政策形成過程에 관한 硏究

강희승 國防大學院 1989 국내석사

과메기에서 황색포도상구균의 성장예측모델 개발

강희승 中央大學校 大學院 2012 국내석사

This research is aimed to understand microbiological characteristics of S. aureus and conduct a quantitative risk assessment of it, to prevent food poisoning caused by the growth and multiplication of S. aureus in Gwamegi. Predictive growth models were quantitatively developed and explained by using mathematical models, and then each model was statistically compared. In order to understand growth characteristics of S. aureus depending upon its changes in temperature, the growth of the bacteria was observed at the interval of 2-6 hours after the temperature of 10 to 35°C was set as an independent variable for each model. Gompertz, Baranyi and Logistic models were selected and fitted as primary models by using observed values. Using the values obtained from primary modeling, secondary models were developed. From secondary models, a polynomial model and a square root model were selected and they were compared and analyzed by using the values of specific growth rate (μmax) and lag time (λ) obtained from primary models. And in order to examine the suitability of the models, r2, mean square error (MSE), bias factor (Bf) and accuracy factor (Af) were utilized as statistical indicators. By means of an equation predicted for μmax, observed μmax obtained from a primary model (Baranyi model) was applied with a square root model to develop predicted μmax. As a result, it was confirmed that a polynomial equation was √μmax= 0.028*(T–10.361) and r2 was 0.989, which stands for statistically very high suitability. MSE was 0.00001, which was close to 0, and Bf and Af were 0.9982 and 1.0018, both of which drew near to 1. It shows that observed μmax can be utilized as a practical predicted model. As for λ, a predicted model for λ was set up by using Logistic model which is a primary model and a polynomial quadratic model which is a secondary model. As a result, the gained polynomial equation was λ= 20.465–1.023T+0.015T2, r2 was 0.998, MSE was 0.029106, and Bf and Af were 1.0051 and 1.0005. It was showed that the model can be utilized as a practical predictable model. In this study, the values of μmaxand λ could be predicted through regression analysis depending upon the temperature; therefore, it is expected that the values could used as basic information to implement a quantitative microbial risk assessment (MRA) S. aureus in Gwamegi and processed marine foods. 본 연구는 과메기에서 황색포도상구균(S. aureus)의 생육과 증식으로 인한 식중독 발생을 예방하기 위하여 미생물학적 특성을 파악하고 S. aureus의 정량적 위해 평가를 수행하였다. 수학적 모델을 이용하여 균의 생육을 정량적으로 해석예측하였으며, 각 모델을 통계적으로 비교하였다. 온도변화에 따른 S. aureus의 생육 특성을 파악하기 위하여 각각 10-35°C의 온도를 독립변수로 설정하여 시간 별 균의 성장을 관찰하였다. 관측된 값을 이용하여 Gompertz, Baranyi and Logistic model을 primary model로 선정하여 적용하였다. 1차 모델링을 통해 얻은 값을 이용하여 2차 모델을 개발하였으며, 2차 모델의 경우 polynomial quadratic model과 square root model을 선정하여 1차 모델로부터 얻은 specific growth rate(SGR, μmax, 최대증식속도) 및 lag time(LT, λ, 지연시간) 값을 이용하여 비교분석하였다. 또한 모델의 적합성을 검토하기 위하여 r2, Mean square error (MSE), Bias factor (Bf) 및 Accuracy factor (Af)를 통계적 지표로 활용하였다. SGR에 대하여 개발된 수식은 1차모델(Baranyi model)로부터 얻은 observed SGR을 Sqaure root model에 적용시킴으로써 predicted SGR을 얻을 수 있었다. 그 결과, 모델식은 √μmax= 0.028*(T-10.361)이었으며 r2은 0.989로 매우 높은 통계적 적합성을 나타내었다. MSE는 0.00001로 0에 근접하였으며, Bf 및 Af는 각각 0.9982, 1.0018로 1에 근접한 것으로 나타나 예측모델로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. LT의 경우 1차 모델인 Logistic model와 2차 모델인 이차다항식을 이용하여 LT에 대한 예측모델을 나타내었다. 그 결과, 이차 다항식인 λ= 20.465–1.023T+0.015T2을 얻었으며, r2은 0.998, MSE는 0.29106, Bf 및 Af는 각각 1.0051 및 1.0005로 나타나 예측 가능한 모델로의 활용 가능성을 보여주었다. 본 연구는 1차 모델과 2차 모델을 이용하여 온도에 따른 SGR 및 LT값을 예측하였으며, 가장 적합한 모델을 검증하였다. 본 연구 결과는 과메기 및 수산가공식품에 오염된 S. aureus의 정량적 위해 평가를 위한 기초자료로 활용될 것으로 기대된다.

