Вступление Китая в новую фазу развития на фоне "торговой войны" с США: взгляд из России

Lukonin, Sergey,Ignatev, Sergei Korea Consensus Institute(KCI) 2018 Analyses & alternatives Vol.2 No.2

By the middle of 2018 there are signs of China's entry into a new period of development, characterized by a change in the old model: "market reforms-inner-party democratization - moderate foreign policy" to another: "market reforms - Xi Jinping personality cult - offensive foreign policy." This model contains the risks of arising of the contradiction between economic freedom and political-ideological rigidity which can lead to destabilization of the political life. However, in the current positive economic dynamics, these risks may come out, rather, in the medium and long term. Today, the political situation in China remains stable - despite growing dissatisfaction in scientific expert and educational circles due to increased control over the intellectual sphere by the authorities. The need for a new redistribution of power between central and provincial authorities could potentially disrupt political stability in the medium term, but, at the moment, is not a critical negative factor. The economic situation is positive-stable. Forecasts indicate a possible increase in China's GDP in 2018 at 6.5%. At the same time, there are negative expectations in connection with the Sino-US and potentially Sino-European "trade war". In the Chinese foreign policy, as a response to Western pressure, China increasingly uses the Russian direction of its diplomacy in the expanded version of Russia + SCO. The nuance here is seen in China's adjusted approach to the SCO: first of all, not as a mechanism for cooperation with Russia, but as an organization that allows using Russia's potential for pressure on the US in the Sino-US strategic rivalry. In the second half of 2018, the Chinese economy will continue to develop steadily, albeit with unresolved traditional problems (debts of provinces and state-owned enterprises, ineffective state sector, risks on the financial and real estate market). In politics, discontent with the cult of Xi will accumulate, but without real threats to its power. Weakening in economic opposition between China and the United States is possible due to Beijing's search for compromises on tariffs, intellectual property, trade deficit. To find such trade-offs, Xi will use the so-called. "Personal diplomacy" of direct contacts with Trump.

Organoids in image-based phenotypic chemical screens

Lukonin Ilya,Zinner Marietta,Liberali Prisca 생화학분자생물학회 2021 Experimental and molecular medicine Vol.53 No.-

Image-based phenotypic screening relies on the extraction of multivariate information from cells cultured under a large variety of conditions. Technical advances in high-throughput microscopy enable screening in increasingly complex and biologically relevant model systems. To this end, organoids hold great potential for high-content screening because they recapitulate many aspects of parent tissues and can be derived from patient material. However, screening is substantially more difficult in organoids than in classical cell lines from both technical and analytical standpoints. In this review, we present an overview of studies employing organoids for screening applications. We discuss the promises and challenges of small-molecule treatments in organoids and give practical advice on designing, running, and analyzing high-content organoid-based phenotypic screens.

Russian Policy towards the Korean Unification

Sergey Lukonin 통일연구원 2015 International journal of korean unification studie Vol.24 No.3

The article highlights the security problem of the Korean Peninsula and the related Russia’'s policy, as well as identifying the major differences between the Korean policy of the USSR and Russia. The analysis is focused on the main factors that can affect Russia‘s position with regard to the Korean unification at the moment — such as the “Ukrainian crisis,” “sanction regime,” “Russia’s turn to the East” and realization of the Silk Road Economic Belt planned by China. Another part of the analysis is focused on such subjects as: possibilities to realize multilateral projects by Russia, South Korea, North Korea, and China; prospects for unification of Korea as well as the opportunities that Russia could gain therefrom. Besides, the article offers recommendations for the more active cooperation between Russia and South Korea. In general, activation of Russia’'s policy vis-à-vis North Korea is mostly of demonstrative nature. It shows intents, first, to demonstrate to the EU and U.S. that the policy designed to isolate Russia is insolvent, and second, to find a counterweight to balance the growing dependence on China. The announced economic projects most probably would not be realized or, if otherwise, will be done on the minimal, “advertising” scale. The full-scope of cooperation with South Korea would not be possible unless Korea is unified — for example, in the form of North Korea‘s absorption by the South Korea.

