비선형회귀모형에서의 불안정성

박병무,김영일,장대흥,Bark, Pyeng-Mu,Kim, Youngil,Jang, Dae-Heung 한국통계학회 2017 응용통계연구 Vol.30 No.1

가끔 비선형회귀분석에서 수치해를 사용시 불안정성을 보게 된다. 비선형회귀분석에서 모든 반복처리 방법들은 초기추정값을 요구한다. 그러나, 오차제곱합에 복수 개의 국소최소값이 존재하면 잘못된 초기추정값은 원하지 않는 정상점에 수렴하게 된다. 이런 경우 초기추정값은 카오스 현상을 일으킨다. We can sometimes find instability against numerical solutions in nonlinear regression. All iterative procedures in nonlinear regression require initial parameter values to be selected. Poor starting values may result in convergence to an unwanted stationary point of the error sum of squares surface. Starting values can sometimes cause the chaos effect in the nonlinear regression model. We can find the chaos phenomena with the convergence plot of starting values in the parameter space.

연구개발 활동의 상대적 비교우위지수 개발을 통한 우리나라 대학의 과학기술 분야 특성화 분석

박병무(Pyengmu Bark) 한국기술혁신학회 2007 기술혁신학회지 Vol.10 No.4

이 논문은 우리나라 주요 대학의 과학기술 분야의 연구개발 활동에 대한 상대적인 비교우위와 종합적인 특성화 정도를 살펴 볼 수 있는 지수들을 통해 정부의 연구개발비 수혜 규모, 수도권과 지방 소재여부, 국공립과 사립으로 구분한 경우 특성화의 정도에 대한 차이가 있을 것인가에 대한 가설을 검증하고 검증 결과에 대한 정책적 의미를 살펴본다. 정부의 재정지원 규모가 클수록 종합적인 특성화의 정도는 약화되는 것으로 분석되었다. 그러나 소재 지역의 구분은 특성화의 차별화에 영향을 주지 않는 것으로 밝혀졌다. 한편, 국공립 형태의 대학군이 종합적인 특성화가 상대적으로 심화되어 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 이 논문의 검증 결과가 주는 정책적 시사점은 추후 정부의 특성화 정책 관련 세부추진 방향과 전략에 도움이 될 것으로 판단이 된다. 이를 위해서는 이 연구에서 제안하는 상대비교우위 및 종합적 특성화와 함께 개별 연구주체인 각 대학들의 전반적인 그리고 개별적인 연구개발 활동의 우수성에 대한 분석이 병행되어야 할 것으로 생각한다. 아울러 그동안 정부의 대학 특성화 정책추진 성과에 대한 종합적인 분석이 이루어져 정책에 대한 실효성이 검증이 되어야 한다. This paper introduces a relative comparative advantage index and a composite concentration index of university research activity in science and technology. Three hypotheses were tested regarding differences of degree of concentration based on the size of government R&D fund, location of university, and source of foundation, respectively. T-test results imply that there are significant differences of concentration based on the size of R&D fund and source of foundation, while location of university does not show a significant difference. The paper generally suggests that the lesser size of government R&D fund would lead higher level of concentration, and public funded universities tend to maintain far higher concentration ratio. The paper contributes by introducing relevant indexes for analyzing university research competence, concentration and competitiveness, and hence by proposing policy direction and implication for university competitiveness policy.

