글로벌 디지털 산업 박람회 동향과 미래 산업 시사점: CES, MWC, HM, IFA 리뷰

윤정섭(Jungsub Yoon),진설아(Sula Jin),오윤환(Yoonhwan Oh) 과학기술정책연구원 2022 STEPI Insight Vol.- No.304

지능정보기술의 파급효과를 고려한 연구개발 전략: 바이오, 자동차, 반도체 분야를 중심으로

윤정섭(Jungsub Yoon),곽기현(Gihyun Kwak) 한국혁신학회 2021 한국혁신학회지 Vol.16 No.1

본 연구는 4차 산업혁명과 포스트 코로나 시대의 핵심 기술인 지능정보기술(Data, Network, AI)의 효율적 연구개발 전략을 수립하기 위해 기술 분야 간 파급효과를 분석한다. 이를 위해, 지능정보기술이 파급되었을 때 창출된 경제적 효과가 클 것으로 기대되는 빅3 분야(바이오, 자동차, 반도체) 분야에서, 지능정보기술을 인용하여 미국특허청에 출원된 2010~2018년 사이의 특허들을 PATSTAT Online을 통해서 추출하였다. 이를 기반으로 지능정보기술과 빅3 분야와의 인용⋅피인용 관계를 도출하고, 기술파급효과 분석을 위한 산업융합유발계수를 사용하여 데이터, 네트워크, 인공지능 분야가 타 분야의 연구개발성과에 미치는 영향을 도출하였다. 분석 결과, 현재 인공지능 기술이 데이터 및 네트워크 기술들보다 파급효과가 낮지만, 인공지능 분야 내에서 파급효과가 높은 일부 세부 기술들에 대한 투자는 지속적으로 이행되어야 함을 제안한다. 인공지능 분야의 파급효과를 증대시키고, 타 분야에 대한 활용성을 높이기 위한 정책적 노력을 뒷받침하기 위하여, 향후 인공지능 분야의 파급효과에 대한 지속적인 모니터링과 연구개발 투자액을 기반으로 한 추가 연구가 필요한 것으로 보인다. This study investigates the impact between technology fields in order to establish an efficient research and development (R&D) strategy of intelligent information technology (Data, Network, AI). PATSTAT Online was used to collect information on patents filed with the U.S. Patent Office between 2010 and 2018 and prior patents cited. The patent information on biotechnology, automobile, semiconductor sector were used, where intelligent information technology is expected to be used the most. The citation relationship was derived, and the industrial convergence inducement coefficient was used to analyze the impact of intelligent information technology on the big three fields. Artificial intelligence has the lower impact than data and network, but it is suggested that investment in technologies with relatively higher impact within artificial intelligence field should be continuously implemented. To increase the adoption of artificial intelligence, it is necessary to continuously study and monitor the impact of the artificial intelligence field in the future.

모빌리티 산업의 경쟁 지형을 고려한 디지털 전환 추진 전략 연구

윤정섭(Jungsub Yoon),김석관(Seok-Kwan Kim),전지은(Jieun Jeon),박현준(Hyunjun Park) 과학기술정책연구원 2021 정책연구 Vol.- No.-

