동남아시아 국가들의 한국 농식품 수입 가능 계층 식별을 위한 연구

정대희(Dae-Hee Chung),석준호(Jun-Ho Seok) 한국무역연구원 2023 무역연구 Vol.19 No.1

Purpose – The objective of this paper is to test whether low income countries in South-East Asian countries can import the high price and quality agri-food products of South Korea. Specifically, we divide consumers in these regions based on income level (Average, Top 10%, and Top 1% GDP per capita) to examine the exportability of those goods to South-East Asian countries. Design/Methodology/Approach – Utilizing the panel Granger causality test method of Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012), we examine which income segments in those regions can consume the high price, quality and agri-food products of Korea. Additionally, this study also uses the panel impulse-response function to figure out the which segments are more inclined to buy agri-food products of Korea. Findings – Results of the panel Granger causality test show that the incomes of only the top 10% and 1% segments of these countries lead to agri-food imports from Korea. Results of the panel impulse response function report that the top 1% segment of income group imports more compared to the top 10% segments of the income group. Research Implications – Our results imply that high quality and high price agri-food products of Korea can be exported to low-income South and South-East Asian countries. Our approach also presents that the gravity model specification smight need to be modified according to the characteristics of products.

기후변화를 고려한 쌀 토지생산성 모형의 예측력 평가

정대희(Dae Hee Chung),한두봉(Doo Bong Han) 한국환경정책학회 2018 環境政策 Vol.26 No.4

식용유 공급망에서의 가격전이 분석

정대희 ( Dae Hee Chung ),김종진 ( Kim Jongjin ) 한국식품유통학회 2023 한국식품유통학회 학술대회 Vol.2023 No.1

본 연구는 식용유 대체재 간의 가격전이 관계를 통해 유종간의 대체성을 살펴보고, 식용유 국제가격과 국내 수입단가 간의 가격전이 현상을 분석하였다. 대체성 분석결과 유종간에 서로 상이한 대체성이 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 전반적으로 대두유, 팜유, 유채유 간의 대체성이 있는 것으로 나타났고, 야자유는 다른 유종과 대체성이 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 팜유가격은 장기적으로 대두유 가격과의 비대칭적 가격전이가 있는 것으로 분석되었으며, 단기적으로는 유채유 가격과 비대칭적 가격전이가 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 식용유 국제가격과 국내 수입가격 간에는 장기적 가격전이 비대칭성을 발견하기 어려웠다. 그러나 단기적 가격 전이 형태나 시차는 유종별로 차이를 보이고 있다. 국내 식용유 산업은 수입의존도가 높기 때문에 유종간의 대체성을 전략적으로 잘 활용하면 위험관리에 도움이 될 수 있다.

기체결 FTA 이행에 따른 농산물 관세개방도 분석과 시사점 :

정대희(Dae Hee Chung),한두봉(Doo Bong Han),이상현(Sang Hyeon Lee),Masashiko Gemma 한국농식품정책학회 2017 농업경영정책연구 Vol.44 No.3

Since establishing the 2003 FTA roadmap, Korea has concluded fifteen FTA negotiations with 52 countries. Negotiations have become more complicated than in the past as multilateral FTA negotiations (Mega-FTA) have recently become more prominent. Therefore, the results of FTA negotiations that have already been concluded are becoming more important in future FTA negotiations. The purpose of this study is to analyze the openness of tariffs by agricultural products. As a result, the openness of tariffs on vegetables, short-term income forest products and special crops is low, but the openness of tariffs of meat and some dairy products is high. In addition, it is analyzed that the RCEP negotiation is more affected by the tariff reduction than the TPP negotiation. In particular, since China is involved in the RCEP negotiation, it is necessary to focus more on tariff negotiation. TPP negotiations need to focus on negotiating services and norms.