Вступление Китая в новую фазу развития на фоне ʻʻторговой войныˮ с США: взгляд из России

Sergey Lukonin,Sergei Ignatev 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2018 분석과 대안 Vol.2 No.2

By the middle of 2018 there are signs of China’s entry into a new period of development, characterized by a change in the old model: “market reforms-inner-party democratization - moderate foreign policy” to another: “market reforms - Xi Jinping personality cult - offensive foreign policy.” This model contains the risks of arising of the contradiction between economic freedom and political-ideological rigidity which can lead to destabilization of the political life. However, in the current positive economic dynamics, these risks may come out, rather, in the medium and long term. Today, the political situation in China remains stable - despite growing dissatisfaction in scientific expert and educational circles due to increased control over the intellectual sphere by the authorities. The need for a new redistribution of power between central and provincial authorities could potentially disrupt political stability in the medium term, but, at the moment, is not a critical negative factor. The economic situation is positive-stable. Forecasts indicate a possible increase in China’s GDP in 2018 at 6.5%. At the same time, there are negative expectations in connection with the Sino-US and potentially Sino-European “trade war”. In the Chinese foreign policy, as a response to Western pressure, China increasingly uses the Russian direction of its diplomacy in the expanded version of Russia + SCO. The nuance here is seen in China’s adjusted approach to the SCO: first of all, not as a mechanism for cooperation with Russia, but as an organization that allows using Russia’s potential for pressure on the US in the Sino-US strategic rivalry. In the second half of 2018, the Chinese economy will continue to develop steadily, albeit with unresolved traditional problems (debts of provinces and state-owned enterprises, ineffective state sector, risks on the financial and real estate market). In politics, discontent with the cult of Xi will accumulate, but without real threats to its power. Weakening in economic opposition between China and the United States is possible due to Beijing’s search for compromises on tariffs, intellectual property, trade deficit. To find such trade-offs, Xi will use the so-called. “Personal diplomacy” of direct contacts with Trump.

Новая нормальность в АТР: Пекин между Москвой и Вашингтоном

Sergey A. Lukonin,제성훈 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2023 분석과 대안 Vol.7 No.1

For the main countries of the Asia-Pacific region, the United States, China and Russia, a situation of “new normality” is emerging. Moreover, for each of the countries, this “new normality” has its own meaning. For the United States, this is an aggravation of the military confrontation with China in the Taiwan Strait. For China, this is an increase in the degree of rivalry with the United States and a slowdown in the pace of economic development with a very high probability of their decline in the future. For Russia, this is an almost complete curtailment of relations with the United States against the background of a special military operation and imposed sanctions. These nuances, in addition to the results of the 20th CPC Congress, will determine the main trends in Sino-American and Sino-Russian relations. It seems that China's attitude towards Russia will not change against the background of the Ukrainian crisis. Beijing will maintain a position of “benevolent neutrality” towards Moscow. At the same time, the balance between “goodwill” and “neutrality” may vary depending on the scope of Sino-Russian cooperation. For example, in the economic sphere, Chinese companies will be afraid to cooperate with Russian partners for fear of secondary sanctions. However, in general, Russia will retain its importance for China as the strongest anti-American pole. In relations with the United States, China will continue to firmly defend its interests, while at the same time not excluding the normalization of relations with Washington in certain areas of cooperation: strategic stability, non-traditional threats, ecology, etc. In general, the decisions of the 20th CPC Congress do not allow us to say either in favor or against the idea of China's readiness to resume dialogue with the United States in the post-congress period. Sino-American relations, as noted above, have their own logic and will probably continue to develop within its framework. However, so are Sino-Russian relations. Within the framework of these logics, Beijing seems to continue to balance between the two vectors of its foreign policy. On the one hand, this is the development of bilateral cooperation with Russia in order to strengthen its own negotiating positions in the confrontation with the United States: military cooperation with an emphasis on joint exercises, political cooperation based on anti-Americanism, economic cooperation with an eye to the risks of secondary sanctions. On the other hand, it is unacceptable for China to recognize the collapse of Ukraine, the inadmissibility of a direct military clash with the United States and the extreme undesirability of further aggravation of relations with the United States on the factor of Chinese friendship with Russia.

Китай и глобальное лидерство

Mikheev, Vasily,Lukonin, Sergey,Ignatev, Sergei Korea Consensus Institute(KCI) 2017 Analyses & alternatives Vol.1 No.2

