서울의 기상 요인과 응급실을 방문한 자살 시도자간의 연관성

김승현(Seunghyeon Kim),박은식(Eunsik Park) 한국자료분석학회 2022 Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society Vol.24 No.3

자살은 한국에서 심각한 사회 문제이다. 자살 시도는 미래의 자살로 인한 사망에 대한 강력한 위험 요소이기에 자살 시도의 복합적인 요인에 관해 연구할 필요가 있다. 기후 변화는 세계적으로 중요한 문제이며, 여러 기상 요인들은 인간의 건강에 부정적인 영향을 끼친다. 본 연구에서는 2014년부터 2018년까지 기상 요인과 자살 시도로 인한 응급실 방문 환자간의 연관성을 탐색했다. 기상 요인은 서울시의 일 최저기온, 최고기온, 일교차, 평균 상대습도, 합계 일조시간, 평균전운량을 사용했다. 먼저 기상 요인을 경험적 누적 분포를 통해 백분위 수로 변환한 후 일자를 기준으로 각 기상 요인 별로 자살 시도자 자료와 결합한 뒤, 성·연령 표준화 자살 시도율을 구하였다. 계산 과정에서 기상 요인의 백분위 수별 5년간 날짜 수를 나누어 준 뒤, 최종적으로 일별 성·연령 표준화 자살 시도율을 구하였다. 종속변수의 분포가 감마 분포라는 가정하에 일반화 선형 회귀 모형을 사용했으며, 그 결과 최저기온, 최고기온, 상대습도가 증가함에 따라 자살 시도율이 유의하게 증가하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 기온 및 상대습도의 증가가 자살 시도를 유발하는 요인이 될 수 있음을 시사한다. Suicide is a serious social problem in Korea. Suicide attempts are a strong risk factor for death from future suicide, so it is necessary to study the complex factors of suicide attempts. Climate change is a global problem, and several meteorological factors negatively affect human health. This study explored the association between meteorological factors and emergency room visits due to suicide attempts in Seoul from 2014 to 2018. As meteorological factors, Seoul’s daily minimum temperature, maximum temperature, daily temperature difference, average relatively humidity, sunshine duration, and average cloud cover were used. First, meteorological factors were converted into percentiles through empirical cumulative distribution. After combining the data on suicide attempts and meteorological factors based on the subsequent date, the gender-age standardized suicide attempt rate was calculated using a direct standardization method. Finally, the gender and age-standardized suicide attempt rate per day was obtained after in the calculation process, divided by the number of days during 5 years for each percentile of the meteorological factor. A generalized linear regression model was used assuming that the the suicide attempt rate followed gamma distribution. As a result, the suicide attempt rate significantly increased as the minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity increased. The results of this study suggest that an increase in temperature and relative humidity can be a factor that causes suicide attempts.