동태적 기술수준 측정 방법에 대한 이론적 접근

박병무(Pyengmu Bark) 한국기술혁신학회 2007 기술혁신학회지 Vol.10 No.2

과학기술 수준을 정확히 측정ㆍ분석하기 위해서는 우리 기술수준과 비교대상의 위치, 그리고 해당 기술의 이론적인 상한 수준을 우선 전제해야만 한다. 그리고 각각의 기술변화 정도를 파악하는 것이 추가적으로 필요하다. 우리나라 및 비교대상에 대한 동태적 측면이 고려되어 현재의 위치와 함께 과정과 경로도 중요시 되어야 한다. 이를 위해서 이 연구는 기술발전 단계와 성장곡선 개념을 활용하는 방안을 제시한다. 이론적 및 가상적 사례 적용 결과, 우리나라 기술수준의 향상은 뚜렷하게 보이고 있으나 같은 기간에 지속적으로 변화하고 있는 세계최고기술 수준과는 여전히 격차가 존재하는 것으로 추정된다. 추정 결과가 사실이라고 가정할 경우, 우리나라 기술의 실질적인 추격의 가능성은 그리 크지 않은 것으로 보인다. 특히 바이오신약ㆍ장기 분야와 지능형로봇 분야의 경우에는 세계최고기술 수준과의 격차기간이 더욱 벌어지고 있는 것으로 추정되어 해당 분야에 대한 실질적이고, 심층적인 검토 및 분석이 시급히 요구된다. 이 연구는 기술수준 측정과 분석을 성장곡선 유형의 추정을 통해 위상분석과 변화과정을 파악하여 궁극적인 추격의 가능성을 제시한다. 이론적 타당성과 현실적 적용성에 대한 검증을 위해 향후 구체적인 사례분석이 필요하다. To estimate and analyze an interested science and technology level in any case requires three basic informations: (1) relative positions of our technology level, (2) other relevant technology level of the world best country holding the state of the art technology, and (3) its theoretical or practical maximum level within a certain period of time. Further, additional information from analyzing its respective rate of technology changes is necessary. It seems that most previous empirical or case studies on technology level have not considered third and fourth informations seriously, and thus critically have missed important findings from a dynamic point of view on the matter. A dynamic approach considering types of development processes and paths as well as current position needs an application of a concept of technology development stages and respective growth curves. This paper proposes a new method of approach and application by implementing relatively simple types of the growth curve(S-curve) such as logistic and Gomperts curves and applying estimation results of these curves to ten core technologies of the growth engines for the next future generation in Korea. The study implies that Korean science and technology level in general clearly gets higher as it approaches to a recent time of period, but relative technology gap from the world best in terms of catching-up period does not get better or narrower in case of at least part of the concerned technologies such as bio new drugs and human organs, and intelligence robots. The possibility does exist that some of our concerned technologies shooting for the next future generation may not come to the world highest level in the near future. The purpose of this study is to propose possibilities of catching-up, if any, by estimating its relevant type of growth pattern by way of measuring and analyzing technology level and by analyzing the technology development process through a position analysis. At this stage this study tries to introduce a new theoretical approach of estimating technology level and its application to existing case study results(data) from Korea Institute of Science and Technology Planning and Evaluation(KISTEP) and Korea Institute of Industrial Technology Evaluation and Planing(ITEP), for years of 2004 and 2006 respectively. The study has some limitations in terms of accuracy of measuring(estimating) a relevant growth curve to a particular technology, feasibility of applying estimated results, accessing and analyzing panel experts opinions. Hence, it is recommended that further study would follow soon enough to verify practical applicability and possible expansion of the study results.

과학기술혁신체제 하에서의 국가연구개발 평가 시스템 개선에 관한 연구

박병무(Pyengmu Bark),이기종(Ki Jong Lee) 한국기술혁신학회 2009 기술혁신학회지 Vol.12 No.4

R&D 규모의 확대는 평가의 효과성과 효율성 제고가 전제이다. R&D 예산 및 사업에 관한 시스템 평가는 예산의 조정?배분과 사업의 성과에 대한 평가로 구분된다. 이 논문은 예산의 조정?배분과 관련한 예산평가 시스템의 운영 측면에서 효율성 및 효과성을 제고하는 것에 중점을 둔 연구이다. 예산평가 시스템의 핵심 관점은 두 가지이다. 하나는 후행단계에서 이루어지는 사업에 대한 조사?분석과 평가의 관점을 예산평가에 보다 긴밀하게 연계시키는 것이며, 다른 하나는 이를 위해서 전반적인 종합조정의 시스템을 재조명하는 것이다. 예산은 정책?기획?집행으로 연결되는 과정이다. 사업을 매개체로 하여 정책에 부합하는 기획내용에 따라 예산을 활용하여 집행하는 것이 바람직한 것이다. 따라서 연구개발사업의 구조?체계와 예산항목(코드) 구조와의 연계 강화가 중요하다. 이것은 의사결정 시스템 차원에서 정책과 예산의 연계와 함께 이루어져야 한다. 또한 예산의 조정?배분, 정책과 사업의 성과평가, 연구개발사업 조사?분석 관련 시스템 상의 연계 강화와 운영일정에 대한 개선이 필요하다. 이를 위해서는 국가과학기술위원회(NSTC)의 기능이 정책기획 중심이 되어야 하며 정책부터 평가까지의 전과정상 객관성과 공정성이 확보될 수 있는 운영지원 체계로 개편되어야 한다. 조정?배분과 성과평가가 유기적으로 연계되는 평가 시스템이 되려면 이들의 집행일정과 조사?분석의 내용과 시기가 보다 효용성이 높아져야 한다. Proposed increases to the government's R&D budget should be discussed based on merits of meeting efficiency and effectiveness criteria. The evaluation of the national R&D budget and related programs are performed in two areas: a system of R&D budget coordination and allocation, and a system of R&D program performance. This paper mainly focuses on the operational areas of R&D budget evaluation system with a focus on their impact to efficiency and effectiveness. The core view point for a R&D budget evaluation system involves two directions: Firstly, to detail the relationships between the later stage (ex. post) activities such as, program survey, analysis, and program performance evaluation, with the budget evaluation. Secondly, to critically oversee all R&D coordination procedures with a different perspective. Budgeting is generally known as a serial process of policy making, planning and executing. It is highly desirable for the budget to be allocated to, and spent by, specific programs as planned, and that each plan be aligned with a specific policy. As such, a strong relevance between the program structure and budget code system is integral to successful execution. It should be performed using a decision making system which closely examines the link between policy and budget. It is also recommended that systematic relationships be maintained among budget coordination and allocation, performance evaluations of policy and program levels, and program survey and analysis system, and that their operational schedule should be reviewed comprehensively as a one integrated system. The National Science and Technology Council is expected to play a major and practical role as the center of policy planning and should be supported by the objective and unbiased system which covers overall process from policy making to program evaluation. Finally, increased utilization of contents, timely program survey and analysis, and accurate of activity scheduling of budget coordination and allocation, and diligent program performance evaluation all contribute towards a more efficient and effective overall evaluation system