미국의 대중국 국교정상화 과정을 통해 본 젠슨(L. Jensen) 외교정책결정 모델의 비판적 검토

강희승 이화여자대학교 대학원 2005 국내석사

본 연구는 젠슨의 외교정책결정 모델을 미국의 대중국 국교정상화 과정에 적용하여 그 모델의 현실설명력과 한계를 검증하기 위한 것이다. 젠슨(L. Jensen)은 외교정책 결정요인 모델을 보다 명확하고, 체계적인 분석 수준에서 시도하였는데, 그는 외교정책결정요인을 크게 인적요인, 국내적 요인, 국제적 요인으로 나누어 설명하고 있다. 이 세가지 변수를 적용하여 미·중 국교정상화 과정에서 나타난 미국의 대중국 외교정책결정요인을 분석하는 것이 본 연구의 중심내용이다. 미·중 국교정상화는 미·소 양극의 냉전시기를 지나 다극화의 탈냉전시기로 전환되는 연결고리 역할을 하였다. 1949년 중국 공산정권 수립 이후 1950~1960년대 미·중관계는 동서 냉전구도의 양극에 편입되어 적대적 긴장관계를 유지하고 있던 반면, 1970~1980년대 들어서는 이념적, 문화적, 경제적 차이에도 불구하고, 상호 협력적인 관계 구축을 위한 움직임이 일어나기 시작하였다. 1969년 닉슨대통령은 그의 취임사에서 대결의 시대가 가고, 협력의 시대가 오고 있다고 말함으로써 미국의 새로운 외교정책의 방향을 제시했으며, 닉슨독트린을 발표하여 중국과의 화해정책을 구체화하였다. 1972년 닉슨이 중국을 방문하여 상하이 공동성명을 발표하면서 아시아에서의 소련의 팽창주의를 반대하고, 양국간의 군사적 적대가능성을 감소시키고, 미·중간의 경제 및 문화관계를 확대하는 것이 양국의 공통이해라는 것을 밝혔다. 이로써 양국의 관계는 화해 분위기로 개선되었고, 양국 교역량도 급증하게 되었다. 그러나 닉슨의 중국방문 이후 관계가 정상화될 때까지는 7년이라는 세월이 흘렀다. 이는 각국의 국내정치 문제와 대만문제 때문이었으나, 이후 양국의 새로운 지도자 등장 및 대만문제에서의 미국의 양보가 이루어짐에 따라 1979년 결국 미·중국교정상화가 성립되게 되었다. 이를 통해 양국은 상호 협력적 관계를 더욱 심화시킬 수 있었다. 젠슨의 모델은 크게 인적요인, 국내적 요인, 국제적 요인으로 구분된다. 젠슨의 외교정책결정요인을 미·중 국교정상화 과정에 적용했을 때, 다음과 같은 결과를 얻을 수 있다. 첫째, 젠슨은 인적요인으로서 동기적 욕구, 성격, 인식 세가지를 제시하고 있다. 이 중 미·중 국교정상화에 영향을 미쳤던 주요 요인은 정책결정자의 인식 및 세계관으로 판단된다. 닉슨은 중국에 대해 우호적인 인식을 가지고 있었으며, 중국과의 화해 필요성에 대한 인식도 취임 초부터 가지고 있었으므로 실제 외교정책에 영향을 준 것으로 보인다. 그리고 당시 닉슨의 안보보좌관이었던 키신저도 평화를 추구하기 위한 힘의 균형을 지지하였고, 다극화체제를 구축해야 한다는 세계관을 가지고 있었기 때문에 다극화체제를 위한 첫 외교적 시도로 미·중관계 개선을 지지하고 있었다. 마지막으로 카터는 다변적 세력균형이라는 세계관을 바탕으로 중국과의 화해에 역점으로 두어야 한다는 것을 인식하고 있었고, 그로 인해 미·중 국교정상화를 성사시켰다. 이러한 정책결정자의 인식 및 세계관은 외교정책에 영향을 주는 요인이었다. 둘째, 젠슨은 국내적 요인으로서 사회적요인, 이념적 신념 및 역사적 전통, 국내행위자요인, 경제적 요인, 국가능력을 제시하고 있다. 그 중 미·중 국교정상화 과정에서 설명력을 가지는 요인은 주로 경제적 요인과 국가능력이다. 경제적 요인은 미국이 당시 인플레와 국제수지의 적자 상황에 처해 있었으므로 미·중 국교정상화를 통해 중국시장에 진출하여 경제적 이익을 획득하고, 방위비를 절감하려 했다는 것이다. 또한 국가능력은 주로 군사력을 말하는데, 소련의 군사력이 증가하면서 미국의 군사력을 추월하게 되자 미국은 소련을 더욱 경계하게 되었고, 대소 봉쇄정책을 강화할 필요성을 느꼈기 때문에 중국과의 화해를 통해 소련을 견제하려 하였다. 셋째, 젠슨은 국제체제요인으로서 제3국의 중재, 국제기구, 힘의 분배를 제시하고 있다. 이 중 미·중국교정상화 과정에 영향을 미친 요인은 단연 힘의 분배요인이었다. 국제체제가 구조적으로 변화하면서 양극체제에서 다극체제로 전환되고 있었으며, 그 과정에서 소련에 대항하기 위해서 중국이라는 중간세력을 새로운 질서 내에 편입할 필요성이 생겨났기 때문이다. 이처럼 젠슨의 모델은 미·중국교정상화에 영향을 준 외교정책결정요인을 분석하는데 적절한 설명력을 가지고 있음이 입증된 반면, 여러 변수가 중복되어 작용하고 있고, 그 우선순위를 밝히기 어려우며, 정보의 제약이 있다는 점에서 한계를 가지고 있다. A Critical Review on the Decision-Making Model on Foreign Policy of Lloyd Jensen Looking through the Process of United States’ Diplomatic Normalization with China by Kang Hee-Seung The purpose of this study is to prove the explanatory power of reality and the limit of the model by applying the model of Lloyd Jensen’s decision-making on foreign policy to the process of United Stated diplomatic normalization with China. Lloyd Jensen explained the model of decision-making variables of foreign policy clearly and systematically in the standard of analysis and he divided the decision-making variables into human