헤지펀드와 시스템리스크에 관한 고찰 —최근 미국의 사례를 중심으로—

배준석 한국금융법학회 2008 金融法硏究 Vol.5 No.2

Hedge funds are in the center of the American sub-prime mortgage crisis that led to the world’s financial crisis. These are funds that have the potential to significantly disrupt financial markets because they are managed outside regulation. Hedge funds have a high risk of default since they use greatly speculative and highly-leveraged investment strategies. If these go into default, the related counterparties are in danger of liquidity deficiency. A hedge fund’s default can set off a chain reaction of bankruptcies of counterparties, paralyzing the entire financial system. This is called systemic risk, and it can lead to crisis in the entire market. One policy issue regarding hedge funds is investor protection. Investor protection is needed because of the high risk-high return strategies of hedge funds. Regulation is essential for investor protection, but it also obstructs the development of the hedge fund industry. Investors in hedge funds consist of institutional investors and a small number of individuals who invest huge amounts of money. These investors have the ability to analyze and evaluate the characteristics and risks of their investments. So, compared to other funds, hedge funds have a lower need for investor protection. Another policy issue, which is more significant with regard to hedge funds, is systemic risk prevention. Financial supervisory authorities may avert systemic risks by monitoring the management of hedge funds. They can also impose reporting duties on counterparties when hedge funds are in danger of default. It is desirable that supervisory authorities prevent crises well in advance. However, these authorities have limited tools for systemic risk prevention since hedge funds are basically outside regulation. Ultimately, a central bank’s liquidity provision can protect against systemic risks. When liquidity problems in financial markets are serious, the central bank as lender of last resort can provide the solution, since it has the right to issue the country’s money. Yet central banks hesitate to serve as lender of last resort. The fear is for the moral hazard of market participants if the banks frequently take the role of lender of last resort. If market participants expect the central bank to solve problems that result from their own lax management, it would be an obstacle to the sound management of financial institutions. Nevertheless, the Bank of Korea, Korea’s central bank, should prepare to play the role of lender of last resort. The Korean government is going to permit hedge funds to be established in Korea. This requires preparation of legal supports such as the ability of the central bank to access a wide range of information. As a comparison, the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. central bank, has played a major role in systemic risk prevention since the sub-prime mortgage crisis. Looking at American examples, including the Fed policies, provides useful suggestions for anticipating the introduction of hedge funds to the Bank of Korea and the Korean economy. Hedge funds are in the center of the American sub-prime mortgage crisis that led to the world’s financial crisis. These are funds that have the potential to significantly disrupt financial markets because they are managed outside regulation. Hedge funds have a high risk of default since they use greatly speculative and highly-leveraged investment strategies. If these go into default, the related counterparties are in danger of liquidity deficiency. A hedge fund’s default can set off a chain reaction of bankruptcies of counterparties, paralyzing the entire financial system. This is called systemic risk, and it can lead to crisis in the entire market. One policy issue regarding hedge funds is investor protection. Investor protection is needed because of the high risk-high return strategies of hedge funds. Regulation is essential for investor protection, but it also obstructs the development of the hedge fund industry. Investors in hedge funds consist of institutional investors and a small number of individuals who invest huge amounts of money. These investors have the ability to analyze and evaluate the characteristics and risks of their investments. So, compared to other funds, hedge funds have a lower need for investor protection. Another policy issue, which is more significant with regard to hedge funds, is systemic risk prevention. Financial supervisory authorities may avert systemic risks by monitoring the management of hedge funds. They can also impose reporting duties on counterparties when hedge funds are in danger of default. It is desirable that supervisory authorities prevent crises well in advance. However, these authorities have limited tools for systemic risk prevention since hedge funds are basically outside regulation. Ultimately, a central bank’s liquidity provision can protect against systemic risks. When liquidity problems in financial markets are serious, the central bank as lender of last resort can provide the solution, since it has the right to issue the country’s money. Yet central banks hesitate to serve as lender of last resort. The fear is for the moral hazard of market participants if the banks frequently take the role of lender of last resort. If market participants expect the central bank to solve problems that result from their own lax management, it would be an obstacle to the sound management of financial institutions. Nevertheless, the Bank of Korea, Korea’s central bank, should prepare to play the role of lender of last resort. The Korean government is going to permit hedge funds to be established in Korea. This requires preparation of legal supports such as the ability of the central bank to access a wide range of information. As a comparison, the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. central bank, has played a major role in systemic risk prevention since the sub-prime mortgage crisis. Looking at American examples, including the Fed policies, provides useful suggestions for anticipating the introduction of hedge funds to the Bank of Korea and the Korean economy.

