지역소득 수렴여부와 성장요인 분석 : 동태 이질적 패널모형의 활용 Application of Dynamic Heterogenous Panel Model

兪炳喆,朴晟翼 한국국제경제학회 2004 국제경제연구 Vol.10 No.2

본 논문은 우리나라의 지역별 일인당 GRDP, 인적자본, 저축률 등의 패널자료를 이용하여 지역 간 소득의 수립여부와 지역경제성장요인에 대해 연구하였다. 본 논문의 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째로, 소득수렴여부에 대해서는 α-convergence와 β-convergence가 서로 다른 결과를 보여주고 있다. 그리고 IPS 방법에 의한 패널 단위근 검정결과는 지역 간 일인당 소득이 수렴하지 않음을 시사하고 있다. 따라서 지역 간 일인당 소득의 수렴여부에 대한 단정적인 결론을 도출하는 것은 아직 무리가 있다. 둘째로 지역경제성장 요인에 대해서는 인적자본을 포함한 신고전파 성장모형의 성장회귀식을 이용하였는데, 구체적으로 동태고정효과모형, 평균그룹모형, 접합평균그룹모형에 대하여 검정하였다. 동 검정결과에 의하면, 초기 소득, 인적자본, 물적자본 등이 성장률에 미치는 영향은 장기에는 지역 간 차이가 없으나, 단기에는 지역 간 차이가 있음을 알 수 있다. 또한 균제상태로의 수렴속도를 나타내는 계수와 교란항의 분산도 단기에 지역 간 차이가 존재하는 것을 알 수 있다. 이 결과는 접합평균그룹모형이 적합하다는 것을 의미한다. 아울러 인적자본이 장기적으로 지역경제성장에 큰 영향을 미친다는 점도 확인되었다. This paper studies convergence of regional income and determinants of regional economic growth using regional panel data. First, per-capita GRDP, human capital and savings rate are calculated on regional level, and then convergence of regional income and determinants of regional economic growth are analyzed utilizing various methods. Related to regional income convergence, tests by a-convergence and 8-convergence exhibit contradicting results, and panel-roots test by IPS method suggests that regional GRDP does not converge. Accordingly, it seems to be premature to make any conclusive remarks on regional income convergence. Determinants of regional economic growth are analyzed utilizing human capital-augmented neoclassical economic growth equation. Hypothesis testings by DFE, MG, and PMG models reveal that initial income, human capital and physical capital do not show any significant regional differences on economic growth in the long-run, while those manifest short-run regional differences. In addition, there are short-run regional differences in terms of speed of convergence to steady-state and variances of disturbances. All these results support validity of PMG model. Finally it is also confirmed that human capital strongly contributes to economic growth in the long-run.

Endogenous Growth:Contributions of Human Capital to Economic Development in Korea and East Asia

