Financial and Economic Crisis in Russia and South Korea : Common and specific Features

Mikheev, Vasily V . 한양대학교 경제연구소 1999 경제연구 Vol.20 No.2

North Korean approach to U. S. A & Japan and Soviet Policy toward Korean Peninsula

Mikheev, Vasily V. 영남대학교 통일문제연구소 1992 統一問題硏究 Vol.15 No.-

Китай и глобальное лидерство

Mikheev, Vasily,Lukonin, Sergey,Ignatev, Sergei Korea Consensus Institute(KCI) 2017 Analyses & alternatives Vol.1 No.2

The article is devoted to the theoretical and practical analysis of Chinese global leadership. The concept of leadership is applied as a methodology, which involves identifying the main factors, such as strategic power, the attractiveness of political institutions, the ability to provide acceptable ideas and the presence of allies that contribute to a comprehensive analysis of the country's leadership potential. The authors also describe the relevance of Chinese global leadership and analyze its domestic, economic and international causes. Moreover, the ''Belt and Road'' initiative is defined as the main mechanism for providing the influence of China on the global level which is now being changed its quantitative component, namely the increasing attention to the security aspects of this initiative. In addition to that, it is important to note that China maintains its economic and political positions in Africa, Central Asia and South-East Asia. Africa has a special role in the Chinese ''Belt and Road'' initiative as a recipient of Chinese investments and a site for the deployment of China's naval facilities to protect the trade routes. On the regional level, China will strive to become a leader of the trade and economic processes in the Asia-Pacific region, the South China Sea and the North Korea nuclear program issues. The American factor in modern international relations, namely so-called "Trump factor", which means the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris Agreement, will cause demand for Chinese leadership in the Asia-Pacific region and in the world as well. However, in this case a number of questions arise: is China prepared for this? Is Beijing able to bear greater responsibility? Does China have the potential for this? The article concludes that China will not become global leaders in the next 20-30 years, because of internal (political reforms) and foreign policy reasons (doctrinal formulation of foreign policy initiatives, military-political and economic power, international posture and relations with other states). The authors believe that the implementation of Chinese leadership is possible not on the condition of confrontation between China and the United States, but on the establishing of constructive relations between these countries. The last meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping showed a trend for creating channels for dialogue between Beijing and Washington, which can become the basis for interaction. An important place in the work is given to the analysis of development and forecasting the evolution of Russian-Chinese and U.S.-China relations. As for Russia, Moscow should conduct a policy that will not allow it to become a ''junior partner'' of China.

세계화의 시각에서 본 중국 본토와 아시아 태평양 지역의 상호작용과 지역 안보에 있어서의 그 영향

Mikheev, Vasky 사단법인 한국지역사회연구소 2002 地域社會 Vol.2002 No.3

위에 언급된 생각들을 요약하겠다. 첫째, 중국 본토는 앞으로 아시아 경제 협력 개발에 있어서 그 역할이 커지겠지만, 주도적인 역할을 하지는 않을 것이다. 둘째, 중국 본토의 서방과의 관계는 복잡하지만 악화될 수도 있다는 한계가 있다. 셋째, 중국적 특질을 지닌 본토의 사회주의는 시장 민주주의로 계속 발달해 나갈 것이다. 하지만 한동안은 현재의 모델을 유지하여, 시장 경제를 발달시키고 그것을 지역과 세계 경제에 통합시키면서도 정치권력은 공산당의 수중에 계속 지니고 있을 것이다. 중국 본토는 시간을 필요로 하고 본토 사회의 정치적·이데올로기적 특질에 대한 현대적 이해를 변화시킬 준비를 하기 위해 정치가들과 지식인들의 세대 변화가 필요하다. 넷째, PRC와 ROC의 관계를 세계화에 비추어 새로운 시각으로 보면 양안 관계의 발전을 위한 세로운 개념적 근거를 제시할 수 있다. 그것은 베이징과 타이페이 지도자들로 하여금 누가 옳고 그른가, 그리고 오랜 대립에서 누가 승리자이고 누가 패배자인가 하는 문제로부터 주의를 돌려 그것을 새로운 문제에 맞추도록 하는 것이다.

