천연가스산업에서 날씨파생상품의 헤지수요 및 성과분석

문성주 ( Seongju Moon ),손판도 ( Pando Sohn ) 아시아.유럽미래학회 2013 유라시아연구 Vol.10 No.1

본 연구에서는 날씨파생상품이 한국의 천연가스산업에서 어떻게 적용이 될 수 있고, 만약 개발된 기후파생상품이 헤지 수단으로 이용된다면 이러한 성과가 어떻게 나타나는지를 실증 검증한다. 기후파생상품은 최근에야 자연재해에 따른 헤지 수단으로 개발되고 있다. 이러한 이유는 과거에는 자연재해에 따른 손실규모가 작아서 보험을 통하여 주로 헤지가 이루어졌지만, 최근 전 세계적인 이상기후 변화에 따른 자연재해는 과거보다 훨씬 손실규모가 커서 보험으로만 현실적으로 커버될 수 없다. 이러한것에 대한 대안으로 날씨 파생상품이 이용될 수 있음이 제시되었다. 과거 미국의 경우를 보면 보험회사가 자연재해에 대한 손실을 커버하는 형태 이었지만, 이러한 방법은 자연재해의 규모 및 빈도가 증가함에 따라 보험회사들이 모든 손실보험금을 부보 할 수는 없었기 때문에 많은 보험회사들이 파산하는 사례가 발생하였던 것이다. 또한 기상이변에 따른 위험관리 수단으로 금융시장 내 법적 규제 등이 완화되었고, 이러한 탈규제로 인하여 새로운 금융환경 및 상품의 혁신이 일어났다. 따라서 금융시장에서도 기후변화에 따른 대 재앙을 커버 하려는 새로운 상품이 탄생한 것이다. 기후이상 현상으로 기업들은 막대한 경제적 손실에 직면하게 되고 이러한 손실을 회피하기 위한 수단이 보다 더 중요하게 되었다. 특히 기후와 직접적으로 관련된 많은 곡물생산 및 가공산업, 운송산업, 전기가전산업, 건설산업 등의 경우 기상이변 현상에 따라 해당 산업에 속한 기업들의 직간접적 경제적 피해로 인해 기업의 이익변동성이 확대가 되고 있다. 따라서 지속적으로 증가하고 있는 기상이변에 따른 날씨파생상품을 활용한 위험관리가 기업활동을 하는데 얼마나 중요한지를 알 수 있다. 따라서 이러한 중요성을 기초로 본 논문에서는 우리나라 에너지원의 중요한 축을 담당하고 있는 천연가스 산업에 초점을 맞추어 날씨파생상품의 헤지수요 및 헤지성과를 실증분석 하고자 한다. 즉 본 논문에서 날씨 파생상품이 국내 천연가스 산업에 어떻게 적용될 수 있으며 만일 파생상품이 이용된다면 이에 따른 헤지성과를 측정하는 것이 주 목적이다. 본 연구실증분석 결과로는 헤지수요 및 성과측면에서 천연가스산업에서 큰 헤지수요가 존재하였고, HDD 선물 및 옵션을 통해 헤지할 경우 무헤지 상태보다 비용을 절감하는 동시에 위험허용수준을 초과하지 않았다는 증거가 제시되었다. 따라서 이러한 결과는 우리나라 천연가스산업에서도 날씨파생상품의 도입 및 위험헤지 기능이 존재한다는 것을 알 수 있으며 이를 통하여 기업 및 개인들의 투자활동 영역이 확대되고 이러한 상품을 기초로 한 위험헤지 기능이 향상되어 자본시장의 모든 참가자들이 모두 다 날씨파생상품의 개발에 따른 혜택 뿐만 아니라 위험관리도 보다 더 쉽게 할 수 있음을 알 수 있다. 본 연구를 통하여보다 더 많은 날씨파생상품에 대한 연구가 활발히 일어나고 관련 산업 및 헤지 수단이 개발되기를 본 저자들은 기대한다. This paper develops and evaluate how weather derivative product is applied to natural gas industry. If developed weather derivative product is used as hedge tool, what is hedge performance from natural gas industry in Korea. Recently weather derivative product is developed as hedge tool because the loss from natural catastrophe in past time was small amount and also this loss is hedge easily. However, today, huge loss from natural hazard is not covered by only insurance coverage. Instead of insurance tool, many papers suggest the weather derivative product which is good tool to cover huge loss from natural catastrophe. A financial weather contract can be defined as a weather contingent contract whose payoff will be in an amount of cash determined by future weather events. The settlement as values of a weather variable measured at a stated location. A financial weather contract can take the form of a weather derivative or of a weather insurance contract. While the differences between the two types of contracts might be important from regulatory and legal viewpoints, from an economic perspective both instruments share the common feature of being triggered by an underlying weather index. In discussing agricultural policy and risk management tools, this is probably the most relevant aspect. Weather derivative financial product contract can be used to hedge businesses exposition to weather variables. If the activity of a firm is influenced by temperature, snowfall or shushine, a derivative on the appropriate weather variable could be used to reduce revenue fluctuation. Weather has always been a source of risk for many economic activities, but it was not until the late 1990``s that firms explored the possibility of hedging against weather-related variability through weather derivatives. The impetus for developing weather markets was given by the deregulation of the US energy sector, when local monopolies had to start competing on broader markets and find measures to stabilize fluctuating revenues. Ordinary insurance and reinsurance tools were traditionally designed to target catastrophic events, and were probably too expensive and not sufficiently flexible for ordinary risk management practices that focus on fluctuations closer to the mean of the distribution. Faced with these challenges, energy traders started thinking of financial solutions for trading their exposure to weather risks within their own industry. In this paper, we focuses on the natural gas industry and investigates the hedge demand and performance using daily weather data. The natural gas industry is one of most important energy industry and thus analyzing this natural gas industry is contrubution to development of weather derivative product and hedge of huge natural catastrophe risk. From this paper, we develop the weather derivative product appropriated to Korean natural gas industry and also evaluate the hedge demand and performance. The empirical results are as follow: we find that big hedge demand in Korean natural gas industry exists from hedge performance and demand. Also we show that if it is hedge based on HDD futures and options, cost in hedge case is less than cost in no hedge case and also we find that there is no excess than allowed risk level. We think that this paper give us new prospective view in terms of financial innovation and financial engineering as well as financial industry.

