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곽상만 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2000 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.1 No.2
As a first attempt, the model focuses only on the diplomatic meeting issues between the South and North. The model aggregates diplomatic issues into 5 categories; economic issues, security issues, infrastructure issues, cultural issues, and past problems. It assumes that there would not be any dramatic changes between the two counties. It is a conceptual model composed of around 200 variables, and should not be used as a forecast tool. However, it captures most of the logics discussed in the papers and conferences concerning the South and North Korea relations. Many sensitivity studies and Monte Carlo simulations have shown that the simulation results matches with mental models of experts; that is the model can be used as a learning tool or as a secondary opinion until the data required by the model is collected. In order to analyze the current situation, five scenarios are simulated and analyzed; the functional approach, the conditional approach, the balanced approach, the circumstantial approach, and the strategic approach. The functional approach represents that the South makes efforts in the area where the possibility of agreement is high for the next 10 years. The conditional approach is a scenario where the South impose all difficult issues as conditions for resolving other diplomatic issues. The balanced approach is resolving the five issues with the same priorities, while the circumstantial approach is resolving issues which seem to be resolved easily. Finally, another optimum approach has been seek using the system dynamics model developed. The optimum strategy (it is named as the strategic approach) was strikingly different from other four approaches. The optimum strategy is so complicated that no one could find it with mental model (or by just insights). Considering that the system dynamic model used to find the optimum is a simplified (maybe over simplified) version of the reality, it is concluded that a well designed system dynamic model would be of great help resolving the complicated diplomatic problems in any kind.
손창섭의 신문연재소설 연구 -<얄구진 비>와 <미스테이크>를 중심으로-
곽상인(郭相仁) 한국현대소설학회 2012 현대소설연구 Vol.- No.49
In this paper, I want to focus on the serial novels in newspaper Nasty rain and Mistake written by Shon, Chang-sup. Nasty rain was discovered recently, besides it wasn't perfect as Shon, Chang-sup's first novel. On the other hand Mistake has been regarded ‘the mass of the paper’ not ‘literature’. So two all novels wasn't investigation by people the while, althoug those referenced to ‘an annual report’. Nasty rain was included Shon, Chang-sup's specific character in 1950's novel. For example ‘the cause of disease abnormality’,‘gloomy mood’, ‘images of rain and room’, ‘style of ~is’. Mistake had all features by Shon, Chang-sup's short pieces in 1950's, also the subject and motives were connected serial novels in newspaper in 1960's Consequently this study was to look the literary scene in 1950's to 1960's, so two novels will become known these consciousness. an instance character's self-contempt, cognition of the world through the disavow-consciousness by Nasty rain, and Mistake express to reveal the character's desire through the repetition behavior and what the character think about ‘marriage’. The last was analyzed serial novels in newspaper to release the label ‘a self-portrait in postwar’. 본고에서는 손창섭의 최초작으로 알려진 <얄구진 비>와, 그가 1960년대에 들어 본격적으로 신문연재장편소설로 방향전환을 하기 직전에 쓴 <미스테이크>를 일차적으로 소개하고 작품의 의미를 규명해보는 데 목적을 두고자 한다. 두 작품은 손창섭이 신문에 연재한 단편소설인데, 연보에 언급되어 있음에도 불구하고 연구자들이 이에 대해 집중적인 조명을 하지 않았다. 그 이유로는 <얄구진 비>의 경우 공식적인 등단 이전의 작품이기에 완성도가 떨어진다는 점, <미스테이크>의 경우에는 신문에 연재되었기에 통속적이고 세태적인 작품으로 분류 평가되어 문학의 ‘주변’으로 취급했다는점을 들 수가 있겠다. 그러나 <얄구진 비>에는 1950년대에 손창섭이 발표한 단편소설들의 주된 특징들이 두루 담겨 있어 주목할 만하다. 아울러 <미스테이크>에는1960년대 장편들의 서사에서 발견되는 사건이나 문제들이 담겨 있기에 분석할 가치가 있다. 요컨대 <얄구진 비>에서는 1950년대 초기 비평에서 확인할 수 있는 비정상적인 병인, 우울한 정서, 비와 방의 이미지, ‘~것이다’의 문체적 특성 등이 드러나고, <미스테이크>에서는 1960년대 신문연재장편소설에 등장하는 주제와 모티프, 그리고 서사가 유사하게 연계되어 있기에 주목해야 한다. 따라서 본고에서는 두 작품을 통해 손창섭(작품)의 1950년대와 1960년대의 문학적 풍경을 바라보고자 한다. 이때 <얄구진 비>에서는 인물의 자기모멸의식과 자기 부정을 통한 세계 인식, 그리고 법적 질서에 대한 부정의식이 드러날 것이고, <미스테이크>에서는 인물이 반복적인 행동을 통해서 어떤 식으로 욕망을 표출하고 미끄러지게 하는지, 그리고 남성인물들이여성과의 관계에서 어떤 태도를 취하고, 결혼에 대해 어떠한 생각을 하는지가 드러날 것이다.
시스템다이내믹스 기법을 활용한 차급별 월간 자동차 수요 예측 모델 개발
곽상만,김기찬,안수웅,장원혁,홍정석 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2002 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.3 No.1
A system dynamics project is going on for forecasting automobile market in Korea. The project is made up of three stages, and the first stage has been wrapped up. As the first attempt, most efforts have been focused in the sound foundation rather than the exact forecast. The model consists of three sectors; the supply sector, the demand sector, and the population sector. The supply sector is a simple stock and flow diagrams representing the supply capacities of all automobile types. The major effort is made on the demand sector and the population sector. The demands are divided into three categories; replacement demands, new demands, and additional demands. The model applies "one are per person" concept, and assumes there will be no additional demands for a while. The replacement demands are calculated based on a simple stock and flow diagram. The new demands are calculated via Bass models; each bass model represents a diffusion for each age group. The population is divided into 101 age groups (age 0 to age 100). The model has been calibrated with past 10 year data (1990-1999), and tested for the next two years (2000-2001). The results ware acceptable, although a fine tuning is required. Now the second stage is going on, and most of efforts are made how to incorporate the economic and cultural factors.