variables, internal variables and international variables. The main contents of the study are to analyze the decision-making variables of foreign policy of United States with China, which appeared in the process of the Sino-American diplomatic normalization by applying those three variables. The diplomatic normalization between the United States and China was a role as a connection between the cold war of the United States and Russia and the multipolarized post cold war era. The rivalry of Sino-American relationships ended when the president Nixon visited China in 1972 and they stepped into a new cooperation era for the normalization of the relationship. The Shanghai communique, signed by President Nixon and Premier Chou on February 1972, set up an entirely new framework for the Sino-American relations. It had been seven years until the relationship became normalized after the visit of the president Nixon in China. It was caused by the problems with the internal politic of each country and the problem of Taiwan. The diplomatic normalization between the United States and China was established in 1979 since new political leaders came out in both country and the compromise of the United States was made on the problem of Taiwan; therefore, both country improved the cooperative relationship. The foreign policy of the United States was affected by various decision-making variables of foreign policy during the process of the diplomatic normalization between the United States and China. Firstly, the factors that affected the diplomatic normalization between the United States and China in human variables were the recognition and worldview of decision maker. The recognition and worldview of decision makers such as the president Nixon, Henry A. Kissinger and the president Carter acknowledged the necessity of peacemaking with China. Secondly, the factors that greatly affected it were the economic profits and the military power in internal variables. The United States was in the economic difficulty caused by the Vietnam War and they needed to open up the new market in China. Also, they searched for peacemaking with China as keeping in check for the power since Russia exceeded the military power in the United States. Thirdly, the factors that affected it were the distribution of the power within the internal system in internal variables. As the internal system changed systematically, they invited China to the multipolarized system for the defense against Russia. Although the model of Lloyd Jensen was proved to be an appropriate explanatory power for the analysis on the decision-making variables of foreign policy, which affected the diplomatic normalization between the United States and China, there are various variables repeated and applied. Also, it is hard to clarify the priority and there is a limit on the information.