기상 정보를 이용한 의류제품의 판매량 예측 모형 연구

홍진환,이현정 韓國商品學會 2013 商品學硏究 Vol.31 No.1

연구목적: 본 연구구에서는 날씨가 의류제품의 판매에 영향을 미친다는 기존 연구 결과를 바탕으로, 기상 요인들이 의류 제품의 판매에 미치는 영향을 알아보고, 과거 데이터에 대한 시계열분석을 통해서 판매량 예측 모형을 제시한다. 연구설계 및 방법론: 국내 유명 의류 제조업체의 각 품목별 일일 판매 데이터와 기상 정보 데이터의 분석을 통해서 기상 요인들이 판매에 미치는 영향을 알아보고, 이를 바탕으로 ARIMA 모델을 이용한 판매 예측 모형을 개발한다. 분석 및 연구 결과: 각 의류 품목에 계절 ARIMA 모형을 적용하여, 계절적 요인과 기온이나 강수량 등의 기상요인, 휴일 효과, 세일 기간 등을 포함한 시계열 판매량 예측 모형을 도출하였으며, 예측값이 얼마나 정확한지 확인하였다. 시사점 및 연구의 한계점: 의류 제품은 날씨가 판매량에 많은 영향을 미치는 계절 상품으로서, 의류 업체들은 기상 정보를 마케팅에 활용하기 위해 노력하고 있다. 본 연구에서 개발한 기상 정보를 활용한 의류제품의 판매량 예측 모형은 기상 변화에 따른 생산 및 주문 시기 조정, 재고관리, 판촉 전략 등 기업의 날씨 마케팅에 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대한다. 향후 연구 방향: 데이터의 한계가 있으며, 향후 연구는 의류 판매에 영향을 미치는 다른 변수들이나, 다른 기업의 데이터들을 포함하여, 연구의 타당성을 높이는 방향이 필요하다. 공헌점: 의류 제품은 날씨가 판매량에 많은 영향을 미치는 계절 상품으로서, 의류 업체들은 기상 정보를 마케팅에 활용하기 위해 노력하고 있다. 기상 정보가 판매에 미치는 영향에 대한 실증 연구로서 의미가 있다. Purpose: This study proposes a sales forecast model of apparel products using meteorological factors and the daily sales data from a leading Korean clothing company, based on previous studies on the influence of weather on the sales of apparel products. Design/methodology/approach: We analyze the influence of weather on the sales of each item, and propose a sales forecast model using a seasonal time-series ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model. This model considers seasonal factors, meteorological factors such as temperature and precipitation, and weekend factors to forecast the sales of each item. Results/findings: We identify the effects of meteorological factors on the sales of apparel products, and then we forecast the revenue using this model. Finally, we verify the accuracy of the sales forecast model. Research implications/limitations: Apparel products are widely recognized as seasonal products that are significantly affected by meteorological factors. The sales forecast model of apparel products considering real daily sales data and meteorological factors is expected to be used in diverse parts of weather marketing such as production and ordering, inventory management, and sales promotion. Future work/research: Future study must improve the forecast model validity of this study by adding other variables that influence sales, and by using sales data from other companies Originality/value: Fashion and apparel companies make efforts to use meteorological information for marketing. The contribution of this study can be found in the empirical test of the sales forecast model of apparel products, including real daily sales data and meteorological factors.

적조 기상정보 : 기상인자를 활용한 연안 적조예측 기술 개발

윤홍주 한국정보통신학회 2005 한국정보통신학회논문지 Vol.9 No.5

본 연구는 연안기상 정보를 효율적으로 이용하여 사전에 적조를 예찰하고 실용화하여 적조로부터의 재해를 저감하는데 있다. 이러한 적조예찰을 위해서는 기본적으로 우리나라 주변 해역의 적조발생에 관여하는 기상 및 해양인자들의 환경학적 특성을 파악하고 이들의 상관성으로부터 적조발생 가능성을 예측하는 정보를 제공하는 것이 매우 중요하다. 또한 이러한 정보를 공공의 활용에 쉽게 이용될 수 있게끔 정보시스템을 구축하는 것이 필요하다. 앞으로 본 연구의 결과는 이 분야에 관련되는 학계, 공공기관, 업계의 종사자들에게 유용한 정보로 활용될 것으로 기대되며 그리고 매년 연례행사처럼 국가적으로 문제시 되고 있는 우리나라 주변해역의 적조피해를 줄이는데 실질적으로 기여할 것이다. Red tide(harmful algae) in the Korean Coastal Waters has a given a great damage to the fishery every year. However, the aim of our study understands the influence of meteorological factors (air and water temperature, precipitation, sunshine, solar radiation, winds) relating to the mechanism of red tide occurrence and monitors red tide by satellite remote sensing, and analyzes the potential area for red tide occurrence by GIS. The meteorological factors have directly influenced on red tide formation. Thus, We want to predict and apply to red tide formation from statistical analyses on the relationships between red tide formation and meteorological factors. In future, it should be realized the near real time monitoring for red tide by the development of remote sensing technique and the construction of integrated model by the red tide information management system (the data base of red tide - meteorological informations). Finally our purpose is support to the prediction information for the possible red tide occurrence by coastal meteorological information and contribute to reduce the red tide disaster by the prediction technique for red tide.

