비선형회귀모형에서의 불안정성

박병무,김영일,장대흥,Bark, Pyeng-Mu,Kim, Youngil,Jang, Dae-Heung 한국통계학회 2017 응용통계연구 Vol.30 No.1

가끔 비선형회귀분석에서 수치해를 사용시 불안정성을 보게 된다. 비선형회귀분석에서 모든 반복처리 방법들은 초기추정값을 요구한다. 그러나, 오차제곱합에 복수 개의 국소최소값이 존재하면 잘못된 초기추정값은 원하지 않는 정상점에 수렴하게 된다. 이런 경우 초기추정값은 카오스 현상을 일으킨다. We can sometimes find instability against numerical solutions in nonlinear regression. All iterative procedures in nonlinear regression require initial parameter values to be selected. Poor starting values may result in convergence to an unwanted stationary point of the error sum of squares surface. Starting values can sometimes cause the chaos effect in the nonlinear regression model. We can find the chaos phenomena with the convergence plot of starting values in the parameter space.

기술연관분석에 의한 건설기술과제의 우선순위결정

홍순기(Soon-ki Hong),박병무(Pyeng-mu Bark) 대한산업공학회 1998 대한산업공학회지 Vol.24 No.1

기술경영전공 재직자 대상 맞춤형 교육에 대한 연구

임홍탁(Lim, Hong-Tak),옥소연(Ock, So-Yeon),황준범(Hwang, Joon-Beom),박병무(Bark, Pyeng-Mu),옥영석(Ock, Yeong-Suk) 한국기술혁신학회 2018 한국기술혁신학회 학술대회 발표논문집 Vol.2018 No.5

본 연구는 기술경영전공 재직자(재학생 및 졸업생)들의 대학원 과정에 대한 만족도와 요구사항을 알아보기 위해, 부경대학교 기술경영전공자들을 대상으로 한 수요조사 결과를 분석하였다. 입학목적, 교육과정에 대한 만족도, 교육과정에 대한 요구사항에 대해 조사해보였으며, 연령별, 직위별, 직무별, 기업의 업종별, 기업의 형태별로 응답결과를 분석하였다. 전반적으로 세부전공 설치에 대한 요구가 높았다. 30-40대, 관리자들은 MOT 과정을 개인의 역량/포트폴리오 강화를 바라는 반면 40대 이상, 경영자들은 전문역량강화, 새로운 비즈니스창출, 네트워크 강화 등을 중요하게 여기고 있었다. 제조업 종사자들은 실무에의 기여를 중요한 요소로 꼽은 반면, 서비스업 종사자들은 신규 비즈니스의 창출을 중요한 요소로 밝혔다. 맞춤형 기술경영교육과정의 내용을 구체화하는 일에 유용한 자료로서 활용할 수 있으며, 보다 이론적인 작업을 위해 응답 재직자들의 원래 전공까지 고려하는 설문을 향후 연구과제로서 제안한다. The purpose of this research is to find out degree of satisfaction and requirements of graduate student of MOT(Management of Technology) by analyzing demand survey results of graduate school of management and technology, Pukyong National University. We investigate the purpose of admission, the satisfaction with the curriculum, and the requirement for curriculums. The results were analyzed by age, job title, job type, business type, and type of company. Overall, there was a high demand for the detailed majors. 30s and 40s, and managers wanted to strengthen their individual capacity and portfolio by MOT education course, while more than 40s and CEO considere strengthening their professional competencies, creating new business, and strengthening their relationship network. Workers in the manufacturing sector think the factor that can contribute to the practical business as a important factor, while workers in the service industry thing the creation of new businesses as an important factor. This study can be used as a useful resource for materializing the content of the customized MOT curriculum. For more theoretical work, we propose to consider the original major of the student in the questionnaire for the future work.

