Demand Forecasting of New Media Services Using Competitive Bass Model and the Theory of the Niche

Hyeonju Seol,Gwangman Park,Byungun Yoon,Hakyeon Lee,Sora Lee,Youngjung Geum 대한산업공학회 2009 대한산업공학회 추계학술대회논문집 Vol.2009 No.10

New digital broadcasting services such as Internet protocol TV (IPTV) have totally been reorganizing the media industry; thus, predicting the patterns and degree of diffusion of new media services is a major topic of interest for both governments and providers. This paper proposes a new approach to forecasting demands of new media services with consideration of competitive relationships with existing services. The competitive Bass model is adopted for the purpose of prediction of diffusions. Its competition coefficients are estimated by introducing the theory of the niche. The theory of the niche originated from ecology has often been used as a framework for examining the patterns of competition in the media industry. This study develops a new integrated measure, competitive superiority, by modifying and combining the two conventional measures of the theory of the niche, niche overlap and niche superiority. The competition coefficient is then obtained by adjusting competitive superiority to meet constraints to be incorporated into the proposed competitive Bass model.

4차 산업혁명과 항공무인무기체계 발전 전망

설현주 ( Hyeonju Seol ),이수훈 ( Soo Hun Lee ),길병옥 ( Byung-ok Kil ) 미래군사학회 2017 한국군사학논총 Vol.6 No.2

Today, the 4th industrial revolution has become a major issue in all areas of the world, and the defense sector is no exception. In particular, the characteristics of the future battlefields will be further expanded through the main technologies that will lead the 4th industrial revolution. The CPS(Cyber-Physical System) will strengthen the network characteristics and the IoT(Internet of Things) will expand the information gathering ability. In addition, big data technology will contribute to providing quality information, and artificial intelligence will make the best judgment based on the information provided through big data analysis. Finally, the robot performs an operational mission on behalf of human beings. Robots are expected to affect the future weapon system more specifically. UAVs(Unmanned aerial vehicles) are already in the process of being deployed and newly developed. UCAV(Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle) is expected to be used in combination with manned aerial vehicle due to technical limitations, but UAV is expected to replace all existing aircraft. The rate at which the 4th industrial revolution affects our daily lives and national defense is different from that of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd industrial revolutions. Therefore, it is necessary to hasten the investment in research and development of the weapon system. In addition, we must hasten establishment of operational concept based on combined UAV and manned aerial vehicle operations. In the future, it will be necessary to prepare an air operations mission using only UAV.

이동형 장거리 레이더 연구개발 사업의 경제적 파급효과 분석

설현주(Hyeonju Seol),이길영(Gil-Young Lee),엄정식(Jungsik Um) 육군사관학교 화랑대연구소 2017 한국군사학논집 Vol.73 No.1

This paper presents the spillover effects for mobile long-range radar Research and Development(R&D) program to improve Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance(ISR) capability on the national economy. To evaluate the effects using inter-industry analysis, we estimate that the R&D cost of mobile long-range radar system is about 54.2 billion won, assuming the development period to be 5 years from 2017 to 2021. The analysis results show that the inducement effects for production, value added, and employment are 55.7 billion won, 16.6 billion won, and 171 people, respectively. This study provides the good example of how to evaluate the economic spillover effects of developing weapon systems domestically, showing importance and benefits of it.

KF-X 양산 사업의 경제적 파급효과 분석

설현주,Seol, Hyeonju 한국시스템엔지니어링학회 2013 시스템엔지니어링학술지 Vol.9 No.2

This study aims to analyze how much KF-X production impacts on national economy by measuring economic spread effect based on inter-industry analysis. In order to evaluate the economic impact of KF-X production, we used input-output table of year 2007 of Korea. The results shows that KF-X production induces the production of 3,129 billon won and the value added of 1,206 billon won respectively. Also there are the creation of about 13,208 employment in the industry. The results from this study can be used as a basis for the further research on whether or not KF-X production could be processed.

A Study of Psychological Effects of Pilots Depending on the Different Environments between Actual and Simulated Flights

Jinju Kim,Youngcheon Lim,Hyeonju Seol,Cheolkyu Jee,Youngseok Hong 대한인간공학회 2014 大韓人間工學會誌 Vol.33 No.3

Objective: This study aims to examine the psychological effects of pilots caused by the environmental differences between actual and simulated flights by measuring biochemical stress level and subjective stress level. Background: Currently, the flight system of the air force suffers from several problems including a limited training area, increase of complex and tangled missions and rise in oil prices. In order to overcome these problems an L-V-C (Live, Virtual, Constructive) training system has been proposed as a solution. However, to establish the effective L-V-C training system, it is required to figure out the characteristics of each system first. Also we have to solve the problems which could occur when these systems are connected together. Method: In order to measure the biochemical stress level of pilots, we investigated the differences in cortisol responses after actual and simulated flight training separately. Meanwhile, we conducted the questionnaire survey of about 40 pilots to identify the subjective stress level of pilots. Results: There was significant difference in cortisol level between actual and simulated flight tasks. However, we found that there was no significant difference in pilots" feelings about two flight tasks. Conclusion: The results from this study can be used as basis for the further research on not only how to decrease linkage errors of the L system and the V system but also how to make the L-V training system more practical. Application: The results of the analysis might help to develop the Live-Virtual-Constructive (LVC) pilot training system.