가계대출, 연체율, 그리고 시스템적 리스크

이준서(June Suh Yi),정호성(Ho Sung Jung) 한국경영학회 2013 經營學硏究 Vol.42 No.6

This study examines whether the growth of household loans being issued in Korea actually has a negative effect on overall financial system. To this end, the paper investigates that household loans are associated with systemic risk known as core of macro-prudential policy. Also the paper explores dynamic relationships between systemic risk and delinquency rate, more substantial insolvent index. We find that systemic risk rises subsequent to the growth of household loans. In particular, systemic risk is related more to household loans from non-banks than to those from banks, and more to unsecured loans than to secured loans. The expansion of household loans on cards, capitals, credit unions, and mutual saving banks among non-bank financial institutions are positively associated with systemic risk increases. In terms of time lag between variables, it is observed that the increase of systemic risk is followed by four months of entire household loans, by four months of card loans, by two months of credit union/mutual saving banks loans, and by one month of capital loans. We also discover that delinquency rate rises subsequent to systemic risk increases. Most of delinquency rates such as mortgage, credit, and card are followed by three months of systemic risk increases. Consequently, it is inferred that systemic risk increase is subsequent to household loans growth and is followed by delinquency rate in a sequential relationship among household loans, delinquency rate, and systemic risk. This study provides various substantial policy implications for the design of an early warning system and macro-prudential policy. The authorities can reduce the risk through an adjustment of consumer credit rating and a control of loan-to-value ratio at that point where systemic risk increases by the expansion of household loans. The authorities also perform macro-prudential policy in a timely manner with respect to non-bank financial institutions by which systemic risk is affected.

Systemic Leverage and Homogeneity : Assessing Multifaceted Amplifying Mechanism of Systemic Risk

Myeong Hyeon Kim,Baeho Kim 한국재무학회 2015 한국재무학회 학술대회 Vol.2015 No.11

This paper examines the amplifying mechanism of systemic risk propagation within a nonlinear framework. We focus on the hidden leverage-induced asset value dynamics in the financial markets, intertwined with balance-sheet components of the banking system. We propose a systemic leverage index by estimating smooth transition regression models based on the intrinsic element of the financial system, off-balance-sheet transaction, and cross-border activities of the Korean commercial banking system. We find strong evidence that the amplification is more pronounced with the cross-sectional homogeneity in managing systemic leverage as a whole. This observation provides the important policy-oriented implication that an individual bank's systemic importance can be gauged by its marginal contribution to system- wide homogeneity.

안전중시 시스템에서 DSM 기반 인터페이스 설계를 통한 시스템 오류 감축에 관한 연구

정호전,이재천 대한안전경영과학회 2015 대한안전경영과학회지 Vol.17 No.1

The demand from customers on better products and systems seems to be ever increasing. To meet the demand, the systems are becoming more and more complicated in terms of both scale and functionality, thereby requiring enormous effort in the development. One bright spot of this trend is that such effort has been the driving forces of the remarkable advancement in modern systems development. On the other hand, safety issues appear to be critical in many large-scale systems such as transportation and weapon systems including high-speed trains, airplanes, ships, missiles/rockets launchers, and so on. Such systems turn out to be prone to a variety of faults and thus the resultant failure can cause disastrous accidents. For the reason, they can be referred to as safety-critical systems. The systems failure can be attributed to either random or systemic factors (or sometimes both). The objective of this paper is on how to reduce potential systemic failure in safety critical systems. To do so, a proper system design is pursued to minimize the risk of systemic failure. A focus is placed on the fact that complex systems have a lot of complicated interfaces among the system elements. To effectively handle the sources of hazards at the complicated interfaces and resultant failure, a method is developed by utilizing a design structure matrix. As a case study, the developed method is applied in the design of train control systems.