韓 · 日 水産分野 技術變化 形態 比較硏究

박주찬(Park, Ju-Chan),김완민(Kim, Wan-Min),박병무(Bark, Pyeng-Mu) 동북아시아문화학회 2017 동북아 문화연구 Vol.1 No.51

This paper is to analyze the technological change patterns in Fishery areas of Korea and Japan, and to find out whether change patterns of these two countries are similar or identical due to the geographical closeness as well as historical, industrial and technological ties. To analyze the patterns this study uses the Weibull growth curve model on selected six fishery technology areas and further applies the reduced and full models in order to test an identical change pattern of two countries. This study draws a conclusion that the Weibull model perfectly fits to six areas based on the statistical significance test and suggests future studies should consider using the Weibull model as well as Gompertz model for a technology assessment task. The study also concludes that there would be significant possibilities of being identical or similar between two countries in most fishery technological change patterns with only time lag difference. Based on the result of the study, the statistical test suggests that there could be I denticalness in five areas such as resource cultivation, fishery structural facets, seedling production, diagnosis, and precaution and treatment technologies. These findings may be due to the same characteristics of each technology. The study also finds out that fishery food processing and distribution technology area is significantly different between Korea and Japan due to their own systematic and cultural difference of this area industry and market in each country. The study suggests that further study should put more efforts on finding unique and independent characteristics and differences in each technology area and applying a proper growth fitting model such as Weibull, Gompertz and others respectively.

성장곡선 모형 적용을 통한 기술수준평가 사례 연구: 특정 수산과학기술 분야를 중심으로

김완민 ( Wan Min Kim ),박주찬 ( Ju Chan Park ),박병무 ( Pyeng Mu Bark ) 한국수산경영학회 2015 수산경영론집 Vol.46 No.3

The purpose of this paper is to discuss possibilities of applying growth curve models, such as Logistic, Log-Logistic, Log-Normal, Gompertz and Weibull, to three specific technology areas of Fishery Science and Technology in the process of measuring their technology level between Korea and countries with the state-of-the art level. Technology areas of hazard control of organism, environment restoration, and fish cluster detect were selected for this study. Expert panel survey was conducted to construct relevant panel data for years of 2013, 2016, and a future time of approaching the theoretical maximum technology level. The size of data was 70, 70 and 40 respectively. First finding is that estimation of shape and location parameters of each model was statistically significant, and lack-of-fit test using estimated parameters was statistically rejected for each model, meaning all models were good enough to apply for measuring technology levels. Second, three models other than Pearl and Gompertz seemed very appropriate to apply despite the fact that previous case studies have used only Gompertz and Pearl. This study suggests that Weibull model would be a very valid candidate for the purpose. Third, fish cluster detect technology level is relatively higher for both Korea and a country with the stateof- the-art among three areas as of 2013. However, all three areas seem to be approaching their limits(highest technology level point) until 2020 for countries with the state-of-the-art. This implies that Korea might have to speed up her research activities in order to catch up them prior to 2020. Final suggestion is that future study may better apply various and more appropriate models respectively considering each technology characteristics and other factors.

성장곡선 모형을 활용한 일본 등 최고기술보유국과 한국 기술수준평가에 관한 비교연구

김완민(Kim, Wan-Min),박주찬(Park, Ju-Chan),박병무(Bark, Pyeng-Mu) 동북아시아문화학회 2017 동북아 문화연구 Vol.1 No.50

This paper introduces a new approach method on science and technology level assessment by using growth curve model concept. It may make readers possible to understand in dynamic analysis approach since growth model is rooted on the historical and empirical development of measuring biological growth pattern of plants, animals and viruses, etc. The paper used Gompertz and Weibull models and compared both models or which model might be better fitting. The Gompertz growth curve model has been the only and popular one used to analyze general technology level assessment in Korea for the last ten years since Bark(2007). There has been some arguments about possibility of other substitute model for the matter including Weibull model. Kim and Bark(2015) introduced the Weibull growth curve model to measure the technology level assessment of some fishery areas. This study tries widening its usage for more general scope of technology areas by introducing the result of fishery and construction engineering areas, which are relatively compared in terms of technology characteristics of its own. The study draws possible conclusion to see whether both Gompertz and Weibull models better represent growth pattern of biological oriented ones or which one better fits. Adding to that, the paper tries to see whether science and technology growth patterns of these two concerned areas are similar or identical with time lag between Korea and countries with the state-of-the art including Japan.