근로자의 종사상 지위가 프로티언 경력태도에 미치는 영향

강희승 경기대학교 행정·사회복지대학원 2018 국내석사

본 연구에서 살펴보고자 하는 프로티언 경력태도는 프로티언 경력에 대한 개인의 신념, 인식, 정서의 방향과 크기를 의미하며(Hall,2002;김은석,2010), 과거의 평생직장 개념에서 평생 직업으로 패러다임이 변화 되면서 나타난 것이다. 4차 산업혁명 시대의 일자리는 개인의 자기표현 욕망이 주도하며, 초생산성과 업무시간의 단축이 일어나면서 일자리가 다변화되는 양상을 보일 것이다. 이런 사회에서 일을 지속하고, 경력개발을 하려면 어떠한 태도가 필요한가에 대한 의문에서부터 본 연구는 시작되었다. 앞으로의 사회에서 경력개발은 임금과 고용이 보장되지 않을 확률이 점차 높아지고, 변화무쌍한 직업 환경의 변화가 예측되는 시점에서 Hall(1976)이 명명한 성장과 자유를 기반으로 하며, 개인에 의해 주도되는 경력을 말하는 프로티언 경력(protean career) 태도를 살펴보는 것은 중요한 의미가 있다. 또한 Hall(1976)의 연구에서 프로티언 경력태도의 하위요인인 가치지향성과 자기주도성은 현대적 경력(new career)에서 개인에게 요구되는 중요한 태도라고 주장하였다. 이를 바탕으로 프로티언 경력 태도에 대해 연구하였다. 신수림(2014)의 설문을 바탕으로 현재 자영업 근로자나 임금근로자, 프리랜서 형태로 종사하는 근로자의 프로티언 경력 태도에 대해 살펴본 결과는 다음과 같다. 근로자의 종사상 지위가 프로티언 경력태도에 부분적으로 유의한 영향을 미친다는 것이 밝혀졌다. 다만 본 연구자가 밝히고 싶었던 프리랜서가 더욱 뚜렷하게 프로티언 경력태도를 가질 것이라는 점에서 유의미한 영향은 밝혀지지 않았다. 근로자의 종사상 지위 중 자영업자가 프로티언 경력태도 중 자기주도성에서만 유의한 영향을 미치는 것을 알 수 있었다. 임금근로자에 비해 자영업자인 경우 자기주도성이 높음을 알 수 있다. 의외로 프리랜서는 임금근로자에 비해 자기주도성에 유의미한 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한, 임금근로자 보다는 프리랜서와 자영업자가 프로티언 경력태도의 가치지향성이 높다는 것이 밝혀졌으며, 자영업자의 종사상 지위가 자기주도성, 가치지향성 모두 유의미하게 가장 높은 것으로 밝혀졌다. 더불어 직무특성 중 업종분류에 따라 교직/전문직 분야에서 가장 높은 프로티언 경력태도 성향을 보였으며, 가구소득이 높고, 학력이 높을수록, 미혼보다는 기혼에서 자기주도성이 높다는 결과가 나타났다. 특이한 점은 가치지향성에서는 여성이 남성보다 높았고, 학력의 중위수준인 전문대졸에서 가장 높게 나타났다. 변화무쌍한 사회에서 프로티언 경력태도를 이해하는 것과 이러한 역량을 보유해야할 필요성이 대두되는 시점에서 아직은 프리랜서에 대한 정의와 이해, 이러한 형태로 일하는 근로자 스스로도 새로운 경력시대에 필요한 역량인 프로티언 경력태도(가치지향성, 자기주도성)에 대한 인식이 부족하다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 이러한 프로티언 경력 태도는 기질로 타고나는 것보다는 교육이나 어떠한 인생사건에 의해서 강화된다고 하였다(Hall, 2003). 사회적으로 자신이 경력을 관리해야 하고, 더욱 빠르게 변화하는 프로티언 경력시대가 도달하면서 이와 관련된 커리큘럼과 교육, 프리랜서 형태로 일하는 근로자들의 적극적인 인식의 변화와 이들을 돕는 제도 등이 절실히 필요할 것으로 보인다. This study analyzed the effects on the Protean Career attitude, which is the direction and magnitude of an individual's beliefs, consciousness, and Protean Career for Career. The concept of lifelong career disappears, and the paradigm of lifelong work has changed. The work of the era of the fourth industrial revolution is led by the desire of personal expression of self, super productivity and shortening of working time will occur and work will be diversified. What kind of attitude is needed to continue to develop and develop your career in such a society? This research started with this think. Career development in society of the future is based on the growth and freedom named by Hall(1976). at the time when change of work environment enriched with change is gradually increased, wage and employment are not guaranteed gradually, It is important to look at the Protean Career attitude that refers to a carrier driven by an individual. In addition, Hall(1976). argued that value-driven and self-directed, which is a sub factor of the professional Changeable career attitude, are important attitudes required of individuals by modern career (new career). Based on this, I studied about the Protean Career attitude. Based on the questionnaire of Sinsurim (2014), the current business owner and wage worker examined the Protean Career attitude of people working as free-lance form workers as a result as follows. However, I was could not clarify the meaningful results of the freelance career attitudes we intend to disclose in this study. However, It is important to look at the attitudes of Protean Career. It has been found that self-employed seed position has a significant impact on self-directed. Compared with wage workers, I could confirm that I have high self-directed in self-employed workers. Surprisingly, freelance was analyzed as having no significant influence on self-directed compared to wage workers. Therefore, the value-driven of the Protean Career attitude of freelancers and self-employed workers is higher than that of wage workers. Self-employed workers were found to have the highest value-driven and self-directed in their attitudes towards Protean Career. Also, based on the industry classification of occupational characteristics, we found that the highest Protean Career attitudes in education professionals / professions, higher income, higher in education and higher levels of self-directed. In terms of specific value-driven, women were higher than men and short - term college graduates were the highest. The definition of a freelancer has not been fully understood, even as the attitude of getting a job in various societies and the need to maintain it have been revealed. Workers working this way also lack awareness of their Protean Career. It is necessary to educate the attitudes of the professions (value-driven, self-directed) necessary for the new working path. These professional attitudes are not created by themselves, but are reinforced by lifelong learning and specific events (Hall, 2003). Socially, we need to manage our profession and career path more professionally. As a rapidly changing era of work, there is a pressing need for relevant curriculum and training, changes in perceptions of freelance workers, and systems to help people.

높이가 변하는 복부판의 극한전단강도에 관한 연구

강희승 東國大學校 大學院 2003 국내석사

Steel plate girders with variable depth are often used especially in negative bending moment zones not only for achieving economical designs but also for the aesthetic. In the design of steel plate girders with variable depth, it is very important to accurately assess the shear strength. However, AASHTO LRFD bridge design specifications (2002) do not give any explicit provisions for the determination of the shear strength of tapered web panels. In this study, the buckling and ultimate strength behaviors of the web panels with variable depth were investigated through the linear buckling and nonlinear finite element analyses. The result indicate that the tapered ratio does not have any significant influence on the elastic buckling strength. On the other hand, the ultimate shear strength decrease almost proportionally as the tapered ratio increases. From a parametric study of the results of the nonlinear finite element analyses, a reduction factor that is to be applied to the shear strength equation (Lee and Yoo, 1998) is formulated for a better prediction of the shear strength of plate girders with variable depth.