기상정보를 활용한 태양광 발전량 모니터링 계량모형

주영찬,김정인,박성용 재단법인 에너지경제연구원 2019 에너지경제연구 Vol.18 No.1

As the weather services markets enter the new phase due to information integration and open information services, a lot of service providers start to consider new weather business models using these preliminary data. This study proposes a simple econometric model that can monitor the photovoltaic and provide contextual information using various weather information. To analyze the effects of weather conditions (insolation, temperature, precipitation, wind speed, humidity and cloud) on the daily photovoltaic located in Seoul, Hongseong and Uiseong, we incorporate a quantile regression approach that has been widely used in economic literature. In addition, data format transformations are considered to take care of nonlinearity of the time-series variables. This study provides photovoltaic monitoring methods by estimating the conditional distributions of hourly power performances. 기상정보시장이 정부의 공공정보 개방과 정보융합환경 구축으로 새로운 국면을 맞이함에 따라 많은 사업자들은 기초기상정보를 활용한 새로운 비즈니스모델을 기대하고 있다. 이 연구에서는 이러한 수요에 맞는 정보를 제공하고자 다양한 기상정보를 활용하여 태양광 발전량을 모니터링할 수 있는 실질적인 표준 계량모형을 제안하였다. 본 연구에서는 잘 알려진 분위수회귀모형을 사용하여 서울, 홍성, 의성에 위치한 일별 태양광 발전량에 일사량, 기온, 강수량, 풍속, 습도, 전운량이 미치는 영향을 추정하였다. 또한 변수의 비선형성을 고려한 변수 변환 방법을 사용함으로써 예측의 정확성을 높이고자 하였다. 또한 시간별 발전량의 조건부분포를 추정하여 태양광 발전을 모니터링 할 수 있는 방법을 제시하였다.