성장곡선 모형을 활용한 일본 등 최고기술보유국과 한국 기술수준평가에 관한 비교연구

김완민(Kim, Wan-Min),박주찬(Park, Ju-Chan),박병무(Bark, Pyeng-Mu) 동북아시아문화학회 2017 동북아 문화연구 Vol.1 No.50

This paper introduces a new approach method on science and technology level assessment by using growth curve model concept. It may make readers possible to understand in dynamic analysis approach since growth model is rooted on the historical and empirical development of measuring biological growth pattern of plants, animals and viruses, etc. The paper used Gompertz and Weibull models and compared both models or which model might be better fitting. The Gompertz growth curve model has been the only and popular one used to analyze general technology level assessment in Korea for the last ten years since Bark(2007). There has been some arguments about possibility of other substitute model for the matter including Weibull model. Kim and Bark(2015) introduced the Weibull growth curve model to measure the technology level assessment of some fishery areas. This study tries widening its usage for more general scope of technology areas by introducing the result of fishery and construction engineering areas, which are relatively compared in terms of technology characteristics of its own. The study draws possible conclusion to see whether both Gompertz and Weibull models better represent growth pattern of biological oriented ones or which one better fits. Adding to that, the paper tries to see whether science and technology growth patterns of these two concerned areas are similar or identical with time lag between Korea and countries with the state-of-the art including Japan.

기술연관분석에 의한 건설기술과제의 우선순위결정

홍순기(Soon-ki Hong),박병무(Pyeng-mu Bark) 대한산업공학회 1998 대한산업공학회지 Vol.24 No.1

성장곡선 모형 적용을 통한 기술수준평가 사례 연구: 특정 수산과학기술 분야를 중심으로

김완민 ( Wan Min Kim ),박주찬 ( Ju Chan Park ),박병무 ( Pyeng Mu Bark ) 한국수산경영학회 2015 수산경영론집 Vol.46 No.3

The purpose of this paper is to discuss possibilities of applying growth curve models, such as Logistic, Log-Logistic, Log-Normal, Gompertz and Weibull, to three specific technology areas of Fishery Science and Technology in the process of measuring their technology level between Korea and countries with the state-of-the art level. Technology areas of hazard control of organism, environment restoration, and fish cluster detect were selected for this study. Expert panel survey was conducted to construct relevant panel data for years of 2013, 2016, and a future time of approaching the theoretical maximum technology level. The size of data was 70, 70 and 40 respectively. First finding is that estimation of shape and location parameters of each model was statistically significant, and lack-of-fit test using estimated parameters was statistically rejected for each model, meaning all models were good enough to apply for measuring technology levels. Second, three models other than Pearl and Gompertz seemed very appropriate to apply despite the fact that previous case studies have used only Gompertz and Pearl. This study suggests that Weibull model would be a very valid candidate for the purpose. Third, fish cluster detect technology level is relatively higher for both Korea and a country with the stateof- the-art among three areas as of 2013. However, all three areas seem to be approaching their limits(highest technology level point) until 2020 for countries with the state-of-the-art. This implies that Korea might have to speed up her research activities in order to catch up them prior to 2020. Final suggestion is that future study may better apply various and more appropriate models respectively considering each technology characteristics and other factors.