전통주 수출시장 확대 방안

어명근(Myong-Keun Eor),정대희(Dae Hee Chung),이지용(Ji Yong Lee),오세익 한국농촌경제연구원 2010 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

This research is about increasing Korean traditional wine export to foreign market. The main purpose of this research is to support export policy of traditional wine. To meet the end, the study mainly focuses on general export policies and institutional improvement. This research deals with main export markets for traditional wine. This report describes a current condition of traditional wine export market, and points out its important characteristics and inherent problems. Also analyzes the competitiveness of traditional wine in important export markets. In this research, foreign consumers’ preferences toward traditional wine is surveyed. The survey results are utilized to derive necessary policies and its future directions to increase export markets. This research categorizes traditional wine export system into five different stages and suggests policy recommendations to increase export to foreign markets on each stage. Firstly, in the production stage, it is difficult to secure the sufficient quantities and proper qualities. Not enough room for price negotiation is also a problem. To solve the problems, organizing farm to scale and government’s expenditure on R&D investment is necessary. In the commercializing stage, poor conditioned facilities and inadequate adoption of buyers’ requirements cause problems. These can be solved by providing new facilities to improve products" qualities with fostering export-specialized farms. In the export logistics stage, a lack of cold-chain system and an inefficient logistics system cause decreasing quality and increasing managerial cost problems. Also governmental export logistic subsidies cause an unnecessary side effect. Providing a proper logistic system with a new subsidy scheme is strongly recommended to enhance efficiency. In the stage of distribution in the importing countries, excessive price competitions between exporting companies cause several drawbacks such as damaging the image and price war. The government has to monitor exporting companies effectively to secure an existing market with proper policies. Finally, foreign consumers’ lack of brand awareness has to be changed. Currently, the main target customer of exporting traditional wine is overseas Korean. Supports on participating overseas food exhibitions and brand promotions, and entering local large-scale retailers are strongly recommended.

한국 농식품산업의 실효보호율 추정

송주호(Joo-Ho Song),정대희(Dae-Hee Chung) 한국관세학회 2014 관세학회지 Vol.15 No.1

When analyzing the protection rate of processed products, tariffs of raw or intermediate products should be considered together with the tariffs of final products. This study calculates the effective protection rates for processed food products and raw agricultural products in Korea using an input-output table. The estimation results show that tariff escalation is not prominent in highly processed products. Furthermore, the effective rates of protection and nominal rate of protection for raw agricultural product are lower than those of processed products. It is somewhat an unexpected result considering that Korea has maintained high tariffs for many agricultural raw products and relatively low tariffs for processed products. Main reason is that many processing companies can import raw products with low in-quota tariff rates within the TRQ system.

TPP 농업부문 협상결과와 시사점

이상현(Sang Hyeon Lee),정대희(Dae Hee Chung),안수정(Soojung Ahn) 한국농촌경제연구원 2015 한국농촌경제연구원 정책연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

The 12-country’s Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations were finally concluded on 5 October 2015 through 19 times of official meetings as well as several ministerial meetings and informal meetings. The text of TPP agreement consists of 30 chapters including elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers. In addition, it includes provisions on Rules of Origin, Trade Remedies, Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS), Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT), Investment, Cross Border Trade in Services, Financial Services, Telecommunications, Electronic Commerce, Government Procurement, Competition Policy, State-Owned Enterprises, Intellectual Property, Labour, Environment, Cooperating and Capacity Building, Competition and Business Facilitation, Development, Small and Medium-sized Businesses, Regulatory Coherence, Transparency and Anti-Corruption, Administrative and Institutional Provisions, Dispute Settlement, Exceptions etc. Since TPP negotiations were focused on opening markets of all goods, TPP was a pressing issue for Korea to which the agricultural industry responds very sensitively. Most of the TPP participants including the US have put efforts to consider internal sensitiveness using various ways. Thus, when we enter TPP, it is expected that Korea will secure a certain level of sensitiveness. On the other hand, it would be not easy to present its bargaining power if Korea participates alone. Moreover, Korea has already concluded Free Trade Agreements (FTA) with most of the TPP participants and the level of tariffs varies depending on the FTAs. This may cause higher level of tariff reduction. Therefore, it is needed to establish a strategy which can secure Korea’s sensitiveness enough by referring to negotiation results among the TPP members. Given that there are countries which have intention to participate in TPP negotiations such as Taiwan, the Philippines, Colombia, Thailand etc., the second round would be better for Korea to negotiate with new members. Besides, since TPP has set stronger and stricter standards on Rules than existing WTO level, it is expected for Korea to change its overall system. Thus, Korea needs to analyse impact of TPP and prepare more throughly.