NATO 전략개념의 변화요인 고찰: 길핀의 국제체제 변화이론을 중심으로

이강경(Lee Kangkyong),설현주(Seol Hyeonju) 한국전략문제연구소 2023 전략연구 Vol.30 No.2

한반도에서 재래식 무기의 군비통제 방안 -운용적 군비통제 방안을 중심으로-

이장호 ( Lee Jangho ),설현주 ( Seol Hyeonju ) 미래군사학회 2024 한국군사학논총 Vol.13 No.1

본 논문은 한반도의 재래식 무기의 운용적 군비통제 추진 방안을 모색하는 것이다. 국제사회는 냉전종식 이후 군비통제에 대한 관심과 노력, 대상과 영역 확대를 추진하고 있다. 반면, 한반도는 군비통제보다는 군비증강이라는 심각한 상황으로 전개되고 있어서 이에 대한 진단과 해결방안 모색이 시급하다. 현재 북한은 대한민국을 북한의 주적이라고 공개적 선포와 군비통제에 대한 진정성 부재 그리고 정치적 노선이 극명하게 갈리고 있는 현 상황에서 북한을 믿고 정치적 대화가 가능하겠는가 등의 의구심을 떨칠 수가 없는 실정이다. 더구나 남북한간 위협 인식상의 상호 불균형과 보유 전력과 군사력 운용의 상이성 등의 비대칭성도 단계적·기능적 군비통제 접근방식의 한반도 적용을 어렵게 하는 요인임을 분명히 인식해야 한다. 나아가 이에 대한 포괄적인 대책강구가 한반도 비핵화와 안보를 유지함에 있어 무엇보다도 중요함을 주장하고자 한다. 따라서 세계적인 군비통제 추세에 부응하는 측면에서 한반도군비통제 실현은 군사력을 약화시키는 것이 아니다. 오히려 남북한 양측의 신뢰회복과 교류 및 협력을 통한 위협 감소는 물론 국가이익을 제고할 수 있는 ‘윈-윈 패러다임’이라는 논리를 제공하는 것이다. 이러한 현실적 문제점을 해소하기 위한 군비통제는 선택이 아니라 필연적 사안임을 강조하고 한반도에서 재래식 무기의 군비통제 추진 여건을 분석한 다음 이를 토대로 신뢰회복과 관계개선 등을 통한 운용적 군비통제 추진방안을 중심으로 간략히 제시하고자 한다. This paper aims to explore operational arms control measures for conventional weapons on the Korean Peninsula. In the wake of the Cold War's end, the international community has intensified its focus and efforts on arms control, expanding its scope and objectives. However, the Korean Peninsula is witnessing a concerning trend towards arms buildup rather than arms control, necessitating urgent diagnosis and solutions. Currently, North Korea's political stance, including its public declaration of the Republic of Korea as its main enemy, raises doubts about the feasibility of political dialogue and trust-building. Additionally, asymmetries in threat perception and military capabilities between the two Koreas present challenges in applying a step-by-step arms control approach. Emphasizing the paramount importance of a comprehensive plan for maintaining denuclearization and security on the Korean Peninsula, this paper argues that arms control is not merely an option but an inevitable necessity. By analyzing the conditions for arms control of conventional weapons on the Korean Peninsula, this paper proposes operational arms control promotion plans centered on trust-building and relationship improvement, aligning with global arms control trends.

Roadmapping for prioritisation of smartphone feature requirements based on user experiences

Suh, Yongyoon,Kim, Gilsook,Seol, Hyeonju Carfax Pub. Co 2017 Technology analysis & strategic management Vol.29 No.8

On the monitoring of the technological opportunities using patent information

Youngjung Geum,Jeonghwan Jeon,Hyeonju Seol 한국경영과학회 2010 한국경영과학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2010 No.6

Responding to the needs for objective and data-driven method for technology monitoring, this study provides the systematic method to identify the technological opportunities using the novelty detection technique. Employing the novelty detection, this paper provides the objective evidences for new technological opportunities by identifying the novel data as well as novel attribute. This paper comprises of four main parts. Firstly, as a preliminary step, patent information is collected and preprocessed. Secondly, a patent-keyword matrix is constructed based on text mining technique. Following on the keyword matrix, clustering analysis is conducted to identify the current technological trend. As the final step, a novelty detection technique is applied to identify the technological opportunities. A case study for laser lithography technology is conducted to illustrate the working of proposed approach.

On the monitoring of the technological opportunities using patent information

Youngjung Geum,Jeonghwan Jeon,Hyeonju Seol 대한산업공학회 2010 대한산업공학회 춘계학술대회논문집 Vol.2010 No.6

Responding to the needs for objective and data-driven method for technology monitoring, this study provides the systematic method to identify the technological opportunities using the novelty detection technique. Employing the novelty detection, this paper provides the objective evidences for new technological opportunities by identifying the novel data as well as novel attribute. This paper comprises of four main parts. Firstly, as a preliminary step, patent information is collected and preprocessed. Secondly, a patent-keyword matrix is constructed based on text mining technique. Following on the keyword matrix, clustering analysis is conducted to identify the current technological trend. As the final step, a novelty detection technique is applied to identify the technological opportunities. A case study for laser lithography technology is conducted to illustrate the working of proposed approach.