SOUTH - NORTH RECONCILIATION AND PROSPECTS FOR NORTH KOREA - RUSSIA RELATIONS

Mikheev, Vasily 경남대학교 극동문제연구소 2001 ASIAN PERSPECTIVE Vol.25 No.2

Китай и глобальное лидерство

Vasily Mikheev,Sergey Lukonin,Sergei Ignatev 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2017 분석과 대안 Vol.1 No.2

The article is devoted to the theoretical and practical analysis of Chinese global leadership. The concept of leadership is applied as a methodology, which involves identifying the main factors, such as strategic power, the attractiveness of political institutions, the ability to provide acceptable ideas and the presence of allies that contribute to a comprehensive analysis of the country's leadership potential. The authors also describe the relevance of Chinese global leadership and analyze its domestic, economic and international causes. Moreover, the ''Belt and Road'' initiative is defined as the main mechanism for providing the influence of China on the global level which is now being changed its quantitative component, namely the increasing attention to the security aspects of this initiative. In addition to that, it is important to note that China maintains its economic and political positions in Africa, Central Asia and South-East Asia. Africa has a special role in the Chinese ''Belt and Road'' initiative as a recipient of Chinese investments and a site for the deployment of China's naval facilities to protect the trade routes. On the regional level, China will strive to become a leader of the trade and economic processes in the Asia-Pacific region, the South China Sea and the North Korea nuclear program issues. The American factor in modern international relations, namely so-called "Trump factor", which means the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris Agreement, will cause demand for Chinese leadership in the Asia-Pacific region and in the world as well. However, in this case a number of questions arise: is China prepared for this? Is Beijing able to bear greater responsibility? Does China have the potential for this? The article concludes that China will not become global leaders in the next 20-30 years, because of internal (political reforms) and foreign policy reasons (doctrinal formulation of foreign policy initiatives, military-political and economic power, international posture and relations with other states). The authors believe that the implementation of Chinese leadership is possible not on the condition of confrontation between China and the United States, but on the establishing of constructive relations between these countries. The last meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping showed a trend for creating channels for dialogue between Beijing and Washington, which can become the basis for interaction. An important place in the work is given to the analysis of development and forecasting the evolution of Russian-Chinese and U.S.-China relations. As for Russia, Moscow should conduct a policy that will not allow it to become a ''junior partner'' of China. .

[硏究論文]Russia's New Economic Strategy in the Light of Globalization Concept

Vasily MIKHEEV 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2000 신아세아 Vol.7 No.3