기술경영전공 재직자 대상 맞춤형 교육에 대한 연구

임홍탁(Lim, Hong-Tak),옥소연(Ock, So-Yeon),황준범(Hwang, Joon-Beom),박병무(Bark, Pyeng-Mu),옥영석(Ock, Yeong-Suk) 한국기술혁신학회 2018 한국기술혁신학회 학술대회 발표논문집 Vol.2018 No.5

본 연구는 기술경영전공 재직자(재학생 및 졸업생)들의 대학원 과정에 대한 만족도와 요구사항을 알아보기 위해, 부경대학교 기술경영전공자들을 대상으로 한 수요조사 결과를 분석하였다. 입학목적, 교육과정에 대한 만족도, 교육과정에 대한 요구사항에 대해 조사해보였으며, 연령별, 직위별, 직무별, 기업의 업종별, 기업의 형태별로 응답결과를 분석하였다. 전반적으로 세부전공 설치에 대한 요구가 높았다. 30-40대, 관리자들은 MOT 과정을 개인의 역량/포트폴리오 강화를 바라는 반면 40대 이상, 경영자들은 전문역량강화, 새로운 비즈니스창출, 네트워크 강화 등을 중요하게 여기고 있었다. 제조업 종사자들은 실무에의 기여를 중요한 요소로 꼽은 반면, 서비스업 종사자들은 신규 비즈니스의 창출을 중요한 요소로 밝혔다. 맞춤형 기술경영교육과정의 내용을 구체화하는 일에 유용한 자료로서 활용할 수 있으며, 보다 이론적인 작업을 위해 응답 재직자들의 원래 전공까지 고려하는 설문을 향후 연구과제로서 제안한다. The purpose of this research is to find out degree of satisfaction and requirements of graduate student of MOT(Management of Technology) by analyzing demand survey results of graduate school of management and technology, Pukyong National University. We investigate the purpose of admission, the satisfaction with the curriculum, and the requirement for curriculums. The results were analyzed by age, job title, job type, business type, and type of company. Overall, there was a high demand for the detailed majors. 30s and 40s, and managers wanted to strengthen their individual capacity and portfolio by MOT education course, while more than 40s and CEO considere strengthening their professional competencies, creating new business, and strengthening their relationship network. Workers in the manufacturing sector think the factor that can contribute to the practical business as a important factor, while workers in the service industry thing the creation of new businesses as an important factor. This study can be used as a useful resource for materializing the content of the customized MOT curriculum. For more theoretical work, we propose to consider the original major of the student in the questionnaire for the future work.

국가연구개발사업의 종합조정 제도개선방안에 관한 연구

정근하(Chung Keun-Ha),문진경(Moon Jin-Kyoung),박문수(Park MoonSoo),박병무(Bark Pyengmu) 한국기술혁신학회 2005 기술혁신학회지 Vol.8 No.1

韓 · 日 水産分野 技術變化 形態 比較硏究

박주찬(Park, Ju-Chan),김완민(Kim, Wan-Min),박병무(Bark, Pyeng-Mu) 동북아시아문화학회 2017 동북아 문화연구 Vol.1 No.51

This paper is to analyze the technological change patterns in Fishery areas of Korea and Japan, and to find out whether change patterns of these two countries are similar or identical due to the geographical closeness as well as historical, industrial and technological ties. To analyze the patterns this study uses the Weibull growth curve model on selected six fishery technology areas and further applies the reduced and full models in order to test an identical change pattern of two countries. This study draws a conclusion that the Weibull model perfectly fits to six areas based on the statistical significance test and suggests future studies should consider using the Weibull model as well as Gompertz model for a technology assessment task. The study also concludes that there would be significant possibilities of being identical or similar between two countries in most fishery technological change patterns with only time lag difference. Based on the result of the study, the statistical test suggests that there could be I denticalness in five areas such as resource cultivation, fishery structural facets, seedling production, diagnosis, and precaution and treatment technologies. These findings may be due to the same characteristics of each technology. The study also finds out that fishery food processing and distribution technology area is significantly different between Korea and Japan due to their own systematic and cultural difference of this area industry and market in each country. The study suggests that further study should put more efforts on finding unique and independent characteristics and differences in each technology area and applying a proper growth fitting model such as Weibull, Gompertz and others respectively.