Jang,Chang-Won 成均館大學校 韓國産業硏究所 1995 韓國經濟 Vol.22 No.-

本 硏究의 주요한 焦點은 한국의 經濟成長源泉으로 人的資源의 役割을 찾는데 있었고 첫째, 目標模型은 新古典學派 Solow理論을 延長하여 設定했다. 둘째, 典型的으로 資本增加의 內生的인 一人當 經濟成長模型은 1965~1989년의 中期期間동안 東아시아 7個國을 實證的으로 確定했다. 다음에 成長要素들의 推定係數의 의미, 東아시아 7個國의 一人當 成長에 대한 各要素의 直接關聯寄與分, 한국에서 일인당성장에 대한 교육의 間接關聯寄與分, 韓國과 東아시아間 각생산요소 축적에 기인한 經濟成長差의 크기를 찾아냈다. 주요 具體的 사실과 政策合意는 아래와 같다. 한국에서 추정치중 65%가 중등교육등록률에 기인하고 있으며 초등학교교육은 36.2% 대학교육은 4.7%에 이르는 것으로 나타났고 물적자본은 24.9%, 단순노동력은 단지 6.6%만 기여한 것으로 나타났다. 敎育의 生産性 기여는 현대의 일인당 성장모형에서 가장 중요한 요소로 주어진다. 이 模型은 또한 規模에 따른 收益遞增을 이그는 내생적인 技術變化를 도모한다. 일인당 성장에 대한 敎育效果는 3가지 경로를 보여준다. ① 敎育水準의 증가를 통해 勞動力은 技能을 증가시키며 이로인하여 生産性을 증가시키며, ② R&D의 行態에 대한 大學敎育의 投資寄與 및 企業을 위한 R&D需要의 訓鍊을 통해 內生的인 기술이 변화하며, 그리고 ③ 선진국으로부터 技術移轉과 작업중 新技術을 배우고 채택하는 能力提高를 통한 효과를 의미한다. Endogenous growth in East Asia is seen in this thesis to be results of an interaction between the expansion of education with the diffusion of capacities to adapt and use more productive technologies. These human resource capacities in the labor force have been essential and aided the export-oriented gorwth stategies that each of these nations have prusued. The main theme of this thesis was to investigate the role of human capital as a source of economic growth inKorea. In this study, first, the objective model was built by extending neoclassical Solow growth theory. Secon, the capital deepering typical of an endogenous economic per-capita growth model was developed empirically for seven East-Asian economies as for the medium term, during 1965~1989. And then we found the meaning of coefficients of growth factors, direct relative contribution of each input to per-capita growth in seven East-Asian countries, relative indirect contribution of education to per-capita growth in Korea, accounting for difference due to accumulation in Korea. The indirect relative conributions of secondary and higher education and R&D to per-capita growth change the results somewhat. Secondary education is still the largest single contributor Sixty-five persent of predicted growth is due to secondary school enrollment in Korea. Primary education comes second with 36.2 percent and followed by higher education at 4.7 percent. Physical investment gives 24.9 percent and unimproved raw labor contributes only 6.6 percent. The productivity of education is given prime importance in modern per capita growth models. These models also accommodate endogenous technological change leading to increasing returns to scale. The effects of education on per capita growth are seen in three ways: (1) through the increased educational attainment as the lavor force increases their skills and hence their productivity, (2) through the contribution of investment in higher education to the conduct of R&D, and the training of R&D demand for firms as endogenous technical change, and (3) through the ability to transfer the technology from more advaced countries, as well as to learn and adapt to new technologies on the job.

한국경제의 성장과 생산성 수렴(Productivity Convergence)