The article is devoted to the theoretical and practical analysis of Chinese global leadership. The concept of leadership is applied as a methodology, which involves identifying the main factors, such as strategic power, the attractiveness of political institutions, the ability to provide acceptable ideas and the presence of allies that contribute to a comprehensive analysis of the country's leadership potential. The authors also describe the relevance of Chinese global leadership and analyze its domestic, economic and international causes. Moreover, the ''Belt and Road'' initiative is defined as the main mechanism for providing the influence of China on the global level which is now being changed its quantitative component, namely the increasing attention to the security aspects of this initiative. In addition to that, it is important to note that China maintains its economic and political positions in Africa, Central Asia and South-East Asia. Africa has a special role in the Chinese ''Belt and Road'' initiative as a recipient of Chinese investments and a site for the deployment of China's naval facilities to protect the trade routes. On the regional level, China will strive to become a leader of the trade and economic processes in the Asia-Pacific region, the South China Sea and the North Korea nuclear program issues. The American factor in modern international relations, namely so-called "Trump factor", which means the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris Agreement, will cause demand for Chinese leadership in the Asia-Pacific region and in the world as well. However, in this case a number of questions arise: is China prepared for this? Is Beijing able to bear greater responsibility? Does China have the potential for this? The article concludes that China will not become global leaders in the next 20-30 years, because of internal (political reforms) and foreign policy reasons (doctrinal formulation of foreign policy initiatives, military-political and economic power, international posture and relations with other states). The authors believe that the implementation of Chinese leadership is possible not on the condition of confrontation between China and the United States, but on the establishing of constructive relations between these countries. The last meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping showed a trend for creating channels for dialogue between Beijing and Washington, which can become the basis for interaction. An important place in the work is given to the analysis of development and forecasting the evolution of Russian-Chinese and U.S.-China relations. As for Russia, Moscow should conduct a policy that will not allow it to become a ''junior partner'' of China.

Китай и глобальное лидерство

Vasily Mikheev,Sergey Lukonin,Sergei Ignatev 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2017 분석과 대안 Vol.1 No.2

The article is devoted to the theoretical and practical analysis of Chinese global leadership. The concept of leadership is applied as a methodology, which involves identifying the main factors, such as strategic power, the attractiveness of political institutions, the ability to provide acceptable ideas and the presence of allies that contribute to a comprehensive analysis of the country's leadership potential. The authors also describe the relevance of Chinese global leadership and analyze its domestic, economic and international causes. Moreover, the ''Belt and Road'' initiative is defined as the main mechanism for providing the influence of China on the global level which is now being changed its quantitative component, namely the increasing attention to the security aspects of this initiative. In addition to that, it is important to note that China maintains its economic and political positions in Africa, Central Asia and South-East Asia. Africa has a special role in the Chinese ''Belt and Road'' initiative as a recipient of Chinese investments and a site for the deployment of China's naval facilities to protect the trade routes. On the regional level, China will strive to become a leader of the trade and economic processes in the Asia-Pacific region, the South China Sea and the North Korea nuclear program issues. The American factor in modern international relations, namely so-called "Trump factor", which means the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris Agreement, will cause demand for Chinese leadership in the Asia-Pacific region and in the world as well. However, in this case a number of questions arise: is China prepared for this? Is Beijing able to bear greater responsibility? Does China have the potential for this? The article concludes that China will not become global leaders in the next 20-30 years, because of internal (political reforms) and foreign policy reasons (doctrinal formulation of foreign policy initiatives, military-political and economic power, international posture and relations with other states). The authors believe that the implementation of Chinese leadership is possible not on the condition of confrontation between China and the United States, but on the establishing of constructive relations between these countries. The last meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping showed a trend for creating channels for dialogue between Beijing and Washington, which can become the basis for interaction. An important place in the work is given to the analysis of development and forecasting the evolution of Russian-Chinese and U.S.-China relations. As for Russia, Moscow should conduct a policy that will not allow it to become a ''junior partner'' of China. .

Boao Forum for Asia 2015 and China’s Global Strategy

( Vasily V Mikheev ),( Sergey A Lukonin ),( Sung Hoon Jeh ) 한국유라시아학회 2016 Acta Eurasiatica Vol.7 No.2

중국 대외정책의 진화에 초점을 맞춘 이 논문에 따르면, 2015 보아오 포럼에서 다가오는 수십년 간 글로벌 경제의 발전에 적극적인 영향을 미치기 위한 주요 교리에 따라 중국의 주요 벡터들이 공고화되었다. 더 나아가, 이 논문은 사회적, 이데올로기적, 경제적 측면에서 시진핑의 ‘개인적 이니셔티브’의 발전을 분석하고, 우크라이나 위기에 관한 중국의 입장에서 새로운 변호» 강조하며, 중국의 ‘리더십을 향한 야망’에 대한 주의를 기울이면서 러시아중국-서방 관계의 가능한 구성을 검토하고 있다. As noted in this article, focused on evolution of China’s foreign policy, its major vectors were consolidated at the Boao Forum in line with the major tenet - “to render active influence on development of the global economy in the decades to come”. Further on, the article offers the analysis of development of Xi Jinping’s “personal initiatives” in social, ideological and economic spheres, highlights the “new” tints in Chinese position with regard to the Ukrainian crisis, draws attention to China’s “ambitions for leadership” and outlines the possible configuration of Russia-China-West relationship.

Recent Development in the Russian Far East-Baikal Region and Its Implication

JEH Sung Hoon,MIN Jiyoung,KANG Boogyun,Sergey Lukonin 대외경제정책연구원 2015 World Economy Brief Vol.2015 No.01