北極海 環境變化로 인한 韓國의 海洋安保政策 硏究

강희승 韓國海洋大學校 大學院 2015 국내박사

The Arctic marine environment is changing from moment to moment. The factors which affect the Arctic environment are changes in weather, oceanic conditions and the Arctic's own geographical features. Furthermore, widened human access to navigation within the Arctic Ocean has drastically increased the number of ships and aircraft in the area, and this is expected to lead to a new era of exploration; it is said that the discovery of new shipping routes in the Arctic is of the same worth as the discoveries of Columbus. On the other hand, some say that the changes caused by human activities will not only provide benefits, but also the possibility of unexpected disasters and calamities. There is no doubt that international cooperation is integral to the performance of policies relating to the Arctic area, which have been successfully developed for the last 10 years. Therefore, this study will look into the following factors: ● Pending issues for drastic changes in the Arctic and solutions to these ● Settlement of territorial disputes between Arctic coastal states ● Advantages and disadvantages of the discovery of new maritime routes ● Role of the Arctic Council and its future tasks The Republic of Korea acquired a formal position as an observer at the 8th ministerial meeting of the Arctic Council held in Kiruna, Sweden in 2013. The Republic of Korea is considered to be poor in resources but it is, however, one of the most favoured nations in "trade". The potential of the Arctic, which may be examined following the discovery of new shipping routes has intrigued The Republic of Korea to turn its gaze on the trade situation within the Arctic area. Accordingly, the government of Republic of Korea has attracted cooperation within its own ministries in order to push forward its Arctic policies and to incarnate challenging issues while doing so. Spelled out in the following paragraphs are the details of Arctic potential due to the discovery of the new maritime routes. Firstly, costs for international shipping are expected to downtrend sharply as the new shipping routes decrease shipping distances covered e.g. freight charge for international shipping are expected to be decreased by 25 per cent. Furthermore, the Arctic, owing to its inclement weather and environmental conditions, has until now never been an easy place to explore. The situation is different at the present time, allowing the tremendous supply of natural resources which rests under the ice of the Arctic to become more accessible; a quarter of the undiscovered petroleum and other natural resources such as nickel, copper, iron ore are to be found within the rock strata of the Arctic. Such potentials of the region will fulfil a role as a new growth engine for The Republic of Korea. In addition to the bullet points above, this report will also investigate Korea's maritime security policy and strategies for the changes in the Arctic, and consider the resolution of these by diagnosing the situations of other coastal states. Other suggestions of this report regard diverse aspects of Arctic changes illustrated above, including effective ways of providing airspace management, ratification of new Arctic treaties, the operation of naval power of countries in the Arctic Council. These will be followed by the identification of the probable role of the Korean Navy in the Arctic and national policies dealing with Arctic issues. Having said this, solutions to the four main topics of this report are outlined by four different terms: ● International cooperation on Arctic management ● Governmental proposals of Arctic strategic development (in the case of The Republic of Korea) ● Identifying and promoting the role of an observer state in the Arctic Council ● Advance Arctic strategies in collaboration with other coastal states : the USA, Canada, Russia, etc. To begin with the first term, there are a number of issues that need to be treated internationally. For example, territorial disputes including the continental shelf and the demarcation of territorial waters should be handled peacefully under terms of UNCLOS, which will deter any drastic action from countries involved in such disputes. Terminating conflicts between such countries is eventually aimed at enhancing maritime security in the Arctic. Other elements of oceanic security issues comprise ensuring the safety of navigation in the Arctic area and exploitation of mineral resources, which are the results derived from the new shipping routes. Concerning this discovery of new shipping lanes, it is strongly suggested that international military cooperative systems be launched with the support of the UN. In addition, free navigation has to be assured to every rightful country as it is strictly stated in the UNCLOS. Some countries, unsurprisingly, try to obtain exclusive possession of shipping routes and this cannot be overlooked. Every country related to the Arctic, regardless of distance, should legislate domestic laws on Arctic activities taking the peace of humanity into account. In addition, maritime observation systems capable of transmitting real-time maritime conditions, should be developed for those navigating in the region. The government of Republic of Korea recommended to take the following action regarding Arctic issues. Firstly, government-led Scientific research and international cooperation activities should be enhanced. The government has recently re-established the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries and shown their intention to focus on the Arctic. The hot potato, however, is that their current level of scientific research and frequency of participation in international Arctic activities still remains low. There exist countless threats throughout the Arctic region and it is imperative that Korean naval power be strengthened in case of salvage and other rescue operations. Methods may include building icebreakers and the foundation of a military base in the Arctic. Establishing a consultative body for maritime policies would also help Korea play a role as an observer. Apart from the governmental dimension, supporting nongovernmental organisations should also be considered as this would assist in constructing a national information exchange infrastructure. Furthermore, Korean officials promulgated a plan for processing integrated Arctic policies in 2013. For example, Korea is ambitious for transforming Busan into a 'hub' for shipping in North-east Asia. Details of this project include collaborating with Russia. In terms of the Arctic Council, coastal states expect observer states to participate positively in their activities with financial resources and the sharing of scientific knowledge. The Republic of Korea should set a business model for the Arctic so as to precede competing countries. The Korean peninsula is directly affected by the Siberian air mass and, therefore, the precise prediction of climate changes in the Arctic is necessary. Lastly, the development of human resources is one of the