환태평양경제동반자협정(TPP) 사례와 논의 동향 분석

최세균(Choi Sei-Kyun),정대희(Dae-Hee Chung),조규담(Gyu-Dam Choi),오세익 한국농촌경제연구원 2011 한국농촌경제연구원 정책연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

한·중 농산물 경쟁력 및 교역장벽 분석

문한필(Hanpil Moon),최세균(Sei-Kyun Choi),정대희(Dae Hee Chung),이동필 한국농촌경제연구원 2011 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

이 연구는 한·중 양국의 농산물 교역 현황을 살펴보고 양국간 농산물 교역에서 나타나는 경합 및 보완관계를 조사하였다. 이를 바탕으로 현재의 교역구조의 변화에 영향을 미칠 수 있는 양국 농산물의 생산비, 가격, 소비자인식, 동식물 검역장벽 등의 요인들을 종합적으로 검토하여 향후 교역구조의 변화를 전망하고 정책적 시사점을 제시하였다. 한·중간 농산물 교역은 산업간무역(inter-industry trade)이 대부분을 차지하며, 산업내무역(inter-industry trade)이 가능한 품목은 가공농산품 중 일부 품목에 불과하다. 또한 한·중 농산물의 경쟁력 격차로 인해 중국 농산물의 우리나라 시장에 대한 수출특화가 뚜렷한 일방무역(one-way trade)이 압도적인 추세이다. 결과적으로 양국간 농산물 교역구조는 보완관계의 형성이 어렵고, 앞으로도 이러한 구조가 변화될 가능성은 크지 않다. 한·중간 농산물 교역구조와 관련된 제요인의 분석을 통해 도출된 몇 가지 시사점은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 우리나라 농업과 중국 농업은 농업생산구조의 변화 방향이 대체적으로 일치하지만 자원부존 조건과 성장단계상의 차이로 인해 경쟁력 격차가 존재한다. 이로 인해 한·중 간 농산물 교역은 산업 간 무역이 압도적이고 보완구조의 형성도 어렵다. 그러나 최근, 중국의 생산요소 가격은 지속적으로 상승하고 있으며, 이에 따라 양국 농산물의 생산비 격차와 가격차이가 다소 완화되고 있는 추세이다. 이는 장기적으로 국내시장에서 중국산 수입농산물에 대한 우리 농산물의 경쟁력 제고에 긍정적인 요인으로 작용할 수 있다. 보다 근본적으로 중국의 비교우위에 의한 일방무역구조를 완화하기 위해서는 양국이 농업협력 차원에서 접근하여 양국의 농업 성장 격차를 반영할 수 있는 분업구조의 형성을 모색할 필요가 있다. 둘째, 설문조사 결과 중국산 농산물의 구매 경험이 많은 국내 식당경영주와 재중 한국인들의 중국산 농산물의 품질이나 식품안정성에 대한 인식이 과거에 비해 긍정적으로 변화한 것으로 나타났다. 이는 직접적인 소비경험이 부족함에도 중국산 농산물에 대해 부정적 인식이 강한 국내 일반 소비자들도 중국산 농산물의 소비 경험이 늘어날수록 부정적인 인식이 개선될 수 있음을 시사한다. 또한 중국산 수입농산물의 대량 소비처인 식당경영주들이 중국산 식자재에 대해 비교적 높은 구매의사를 표시한 것은 향후 중국으로부터 농산물 수입이 지속적으로 확대될 수 있는 잠재력이 크다는 것을 시사한다. 셋째, 식물 병해충이나 가축 질병 등의 이유로 수입이 금지된 품목에 대한 수입금지 조치의 해제는 일반적으로 장기간의 협상 기간이 소요된다. 그러나 최근 수출국을 중심으로 위험평가에 소요되는 기간을 정하거나 공통의 기준을 제정하고자 하는 움직임이 나타나고 있어 적극적인 대응이 필요하다. 또한 검역 협상의 순서와 기간에 정치외교적 요인이 작용할 소지가 있기 때문에 어떤 돌발 변수에 의해 특정 품목이 수입될 가능성에도 미리 대비할 필요가 있다. 넷째, 중국은 동물 전염병 및 식물 병해충 무발생지역 육성정책을 강화하는 가운데 FTA 협상이나 동식물검역 관련 양자 협상을 통해 농산물 수입제한 조치를 해지시켜 나가고 있다. 중국이 우리나라와 양자 간 협상이나 FTA 협상에서 지역화 인정에 대한 규정 도입을 요구할 가능성이 높은 만큼 이에 대한 대책과 전략을 마련할 필요가 있다. Based on the analysis of agricultural trade pattern between Korea and China in the context of competition or complementary cooperation, this study synthesizes several factors affecting their agricultural trade structure, gives a comprehensive outlook on structural changes in agricultural trade between the two countries, and finds some implications for Korean agriculture. Agricultural trade between Korea and China shows a clear one-way trade from China to Korea and consists mainly of inter-industry trade. The products available to intra-industry trade are rare with the exception of several rocessed foods. This overwhelmingly unbalanced trade structure makes it difficult for the two countries