This study aims to propose policies for the emerging industry in consideration of the competitive landscape of the mobility industry, where the industrial ecosystem is rapidly changing. Firms in the mobility industry can be largely divided into traditional car-makers, digital-based firms, and mobility service firms. Promotion policies for digital transformation are derived according to the policy needs of each type of firm. The analysis of this study focused on ① the automobile industry at the technology-firm-industry level, ② the digital transformation policy for the mobility industry, and ③ the needs of the mobility industry. First, as a result of the industrial ecosystem analysis, this study addresses that the digitalization of traditional car-makers is very urgent in the process of changing the industrial structure centered on electric vehicles and future cars due to electrification and autonomous driving in the traditional automobile industry. In particular, the autonomous driving sector, which is the core of the future automobile industry, is shifting mainly to start-ups, but in the case of the domestic automobile industry, its competitiveness is declining due to its high dependence on OEM firms. Next, as a result of analyzing the evolution of technology, it is unveiled that the transition to electric vehicles was initiated in 2014, and it was confirmed that electric vehicles are at the beginning of the growth phase in the technology life cycle. Turning to the analysis of the representative firm of each type, Hyundai Motor, Tesla, and Uber, most of them are growing in a direction that invades each others territory. Hyundai Motor had pursued closed ecosystem, but after the industrial transition, it has tried to form an open ecosystem, whereas Tesla gradually shifted to a closed ecosystem. Furthermore, we found that Uber has pursued an open ecosystem as a limitation of service firms. Next, as a result of analyzing mobility industry support and digital transformation policies, major countries were focusing on the transition to zero-emission vehicles, while the United States and China are spurring autonomous driving technology innovation. In Korea, the mobility industry policy is being promoted by the Ministry of Trade, industry and Energy, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, and the Ministry of Environment. From the interview of experts in each type of firm, we derived several difficulties and needs which is necessary for the successful digital transformation in the mobility industry. First, the regulation related to new technologies has not been fully legitimated. In addition, due to the significances of digital experts, firms are hard to hire new digital experts who is required for digitalization. Even if firms tried to contribute to digitalization pursued by the government, they may fail due to the lack of the common data platform. In addition, mobility infrastructure such as charging station and cities should be designed for the introduction of next-generation mobility. Lastly, they considered that the government should manage the education curriculum for nurturing experts for data analysis and actively expand the employment support business to solve the wage problem of professional manpower. Finally, this study proposes five policies in response to the transformation of the industrial ecosystem and the policy needs required by firms. First, it is necessary to form a support organization to clarify new industrial technology regulations and review laws and systems. Second, the infrastructure to support the development of new industries should be expanded. Third, a system to support industrial technology development in the long term should be implemented. Fourth, the data platform for inter-firm cooperation needs to be standardized. Lastly, it is necessary to operate a program to support the human resources for new industry transformation and foster professional workers. The

자율주행차량을 위한 지리정보시스템 기반 신호등 검출 시스템

이태영(TaeYoung Lee),윤정섭(Jungsub Yoon),김정하(Jungha Kim) 한국자동차공학회 2015 한국자동차공학회 학술대회 및 전시회 Vol.2015 No.11

In this paper, it proposes a method for detecting traffic light at the intersection based on geographic information. Currently, traffic light installed on a road is provided by a specific rule according to the Road Traffic Act Enforcement Rules. The information (such as the height of the traffic light, the installation location of it uniformly away from a stop line) is important information for setting a region of interest(ROI) in the image. Geographical information system has been established in advance and provides the position of the traffic light. Using a position of the traffic light, the current position of the ego vehicle and a camera calibration information performed in advance, it sets a region of interest in the image. Color threshold segmentation method is set within the region of interest. Morphology filtering and blob filtering detect the light of traffic lights. The candidate region is detected light. Cascade HOG features based on Adaboost algorithm are used to determine the traffic light. Because geographic information system provides the exact position of the traffic light, detection system provides an accurate distance. The selection of the specific regions of interest within the image of the traffic light reduces the amount of computation load and detection system performs accurate detection.

국가혁신정책 분야 핵심 선도의제 탐색적 발굴 · 분석

조용래(Yongrae Cho),윤정섭(Jungsub Yoon),김은아(EunA Kim),박현준(Hyunjun Park),손은정(Eunjung Son) 과학기술정책연구원 2021 정책연구 Vol.- No.-

지능정보기술 분야에서의 글로벌 기술 지식 경쟁력 분석 : 한국을 중심으로

곽기현(Gihyun Kwak),윤정섭(Jungsub Yoon) 한국콘텐츠학회 2021 한국콘텐츠학회논문지 Vol.21 No.1

본 연구는 4차 산업혁명의 핵심 기술인 지능정보기술에 있어 한국의 글로벌 경쟁력을 측정하였다. 분석을 위해 PATSTAT Online을 사용하여 미국특허청에서 2010∼2018년 사이에 출원된 각 분야의 특허 및 이들이 인용한 선행특허를 수집하였고, 인용 · 피인용 관계를 국가 수준에서 블록화하여 글로벌 지식 흐름 네트워크를 구축하였다. 각 기술 분야별로 다음과 같은 방식으로 한국의 글로벌 경쟁력을 평가하였다. 먼저 새로운 기술적 지식을 생성하기 위해 기존의 기술적 지식을 재조합하는 과정인 기술수용을 평가하기 위해 입선-연결 중심성을, 다음으로 새로운 기술적 지식 창출의 밑거름인 원친지식 보유 정도를 나타내는 기술파급을 평가하기 위해 출선-연결 중심성을, 그리고 마지막으로 국가 간 지식 흐름의 양적 측면과 질적 측면을 모두 고려할 수 있는 PageRank 중심성을 사용하였다. 분석 결과, 자료의 수집 및 축적, 그리고 확보한 대용량 자료의 처리 분야에 해당하는 사물인터넷 · 클라우드 및 빅데이터 분야에 비해, 이를 활용하는 인공지능 분야에서 한국의 경쟁력이 상대적으로 가장 열위에 있음이 사용된 모든 지표들을 통해 확인되었다. This study aims to measure Koreas global competitiveness in intelligent information technology, which is the core technology of the 4th industrial revolution. For analysis, we collect patents of each field and prior patents cited by them, which are applied at the U.S. Patent Office (USPTO) between 2010 and 2018 from PATSTAT Online. A global knowledge transfer network was established by grouping citing- and cited-relationships at a national level. The in-degree centrality is used to evaluate technology acceptance, which indicates the process of absorbing existing technological knowledge to create new knowledge in each field. Second, to evaluate the impact of existing technological knowledge on the creation of new one, the out-degree centrality is investigated. Third, we apply the PageRank algorithm to qualitatively and quantitatively investigate the importance of the relationships between countries. As a result, it is confirmed through all the indicators that the AI sector is currently the least competitive.