건물 에너지 성능 평가용 서울ㆍ울산 표준기상데이터에 관한 연구

유호천(Yoo Ho-Chun),이관호(Lee Kwan-Ho),박소희(Park So-Hee),박유라(Park Yu-Ra),김경률(Kim Kyoung-Ryul) 한국건축친환경설비학회 2007 한국건축친환경설비학회 논문집 Vol.1 No.1

An energy performance of a building and its power consumption are estimated by using a computer simulation program in order to save the energy during its planning step of the construction. Weather data is an important variable for the estimation value of the program for evaluating energy performance. However, in the program for evaluating energy performance, weather data for domestic areas are not always included or weather data for domestic areas limited to certain areas in Seoul. Thus, the study is a foundation study suggesting weather data that is applicable to a computer simulation program reflecting characteristics of Korean weather.

M5 등급 낮은조명 개발 및 기존 등주식 조명과 시지각적 성능 비교

진민수,정준화 한국도로학회 2021 한국도로학회논문집 Vol.23 No.1

PURPOSES : The purpose of this study is to introduce the development of M5 low-level lighting (LLL) with the necessity and justification, mainly the ecological traffic safety merits and the convenience and traffic efficiency of maintenance compared to the existing high mounted pole lightings. The basic photometric property of the developed facility is analyzed. The visual performance is analyzed in terms of visibility distance and subjective opinions from the subjects on several factors related to lighting performance. METHODS : The basic photometric properties of LLL were measured in a tunnel-shaped shield with a visibility meter (LMK 5 Color). The visibility distance between LLL and existing pole-based lighting was observed by 13 subjects under various weather conditions, such as dry, rainy, and wet conditions. In addition, the subjective opinions in terms of several pre-designed factors regarding lighting performance were surveyed. RESULTS : The developed M5 LLL satisfied photometric requirements such as average surface luminance, overall uniformity, and lane uniformity, as suggested by the lighting guidelines. More than 200 m of visibility distances were measured under normal weather conditions for both LLL and existing pole lightings. However, more than 200 m were observed under a wet surface and a rain intensity of 20 mm/h in the case of LLL, but visibility distance was reduced to 48.46 m in the case of pole lightings. A higher visibility distance was observed in the case of amber colored LLL. According to the results of the subjective opinion survey, all types of lightings had favored ratings, and the whitecolored LLL showed the highest ratings under normal weather conditions. However, existing pole lightings had unfavorable ratings under wet surface and rainy conditions, whereas the amber colored LLL had favorable ratings compared to pole lightings in terms of uniformity of illumination, glare, and psychological stability. CONCLUSIONS : The necessity of M5 LLL lies on the cost-effective application to the low standard roadways where the cost is always the main factor to consider in safety facilities and the ecological benefits of roadsides. The developed LLL satisfied the basic optical property suggested by the related lighting guidelines and showed higher performance in terms of visibility distance across various weather conditions compared to the existing high mounted pole lightings.

기상 및 기후 연구 분야의 슈퍼컴퓨터 보유 추이 분석

조민수(Minsu Joh),박혜선(Hyei-Sun Park) 한국기상학회 2005 대기 Vol.15 No.2

It is challenging work to predict weather and climate conditions of the future in advance. Since ENIAC was developed, weather and climate research areas have been taking advantage of the improvements in computer hardware. High performance computers allows researchers to build high quality models that allow them to make good predictions of what might happen in the future. Statistics on the high performance computers are one of the major interest to not only manufacturers but also the users such as weather and climate researchers. For this reason, the Top500 Supercomputer Sites Report has been being released twice a year since 1993 to provide a reliable basis for tracking and detecting trends in high performance computing. Using the Top500 Report, a short review on the supercomputer trends in weather and climate research areas is provided in this article.

TRNSYS 프로그램을 이용한 대형쇼핑매장 에너지성능해석 및 지열시스템을 도입하는 경우 에너지절약 특성분석

홍원표(Won-Pyo Hong) 한국조명·전기설비학회 2015 조명·전기설비학회논문지 Vol.29 No.1

Energy consumption in buildings is currently a real problem. That is why both assessment of energy performance and effective energy management including renewable energy system are essential. Thus, this paper focuses on a case study to analyze the energy performance and cooling & heating energy saving of a large scale shopping store in Daejeon city. The reference building is simulated by using TRNSYS dynamic simulation tool to examine its annual energy consumption. For annual energy analysis of building, one year energy consumption is surveyed in the field. The related study is carried out in large scale shopping store to investigate the energy consumption and energy use trend of heating, cooling, hot water, lighting, ventilation, equipments and other. The evaluation of energy performance of the geothermal heat pump system installed in a large scale shopping store is also analyzed by TRNSYS tool. From simulation results, it evaluated that the geothermal heat pump system is effective energy savings method in large scale shopping store.