대학의 연구활동 장애요인에 대한 조사 및 개선방안을 위한 연구

박병무 수원대학교 1992 地域社會開發 Vol.4 No.-

The purpose of the study is to find out efficient policy alternatives for stimulating research activities and technological innovations in the universities. The study reveals several reasons why research activities in the universities have been so inefficient. A part of the conclusion is drawn from analysis results of surveys and interviews with experienced scientists at the universities. The study introduces an overview and problems about research activities in the universities. Then it analyzes negative factors of research activities. Based on these results, the study discusses about how stimulate research activities in the universities and proposes policy alternatives.

技術變化의 雇傭效果에 대한 理論的 考察과 事例分析 : 우리나라 기업의 표본자료분석을 중심으로

朴秉武 水原大學校 社會科學硏究所 1990 社會科學論集 Vol.2 No.-

경제정책 측면에서의 산업기술정책의 역할

朴秉武 수원대학교 산업기술연구소 1991 산업기술연구소논문집 Vol.6 No.-

The purpose of the paper is to describe and discuss about an industrial technology policy as a part of as economic policy with an assumption that technological change is understood as one of the economic phenomena in an aggeregate as weel as micro-economic view point. The role of an industrial technology policy with a primary goal of creating the national wealth should be seen within an economic point of view. When the market competition is not strong, the role of signaling by the market mechanism could be ineffective. Market failure may be attributed to some aspects of characteristics of a basic knowledge of risk and uncertainty, market competition and structure, information, externailities, and technological innovations and dynamic aspect of economic changes. In this case, a government intervention as a form of the (industrial) technology policy may be justified. And policy decision makers should perform pre-analysis about the criteria and the scope of the government intervention with a discussion about possible policy implications.

A DEVELOPMENT OF INTERREGIONAL TRADE MODEL : Conceptual Approach to U.S. Dairy Industry

Bark, Pyeng-Mu 수원대학교 1989 地域社會開發 Vol.1 No.-

지역간의 무역균형이론은 국제무역균형이론에서 파생된 것으로서 지역간의 시장균형가격은 운송비 및 제반교역비용의 차이에 의해 결정된다. 이러한 지역간의 무역균형, 즉 지역간의 시장가격의 균형을 도출하기 위해서는 해당 각 지역의 해당 제품에 대한 시장정보인 수요와 공급 그리고 운송비용 및 기타 교역조건 등이 주어져야 한다. 특히 수요와 공급의 함수와 시장제약조건 함수와 非線型인 형태로 주어질 경우 일반적 접근방법인 선형계획법의 응용이 크게 제약을 받게됨에 따라 구간별 선형접근방법인 separable programming技法의 활용이 요구된다. 미국의 牛乳産業은 농업부문에 있어서 제품의 특성상 정부로부터 가장 많은 규제와 지원을 받는 대표적인 산업이다. 제품의 다양성과 정부정책의 복잡성은 이 산업구조를 복잡화시켜 왔으나 궁극적으로는 자유경쟁적 시장원리로부터 점차 궤리시킴으로써 과잉생산체제를 유도하였다는 평가를 받고 있다. 따라서 이러한 과잉생산으로부터 탈피하여 경쟁력있는 산업으로 육성하기 위한 정책변환이 필요하며 이를 위해서는 지역간의 무역균형이론에 입각한 자유경쟁시장원리에 의한 시장균형상태와 정부간섭에 의한 규제된 시장균형상태를 비교, 분석해야할 것이다. 본 연구는 separable programming기법을 이용한 지역간 무역균형이론을 미국의 우유산업에 적용하기 위한 개념적 틀을 구체적으로 개발, 소개하는데에 일차적인 목표가 있으며 이차적으로는 여타 산업시장의 균형을 찾는데에 이 모형이 활용될 수 있는 가능성을 제공하는 데에 있다.