공공기술창업의 경제적 파급효과 분석 연구

전지은 ( Jieun Jeon ),윤정섭 ( Jungsub Yoon ) 한국지식경영학회 2023 지식경영연구 Vol.24 No.2

본 연구는 대학 및 출연연의 기술 기반 창업(공공기술창업)의 현황을 살펴보고, 매출 및 고용 간의 인과관계를 밝히는 것을 목표로 한다. 공공기술창업 정부지원 및 민간투자, 매출, 고용의 실태가 열악하여 통계적으로 일반화하기는 어려웠지만, 이들 중에서 고성장기업(매출 및 고용이 모두 높은 기업), 잠재적 성장 기업(매출 또는 고용 중 하나가 높은 기업), 이외의 기업(모두 수준이 낮은 열악한 기업)으로 분류할 수 있었다. 공공기술창업의 정부지원 및 민간투자유치, 매출 및 고용 간의 인과관계를 파악하고, 각 요소가 효과를 발휘하기까지 소요되는 시간을 추정하기 위하여 작은 규모의 공공기술창업 기업을 대상으로 패널 벡터자기회귀모형(Panel VAR)를 적용하여 분석하였다. 그 결과 공공기술창업 기업의 성과창출 매커니즘은 정부지원/민간투자와 같은 외부 투자는 고용과 상호 인과하는 반면, 매출은 고용을 인과하지 않고, 고용이 매출을 인과하였다(정부지원 및 민간투자 ⇄고용 →매출). 즉, 고용이 공공기술창업에 있어 성과를 매개하는 중요한 역할을 하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 민간투자가 정부지원보다 고용과 매출을 단기적으로 향상시키는 효과가 있었으며, 고용이 우수한 기업이 정부지원 및 민간투자를 유치할 수 있다는 점을 보였다. 본 연구의 결과는 학술적으로는 기존 연구가 성과에 영향이 있는지를 보이는 것에 그쳤던 점을 성과창출의 과정을 실증적으로 밝혔다는 점에서 의미가 있다. 또한 정부는 인재지원과 같은 ‘고용’ 요소를 보다 중요하게 고려하여 효과적인 정책 추진이 필요하다는 시사점을 제시함으로써 정책적 기여가 있다. This study aims to examine the causal relationships between sales and employment for public technology-based startups. Although there is a limit to statistical generalization due to the poor understanding of the actual conditions of public technology start-up companies, these companies were analyzed by classifying them into high-growth companise, potential growth companies, and other companies. In order to understand the causal relationship, and to estimate the time required to be effective, panel vector autoregression was applied. As a result, the performance creation mechanism was identified as government supoort and private investment was mutually causal with employment, sales did not cause employment, and employment caused sales. In other words, it was found that employment plays an mediator role in public technology based startups’ performance mechanism. In addition, private investment had the effect of improving employment and sales in the short time than governments support, and showed that firms with high employment can attract government support and private investment. This study are academically meaningful in that they empirically revealed the process of performance creation, whereas previous studies had only shown whether there was an effect on performance. It also has a policy contribution by suggesting the need for effective policy promotion by considering the ’employment’ factor, such as human resource support, as more important.