to avoid severe competition and build a mutually beneficial cooperative relationship in agricultural sector, and is not expected to change in the near future. The implications from our analyses on relevant issues in agricultural trade structure between Korea and China are summarized as follows: First, agriculture in two countries has similar production structure and development course, but also has distinctive resource endowments and growth stages, which lead to the current overwhelming one-way trade and leave not much room for complementary relation in the near future. It is necessary to find constructive cooperation plans between the trading partners towards co-prosperity under a more liberalized trade in the future, focusing on the establishment of a specialization system reflecting their comparative advantages in agricultural production. Second, the survey results reflect the change of consumer perceptions about Chinese agricultural products toward a more positive direction. Korean residents in China and restaurant managers, who have experienced Chinese agricultural products more than general consumers, responded more positively about taste, food safety, and prices of Chinese agricultural products and showed higher willingness to pay than general consumers did. It suggests that general consumers are likely to become more positive about Chinese agricultural products if they have more consumption experience of these products, implying the potentiality of increasing Chinese agricultural imports when a bilateral FTA between the two countries goes into effect. Third, the removal of inspection and quarantine barriers usually takes quite a long time, because the import prohibiton of a product on account of plant disease, pest, and animal disease is lifted through a various risk assessment process having eight steps. Recently, however, exporting countries and international organizations are seeking to reduce the period of the risk assessment and to set a common standard. Bilateral quarantine negotiations are also affected by political and diplomatic situations and may accelerate the procedure. Fourth, the Chinese government has adopted several policies for promoting disease-free agricultural production regions. Also, China is trying to introduce the concept of regionalization in its FTA negotiations, persuading their trade partners. Therefore, the Korean government should prepare for a possible request of the Chinese government on the issues in the forthcoming Korea-China FTA negotiation.

DDA 농업협상 개도국 긴급특별관세(SSM) 쟁점분석

김태훈(Tae-Hoon Kim),송주호(JooHo Song),정대희(Dae-Hee Chung) 한국농촌경제연구원 2010 한국농촌경제연구원 정책연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