Meteorological driven factors of population growth in brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens Stål (Hemiptera: Delphacidae), in rice paddies

Xiao‐Zhen Li,Yi ZOU,Hai-Yan YANG,Hai-Jun XIAO,Jian-Guo WANG 한국곤충학회 2017 Entomological Research Vol.47 No.5

Growth of brown planthopper (BPH) (Nilaparvata lugens Stål) in rice paddies is mainly driven by meteorological factors under similar management practices. By analyzing field investigation and meteorological data collected from 2008 to 2013 in Nanchang, China, we show that BPH population densities and monthly growth rates (BGR) changed greatly from May to October, and these changes were closely associated with meteorological factors. Stepwise regression and path analysis indicated average speed of winds (AW) in June and lowest temperature (LT) in July were the first factors entering analysis, which interpreted 46.20% and 31.90% of their influences on BGR. While highest temperature (HT) in August and average temperature (AT) in September were the most important factors affecting BGR, but their direct path coefficients were all smaller than their corresponding indirect path coefficients. In October, relative humidity (RH), AW and number of raining days (RD) had significant effects on BGR. According to the sum of each meteorological factor entering stepwise regression analysis sequences, we found AW had the utmost effect on BPH growth, followed by AT and RH, but LT and RD least. The work demonstrate dynamic meteorological factors driving BPH growth and outbreak in rice paddies, which would facilitate the development of durable approaches for forecasting and controlling this destructive rice pest.

적조기상정보 : 기상인자를 활용한 연안 적조예측기술 개발

윤홍주,Yoon Hong-Joo 한국정보통신학회 2005 한국정보통신학회논문지 Vol.9 No.4

본 연구는 연안기상 정보를 효율적으로 이용하여 사전에 적조를 예찰하고 실용화하여 적조로부터의 재해를 저감하는데 있다. 이러한 적조예찰을 위해서는 기본적으로 우리나라 주변 해역의 적조발생에 관여하는 기상 및 해양인자들의 환경학적 특성을 파악하고 이들의 상관성으로부터 적조발생 가능성을 예측하는 정보를 제공하는 것이 매우 중요하다. 또한 이러한 정보를 공공의 활용에 쉽게 이용될 수 있게끔 정보시스템을 구축하는 것이 필요하다. 앞으로 본 연구의 결과는 이 분야에 관련되는 학계, 공공기관, 업계의 종사자들에게 유용한 정보로 활용될 것으로 기대되며 그리고 매년 연례행사처럼 국가적으로 문제시 되고 있는 우리나라 주변해역의 적조피해를 줄이는데 실질적으로 기여할 것이다. Red tide(harmful algae) in the Korean Coastal Waters has a given a given damage to the fishery every year. However, the aim of our study understands the influence of meteorological factors (air and water temperature, precipitation sunshine, solar radiation, winds) relating to the mechanism of red tide occurrence and monitors red tide by satellite remote sensing, and analyzes the potential area for red tide occurrence by GIS. The meteorological factors have directly influenced on red tide formation. Thus, We want to predict and apply to red tide formation from statistical analyses on the relationships between red tide formation and meteorological factors. In future, it should be realized the near real time monitoring for red tide by the development of remote sensing technique and the construction of integrated model by the red tide information management system (the data base of red tide - meteorological informations. Finally our purpose is support to the prediction information for the possible red tide occurrence by coastal meteorological information and contribute to reduce the red tide disaster by the prediction technique for red tide.

월동작형 배추와 무의 생산량에 영향을 미치는 기상요인 분석

김인겸 ( In Gyum Kim ),박기준 ( Ki Jun Park ),김백조 ( Baek Jo Kim ) 한국농림기상학회 2013 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.15 No.2