이근희(Keunhee Rhee),표학길(Hak K. Pyo) 서울대학교 경제연구소 2022 經濟論集 Vol.61 No.1

한국경제가 1970년대 석유위기, 1997-98년 외환위기, 2008-09년 글로벌 금융위기, 그리고 최근에 코로나 위기 등을 경험하면서 경제성장률이‘80년대 고도성장기를 지나 2010년대 저성장 국면에 직면해 있다. 이러한 경제성장의 둔화는 한국경제에 내재한 구조적 속성에 의한 것인가? 아니면 다른 나라에서도 경험할 수 있는 일반적 현상인가? 집계 수준, 산업별 수준, ICT 부문별 수준 등에서 한국경제는 선진국의 노동생산성 수준을 추격하고 있으며(β-convergence), 이는 OECD 내에서 발견될 수 있는 일반적 현상으로 확인되고 있다. 그러나 한국경제의 노동생산성 증가율이 ‘80년대를 정점으로 둔화되기 시작하면서 생산성 수렴 속도가 둔화되고 있다. 이제 한국경제는 인구증가율 둔화 및 감소에도 불구하고, 이를 상쇄시킬 수 있는 생산성 증가율을 통해 수렴 속도를 높이고, 지속적으로 선진국과의 생산성 수준 격차를 줄여나가는 것이 중요한 정책 방향 중 하나가 되어야 할 것이다. 특히 상대적으로 생산성 수렴 현상을 보이는 ICT-Producing 부문을 중심으로 i) 기술혁신, ii) 요소 투입비효율성의 최소화, iii) 요소 투입의 질적 제고, iv) 무형자산의 경쟁력 제고 등을 통한 생산성 향상 전략을 수립해야 할 것이다. 끝으로 노동생산성 뿐만 아니라 총요소생산성 향상에 산업 정책적 목표를 둠으로써 생산성 주도형 경제성장(Productivityled economic growth)이 이루어질 수 있도록 해야 하며, 한국경제가 생산성 선도국(Leading country or frontier)이 될 수 있도록 해야 할 것이다. The Korean economy has experienced the periodical economic crisis such as the oil crisis in 1970s, the foreign exchange crisis in 1997-98, the global financial crisis in 2008-09, and the COVID-19 crisis 2020-22, so has faced with the slowed economic growth. How can we comprehend the slow-moving economic growth in the Korean economy? Is it originated from the structural attributes or the specific properties of the Korean economy? Or is it a kind of general economic conditions as similar as the other countries can also experience? Our study has uncovered that the Korean economy has definitely caught up the advanced countries in terms of labor productivity (β-convergence), and the convergence has been occurred generally among OECD countries including the Korean economy. Further the economic growth has been clearly slowed down since 1980s in the Korean economy, and more importantly the pace of productivity convergence has been weaken unceasingly. Thus it should be pointed out that it is very significant for the Korean economy to elevate the speed of convergence by improving productivity in order to offset the decline in population. More specifically we should construct some of productivity strategies through technological innovation, minimizing the inefficiency of production inputs, improvement of quality of capital and labor input, and enhancement of competitiveness of intangible assets like as R&D, Software, Intellectual property right etc. Finally, we should try to make the Korean economy as a productivity-led one in terms of not only labor productivity but also total factor productivity. Therefore we are to accomplish a leading country or frontier in succession in terms of productivity growth.

Regional Integration, Growth and Convergence

( Dirk Willem Te Velde ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2011 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.26 No.1

This paper examines empirically whether and how regional integration leads to convergence and growth amongst developing countries. Using standard growth models for nearly 100 developing countries over 1970-2004 we cannot establish robust growth effects of regional integration as such at the aggregated level of analysis even after using alternative measures of regional integration. However, because we find that trade and FDI promote growth, and because regional integration tends to increase trade and FDI, regional integration still has a positive impact on growth in its members through the effects of increased trade and investment on growth. Further, country-specific growth diagnostics do suggest that regional integration can be a binding constraint to growth as “deep” regional approaches can help to address crucial rail, road, air and energy links amongst countries (e.g. in the East African Community). Our findings also suggest that initially high levels of regional income disparities will lead to greater decreases in disparities. Whilst the level of intra-regional trade and incomes do not explain changes in income disparities, the presence of a regional Development Finance Institutions (e.g. Central American or East African development banks) with a relatively high loan exposure to GDP ratio tends to reduce regional income disparities suggesting a useful role for deeper integration in achieving regional cohesion. A one percentage point increase in exposure by DFIs leads to a drop of σ of about one percentage point. Finally, while the macro economic literature on regional integration tends to highlight only limited expected effects of African regional integration itself, our work at the firm level in three African countries (Benin, Malawi and South Africa) is indicative of significant dynamic effects of regional integration through the effects on firm level productivity in Africa. We suggest that in the future, further growth analytical work is undertaken which combines the development of methods to examine the effects of regions and measurement of the various types of regional integration.

