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      • KCI등재후보

        시기별 거시경제 환경변화에 따른 주택시장의 가격변동성 연구

        김리영(Kim, LeeYoung),서원석(Seo, Wonseok) 한국부동산학회 2013 不動産學報 Vol.53 No.-

        1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study is to investigate the time series impact of macroeconomic change on casual relationship between apartment resale price and cheonse price during exchange and financial crises. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study mainly used granger causality analysis to investigate the causal relationship between apartment and cheonse prices when significant economic change has occurred. For that, this study obtained various macro economic data and apartment prices from Jan 1988 to Dec 2011. (3) RESEARCH RESULTS This study found that Korea housing market became lively when economic cycle became a stable after IMF period. It also showed that a signal for resale price granger-caused a signal cheonse price in the housing market after 1990's. However, the cheonse price couldn't have casual relationship to resale price specifically during the foreign exchange and financial crises. 2. RESULTS The results of this study indicates that housing market in Korea has very sensitive to the economic crisis. In particular, in that period, resale price can affect cheon price significantly, the housing policy for cheonse price stabilization should first focus on its relationship to the resale price.

      • KCI등재

        원룸형 도시형생활주택 공급에 영향을 미치는 도시공간특성 연구

        김리영 ( Lee Young Kim ),서원석 ( Won Seok Seo ) 한국부동산분석학회 2012 不動産學硏究 Vol.18 No.4

        This study aims at analyzing the decision factors affecting the studio type of urban-life housing supply among 230 cities, and the differences between cities supplied the studio type of urban-life housing and cities with no housing supply. The results of this study are as follows. First, the cities with housing supply and no supply have their unique urban characteristics in terms of household, economic and industrial, housing and infrastructure features. Second, the decision characteristics affecting studio type of urban-life housing supply are more likely related to housing, economic and industrial, and infrastructure characteristics. Third, the housing supply is strongly related to younger working households rather than aged or students. Fourth, it has been argued that the housing supply may worse urban residential environment because the urban-life housing law alleviates parking space regulation for increasing the urban-life housing supply. However, this study finds that it may not be a big problem because the cities constructed the housing have higher rate of public transportation use. Finally, this study gives a good understanding that housing policy should focus on the inherent urban characteristics of each city. Moreover, a drastic switch in housing policy is necessary, so that many legal authorities for housing owned by the central government should be transferred to local governments.

      • KCI등재

        VECM을 이용한 외환 및 금융위기 경제여건 변화가 대도시 주택시장에 미치는 영향 비교

        김리영(Kim, LeeYoung),서원석(Seo, Wonseok) 한국부동산학회 2014 不動産學報 Vol.56 No.-

        1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of economic changes during foreign exchange crisis and financial crisis periods on metropolitan housing market, specifically focusing on seoul housing market, between 1998 and 2013. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study used granger causality analysis and vector error correction model (VECM) to find periodical relationship between seoul housing market and macroeconomic variables when world economic situation has changed. (3) RESEARCH FINDINGS This study found that seoul housing market was significantly affected by the critical economic phase, such as foreign exchange and financial crises. Typically mortgage rate had the most great impact on housing sales price. The results also showd that housing sales price granger caused a jeonse price during the critical economic phase. 2. RESULTS The implications of this study are twofold. First, seoul housing market is very sensitive to the economic crisis. Second, it is necessary to understand that housing policy has different impact when dissimilar economic crises occur.

      • KCI등재

        수도권 연담도시 간 인구이동과 주택시장의 변동성 분석

        김리영(Kim Lee Young),서원석(Seo Won seok) 한국부동산학회 2017 不動産學報 Vol.71 No.-

        본 연구는 주택가격에 중점을 두고 주택시장과 인구이동의 관련성과 영향을 확인하는 목적을 가지고 수행되었다. 구체적으로 수도권 내 인접한 연담도시의 주택가격 변동은 인구이동의 원인으로 작용하는 지, 주택가격 변동과 인구이동의 관계는 유사규모의 연담도시 간에 차별적인 특성을 보이는지를 그랜저인과분석과 벡터자기회귀모형을 통해 파악하고자 하였다. 연구결과 주택가격 변동과 인구이동의 관련성 및 영향이 확인되었는데, 특히 해당지역의 가격변동 뿐만 아니라 인접한 연담도시와의 영향이 존재하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 전세가격 변동에 의한 주변지역으로의 인구이동이 나타난 것을 확인하였는데, 이 과정에서 임차가구의 이동이 중점적으로 이루어졌음을 파악하였다. 이 결과는 인구이동 과정에서 임차가구의 비자발적 이동일 수 있다는 사실을 보여주고 있으며, 이에 따라 본 연구는 주거이동에 따른 임차가구의 주거안정에 대한 관심이 필요함을 시사하고 있다. 또한 주택정책의 효율성을 위해서는 해당지역 뿐만 아니라 인접한 연담도시의 주택시장 모니터링이 함께 이루어질 필요가 있다는 점을 함께 확인하였다. 1. CONTENTS (1) RESEARCH OBJECTIVES The Purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between housing market volatility and population migration. In particular, this study focuses on whether housing price fluctuations in metropolitan conurbation cities cause population migration, and whether housing market volatility and population migration have different features between the conurbation. (2) RESEARCH METHOD This study analyzed the research purpose using the granger casuality analysis and VAR(Vector Auto Regressive) analysis. For the analysis, this study focuses on adjacent conurbation cities in seoul metropolitan area. (3) RESEARCH RESULTS This study found that there is a significant relationship between housing market volatility and population migration in metropolitan conurbation. In addition, it is confirmed that the migration to the adjacent cities is caused by the rent price change. Specifically, it is found that the rent price is more relevant to the migration than the house sale price. 2. RESULTS This study suggests that involuntary movements of renter household may be involved in the migration, indicating that interest in residential stability of the renter household is necessary. It also confirms that it is important to monitor the housing market of the adjacent cities as well as the local city for the efficient housing policy.