본 연구는 급격한 가격변동으로 소비자 물가에 직접적인 영향을 미치고 있는 배추와 무를 선정하여 단위 면적당 수확량과 기상요소의 관계를 밝히고자 하였다. 기존에 농작물과 기상요소의 관계를 분석한 연구들은 넓은 지역을 대표하는 특정 지점의 기상자료를 사용하였으나 본 연구에서는 개별 농경지에서 가장 가까운 지점의 기상자료를 사용하였다. 특히 지역의 계약재배 담당자들과의 인터뷰에 기반하여 수집된 농업자료를 그대로 사용하지 않고, 농업과 기상자료의 가공을 통해 좀 더 세부적인 분석을 시도하였으며, 도출된 유의한 기상요소들은 기존의 연구들에서 제시한 상관계수들보다 높게 나타나 농산물의 단수추정에 기상요소가 중요하게 활용될 수 있음을 보였다. 분석 결과 월동배추·무의 생육기간 동안 각각 최저기온과 최고기온이 단수와 관련이 많은 것으로 드러났는데, 향후 기상청과 같은 기상정보 제공자들은 재배 지역에 농업기상정보를 제공하고자 할 때, 농산물과 지역의 특성을 고려한 세부기상요소를 중점적으로 제공하면 효과를 거둘 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. Among many factors, especially meteorological conditions can impact agricultural productivities. This study was conducted to analyze the relationships between crop yield and meteorological factors. We collected meteorological data (i.e., temperature and precipitation) from Automatic Weather Station (AWS) of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and yield data of Chinese cabbage and Radish from local Nonghyup (NCAF: National Agricultural Cooperative Federation) and Farmers` Corporate Association. The agricultural data were classified into two groups. These groups are comprised of the farmers who produced a crop under 29kg/3.3㎡ and over 29kg/3.3㎡ respectively. The daily meteorological data were calculated from the average value for ten days. After the regression analysis, we drew a conclusion that the yield of Chinese cabbage (Haenam) is related to average temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, number of days with precipitation, while that of Radish (Jeju) is related to average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature. The result suggests that the meteorological data will be used more effectively for the prediction of crop yield.

기상 변화에 따른 알레르기 유발식물과 알레르기질환 간의 상관관계

김주화 ( Joo Hwa Kim ),오재원 ( Jae Won Oh ),이하백 ( Ha Baik Lee ),김성원 ( Seong Won Kim ),정혜리 ( Hai Lee Chung ),국명희 ( Myung Hee Kook ),박강서 ( Kang Seo Park ),김봉성 ( Bong Seong Kim ),김자경 ( Ja Kyung Kim ),이동진 ( Do 대한천식알레르기학회 2014 Allergy Asthma & Respiratory Disease Vol.2 No.1

Purpose: There are a number of reports suggesting that widespread propagation of weeds and high concentration of weed pollen have been contributed to climate change. We investigated the inte rrelationship between allergenic pollen concentration, allergic symptom and meteorological factor. Methods: We collected data of pollen concentration and meteorological factors in 7 stations nationwide during between 1998 and 2012. We recruited total 297 allergic patients sensitized to weed pollens from each station, conducted a survey about allergic symptom, and calculated symptom index. We surveyed the vegetation area of ragweed and Japanese hop. Based on these data, we performed the long-term trend analysis (X11-ARIMA, autoregressive integrated moving average) on regional pollen concentration, and correlation analysis to investigate the interrelation between weed pollen concentration, allery symptom index and meteorological factor. We have also done regression analysis on vegetation area and maximal pollen concentration. Results: Long-term trend analysis showed the increasing trend of pllen concentration in Seoul. Weed pollen concentration, allergy symptom index and each meteorological factor were not correlated significantly. Regression analysis revealed that increase of weed vegetation area results in increase of weed pollen concentration. Through this regression equation, we estimated the vegetation area that can product pollen concentration triggering allergenic risk. Conclusion: Meteorological factors, pollen concentration and allergic symptoms should be consistently assessed and the relationship between each factor should be analyzed, considering climate change. It is necessary to verify the equation for pollen estimation by vegetation area and set up a policy for vegetation control focused on the reduction of allergenic pollen. (Allergy Asthma Respir Dis 2014;2:48-58)