most urgent tasks as Korea's contribution to Arctic activities will mainly relate to exporting its competitive manpower resources. As discussed above, The Republic of Korea managed to obtain observer status in the Arctic Council in 2013 and experts argue that succeeding in the following policies would help Korea make its position secure. In the first place, observer countries including Korea should scrutinize progress when working groups of the Arctic Council aim to achieve common interests of humanity. If so, observer countries should actively participate in the activities of the groups so that Arctic can be protected both environmentally and economically. To give an example of such activities, observer countries can become involved when members of the Arctic Council make deliberations on new treaties or agreements affecting the Arctic. Secondly, Korea should seek SLOC security as well as raise the quality of the Korean Navy's sea rescue capability, which may be achieved if there is collaboration with other states. The next policy is the improvement of governance between states and understanding of the characteristics of the Arctic region. As the Ocean does not belong specifically to certain people or organizations, thus, it is necessary for us all to work together to protect it. Denuclearization in the area could be the first thing to process. The last policy is to make the full use of the extension of mutual exchange between EU countries and North Asian countries. Although North Korea's policy of seclusion prevents Northern Asia from achieving faster growth, this connection between two different continents is expected to raise Korea's economic potential. Discussed from this point onward is the last topic: collaboration with other countries related to the Arctic either directly or indirectly. To start with countries whose concern towards the Arctic is more intense than other countries, due to their geographical attributes, Russia is regarded to be the top-rated country for investment from the position of Korea since the two countries are adjacent to each other, and President Putin of Russia is now pushing forward a business in energy development throughout Eastern Siberia and the Far East. For instance, Russia currently concentrates on development of oceanic resources; crude oil, natural gas, mineral resources, fishery resources and so on, and they have also entered into a business in construction and management of new shipping routes. Probable areas where Russia and Korea can process a joint investment may include a newly-launched system of transporting crude oil from West Siberia using the ESPO oil pipeline, which a long-term project of cooperative resource exploitation in Eastern Siberia and the Far East. The same can apply to a port construction business, a mapping project for sea beds in the Barents Sea, Loften and Vesteralen areas, the establishment of Kirkenes airport and port, cooperation in research into an integrated surveillance system for Arctic navigation, expansion of infrastructure and conclusion of MOU with eminent universities. Canada is known to be a country whose political interest in the Arctic is very high and is a place with rich mineral resources. They have recently started the Mackinzie Gas Project whose objective is to construct a 1,200km length natural gas pipeline. If successfully processed, 1.2 billion cubic feet of gas will be distributed through the pipeline and the official start of sales is expected to be in 2018 when every legal and financial problem has been solved. Cooperation between Korea and Canada is necessary for the following policies. Firstly, it is expected that Korea will be able to help Russia build VTS and communications management information systems in the Arctic, which are to be prepared for the new shipping routes. Additionally, the necessity for collaboration in port and resource development industries, development of high-tech vessels fit for polar expeditions, environmental protection and supporting indigenous people cannot be overlooked. Alaska is renowned for rich resources buried in it; 10% of world coal reserves and a vast range of mineral and fishery resources from the Siberian Ocean take up to half of the total American fishery resources. Korea should refer to American's advanced knowledge of the Arctic and the reliability of their naval power, for example, in participation in the Arctic training program conducted from 2011 which would enhance the capability of the Korean Navy. Norway, located adjacent to the Arctic, implemented the High North policy since 2006 and contributed to Arctic management to a large extent. Korea would benefit from consultation with the Norwegian Barents 202 Education Program, which comprises Arctic knowledge of vast scope. In addition to Norway, Greenland, due to its geographical nature, is believed to hold 48 billion barrels of petroleum and natural gas with a number of other natural resources. Greenland is said to have competitive knowledge in digital mapping and geographic intelligence. Possible collaborative strategy between Korea and Greenland would establish an Arctic information intelligence centre, which would enhance Korea's understanding of Arctic and Greenland's business capability. In contrast to the countries discussed so far, illustrated below are non-Arctic countries (in terms of geography). To begin with China, seems to have a similar position to that of Korea, but is ready for the upcoming new shipping routes and their results, such as resource exploitation. Both countries may work together regarding these opportunities, while they will also be in competition. Japan, Korea's neighbouring country, is alleged to be the most prepared country for an imminent golden age of the Arctic. Their North Ocean program; ANSROP-2 and geographical information system; JANSROP-GIS are the most competitive ones compared to other countries' and the Ministries of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan established JAMSTEC; Japan Agency Marine-Earth Science and Technology to supervise and analyse the Arctic Ocean in real time. Korean research organizations should strengthen relationships with such Japanese scientific organizations in order not to be left behind. Non-Arctic EU countries include the United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, Netherlands, France, Poland, Italy, Belgium and others. Their common interest in these matters are concerned with the Arctic environment and energy preservation policies. Being a member country of 유엔해양법협약, they count themselves responsible for conformation to oceanic laws, international airspace and environmental changes. Therefore, it is not too much to say that there is room for Korea and those countries to cooperate in a number of areas such as guarantee of the right to fish in international oceans, the conservation of biological resources, the safety of navigation in international shipping routes, and the legislation of international law for Arctic activities, and other matters arising from the new discoveries.