기술 성숙도 및 의존도의 네트워크 분석을 통한유망 융합 기술 발굴 방법론

최호창,곽기영,김남규 한국지능정보시스템학회 2018 지능정보연구 Vol.24 No.1

Recently, most of the technologies have been developed in various forms through the advancement of single technology or interaction with other technologies. Particularly, these technologies have the characteristic of the convergence caused by the interaction between two or more techniques. In addition, efforts in responding to technological changes by advance are continuously increasing through forecasting promising convergence technologies that will emerge in the near future. According to this phenomenon, many researchers are attempting to perform various analyses about forecasting promising convergence technologies. A convergence technology has characteristics of various technologies according to the principle of generation. Therefore, forecasting promising convergence technologies is much more difficult than forecasting general technologies with high growth potential. Nevertheless, some achievements have been confirmed in an attempt to forecasting promising technologies using big data analysis and social network analysis. Studies of convergence technology through data analysis are actively conducted with the theme of discovering new convergence technologies and analyzing their trends. According that, information about new convergence technologies is being provided more abundantly than in the past. However, existing methods in analyzing convergence technology have some limitations. Firstly, most studies deal with convergence technology analyze data through predefined technology classifications. The technologies appearing recently tend to have characteristics of convergence and thus consist of technologies from various fields. In other words, the new convergence technologies may not belong to the defined classification. Therefore, the existing method does not properly reflect the dynamic change of the convergence phenomenon. Secondly, in order to forecast the promising convergence technologies, most of the existing analysis method use the general purpose indicators in process. This method does not fully utilize the specificity of convergence phenomenon. The new convergence technology is highly dependent on the existing technology, which is the origin of that technology. Based on that, it can grow into the independent field or disappear rapidly, according to the change of the dependent technology. In the existing analysis, the potential growth of convergence technology is judged through the traditional indicators designed from the general purpose. However, these indicators do not reflect the principle of convergence. In other words, these indicators do not reflect the characteristics of convergence technology, which brings the meaning of new technologies emerge through two or more mature technologies and grown technologies affect the creation of another technology. Thirdly, previous studies do not provide objective methods for evaluating the accuracy of models in forecasting promising convergence technologies. In the studies of convergence technology, the subject of forecasting promising technologies was relatively insufficient due to the complexity of the field. Therefore, it is difficult to find a method to evaluate the accuracy of the model that forecasting promising convergence technologies. In order to activate the field of forecasting promising convergence technology, it is important to establish a method for objectively verifying and evaluating the accuracy of the model proposed by each study. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new method for analysis of convergence technologies. First of all, through topic modeling, we derive a new technology classification in terms of text content. It reflects the dynamic change of the actual technology market, not the existing fixed classification standard. In addition, we identify the influence relationships between technologies through the topic correspondence weights of each document, and structuralize them into a network. In addition, we devise a centrality indic... 최근 다양한 분야에서 새로운 기술이 출현하고 있으며, 이들 대부분은 기존 기술들의 융합(Convergence)을통해 형성되고 있다. 또한 가까운 미래에 출현하게 될 유망한 융합 기술을 예측함으로써 변화하는 기술 지형에선제적으로 대응하기 위한 수요가 꾸준히 증가하고 있으며, 이러한 수요에 부응하여 많은 기관과 연구자들은미래 유망 융합 기술 예측을 위한 분석을 수행하고 있다. 하지만 이와 관련한 기존의 많은 연구들은 (i) 고정된기술 분류 기준을 분석에 사용함으로써 기술 분야의 동적 변화를 반영하지 못했다는 점, (ii) 예측 모형 수립 과정에서 주로 범용성 네트워크 지표를 사용함으로써 기술의 융합이라는 목적에 부합하는 고유 특성을 활용하지못했다는 점, 그리고 (iii) 유망 분야 예측 모형의 정확성 평가를 위한 객관적 방법을 제시하지 못했다는 점 등에서 한계를 갖고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 (i) 토픽 모델링을 통해 기존의 고정된 분류 기준이 아닌 실제 기술시장의 동적 변화에 따른 새로운 기술군을 도출하고, (ii) 기술 성숙도 및 기술군 간 의존 관계에 따라 각 기술군의 융합적 특성을 반영하는 잠재 성장 중심성(Potential Growth Centrality) 지표를 산출하였으며, (iii) 잠재 성장 중심성에 근거하여 예측한 유망 기술의 성숙도 증가량을 시기별로 측정하여 예측 모형의 정확도를 평가하는방안을 제시한다. 이와 더불어 제안 방법론의 성능 및 실무 적용 가능성의 평가를 위해 특허 문서 13, 477건에대한 실험을 수행하였으며, 실험 결과 제안한 잠재 성장 중심성에 따른 예측 모형이 단순히 현재 활용되는 영향도 기반의 예측 모형에 비해 최대 약 2.88배 높은 예측 정확도를 보임을 확인하였다.