Impact of future climate change on UK building performance

Amoako-Attah, Joseph,B-Jahromi, Ali Techno-Press 2013 Advances in environmental research Vol.2 No.3

Global demand for dwelling energy and implications of changing climatic conditions on buildings confront the built environment to build sustainable dwellings. This study investigates the variability of future climatic conditions on newly built detached dwellings in the UK. Series of energy modelling and simulations are performed on ten detached houses to evaluate and predict the impact of varying future climatic patterns on five building performance indicators. The study identifies and quantifies a consistent declining trend of building performance which is in consonance with current scientific knowledge of annual temperature change prediction in relations to long term climatic variation. The average percentage decrease for the annual energy consumption was predicted to be 2.80, 6.60 and 10.56 for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s time lines respectively. A similar declining trend in the case of annual natural gas consumption was 4.24, 9.98 and 16.1, and that for building emission rate and heating demand were 2.27, 5.49 and 8.72 and 7.82, 18.43 and 29.46 respectively. The study further analyse future heating and cooling demands of the three warmest months of the year and ascertain future variance in relative humidity and indoor temperature which might necessitate the use of room cooling systems to provide thermal comfort.

Comparing building performance of supermarkets under future climate change: UK case study

Agha Usama Hasan,Ali Bahadori-Jahromi,Anastasia Mylona,Marco Ferri,Hexin Zhang Techno-Press 2022 Advances in energy research Vol.8 No.1

Focus on climate change and extreme weather conditions has received considerable attention in recent years. Civil engineers are now focusing on designing buildings that are more eco-friendly in the face of climate change. This paper describes the research conducted to assess the impact of future climate change on energy usage and carbon emissions in a typical supermarket at multiple locations across the UK. Locations that were included in the study were London, Manchester, and Southampton. These three cities were compared against their building performance based on their respective climatic conditions. Based on the UK Climatic Projections (UKCP09), a series of energy modelling simulations which were provided by the Chartered Institute of Building Service Engineers (CIBSE) were conducted on future weather years for this investigation. This investigation ascertains and quantifies the annual energy consumption, carbon emissions, cooling, and heating demand of the selected supermarkets at the three locations under various climatic projections and emission scenarios, which further validates annual temperature rise as a result of climatic variation. The data showed a trend of increasing variations across the UK as one moves southwards, with London and Southampton at the higher side of the spectrum followed by Manchester which has the least variability amongst these three cities. This is the first study which investigates impact of the climate change on the UK supermarkets across different regions by using the real case scenarios.

전통건축 서까래의 풍화손상에 따른 잔존성능 평가

김영민(Kim Yeong-Min),김왕직(Kim Wang-Jik),김호수(Kim Ho-Soo),정성진(Jung Sung-Jin),김덕문(Kim Derk-Moon) 대한건축학회 2011 大韓建築學會論文集 : 構造系 Vol.27 No.9

In this study the weathering damage of rafters are classified as five categories under visual inspection, and for each category both axial and flexural rigidity are evaluated so as to establish criteria for decision making whether the rafters could be reused or not according to the level of weathering damage. For each category of rafters, axial load bearing test and flexural bending test are performed to acquire both axial and flexural elastic modulus. Along with these tests, sectional area and second moment of inertia for the remaining undamaged section are calculated to evaluate both axial and flexural rigidity. The B level - slightly damaged level - rafters still retain flexural rigidity of 3/4 degree and can be reused partially for the rafters. Meanwhile, though the C level rafters can not be reused as rafters but still retain axial rigidity of 2/3 degree and can be reused as axial member. The D and E level rafters can not be reused not only as rafters but also as axial member.

Impact by Estimation Error of Hourly Horizontal Global Solar Radiation Models on Building Energy Performance Analysis

Kim, Kee Han,Oh, John Kie-Whan 한국생태환경건축학회 2014 한국생태환경건축학회 논문집 Vol.14 No.2