안성천 유역 침수 해석 기법 연구

강희승 忠南大學校 2008 국내석사

This study minimizes life damage, social and economic damage of the area conferring flood inundation frequently, also provides basic data to defend from the disaster in advance. It makes available preparation before a thing takes place about the disaster which will be possible in the future executing a flooding analysis about the area progressing development and each scenario's zone using the 2 dimensional model FLUMEN to be made a fitting development project. FLUMEN model developed by Beffa(1999), using Shallow Water Equation basically, can apply to grid and irregulated triangular and is a common model which can apply to hydraulic analysis complicated like a joining or a bending area. In this study, two dimensional model has been applied for the topographic features around Anseong and Jinwi stream, the meandering and the curvature of a river bed, and so on, considering the uncertainty of the coefficient that can apply to the unidimensional model and the processing of the moving boundary, the flow direction and the travel time in case that the flood is propagated to the flooded Area. Also, the topographic data was made using Lidar aerial photograph and digital map of the Anseong and jinwi stream. In the treatment of the unsteady flow, flood Hydrograph calculated through the hydrological analysis with boundary conditions in the entrance of the upstream. The result of the flood inundation simulation showed that the inundation depth which was caused by the overflow was relatively higher than the inundation depth which was caused by bank break. The study also showed that the major district which was affected by the inundation and the alternative break point could be known through analysing each break point inundation map.

퍼지 이론을 이용한 진동법식 전자혈압계의 정확도 향상에 관한 연구

강희승 연세대학교 1991 국내석사

水文學的 應答函數의 地形學的 歪曲度에 대한 接近

강희승 忠南大學校 大學院 2016 국내박사

This dissertation presents the systematic approach to positively skewed shape of instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH), which is one of the common features of hydrologic response function. To this end an analytical expression of statistical moments is derived within the framework of geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) theory quantified according to the concept of hydrodynamic, geomorphologic and kinematic heterogeneity. There is a significant scale difference between hillslope and channel flow path system. Although the former has the smaller level of scale its variation coefficient tends to become higher. The coefficient of skewness also has the different trend against the latter. The shape of IUH is affected by kinematic heterogeneity rather than hydrodynamic heterogeneity. Its combined effect with geomorphologic heterogeneity is the major cause of skewing hydrologic response function. Statistical features of hillslope and channel flow path can be transferred hydrologic response function in the form of dimensionless statistics and their relative importance forms the general shape of hydrologic response function. * A dissertation submitted to the committee of Graduate School, Chungnam National University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Conferred in August 2016.