Nonlinear Effect of Information and Communication Technology on Economic Growth Convergence : the Case of 36 Asian Countries

HaMin Hong,Jeongseok Song 한국제도경제학회 2020 제도와 경제 Vol.14 No.1

지난 수 십년 동안 정보통신 기술은 다양한 산업에서의 생산성을 제고하였다. 본 논문은 1990년부터 2017년 기간에 걸친 아시아 36개국의 패널 자료를 이용하여, 정보 통신기술을 반영한 경제성장 수렴에 대한 실증분석을 실시한다. 정보통신기술은 그 자체로써 생산성 향상의 직접적 요인으로 작용하는 동시에 기술전파 요인으로써 간접 적으로 생산성 향상에 기여한다. 특히 기술전파 요인이라는 차원에서, 정보통신기술이 기술확산의 원천으로 작용한다는 점에 대한 많은 관심이 필요하다. 그러나 기술확산에 대한 기존의 많은 연구에도 불구하고, 경제성장 수렴에 대한 논의에 있어서 정보통신 기술을 기술확산에 접목한 이론적 연구는 많지 않다. 이러한 선행연구의 미비한 부분 에 착안하여, 본 연구는 정보통신기술과 경제성장률 간의 관계를 살펴보는 데 있어서 비선형 함수 구조를 설정한다. 본 논문은 준모수적 추정 방법의 일종인 부분선형모형 을 이용하여 정보통신기술과 경제성장수렴의 관계를 살펴보고자 한다. 또한, 본 논문 은 부분선형모형의 추정결과와 고정효과모형의 추정결과를 비교한다. 본 연구의 실중 분석 결과에 따르면 정보통신기술 요인을 비선형함수에 포함시켜 이를 통제할 경우 회귀분석모형의 종속변수인 경제성장률의 관측주기가 낮아짐에 따라 1인당 GDP 설명 변수의 회귀분석계수 추정값은 그 절대값이 증가한다. 또한, 부분선형모형 추정으로부 터 도출된 1인당 GDP 설명변수의 회귀분석계수 추정값은 고정효과모형 추정 결과에 비해 그 값이 전반적으로 더 크다는 결과를 발견한다. 이러한 분석결과는 정보통신기 술 변수의 비선형 특성을 고려할 때 경제성장수렴 현상을 보다 더 잘 이해할 수 있다는 시사점을 제공한다. 또한 본 논문은 부분선형모형의 모형설정이 적합한 지 여부를 검정하며, 그 검정결과로부터 정보통신기술을 비선형모형으로 설정하는 것이, 선형모 형으로 설정하는 것에 비해 더 적합함을 발견하였다. 또한, 본 논문은 비선형모형을 곡선 형태로 추정할 경우 그 형태가 역 U자임을 발견한다. 이러한 비선형함수의 형태는 정보통신기술이 경제성장에 기여하는데 있어서, 최적값이 존재함을 암시한다. 이상 의 결과들을 종합할 때 본 연구는 비선형 모형이 정보통신기술과 경제성장의 관계를 파악하는데 있어서 유용하다는 시사점을 제공한다. Over the past decades, many economies observed that the development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has increased productivity in various industries. This paper empirically examines an economic growth convergence under the presence of the ICT by using panel data for 36 Asian countries from 1990 to 2017. The ICT can directly work as a driving force for productivity and indirectly as a technology propagator. As a technology propagator, the ICT deserves more attention as a source of technology diffusion. Despite many existing studies on the diffusion, theoretical studies have not yet incorporated the ICT into the diffusion issue in discussing the growth convergence. Responding to the unfilled gap in the literature, we impose a nonlinear functional form on the relation between the ICT and economic growth rate. In this paper, we employ a semi-parametric partially linear model (PLM) to relate the ICT elements to the growth convergence. In this paper, we compare fixed-effect results to the PLM results. Our results show that, controlling the ICT nonlinearly, the absolute size of the estimates for the GDP per capita increases as the frequency of growth rates becomes lower. We also find that, for the GDP per capita, the PLM estimates’ absolute values are greater relative to the fixed-effect results for all the frequencies. Our findings imply that considering nonlinearity of the ICT variable enhances understanding of economic growth convergence. We also perform the specification-fit test for PLM estimation and find that the nonlinear specification of the ICT variable is suitable. Further, we observe that the fitted curves of nonlinear functions are hump-shaped for all the frequencies. Then, it is implied that there can exist optimal level of the ICT for its contribution to the economic growth. In sum, all the results suggest that nonlinear modeling is a suitable empirical strategy for the relationship between the ICT and economic growth.

