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Foreign Direct Investment and Productivity Spillovers: the Experience of ASEAN Countries
( Nicolas Peridy ),( Nathapornpan Piyaareekul Uttama ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2010 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.25 No.2
This paper aims at investigating the productivity spillover effects of FDI inflows to ASEAN countries. A first contribution is related to the development of an original theoretical model of complex multinational firms which simultaneously explores backward and forward linkages due to FDI. As a second contribution, the significance of vertical productivity spillovers in ASEAN countries is tested empirically. For that purpose, and given the lack of data at firm level, the causal relationship between FDI and productivity is investigated by using countryspecific data. Several alternative causality tests are implemented, including both direct and indirect approaches. The main results give strong evidence that FDI causes productivity growth in ASEAN countries. These results correlate the prediction of the theoretical model, which provide a strong support for the relationship between FDI and productivity spillovers.
Regional Integration and Real Convergence: Evidence from MENA Countries
( Nicolas Peridy ),( Corinne Bagoulla ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2012 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.27 No.1
This article analyses and explains the real convergence process in MENA countries over the past 50 years. It provides a threefold contribution. Firstly, given the recent increasing attention paid to the Euro-Mediterranean area, it focuses on the convergence of MENA countries towards the EU per capita income. Second, it provides an econometric modelling of the determinants of convergence. Finally, it is based on a wide set of convergence indicators applied to various measures of per capita income as well as the Human Development Index (HDI). Results show that despite a lack of s-convergence for the MENA region taken as a whole, the convergence hypothesis is accepted using the g and β-convergence tests, especially for Tunisia, Egypt, Turkey and Morocco. However, there is evidence of divergence for Jordan and Algeria. It is also shown that the convergence process strongly depends on education, R&D, transport and infrastructure as well as public investment. By contrast, there is no direct impact of the regional integration process with the EU, although the EIB loans positively contribute to the convergence process. Finally, trade specialization and firm agglomeration have been detrimental to convergence of MENA countries.
Middle East and North African Integration: through the lens of Non-Tariff Measures
( Nicolas Peridy ),( Ahmed Ghoneim ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2013 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.28 No.4
Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) have recently become a central issue for economists and policy makers. Based on a new database developed by the World Bank on five Middle East and North African(MENA) countries at a very detailed product level, this article provides calculations of the average tariff equivalents (AVEs) of NTMs in these countries. A second contribution is the development of an original empirical model with detailed trade costs. This makes it possible to provide the assessment of these NTMs impacts as well as other trade costs ones on the trade of goods in these countries. This analysis is also extended to the trade of 15 service sectors, through the use of the updated GTAP database. Results show that NTMs are very significant in the selected MENA countries. The model also shows that NTMs are significantly trade reducing in almost all MENA countries, especially Sanitary and Phytosanitary(SPS) measures. NTMs in services are also significantly trade reducing, especially in Maghreb countries. The study shows that not all NTMs must necessarily been reduced or removed, but the ones which are particular trade-reducing must be paid particular attention. In addition, the governments should also progress toward either mutual recognition, or the adoption of international standards especially in relation to technical standards.
Nicolas Peridy,Javad Abedini 한국국제경제학회 2014 International Economic Journal Vol.28 No.2
This article aims to provide new insights into trade effects of the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA), using an imperfect competition framework. The model combines the new gravity model approach with supply-demand export equations in imperfect competition. In this regard, the role of scale economies, product varieties and expectations is explored. Facing the lack of international data on scale economies, we also develop a translog production system which makes it possible to obtain reliable estimates of this factor. For a more rigorous treatment of the endogeneity problem in the model, we make use of an instrumental GMM panel estimator. Results show limited effects of GAFTA on regional trade in imperfect competition, due to market segmentation and the predominance of inter-industry trade. In addition, the fitted intra-GAFTA trade values are far beyond the actual ones. This suggests that GAFTA countries could benefit from deeper regional trade integration. In this regard, the Arab Spring creates new opportunities to reinforce trade integration as a means of grasping additional trade gains in this area.
( Chris Milner ),( Nicolas Peridy ),( Yvan Decreux ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2010 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.25 No.4
The present study proposes an updated and extended quantitative assessment of the EU-South Korea FTA, through a new version of MIRAGE CGE model. Several distinctive contributions are offered. Firstly, the quantitative assessment takes into account non-tariff barriers (NTBs) as well as tariffs. Second, it considers trade liberalization of goods, services as well as FDI (establishment). A third contribution is that simulations of policy changes are closely aligned with the actual agreement for each industry and service category. Finally, this article relies on recent techniques for calculating the tariff equivalents of NTBs following Kee et al. (2009). The main findings show that the EU may increase trade performance in several industries (chemicals, machinery, other manufactured and food products) as well as in specific services to a lesser extent (business, insurance and transport services ). On the other hand, Korea takes advantage of the agreement for specific manufactured products (textiles, leather/clothing, cars and other transport equipment).
The Greater Arab Free Trade Area(GAFTA): an Estimation of Its Trade Effects
( Javad Abedini ),( Nicolas Peridy ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2008 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.23 No.4
In 1997, fourteen Arab countries concluded an agreement, aimed at achieving the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA) by 1.1.2007 at the latest. This paper provides a first ex-post appraisal of the GAFTA agreement`s trade effects. Based on new theoretical developments of the gravity equation, we estimate a panel data model which covers trade within the GAFTA area as well as with 35 other reference countries, over the period 1988-2005. Several estimators are presented, especially transformed fixed-effects, Hausman and Taylor as well as a GMM dynamic estimator. As a main finding, the calculation of gross trade creation shows that regional trade has increased by 20% since GAFTA has been implemented.