http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
The Impact of the Exchange Rate Regime on Exports: Evidence from the European Monetary System
( Stilianos Fountas ),( Kyriacos Aristotelous ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2005 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.20 No.3
We employ the econometric techniques of multivariate cointegration and error-correction models to investigate the impact of the creation of the European Monetary System (EMS) on the volume of intra-European Union (EU) exports for eight EU countries. We find that for Ireland the EMS boosted the volume of intra-EU exports, whereas for Belgium, Denmark, and Germany, the EMS led to a decline in intra-EU exports. In the rest of the countries, there has not been a significant effect. Another important result is that, more often than not, the short-run impact of exchange rate volatility on the volume of intra-EU exports is insignificant.
The EU`s Strategy for Trans-Pacific Partnership
( Patrick Messerlin ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2013 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.28 No.2
This paper attempts to assess the discriminatory impact that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement could have on the EU economy. It gives robust evidence that the discriminatory impact will be dramatic if the TPP is successful in reducing or abolishing “behind the border” barriers among member countries. This situation leaves the EU with only two options. First option consists in doing nothing. It is costly from the beginning, as East Asian economies are already quite large. More importantly, the cost of this option will keep rising because EU`s weight will decline whereas the East Asian weight will keep rising. In such a context, threatening to close the EU markets as a leverage to open non-EU markets damages credibility. The second option consists in insuring the EU against a successful TPP by reaching a preferential trade agreement (PTA) with Japan, and then with Taiwan. Concluding PTAs with Japan and Taiwan is not only an insurance policy against the TPP, but it also allows the EU to boost the development of Europe, East Asia, and global trade.
Exchange Rate Devaluation and Reshuffling of Global Jobs
( Luca Macedoni ),( Fabio Sdogati ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2013 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.28 No.2
Current debates presume that devaluation of one country`s currency may transfer the production of imported intermediate goods to the devaluating country. This paper argues that in a global production network involving more than two countries in the production of fragments, this presumption may not hold. With a simple Ricardian model of fragmentation, this paper shows that the production of fragments can be transferred only if countries have close comparative advantage. Using data from the World Input Output Database, our model is found to be empirically supported.
What could happen in a Monetary Union? The Perspective of Informational Asymmetry
( Cornel Oros ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2012 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.27 No.4
The subsidiarity principle governing the collection of statistical data in a monetary union may result in asymmetrical information. The national governments may be tempted to distort their economic and financial data communicated to the union`s central bank in order to influence its monetary policy decisions. We base our analysis on a static Keynesian model in a closed monetary union and we prove that the governments` incentives to modify their private information depend mainly on the nature of the economic shocks affecting the union members, on the degree of monetary activism, and on the extent of the union`s structural heterogeneity. We analyse the institutional mechanisms that could be used to discipline the governments and encourage them to communicate real information. An incentive contract of the "principal-agent" type or a variable geometry fiscal coordination represent two institutional solutions that could help to create a revealing equilibrium within a monetary union.
Is Price Dynamics Homogeneous Across Eurozone Countries?
( David Guerreiro ),( Marc Joets ),( Valerie Mignon ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2012 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.27 No.4
The aim of this paper is to investigate whether price dynamics is homogeneous across the Eurozone countries. Relying on monthly data over the January 1970~July 2011 period, we test for the absolute purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis through the implementation of second and third-generation panel unit root and cointegration tests. Our results show that price dynamics are heterogeneous depending on both the time period and the considered group of countries. More specifically, while PPP is validated for the core Economic Monetary Union (EMU) countries, this hypothesis does not hold for Northern peripheral economies. Turning to the Southern countries, PPP is observed only before the launch of the euro.
Economic Integration in the Indian Subcontinent: A Study of Macroeconomic Interdependence
( T K Jayaraman ),( Chee Keong Choong ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2012 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.27 No.4
The South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) marked its Silver Jubilee in 2010. The SAARC`s charter, which was signed by Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka in 1985, has many similarities to the founding charters of similar regional associations signed elsewhere. While other regional associations have made substantial progress, SAARC has yet to produce notable results. In the context of growing global economic interdependence, it is of interest to assess how far economic growth in each of the SAARC economies has influenced growth in other member countries. Adopting a vector autoregression (VAR) methodology, this paper investigates macroeconomic interdependence in the South Asian region with a view to evaluating its readiness to forge ahead with its integration efforts. The findings of the study reveal that India has been influencing economic growth in the region, as its output variability has been affecting outputs in other member countries. If SAARC has to become successful as a regional bloc, India as the biggest gainer from trade and investment relationships should take some bold steps, which would represent some readiness to part with some of the gains derived by way of trade surpluses.
Testing the Asset-seeking Hypothesis: through the Investments of Chinese and Indian Firms in Europe
( He Yong ),( Zhou Hong ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2012 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.27 No.4
We use the investments of Chinese and Indian MNCs in Europe to test the hypothesis that the main motivation of the Southern MNCs for investing in the Northern countries is asset- or technology- seeking. After showing that the previous work has not adequately tested this hypothesis due to its use of country-level FDI flow data, we conduct our tests with count data models tests. The results reveal that this motivation for Chinese MNCs is strong, whereas Indian MNCs, due to their excessive concentration in the UK and in software sector, have a weaker asset-seeking motivation than Chinese MNCs.
The European Fiscal Compact: A Counterfactual Assessment
( Jerome Creel ),( Paul Hubert ),( Francesco Saracen ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2012 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.27 No.4
Faced with the global financial crisis and an increasingly worrisome sovereign-debt crisis, the Eurozone countries are rethinking their fiscal governance. This paper discusses the different reforms and subsequent fiscal rules which have emerged since 2011. It assesses the impact of fiscal rules on the output gap and inflation rate of three representative countries of the Eurozone. By means of a counterfactual, the rules based upon their macroeconomic outcomes are ranked. The new debt reduction rule would certainly lead to lower debt levels, hence to larger fiscal margins for maneuver in the future but, in steep contrast with the golden rule of public finance, it would be very costly to implement as the requirement to enforce a substantial consolidation in the short run would be considerably higher than that of a golden rule and would worsen the output gap and inflation rate. The cap on the cyclically adjusted deficit also leads to unfavorable outcomes whereas the Maastricht status quo, limiting overall public deficit, would be a "second best" behind the golden rule of public finance.
Quality Competition Versus Price Competition Goods: An Empirical Classification
( Richard E. Baldwin ),( Tadashi Ito ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2011 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.26 No.1
Based on theoretical distinctions suggested by the heterogeneous firms trade model and the quality heterogeneous firms trade model, we classify exports at the HS 6-digit level as being characterised by either quality or price competition. We find a high proportions of quality-competition goods for the major EU countries and lower proportions for Canada, Australia and China. However, the overlap of these quality-competition goods is not large which suggests that the HS-6 digit data is too aggregate; firm-level data may be needed. Our findings suggest that dumping investigations must pay careful attention to the exact definition of products, and the study of technological gaps across nations by analysing composition of their export basket (Hausman, Huang and Rodrik 2007) should be interpreted with caution.