체계론적 상담: 가계도분석과 가족세우기를 중심으로

이남옥,문용갑,김지혜 한국상담학회 2016 상담학연구 사례 및 실제 Vol.1 No.1

Systemic therapy refers to a specialized branch of psychotherapy that considers interpersonal relationships and the systemic interrelationships within a social system in the diagnosis and the treatment of psychological problems and interpersonal conflicts. In this article we introduce basic elements of systemic therapy and describe the systemic therapy process of a depressive female patient with a special focus on multi-dimensional genographic analysis and family constellations, which make it possible to identify biographical patterns and behaviors and to change them if necessary. This case study also shows that it is necessary to overview of her family relationships and patterns and to consider the previously unrecognized systemic dynamic that spans multiple generations in the given family. Family constellations uncover the hidden dynamics of her family or relationship in an experiential way, so that existing energy can be observed and changed, and undue stress can be released or reduced in the system. 체계론적 상담은 내담자의 문제와 함께 그의 가족체계 안에서 가족구성원 간 관계의 문제를 해결하는 치료접근법이다. 체계론적 상담은 우선적으로 체계를 구성하는 요소(내담자)의 행동을 그 요소의 고유 특성이 아니라 그 요소와 다른 요소들과의 관계, 그 요소와 체계 환경과의 관계로 설명하는 이른바 체계론적 사고(systemic thinking)를 전제로 한다. 본 논문에서는 체계론적 상담의 이론적 핵심 요소들을 간략히 개괄하고 체계론적 상담의 대표적인 개입기법인 가계도분석과 가족세우기를 소개한다. 이어서 우울증 여성을 대상으로 한 상담사례를 통해 이들 기법의 실제적 활용방법과 그 효과를 제시함으로써 국내 체계론적 상담 발전을 위한 계기로 삼고자 한다.

체계기능언어학(Systemic Functional Linguistics) 담화분석과 신약성경해석 언어학적

김두석(Doosuk Kim) 한국복음주의신약학회 2023 신약연구 Vol.22 No.2

본 논문의 목적은 체계기능언어학의 담화분석 방식이 가지는 신약성경 본문 해석의 유용성을 고찰하는 것이다. 주전 5세기에 인도 언어학자 파니니(Panini)가 언어학의 기초를 놓은 뒤 현대에 이르기까지 언어학적 해석방식은 텍스트의 의미를 고찰하는 중요한 방식으로 적용되어 왔다. 그러나 성경해석에서는 상대적으로 많은 관심을 받지 못하고 있다. 성경해석에 비평적 방식이 도입된 이후 여러 방법론들이 활발하게 논의되고 있다는 점을 감안할 때 이것은 기이한 현상이다. 따라서 본 논문은 언어학적 해석방식인 담화분석의 일반적 개념과 체계기능언어학의 담화분석 방식을 소개한 후, 로마서 14:1-15:6에 적용하는 사례연구를 제공한다. 이를 통해 본 논문은 다음과 같이 제안한다. 첫째, 체계기능언어학의 담화분석은 해석자의 주관적이고 직관적인 인식에 의한 해석의 자의성을 최소화하고, 언어가 표현하는 세계 자체에 관심을 가지며, 데이터와 의미론의 시스템 아래에서 담화를 해석한다. 둘째, 체계기능언어학의 담화분석 방식은 언어의 각 요소가 본문 안에서 다른 요소들과 함께 통합적으로 창출하는 의미에 집중한다. 셋째, 체계기능언어학의 담화분석은 문법의 사용과 기능, 구조와 문맥, 그리고 언어와 상황적 배경과의 관계 속에서 의미를 결정한다. 따라서 체계기능언어학의 담화분석은 언어학적 이론과 실제를 가장 잘 반영하고 있으며, 구조분석에 대한 구체적인 틀을 제공함으로 전체 메시지를 파악하는데 유용하다는 측면에서 성경본문 해석에 큰 기여를 할 수 있는 방법이다. The purpose of this article is to investigate the efficacy of the discourse analysis of Systemic Functional Linguistics in the interpretation of the New Testament. Since the Indian linguist Panini laid the foundation of linguistics in the fifth century BC, linguistic approaches have been deemed a critical way to interpret texts. Regretfully, however, biblical scholars have paid relatively little attention to the method. Considering various modern criticisms have been applied in biblical studies, it is an odd phenomenon. This paper, therefore, provides a general definition of discourse analysis and Systemic Functional Linguistics, then applies to Rom 14:1-15:6 as a test case. Through this, the current study suggests the following. First, Systemic Functional Linguistics minimizes the arbitrariness of interpretation by readers’ subjective and intuitive understandings but pays attention to the world that the given discourse depicts and provides its meaning based on semantic system and linguistic data. Second, Systemic Functional Linguistics concerns corporate meaning that each linguistic component of discourse creates integrally with other elements. Third, Systemic Functional Linguistics suggests meaning through multi-layered relations such as language in use, context, the function of grammar, and context of situation. To conclude, Systemic Functional Linguistics discourse analysis may contribute to the biblical interpretation in that it reflects linguistic theory and practices, provides a concrete method for structural analysis, and suggests the meaning of the discourse through semantic system.

