http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
“China Threat” Discourses of the Trump Administration: Overblown or Lopsided
김지운 연세대학교 미래사회통합연구센터 2019 Journal of Conflict and Integration Vol.3 No.2
Truly, China’s rise is remarkable. Under the circumstances, the Trump administration has officially defined China as a main strategic rival. However, it is argued, the most recent “China Threat” discourses the current U.S. government disseminates lack grounds and balance: they are exaggerated or prejudiced. China’s capability to challenge the U.S. is still limited. In trade, China has benefited the U.S. as well. As of today, the real danger to the U.S. is not China per se; it is the official version of “China Threat” discourses of its own as they would probably evolve to be a self-fulfilling prophesy.
The “Thucydides Trap”? Still an Overblown Theory to China under Xi Jinping
김지운 국방대학교 국가안전보장문제연구소 2017 The Korean Journal of Security Affairs Vol.22 No.1
Many scholars and policymakers have struggled with the question whether a rising China will challenge the U.S. dominance and then what the future world would look like. Graham Allison recently suggested the “Thucydides Trap” as his answer to the puzzle, stressing the possibility for the two great powers to go to war. However, even if China under Xi Jinping has been more assertive and revealed its willingness to protect its national interests and enhance its global stature, its capacity for the willingness is still limited, especially when compared to that of the United States. China’s domestic challenges affecting its GDP size; insufficient stock of manufactured, human, and natural capital; lack of technical readiness; relatively small budget for the military and, in particular, small size of nuclear forces; and, poor quality of strategic relations, restrain the increase of China’s capacity. Considering the conditions, this paper argues that the “Thucydides Trap” is an inflated theory; because of China’s power deficit, there remains the power disparity between itself and the United States, which, in turn, will help the two countries not to fall into the “trap.”
김지운 한국개발연구원 2018 KDI Journal of Economic Policy (KDI JEP) Vol.40 No.3
This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of an enhancement in unemployment benefits in Korea. In particular, I quantify the welfare effect of two specific policy chances which have been mainly discussed among policymakers in recent years: increasing wage replacement rates by 10%p and extending maximum benefit durations by one month. To this end, I build and calibrate an overlapping generation model which reflects the heterogeneity of the unemployed and the specificity of the unemployment insurance (UI) system in Korea. The quantitative analysis conducted here shows that extending maximum benefit durations by one month improves social welfare, whereas increasing wage replacement rates by 10%p deteriorates social welfare. Extending maximum benefit durations is applied to potentially all the UI recipients, including unemployed workers whose wage before job loss is relatively low and whose marginal utility is relatively high. However, increasing wage replacement rates is applied to only a small number of UI recipients whose wage before job loss is relatively high, while the increase in the UI premium is passed onto all of the employed. This study suggests that given the current UI system and economic environment in Korea, it is more desirable to extend maximum benefit durations rather than to increase wage replacement rates in terms of social welfare.
Reassessing the Inflows and Outflows of Unemployment in Korea
김지운,한종석 한국경제학회 2019 The Korean Economic Review Vol.35 No.1
Using data from the Economically Active Population Survey from 1986 to 2014, we comprehensively examine Korean unemployment dynamics using worker flows: inflow rates and outflow rates. We estimate both flow rates by carefully correcting for time aggregation bias, and quantify the contribution of changes in each flow rate to unemployment variability through steady-state and non-steady-state decompositions. Our baseline analysis reports the average of inflow rates as 1.6% and that of outflow rates as 48%. Moreover, despite the small size of the inflow rates, inflows account for 90% of unemployment variability. The significant contribution of inflows to unemployment fluctuation still appears even under a three-state model that includes inactive workers and heterogeneous flow rates by reasons for unemployment. The large contribution of inflows to unemployment changes despite high outflow rates is a unique feature of the Korean labor market not seen in previous studies of OECD countries.