      • KCI등재

        서울시 재건축 사업지역 내 초등학교 학생수 변동요인 분석

        김리영(Lee Young Kim) 한국주거학회 2023 한국주거학회 논문집 Vol.34 No.6

        Decreasing school age population is a common phenomenon. However, it is also seen that the number of elementary school students increases in certain areas where reconstruction takes place. The purpose of the study was to explore the characteristics of reconstruction projects where the number of elementary school students increases despite the general decrease in the number of students. The results were as follows : 1) Predicting the number of students by applying general criteria without considering regional characteristics could lead to under or excessive estimation of primary school demand depending on the region. 2) Demand for new or extended elementary schools in the Gangnam area may increase in the future compared to other regions. In addition, accessibility to students living in areas with poor educational conditions may be reduced. Therefore, various studies in terms of student placement need to be steadily conducted in consideration of existing urban development projects such as reconstruction and regional characteristics.

      • KCI등재
      • KCI등재

        세종시 출범 이후 수도권과 충청권 주택 가격변동의 연계성 분석

        김리영(Leeyoung Kim) 한국감정원 연구개발실 2021 부동산분석 Vol.7 No.3

        이 연구는 세종시 건설 이후 충청권 주택시장은 서울에 종속되어 나타나고 있는지. 아니면 독립적인 시장을 형성하고 있는지, 그리고 충청권 내에서 지역 간 주택가격 변동의 양상을 확인하고 정책적 시사점을 제시하고자 하였다. 연구결과를 요약하면, 세종시를 조성한 이후의 세종시를 포함한 충청권 주택시장은 서울 주택시장과는 차별적인 시장을 형성하고 있다. 그리고 충청권 내 지역 간 가격변동의 연계에서 대전시 가격변동이 중요한 매개역할을 하고 있다. 최근, 주택정책은 서울을 중심으로 한 수도권 주택가격 급등에 따른 수요에 대한 규제 정책을 전국적으로 적용하고 있다. 정부의 수요 억제 정책은 주택보급률이 낮은 수도권을 대상으로 시행되고 있지만, 지방은 주택보급률이 100%를 초과하는 상황이다. 지방에 대해서도 수도권과 동일한 규제를 적용한다면, 지방 주택시장의 위축과 왜곡이 나타날 가능성이 크다는 점에서 지방 주택시장의 여건을 고려한 차별적인 정책 수립이 필요함을 시사한다. This study proposed the answers of the following questions: have housing markets in Chungcheong province been dependent on those in Seoul since the establishment of Sejong or the other around? and how have a spillover effect of housing price fluctuations among districts in Chungcheong been? The results were as follows. Since the start of Sejong, housing markets in Chungcheong including Sejong have formed different ones from Seoul and been influenced more by Gyeonggi than by Seoul. Housing price fluctuations of Chungcheong proved to play an important role in those of Daejeon. The price fluctuations of Daejeon had a larger impact on those of Chungcheong than the metropolitan province did. The fluctuations of Sejong had a little influence on those of Chungcheong relatively. It also was an evidence that the housing markets in Chungcheong were different from those in Seoul. Recent housing policies concentrated on demand reduction to stabilize housing prices in metropolitan areas as well as Seoul. The housing supply rate was over 100% in non-metropolitan regions, but under 100% in metropolitan ones. If restrictions against the non-metropolitan is the same as the metropolitan, it is likely to shrink the housing demand and distort the housing market in the non-metropolitan. In terms of conditions of the both regions, policy discrimination of the metropolitan from the non-metropolitan is expected on the basis of consideration of the housing markets in the non-metropolitan.

      • KCI등재
      • KCI우수등재

        연령별 인구이동이 주택가격 변화에 미치는 영향 연구

        김리영(Kim, Lee-Young) 대한국토·도시계획학회 2013 國土計劃 Vol.48 No.5

        The purpose of this study to examine the relation between the migration according to age in the life cycle and house prices, and identify the effects of the migration according to age on house prices. To this end, this study has analyzed the relation between the net migration according to age and house prices in metropolitan area through Granger causality analysis and VAR model. The findings of the analysis are as follows. The effects of age on house prices vary depending on region, and CD interest rates have a universal effect on house prices. In particular, the migration of the age group over 60 in Seoul and of the age group in 20s in Inchon have a great effect on house prices whereas the home supply in Gyeonggi-do has a greater effect on house prices than the migration. The findings of this study suggest an implication that age has an effect on the house prices in individual regions, which indicates it is essential that local government takes differentiated measures. It is essential for Seoul to take account of the fact the age group above 60 with great necessity for controlling house consumption account for a greater part of the population. In view of the fact that there is the likelihood of house movement in older age groups in the regions with high house prices, it is essential that Seoul needs to prepare the housing policy.

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