브랜드 검색 키워드 네트워크 구조분석을 통한 구매 행동 모델링 연구

강희승 성균관대학교 2016 국내석사

This study investigates log data documenting consumers’ actual information search activities, approaches such activities from the perspective of structural analysis of networks, and examines whether they lead to consumers’ actual purchases of designate brands. It is reported that consumers use the internet as the most informative channel at the stage of pre-purchase speculation and product comparison. Brands, considered as the objects of off-line reality in the past, step in the on-line dimension as targets of information digging. Consumers’ on-line information acquisition starts from simple searching, and the keywords that consumers type in might well show some characteristics of their on-line info searching activities. As they search products (or services), they use associative ‘mind map’ with certain patterns, adding keywords and extending the ‘map’ itself. After all, searching activities give structure on information composition on designate brands. In this paper, I call this structure ‘brand search network’. Prior studies on brand association network tend to ‘network’ consumers’ thoughts and represent them in scales of brand preference. However, brand search network in our study is a ‘network’ of consumers’ realized behaviors, not simply their thoughts. I examine how this ‘network’ affects consumers’ purchases of designate brands. On the basis of on-line web log data reflecting consumers’ behavior, I extracted search keywords. In on-line environments, consumers type in various search keywords and thereby go through successive steps of info searching; the connective lining up of these keywords form a ‘network structure’. In this way, this study is based on theories of network structure analysis. From the perspective of brand search network, consumers who purchased the designate brands turned out to have searched more numerous, broader keywords related to the brands. Moreover, they also extended the branches of other keywords starting from the brand names, and they were more likely to purchase the brands, as these keywords had higher affinity with the brands. Furthermore: the lower the density and the higher the cohesion of consumers’ brand search network, the better they knew about the brands and were in direction to obtain the information they wanted. Consumers, in this case, actually purchased the brands. It is corroborated from the perspective of network theory that brand search network variables reflecting consumers’ behavior help to predict their actual purchases. To put it in another way, this study contributes to the widely known consumer-related variables that affect brand purchases; based on network theory, this study grasps consumer behavior from the viewpoint of ‘network’ and predicts actual purchases by means of econometrically constructed variables. In short, this study introduces network theory and thereby analyzes consumers’ search keywords; it also analyzes the behavior of consumers searching brand-related information and thereby suggests a criterion to classify purchase and non-purchase groups; moreover, it proposes an econometric model to predict consumers’ purchase activities on the basis of brand search network. 본 연구는 소비자의 실제 정보 탐색 행동이 기록된 로그 데이터를 이용하여, 소비자의 브랜드 정보 탐색 행동을 네트워크 구조 분석의 관점에서 접근하고, 이들이 실제 브랜드 구매로 이어지는지를 실증하고자 하는 연구이다. 현재의 소비자들은 구매 고려 및 비교 단계에서의 가장 많은 정보 획득 경로로 인터넷 서핑 및 검색을 사용 하는 것으로 보고 되었다. 브랜드 또한 기존 오프라인에서 논의되던 것이 온라인으로 전이되어 그 것이 정보탐색의 대상으로 대두되었다. 즉, 소비자들의 온라인 정보탐색은 검색부터 시작하며, 소비자가 입력하는 검색 키워드들을 통해 소비자 온라인 정보탐색의 특징을 알 수 있다. 소비자들은 상품(또는 서비스)를 검색할 때 마인드 맵과 비슷한 패턴으로 연상작용을 통해 검색키워드를 더해가며 확장 구조로 탐색한다. 결국, 검색이라는 행동을 통해 브랜드에 대한 정보탐색이 구조화 된다고 볼 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 이를 ‘브랜드 검색 네트워크’ 라고 명칭하고 연구를 진행하였다. 기존의 브랜드 연상 네트워크는 소비자의 생각을 네트워크화 하여 연구하였고, 이 것이 브랜드 선호도와 같은 것들로 나타났다면, 브랜드 검색 네트워크는 이러한 소비자들의 생각이 행동으로 발현 된 네트워크라고 볼 수 있다. 그리하여 이러한 네트워크가 해당 브랜드 구매에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 연구하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 본 연구에서는 소비자 행동이 반영된 온라인 웹 로그 데이터를 기초 자료로 하여 검색 키워드를 추출하여 연구를 진행하였다. 온라인 환경에서 소비자들은 다양한 검색 키워드들을 입력하여 정보탐색의 연속적인 과정을 수행하게 되는데 이러한 키워드들 간의 일렬적인 연결은 네트워크 구조를 구성하게 된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 네트워크 구조 분석에 쓰이는 이론을 바탕으로 하여 분석을 진행하였다. 해당 브랜드를 구매한 소비자들은 브랜드 검색 네트워크 관점에서 브랜드와 관련된 검색 키워드들을 더 많이, 더 깊이 검색 하였다. 또한 브랜드 명 자체에서 다른 검색 키워드로 검색 행동을 뻗어나가거나 들어오는 경우가 더 많았으며 이러한 검색 키워드들이 브랜드와 관련된 키워드 일수록 구매할 확률이 더 높았다. 그리고 소비자의 브랜드 관련 검색 네트워크의 밀도가 낮고 응집도가 높을 수록 해당 브랜드에 대한 정보에 대해 많이 알고 있어 원하는 방향으로 정보를 취득하는 상태로 볼 수 있으며, 이러한 경우가 해당 브랜드를 구매한 소비자들이 해당되었다. 더불어, 네트워크 이론의 관점에서 소비자들의 행동이 반영 된 브랜드 검색 네트워크 변수가 구매행동을 예측하는데 도움을 준다는 것이 증명되었다. 다시 말해, 브랜드 구매와 관련해서 널리 인식되고 사용되어 오던 소비자 특성 변수 뿐 만 아니라, 그 것을 보완하는 관점에서 네트워크 이론을 도입하여 소비자의 행동을 네트워크 관점에서 도출해내어 계량적 수치로 접근한 변수들로 구매여부를 분류 예측할 수 있는 방법론을 제안 하였다. 본 연구의 네트워크 이론을 도입하여 소비자 검색 키워드를 분석하는 접근을 시도하였고, 브랜드 관련 검색을 하는 소비자들의 행동을 분석하여 구매집단과 비구매 집단을 구분하는 척도를 제시 하였으며, 브랜드 검색 네트워크를 활용해, 소비자들의 구매 행동을 예측할 수 있는 모델을 제시 하였다는데 그 시사점이 있다.