과학기술 기반 미래연구사업 XIII

정일영(Ilyoung Jung),정미애(Miae Jung),윤정섭(Jungsub Yoon),송명진(Myung Jin Song),박병원(Byeong-Won Park),윤정현(Junghyun Yoon),김가은(Gaeun Kim),김지은(Jieun Kim),추수진(Soojin Choo),손은정(Eunjung Son),시새롬(Saerom Si),황윤하(Yunha 과학기술정책연구원 2021 정책연구 Vol.- No.-

Korean society is experiencing a severe level of polarization that has not been experienced before in the overall society and in each area of industry due to the prolonged aftermath of COVID-19. The polarization phenomenon in society as a whole is a factor that accelerates the imbalance between individuals and groups, and between metropolitan areas and regions. Therefore, This study has two research questions related to the prospect of polarization in the post-corona era that Korean society is facing from a mid- to long-term perspective. - What are the aspects of polarization that Korean society is likely to face? - What is the policy direction that should be prepared at the system level, which is closely related to the key drivers of deepening this polarization? The scope of this study was focused on digital, which has accelerated the non-face-to-face society and is a driving force for polarization in the COVID-19 situation, region in the spatial sense where polarization occurs, and company. This study was conducted in part 1 and part 2. Part 1 predicts the polarization of the post-corona era. Chapter 2 looked at the concepts of inequality and polarization for the future outlook of polarization, and dealt with methodologies and research methods for polarization projections. In Chapters 3 to 5, policy alternatives were derived by analyzing the current situation of digital, regional and corporate polarization, and predicting the future. A future theme based on big data was derived, and citizen workshops and surveys were conducted based on this. In addition, we imagined the future of polarization through sci-fi ultra-short stories and illustrations. Finally, policy alternatives for each module were proposed. Chapter 6, Comprehensive Prospects and Conclusions, draws on the previously discussed future vision as one, and examines the mid- to long-term policy direction for resolving it through the system causal map. Part 2 is about building a knowledge base for future research and disseminating results. In order to proceed with this study, a future issue search program system was used, and a knowledge base for future research was established through a network of related experts. In order to spread the results of future research to society, 『Future Horizon+』 was published, and a book is about to be published.

스마트생산 열린혁신랩 운영 및 연구사업 - 3차년도 -

오윤환(Yoonhwan Oh),이혁(Hyeok Lee),윤정섭(Jungsub Yoon),김은아(EunA Kim),서현정(Hyunjung Seo),전수경(Sugyeong Jeon),김석관(Seok-Kwan Kim),박진우(Jinwoo Park),박민지(Minji Park),송명진(Myungjin Song) 과학기술정책연구원 2022 정책연구 Vol.- No.-

과학기술 기반 미래연구사업 Ⅻ

최종화(Jonghwa Choi),임영훈(Younghun Lim),정일영(Ilyoung Jung),윤정섭(Jungsub Yoon),윤정현(Junghyun Yoon),진설아(Seola Jin),김가은(Gaeun Kim),김단비(Danbi Kim),이예원(Yewon Lee),추수진(Soojin Choo),박정호(Jeongho Park),김지은(Jieun Kim) 과학기술정책연구원 2020 정책연구 Vol.- No.-

This study examines future scenarios from various angles particularly focusing on staggering incidents profoundly impacting on our today’s society. It is axiomatic that this study has a significant implication in consideration of recent unexpected and unpredictable changes in our lives, triggered by the global COVID-19 pandemic since its first outbreak in December 2019. The proliferation of COVID-19 worldwide has shown radical changes such as boarder closures. Thus, it is inevitable for the whole countries to find out alternatives to various public services and a way of life we took for granted before the pandemic. Despite these warning signs from all levels of society, we have been losing many values. For instance, our transition to global economy enabled easier interactions between people from different societies in a cost-efficient way, and it led to the better standard of life with the increase of efficiency. However, such easiness of mobility has now become a threat with a high level of contagiousness in the global pandemic. For this reason, people cannot help pioneering diversion routes to continue their routine and existing work practice. Finally, contactless economy has been the new norm across the entire organizations. Such change has accelerated ‘digital transformation’, and it is highly likely to be continued to more deliberate and disruptive innovations. Given that movement, our future society can be predicted as the era of ‘New Normal’ beyond traditional forms of transaction. At this point in time this study envisages our future images by developing future scenarios caused by the COVID-19. In order to predict the changes in the future, we focus on the pandemic-driven megatrends, and discuss whether or not the expected future can be realized. As identified in 「STEPI Outlook」 published in 2020, our future research method follows that the image of the future can be realized through the notion of ‘Created future’ - not by ‘Accepted future’.