기타음료)에도 큰 영향을 주었다. 2000년대 이후, 비주류 음료 간 상호관계를 분석하기 위해 본 연구에서는 준이상수요체계모형을 통한 4개의 수요방정식을 설정하고 표면무관회귀방법으로 추정하였다. 그 결과, 커피, 차, 주스·기타음료의 소득탄력성은 각각 0.3363, 0.2494, 0.4618이며, 자기가격탄력성은 모두 음수가 산출되었다. 이는 비주류 음료가 정상재이면서 필수재임을 의미하고, 소비자 이론에도 부합한다. 본 연구에서는 차와 주스·기타음료의 자기가격탄력성의 절댓값이 1을 초과하는 것을 통해 자기가격의 증가로 인한 대체가 매우 탄력적으로 이뤄지고 있음을 확인했다. 또한, 비주류 음료 간 교차탄력성의 추정결과에 따르면 차와 주스·기타음료는 서로 보완하는 관계를 가지고 있었지만, 커피는 차와 주스·기타음료를 대체하는 상품으로 산출되었다. 따라서 차 가격의 증가는 커피의 소비를 증가시키지만 차와 주스·기타음료의 소비는 감소시켰다. 이러한 결과는 비주류 음료의 특성을 제시할 뿐만 아니라 세부 품목에서 발생하는 경제적 충격이 총수요를 얼마나 변동시키는지에 관한 미시적 기초가 된다.

IAIDS를 이용한 수산물의 가격신축성 추정에 관한 연구

한다정,박철형 한국해양비즈니스학회 2019 해양비즈니스 Vol.- No.44

The purpose of this study is to explain ‘Has the demand structure for fisheries products still have its unique characteristics which is separate from common market?’ based on the current situation analysis of the Korean main fisheries products and econometric analysis. In the meantime, many studies suggested that the Inverse demand model is suitable for describing the structure of demand for fisheries products as the quantity supplied within a given period is consumed and prices are adjusted accordingly by this. Therefore, using the typical Inverse demand model, IAIDS, we estimated the Price flexibilities(including Scale flexibilities) of major fisheries products in South-Korea and reviewed whether the estimated results are realistic. According to the analysis result, like the coincidence between reality, the Inverse demand model is more suitable for explaining the consumption structure of Korean fisheries products. And it shows that the prices of species mainly supplied by imports or aquaculture are more sensitive to changes in consumption than prices of other species like mackerel, hairtail. Namely, It also can be thought that suppliers can affect prices of the species supplied by imports or aquaculture by adjusting supply of them flexibly according to demand. However, this means those products are produced under a flexible supply structure. Therefore, this should be considered in subsequent studies.

전국 도시근로가구의 집계교통수요함수 분석

윤재호 대한국토·도시계획학회 2002 國土計劃 Vol.37 No.4

In this paper, a complete system of travel demand equations using almost ideal demand system has been estimated with Korean urban labor houshold expenditure data. Demands for the city bus mode, intercity bus mode, taxi mode, train mode, subway mode, gasoline, and other goods and services are estimated by the Zellner's iterative seemingly unrelated regression method. The demand model is used to compute the elasticites of demand for each travel mode with respect to its own price, prices of other modes, and income(expenditure). The results show: (a) the price elasticity of marshallian demand for taxi, gasoline, city bus, and subway modes are inelastic in ascending order with the value of -0.49, -0.74, -0.87, -0.83, respectively. (b) the price elasticity of demand for intercity bus and train modes are elastic with the value of -1.55 and -1.42 respectively; (c) the cross price elasticities of demand for travel modes are somewhat mixed with or without reasons; (d) the income elasticity of demand for gasoline is elastic with the value of 1.56; (e) the income elasticity of demand for train, city bus, subway, taxi, intercity bus modes are inelastic in descending order with the value of 0.55, 0.49, 0.43, 0.17, and 0.06, respectively.