A Modern Review of the Audit System in the Chosun Dynasty - Focusing on the Audit Systemic Implications of Sambong’s Daegan Yangsa System

이종수(Lee, Jongsoo),전광섭(Jeon, Kwangsup) 호남대학교 인문사회과학연구소 2021 인문사회과학연구 Vol.64 No.1

조선 개국기 삼봉 정도전 조선경국전, 경제문감 등을 통해 통치철학의 주요한 한 축이었던 왕권과 신권의 제도적 견제책이었던 臺諫(兩司)의 견제와 균형 효과를 분석하고자 한다. 연구내용은 정도전의 통치구조와 양사제도의 구체화 측면이다. 인공지능시대의 정부권력의 주체 간 견제사례와 주요 효과, 한계, 극복방안을 찾아 현대적 시사점과 제도화 방안 필요성에 기인한다. 주요 내용은 우리나라 정치, 행정의 토대인 대통령제 절대 권력을 견제하기 위한 제도적 장치 탐색 등으로 지금까지 왜 제대로 핵심권력을 견제하기 못했으며, 그 견제 가능성을 모색하는 것도 또 다른 필요성이다. 2020년 현재 검찰, 감사원, 국회 등은 권부를 제대로 견제, 감시하고 있는가 등을 삼봉의 삼사제도 집행결과와 효과, 한계 등을 대비적으로 접근하여 현대사회적 적용방안을 제언하였다. 연구의 범위와 방법 측면의 내용상의 범위는 조선 전기 대간(兩사)제도의 집행사례 분석을 통한 특성파악이다. 시간적 범위는 조선전기에 한정하고, 내용적 범위는 통치제도 중 양사의 견제와 균형 작동 사례를 조선왕조실록의 사례 분석을 통하여 접근한다. 방법적 측면은 조선왕조실록의 양사 활동을 사헌부 탄핵, 사간원 간쟁, 시정, 서경(고신) 등을 분석하고, 결론적으로 감사원의 공수처, 검찰 등에 대한 직무와 회계감사 등과 동시에 경찰과의 수사권 조정 등이 가능하도록 조정하여 상호 견제 가능토록 감사원 제도개선 대안을 제안하였다. The article is organized as follows. The first section research questions, the purpose of study and methodology about modern review of the audit system in the Chosun dynasty: focusing on the audit systemic implications of Sambong’s daegan yangsa system. The second section deals with methods of study, literature review, previous research and theoretical background of the audit system in the Chosun dynasty: focusing on the audit systemic implications of Sambong’s daegan yangsa system. The analytical variables of a characteristic of legal thoughts of Sambong in Chosun dynasty are ganjeng, tanhek, sijung, seokyung, so forth. The third section presents analysis variables about case studies of legal minds and audit systemic implications of Sambong’s Daegan yangsa system in Chosun dynasty. For example, those are Daegan Yangsa, Sahunbu, Saganwon, modern implication, so forth. The forth section suggests research effect & limitations of the audit system in the Chosun dynasty: focusing on the audit systemic implications of Sambong’s daegan yangsa system. The last section concludes. There were some suggestion & expectation effect of the audit system in the Chosun dynasty: focusing on the audit systemic implications of Sambong’s daegan yangsa system. In Korea, the core of reform is mutual control among the Board of Audit and Inspection, Corruption Investigation Agency, Prosecution Service, Police, so forth.

문헌조사에 기반한 시스템적 사고 분석 기법의 연구 현황 및 비교

기도형 대한인간공학회 2021 大韓人間工學會誌 Vol.40 No.1

Objective: The aims of this study are to review applications of systemic accident analysis methods such as Accimap, STAMP and FRAM and to compare them. Background: The systems thinking approach to understanding socio-technical system accidents is the dominant paradigm within accident analysis research. It views accidents as the result of unexpected, uncontrolled relationships between a system's constituent parts with the requirement that systems are analyzed as whole entities, rather than considering their parts in isolation. Method: This study was based on the literature survey. The literature was searched through academic database of ScienceDirect using the key words of systemic accident analysis, Accimap, STAMP and FRAM. Results: The survey showed that thanks to its characteristics for requiring small resource and less analyzing time, Accimap was adopted in accident analyses the most frequently of the three techniques. The systemic methods have been more frequently used in the regions of Europe, North America and Oceania. STAMP provided a more effective means of applying the systems thinking approach, compared to Accimap and FRAM. While STAMP was more reliable, Accimap provided succinct graphical summary of accident. FRAM may take the longest time and require the largest amount of resource for analyzing accidents, which resulted in better way for extracting recommendations for improving systems. A previous study pointed out that in addition to practicalities, method adoption was most influenced by its usability and validity. Conclusion: Accimap have been used the most frequently, while STAMP and FRAM was easier in establishing preventive measures. Application: The results of this study can be used as useful guidelines for adopting an appropriate method for the accidents analyzed.