Economic Growth : Growth Regression

Growth Regression 한국재정학회(구 한국재정·공공경제학회) 2008 한국재정학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2008 No.2

Barro & Sala-i-Martin(2004) analyze the empirical determinants of growth. They use an cross-section empirical framework that relates the growth rate to two kinds of variables, that is, initial levels of steady-state variables(physical capital, human capital). And control variables(the ratio of the domestic investment to GDP, social infrastructure). Recent literatures suggest that panel-based model produces more efficient and consistent estimator than that of OLS or pooled regression model. This paper carries their analysis one step further and asks whether changes in the growth rate between the 1940s and the 2000s can be explained by this framework, using panel data consisted of G-5 countries. Following the implication of semi-endogeneous growth theory, we regress output growth on a constant, one year lagged output(initial income), and the determinants of steady-state income, (investment rate, population growth etc.) and the quadratic function of R&D intensity. The regression suggests more faster significant convergence. The coefficients for the determinants of steady-state income, especially for the quadratic function of R&D intensity is significant and of the expected sign.

Real Convergence and European Integration:

Yoo-Duk Kang 대외경제정책연구원 2011 Working Papers Vol.2011 No.1

EU는 출범 초기부터 역내무역 자유화와 더불어 각 회원국 간 소득수준 수렴(real convergence)을 목표로 하였다. 경제통합 과정에서 상당한 수준의 지역간 수렴이 이루어졌음이 여러 연구를 통해 확인된 바 있으나, 수렴현상은 국가별로 상이하게 나타났다. 경제적 수렴에 관한 연구는 2000년대 중반 동유럽 국가들이 대거 EU에 가입하면서 그 중요성이 높아지고 있다. 본 연구는 1995~2007년 사이 EU 지역을 1,300여개 지역(NUTS-3단위)으로 분류한 후 베타수렴(β-convergence)과 시그마수렴(δ-convergence)으로 구분하여 수렴현상을 파악한다. 또한 성장률에 대한 회귀분석을 통해 어떤 요인들이 경제적 수렴에 가장 크게작용하였는지를 살펴본다. 조사결과 국가 간에는 소득수준 수렴현상이 나타났으나, 한국가 내에서는 소득수준의 상이성(divergence)이 확대되는 것으로 나타났으며, 동유럽국가의 경우 이러한 현상이 더욱 두드러지게 나타났다. 회귀분석 결과 한 국가 내에서 경제적 비중이 높은 지역일수록 높은 성장률을 기록한 것으로 나타났으며, 이러한 현상은 동유럽 국가에서 더 확연하게 나타났다. 결국 EU 전체에서 국가간, 지역간 소득수준 수렴현상이 나타난 것은 수도권을 비롯하여 경제활동이 집중된 지역이 높은 성장을 거둠으로써 나타난 현상이며, 낙후지역은 여전히 낮은 소득수준에 머물고 있는것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 EU에 국한된 연구이나, 동아시아 통합은 물론 국내 FTA 정책에도 시사하는 바가 크다. FTA 등을 통해 무역자유화를 이룰 경우 후생증가 효과를 기대할 수 있으나, 수도권 및 공업지역 등 일부 지역이 수혜를 볼 것으로 예상되며, 낙후지역은 후생증가 효과로부터 소외될 가능성이 높다. 따라서 무역자유화에 기반을 둔 지역통합을 추진할 경우, 이와 별도로 낙후지역 발전방안에 대한 논의가 있어야 할 것으로 보인다. This paper examines income convergence across Europe during the period 1995~2007 where the last enlargement of the EU and the process of economic integration was in active progress. It is generally accepted that the enlargement of the EU has been followed by the convergence of late comers toward the European average. The author focuses on only the cross-county convergence, but also within-country convergence. He concluded that the remarkable cross-country convergence has tended toward within-country divergence, particularly for Central and Eastern European Countries during the enlargement period. Economic weights of the respective regions in national economies seem to be critical in explaining within-country divergence. High income regions, mostly capital cities, in CEECs are characterized particularly by higher growth rates. It is highly probable that the economic integration has favored those well-off regions at the expense of regions remote from their capitals. This tentative conclusion provides important policy implications not only for European integration, but also for economic integration in