이 연구는 최근 DDA 협상에서 논의되고 있는 SSM 관련 주요 쟁점사안에 대해 주요국 수입 또는 수출 통계를 활용하여 시뮬레이션 분석을 수행하였다. SSM 주요 이슈에 대한 분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 우선 한국, 미국, 일본의 SSG 발동실적을 보면 SSG 발동 시 수입량이 전후 2~3년 평균 수입량보다 확연히 감소하지 않아 정상수입을 저해했다고 주장하기 어렵다. 따라서 SSG와 유사한 SSM이 발동되었을 때 정상수입을 저해할 것이라는 막연한 주장은 근거가 없다. 더구나 SSG 발동 시 수입량과 정상교역량(발동되지 않았을 때 평균 수입량)을 비교했을 때 0~50% 감소하는 빈도수가 가장 많았으나 오히려 수입이 증가한 빈도수도 많아 호주의 분석가정인 SSM 발동 시 수입 중지는 지나치게 강한 가정으로 판단된다. Pro-rating을 적용하여 SSM 누적 발동을 검토한 결과, SSM 발동 시 수입량 가정에 상관없이 pro-rating 도입은 발동수준을 높여 SSM 발동을 제한하는 것으로 나타났다. 수입추세별로 보면 수입증가추세 품목이 상대적으로 빈번하게 SSM이 발동하고 pro-rating의 효과가 크게 나타났다. SSM 발동 시 수입이 중지된다고 가정하면 pro-rating의 영향(SSM 발동 제한)이 크게 나타나는 반면 실수입량의 75%를 가정하면 pro-rating의 영향은 미미한 것으로 나타났다. 미국, 브라질, 호주의 주요 수출품목의 월별 수출비중을 살펴 본 결과, 품목과 국가에 따라 계절성 유무가 다르게 나타났다. 따라서 명확한 기준을 가지고 계절성을 도입하기에는 많은 문제가 있을 것으로 보인다. Cross-check의 도입은 SSM 발동횟수를 매우 크게 감소시키고 발동저해 정도가 지나침에 따라 SSM 도입의 원래 취지를 훼손하여 의무도입은 불가한 것으로 판단된다. Duration/spill over 기간 변화는 평균적으로 기간이 길수록 수입량이 감소하는 것으로 분석되었다. 하지만 기간연장의 일정한 방향을 발견하기 어려웠다. 이는 Duration과 spill over 간의 영향과 x month on/off의 상호 영향 때문인 것으로 판단되며 좀 더 세밀한 분석이 필요하다. The purpose of this study is to analyze the recent discussions regarding the 4th revised modality draft for the Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM) on trade in the DDA. Empirical data was used to examine several outstanding issues in the SSM negotiations. The analysis results are as follows. First, since the SSM is not yet operational, the concerns for its frequent use can only be assessed by examining the similar instrument SSG (Special Safeguard). If the import volume during SSG-invoked months is compared with that of non-SSG months in Korea, Japan, and the U.S. under the Uruguay Round, the import volume during SSG-invoked months did not show any decisive evidence of a decline. In this context, the exporting countries" argument that the invocation of the SSM would inhibit trade growth is unfounded. It would be unreasonable to analyze the impact of the SSM on the assumption that import would be zero if the SSM is invoked. Secondly, pro-rating has been analyzed. The simulation result indicates that introduction of pro-rating in calculating the 3-year rolling average of import volume increases trigger levels by a significant amount, thus limiting the chance of invocating the SSM. If import volume is assumed to be zero under an invoked SSM, the effect of pro-rating would be significant. But if import volume is assumed to decline by 25% under the SSM, then the effect of pro-rating becomes smaller. Thirdly, the existence of seasonality for agricultural products was analyzed using monthly data of U.S., Brazil and Australia. The results show that seasonality might exist in production and export of some commodities in some countries, but it is very different country by country and product by product. From the importing countries" point of view, import volume might not change during a given year. Thus, seasonality is not a pattern that is prevalent in all products and thus should not be accepted in the modalities for the SSM. Fourth, the application of cross check would restrict the chance of the SSM being invoked and thus severely undermine the purpose of introducing the SSM in the DDA. There may be considerable time lags between import surges and its impact on domestic markets. Also establishing domestic prices for each tariff line will be very difficult, thus making the SSM unworkable for many developing countries if cross check becomes a mandatory condition. Lastly, regarding the duration and/or spill-over of remedies, it is found that the longer the period, the stronger the impact on import on average. However, it did not show a consistent sign. The reason might be explained by the trade-offs between duration/spill-over and x-month on/off.