시스템리스크와 거시건전성

홍수완,유태환 한국산업경제학회 2011 산업경제연구 Vol.24 No.5

글로벌 금융위기 이후 본격적으로 검토되고 있는 금융규제 강화방안의 핵심은 시스템리스크를 억제함으로써 거시건전성을 제고하는 것이다. 이는 개별 금융회사의 미시건전성을 담보하기 위한 기존의 금융규제 방식이나 규제수단이 금융회사의 공통적 손실노출과 경기순응성에서 발생하는 시스템적 영향을 적절히 통제할 수 없다는 한계를 확인했기 때문이다. 또한 금융산업이 다양한 네트워크를 통해 일국 내 각 경제부문과 긴밀히 연결되어 있을 뿐만 아니라, 국제투자은행을 중심으로 금융회사 사이의 대차계약이 국경을 초월하여 빠르게 확대됨으로써 어떤 금융회사라도 글로벌 금융위기의 진원지 역할을 할 수 있다는 점이 명확해졌기 때문이다. 그럼에도 불구하고 지금까지 논의되고 있는 선진 각국의 금융규제 강화방안은 전통적 뱅킹시스템과 시스템적으로 중요한 금융기관, 그리고 일국 내 금융시장규제에 집중되어 있다는 한계를 갖고 있다. 따라서 글로벌 금융규제 강화방안 도입을 위한 논의가 먼저 고려해야 할 사항은 시스템리스크 통제 방안의 구축이 선결과제라는 점이다. 이와 관련하여 유사은행업의 활동이 전통적 뱅킹시스템과의 연계를 통해 경기순응성을 강화시키고, 시스템리스크를 확대·재생산할 수 있다는 점에 주목해야 한다. 즉 유사은행업 그 자체 및 유사은행업과 전통적 뱅킹시스템과의 연결고리에 대한 감독체계를 확립함으로써 시스템리스크를 통제할 수 있도록 하는 것이 글로벌 금융안정을 위한 시급한 과제라고 할 수 있다. Since the global financial crisis, it has been generally accepted that financial regulation reform should focus on how to enhance macropurdential soundness of financial system. It is because current microprudential policy tools are not appropriate to prevent systemic risks arising from common exposures of financial companies and procyclicality. However on-going global discussions regarding on macroprudential regulation are highly concentrated on the traditional banking system and systemically important financial institutions or markets. Thus we would like to highlight the critical meaning of controlling shadow banking for establishing a macroprudential framework. To enhance a global financial stability, it is required to internalize negative externalities caused by shadow banking system. Without financial supervision and regulation, shadow banking system reinforces procyclicality and spreads out financial stresses to the whole economy through its interconnectedness with other financial companies. Although the shadow banking system itself and the interconnectedness between shadow banks and traditional banking system should be explored further, it is crucial to capture systemic risk and regulate shadow banking system for achieving global financial stability.

System dynamics simulation of the thermal dynamic processes in nuclear power plants

Mohamed El-Sefy,Mohamed Ezzeldin,Wael El-Dakhakhni,Lydell Wiebe,Shinya Nagasaki 한국원자력학회 2019 Nuclear Engineering and Technology Vol.51 No.6

A nuclear power plant (NPP) is a highly complex system-of-systems as manifested through its internalsystems interdependence. The negative impact of such interdependence was demonstrated through the2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster. As such, there is a critical need for new strategies to overcomethe limitations of current risk assessment techniques (e.g. the use of static event and fault tree schemes),particularly through simulation of the nonlinear dynamic feedback mechanisms between the differentNPP systems/components. As the first and key step towards developing an integrated NPP dynamicprobabilistic risk assessment platform that can account for such feedback mechanisms, the current studyadopts a system dynamics simulation approach to model the thermal dynamic processes in: the reactorcore; the secondary coolant system; and the pressurized water reactor. The reactor core and secondarycoolant system parameters used to develop system dynamics models are based on those of the PaloVerde Nuclear Generating Station. These three system dynamics models are subsequently validated,using results from published work, under different system perturbations including the change in reactivity,the steam valve coefficient, the primary coolant flow, and others. Moving forward, the developedsystem dynamics models can be integrated with other interacting processes within a NPP to form thebasis of a dynamic system-level (systemic) risk assessment tool.