기상인자가 농업용 저수지 저수량에 미치는 영향연구

안소라,박민지,박근애,김성준,Ahn, So-Ra,Park, Min-Ji,Park, Geun-Ae,Kim, Seong-Joon 한국농공학회 2007 한국농공학회논문집 Vol.49 No.4

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between meteorological factors and agricultural reservoir storage, and predict the reservoir storage by multiple regression equation selected by high correlated meteorological factors. Two agricultural reservoirs (Geumgwang and Gosam) located in the upsteam of Gongdo water level gauging station of Anseong-cheon watershed were selected. Monthly reservoir storage data and meteorological data in Suwon weather station of 21 years (1985-2005) were collected. Three cases of correlation (case 1: yearly mean, case 2: seasonal mean dividing a year into 3 periods, and case 3: lagging the reservoir storage from 1 month to 3 months under the condition of case 2) were examined using 8 meteorological factors (precipitation, mean/maximum/minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hour, wind velocity and evaporation). From the correlation analysis, 4 high correlated meteorological factors were selected, and multiple regression was executed for each case. The determination coefficient ($R^{2}$) of predicted reservoir storage for case 1 showed 0.45 and 0.49 for Geumgwang and Gosam reservoir respectively. The predicted reservoir storage for case 2 showed the highest $R^{2}$ of 0.46 and 0.56 respectively in the period of April to June. The predicted reservoir storage for 1 month lag of case 3 showed the $R^{2}$ of 0.68 and 0.85 respectively for the period of April to June. The results showed that the status of agricultural reservoir storage could be expressed with couple of meteorological factors. The prediction enhanced when the storage data are divided into periods rather than yearly mean and especially from the beginning time of paddy irrigation (April) to high decrease of reservoir storage (June) before Jangma.

기상요인이 의류제품 판매량에 미치는 영향 - F/W 판매데이터(9월~익년 2월)를 근거로 -

김은희 ( Eun Hie Kim ),황보현우 ( Hyunwoo Hwangbo ),채진미 ( Jin Mie Chae ) 복식문화학회 2017 服飾文化硏究 Vol.25 No.2

The purpose of this study was to investigate meteorological factors` effects on clothing sales based on empirical data from a leading apparel company. The daily sales data were aggregated from “A” company`s store records for the Fall/Winter season from 2012 to 2015. Daily weather data corresponding to sales volume data were collected from the Korea Meteorological Administration. The weekend effect and meteorological factors including temperature, wind, humidity, rainfall, fine dust, sea level pressure, and sunshine hours were selected as independent variables to calculate their effects on A company`s apparel sales volume. The analysis used a SAS program including correlation analysis, t-test, and multiple-regression analysis. The study results were: First, the weekend effect was the most influential factor affecting sales volume, followed by fine dust and temperature. Second, there were significant differences in the independent variables`effects on sales volume according to the garments` classification. Third, temperature significantly affected outer garments`sales volume, while top garments` sales volume was not influenced significantly. Fourth, humidity, sea level pressure and sunshine affected sales volume partly according to the garments` item. This study can provide proof of significant relationships between meteorological factors and the sales volume of garments, which will serve well to establish better inventory strategies.

인삼 생산량과 기상요인과의 관련성 분석

지경진 ( Ji Kyung Jin ),이윤숙 ( Lee Yoonsuk ),이종인 ( Lee Jong In ) 한국농촌계획학회 2021 농촌계획 Vol.27 No.2

This study focuses on the relationship between ginseng production per area and meteorological factors. Four areas of major ginseng production are considered in the study. Chungcheongnam-do and Gyengsangbuk-do are selected as the original major production places and Gyeonggi-do and Kangwon-do are selected as the new major places. The meteorological factors applied for study are the average temperature, accumulated precipitation, and integrated sunshine hours. With the data collected across four areas, we used a panel data analysis. From the results of Hausman test, the fixed effects model allowing to control individual area effect is preferable to the random effects model. Based on the results of the fixed effects model, the accumulated precipitation statistically and significantly affect the decreases in ginseng production. Changes in the average temperature negatively affect ginseng production, but the value is not statistically significant. The integrated sunshine positively affect ginseng production, but the value is not statistically significant.