other regions, where countries have been seeking diverse regional trade agreements (RTA). Economic integration is largely recognized as a policy option to boost economic growth through trade and investment channels, but economic benefits are likely to be concentrated in certain favored regions, mostly capital regions or industrial areas which have already been enjoying high income levels. Thus, it will be increasingly necessary to develop a mechanism to channel economic benefits to backward regions for within-country convergence.

Regional Integration and Real Convergence: Evidence from MENA Countries

( Nicolas Peridy ),( Corinne Bagoulla ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2012 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.27 No.1

This article analyses and explains the real convergence process in MENA countries over the past 50 years. It provides a threefold contribution. Firstly, given the recent increasing attention paid to the Euro-Mediterranean area, it focuses on the convergence of MENA countries towards the EU per capita income. Second, it provides an econometric modelling of the determinants of convergence. Finally, it is based on a wide set of convergence indicators applied to various measures of per capita income as well as the Human Development Index (HDI). Results show that despite a lack of s-convergence for the MENA region taken as a whole, the convergence hypothesis is accepted using the g and β-convergence tests, especially for Tunisia, Egypt, Turkey and Morocco. However, there is evidence of divergence for Jordan and Algeria. It is also shown that the convergence process strongly depends on education, R&D, transport and infrastructure as well as public investment. By contrast, there is no direct impact of the regional integration process with the EU, although the EIB loans positively contribute to the convergence process. Finally, trade specialization and firm agglomeration have been detrimental to convergence of MENA countries.

The Impact of Financial Development on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Transitional Economies

Phuc Tran NGUYEN,Trinh Tuyet Thi PHAM 한국유통과학회 2021 The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Busine Vol.8 No.11

This article examines the role of financial development in economic growth in a number of transitional economies where the financial systems were newly established or reformed only in the early 1990s to facilitate their transition from centrally planned economies to marketbased ones. Based on a dataset collected from 29 transitional economies and 5 Asian developing economies covering the period 1990–2020, an empirical endogenous growth model is specified and estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM). Three measures of financial development are used to investigate the relative role of the banking system and stock exchange market in the process of transition and growth. The results show that the three measures of financial development are crucial determinants of economic growth in transitional economies but the link seems to be in an inverted U-shape. This suggests the existence of thresholds for different channels of the financial sector to expand to positively influence growth. When becoming too large relative to the size of the economy, the financial system would have become a factor not conducive to growth. The growth convergence hypothesis is also confirmed and the impacts of other growth determinants are overall consistent with the extant literature.