경제적 지구화는 하나의 객관적 경향이며, 각국의 경제 및 금융 지도자들에 의해 추구되는 목표이다. 또한 국가경제 및 국제경제를 분석하는 하나의 방법이기도 하다. 지구화 추세 속에서 사기업과 개인들도 국제관계의 새로운 행위자로서 국제정치 문제에 관하여 나름의 이해관계를 갖게 되었다. 이와 같은 현상 속에서 지역 및 인종 갈등, 테러리즘, 마약 밀수 등과 같은 지역문제들이 세계적 관심사로 부각되는 정치적 지구화 현상이 초래되었다. 전세계 사람들은 국제문제에 대한 유사한 정보와 생각, 그리고 관심사를 갖게 되었고 개별 국가의 사회정치적 안정이 국제적 안정과 안보에 영향을 미치게 된 것이다. 러시아 내에 지구화에 대한 찬반 논쟁이 있는데 아직은 부정적인 견해가 보다 지배적이다. 국내 문제에 대한 외국의 간섭 초래, 국제문제에 대한미국의 영향력 증대, 러시아의 정치, 경제, 사회적 현실과의 부조화 등이 반대하는 사람들의 논리이다. 러시아의 신경제발전전략은 시장경제의 발전 자체를 목적이 아니라 단지 국민들의 자유롭고 풍요로운 삶을 실현하기 위한 수단으로 간주하고 있다. 이를 위하여 신경제발전전략은 사유재산권 보호, 투자환경 개선, 경제활동의 자유 최대한 보장, 행정적 장벽 철폐 등 경제의 현대화에 최고의 우선순위를 부여하고 있다. 또한 동등한 경쟁의 조건 창출, 규제의 철폐, 자본의 해외 유출 방지, 금융 및 예산 제도 개혁 등에도 많은 관심을 기울이고 있다. 그러나 신경제발전전략은 러시아 경제와 세계경제와의 통합에 대해서 단순한 원론적언급 수준에 머무르고 있으며, 아태 지역의 경제통합 추세에 대해서도 충분한 주의를 기울이지 않고 있다. 지구화 추세 속에서 러시아는 지구화 논의의 지적 주도자 역할을 수행하여야 하며, 우랄 산맥 서쪽의 러시아 경제를 유럽 시장에 통합시키고, 극동 지역의 경제를 우선 일본에, 그리고 점차 동북아 시장에 통합시키는 전략을 구사해야 한다. 특히 천연자원의 60%가 시베리아 및 극동 지역에 위치하고 있는 러시아의 지경학적 현실에 비추어, 효과적인 대 APEC 전략의 수립과 더불어 러시아의 극동 지역과 일본 간 경제 금융 연합, ASEM과 유사한 CIS와 아시아 지역 간 협력체의 창설도 진지하게 고려해 볼 필요가 있다. 러시아 정부도 지구화 추세에 대한 적응이 불가피함을 인식하게 될 것이다. 러시아의 정치 지도자들이 여전히 유럽 중심적인 태도를 견지하고 있는 상황에서, 한국이 아태 지역문제에서 러시아를 지지해 줌으로써 아태 지역 및 동북아 지역에 걸려있는 자국의 이해관계를 러시아가 주목하도록 도와줄 필요가 있다. 그 첫 조치로서 ASEM에 가입하려는 러시아의 입장을 한국이 지지하면 좋을 것이다. 또한 한국과 러시아는 대 APEC정책에서의 공조를 모색할 수 있을 것이다.

Reforms of the North Korean Economy: Requirements, Plans and Hopes

( Vasily Mikheev ) 한국국방연구원 1993 The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis Vol.5 No.1

Unabated discussions are under way in academic circles of pos- sible reforms in the DPRK, reforms understood to be the dismantling of the old totalitarian-command socialist distribution system, followed by a transformation of the political system. Three types of reforms of socialism are distinguished: the East European as the most radical, the Soviet one leaving power effectually in the hands of former partocrats who are, however, compelled to use democratic rhetoric, and the Chinese leaving power in the hands of Communists but granting freedom to individual economic initiative. Common in the social direction of all these variants is the strengthening of economic power by creation of a market, private property and a stable middle class. Understood as such, there are no-and cannot be-reforms in the DPRK since any steps in the direction of private property and political openness there are fraught with serious threats to the position of the political elite. Nevertheless political reforms already began in the late 70s and they have been on their way through several stages. Their purposes and contents differ radically, how- ever, from those of the reforms of European and Asian socialism. The purpose of economic reforms in the DPRK is not to create a middle class but to safeguard economic security for the ruling elite and meet its consumer needs in the foreign market. Reforms in the DPRK started with the establishment of a "royal court economy," a special sector with particularly extensive rights and powers in the implementation of its financial, production and foreign trade trans- actions, accountable directly to the higher Party leadership, and well isolated from the mainstream economy of the DPRK. Limited reforms in the DPRK are being implemented without propaganda and ideological formulas so beloved by the press, but they are not meant to cover the entire economy. By meeting, to a certain extent, "urgent" needs for goods in short supply and solving everyday life problems of the ruling elite, the court economy happens also to be exhausting raw materials and power resources, creating financial and social causes for widespread corruption and foreign exchange abuses in society. Even so, it is the bridge linking the DPRK internal economy with the world market, as well as enabling the world community to influence economic life in North Korea. It is through cooperation with the court economy firms at the turn of 1992-1 993 that it proved possible to drag Russian-Korean relations out of a deep crisis and begin to establish new, market-based principles of cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang that have replaced those old party bureaucratic principles of cooperation that fell along with the disintegration of the USSR.

모든이를 위한 산업보건

MI Mikheev 대한산업보건협회 1994 산업보건 Vol.76 No.-

[PacNet코너]Russian Policy Towards North Korea

Vasily MIKHEEV 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2000 신아세아 Vol.7 No.4