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Новая нормальность в АТР: Пекин между Москвой и Вашингтоном
Sergey A. Lukonin,제성훈 사단법인 코리아컨센서스연구원 2023 분석과 대안 Vol.7 No.1
For the main countries of the Asia-Pacific region, the United States, China and Russia, a situation of “new normality” is emerging. Moreover, for each of the countries, this “new normality” has its own meaning. For the United States, this is an aggravation of the military confrontation with China in the Taiwan Strait. For China, this is an increase in the degree of rivalry with the United States and a slowdown in the pace of economic development with a very high probability of their decline in the future. For Russia, this is an almost complete curtailment of relations with the United States against the background of a special military operation and imposed sanctions. These nuances, in addition to the results of the 20th CPC Congress, will determine the main trends in Sino-American and Sino-Russian relations. It seems that China's attitude towards Russia will not change against the background of the Ukrainian crisis. Beijing will maintain a position of “benevolent neutrality” towards Moscow. At the same time, the balance between “goodwill” and “neutrality” may vary depending on the scope of Sino-Russian cooperation. For example, in the economic sphere, Chinese companies will be afraid to cooperate with Russian partners for fear of secondary sanctions. However, in general, Russia will retain its importance for China as the strongest anti-American pole. In relations with the United States, China will continue to firmly defend its interests, while at the same time not excluding the normalization of relations with Washington in certain areas of cooperation: strategic stability, non-traditional threats, ecology, etc. In general, the decisions of the 20th CPC Congress do not allow us to say either in favor or against the idea of China's readiness to resume dialogue with the United States in the post-congress period. Sino-American relations, as noted above, have their own logic and will probably continue to develop within its framework. However, so are Sino-Russian relations. Within the framework of these logics, Beijing seems to continue to balance between the two vectors of its foreign policy. On the one hand, this is the development of bilateral cooperation with Russia in order to strengthen its own negotiating positions in the confrontation with the United States: military cooperation with an emphasis on joint exercises, political cooperation based on anti-Americanism, economic cooperation with an eye to the risks of secondary sanctions. On the other hand, it is unacceptable for China to recognize the collapse of Ukraine, the inadmissibility of a direct military clash with the United States and the extreme undesirability of further aggravation of relations with the United States on the factor of Chinese friendship with Russia.
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Boao Forum for Asia 2015 and China’s Global Strategy
( Vasily V Mikheev ),( Sergey A Lukonin ),( Sung Hoon Jeh ) 한국유라시아학회 2016 Acta Eurasiatica Vol.7 No.2
중국 대외정책의 진화에 초점을 맞춘 이 논문에 따르면, 2015 보아오 포럼에서 다가오는 수십년 간 글로벌 경제의 발전에 적극적인 영향을 미치기 위한 주요 교리에 따라 중국의 주요 벡터들이 공고화되었다. 더 나아가, 이 논문은 사회적, 이데올로기적, 경제적 측면에서 시진핑의 ‘개인적 이니셔티브’의 발전을 분석하고, 우크라이나 위기에 관한 중국의 입장에서 새로운 변호» 강조하며, 중국의 ‘리더십을 향한 야망’에 대한 주의를 기울이면서 러시아중국-서방 관계의 가능한 구성을 검토하고 있다. As noted in this article, focused on evolution of China’s foreign policy, its major vectors were consolidated at the Boao Forum in line with the major tenet - “to render active influence on development of the global economy in the decades to come”. Further on, the article offers the analysis of development of Xi Jinping’s “personal initiatives” in social, ideological and economic spheres, highlights the “new” tints in Chinese position with regard to the Ukrainian crisis, draws attention to China’s “ambitions for leadership” and outlines the possible configuration of Russia-China-West relationship.
ScienceON
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