한국과 IPEF 국가와의 무역효율성 및 잠재력 분석

해소훤,최경숙 한국무역상무학회 2024 무역상무연구 Vol.104 No.-

본 연구는 한국과 IPEF 국가와의 무역효율성과 잠재력, 그리고 비효율성에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석함으로써 향후 IPEF 국가와의 포괄적 경제협력의 가능성과 확장성을 검토하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 2006년부터 2021년까지 IPEF 14개 참여국가의 패널 데이터를 토대로 확률적 프론티어 중력 모델(SFGM)을 적용하여 무역효율성과 잠재력을 평가하고 효율성에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석하였다. 연구 결과, 한국과 13개 IPEF 국가와의 양자 무역에서 효율성과 잠재력에 상당한 차이가 존재함이 확인되었다. 특히 IPEF국가들의 1인당 GDP, 한국과 IPEF 참여국의 인구, 그리고 한국과 IPEF 참여국 간 양국의 지리적 거리는 한국의 IPEF국가와의 양국간 무역 규모에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 정기선연결지수 및 항공운송승객수, 디지털인프라, 환율, 부패통제 및 정부효율성 요인이 무역비효율성에 유의미한 영향을 미침을 확인하였다. 이러한 연구결과를 토대로 본 연구는 비효율성 요인을 줄이고 무역효율성을 극대화함으로써 한국이 IPEF국가와의 무역을 확대하기 위한 정책적 시사점을 제시하였다. This study aims to explore the potential and scalability of comprehensive economic cooperation under the future trade order of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity(IPEF) by analyzing trade efficiency, potential, and inefficiency factors between South Korea and IPEF member countries. For this study, we applied a Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model (SFGM) to panel data from 14 IPEF member countries from 2006 to 2021. The findings reveal differences in trade efficiency and potential in bilateral trade between South Korea and 13 other IPEF member countries. Specifically, the per capita GDP of IPEF countries, the populations of South Korea and IPEF member countries, and the geographical distance between South Korea and these countries significantly affect the bilateral trade values. Additionally, factors such as the liner shipping connectivity index, air transport passenger numbers, digital infrastructure, exchange rates, control of corruption, and government efficiency were found to have a significant impact on trade inefficiency. Based on these results, this study provided policy implications to reduce inefficiency factors and maximize trade efficiency, thereby enabling South Korea to expand trade with IPEF member countries.

ESG 시대 3대 녹색무역장벽과 한국무역의 대응전략

김현정 한국무역상무학회 2023 무역상무연구 Vol.97 No.-

There have been many risks threatening the sustainable growth of Korean trade over the decades. As people say, everything is slow currently and the growth rate of world economy is expected to get lower during the coming few years. Korea is highly trade-dependent, so the current risks may be more challenging than ever and we need to manage them in sustainable manner. This study focused on three changes in trade-related mechanism which are considered going to be big huddles against Korean trade: Due Diligence Law of EU/Germany (hereafter as “Due Diligence”), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (hereafter as “CBAM”), and Renewable Energy 100% (called as “RE100”). Firstly, since the three green trade barriers are originated from the relationship between the environment and trade, they are certain to weaken the competitiveness of trade position of Korea which has a carbon-intensive industry structure and high amount of fossil fuel consumption. Secondly, those green trade barriers will have severe effects on Korean companies due to its high engagement in the global supply chain and value chain. To turn changes into chances, this study suggests that the Korean government agencies take into account both domestic industry conditions and global economic variables; all the stakeholders such as entrepreneurs, employees and customers have good understandings of the trade barriers. 본 고는 ESG 시대를 맞아 한국무역의 지속가능성을 저해할 수 있는 통상 리스크 중 RE100, 탄소국경조정세, 공급망 실사법 등 3대 녹색무역장벽의 주요 내용과 한국무역에 미칠 영향력, 그리고 대응 현황과 시사점을 전한다. 우선 환경 관련한 무역규제가 태동한 배경을 살피고 친환경무역이 환경에 미치는 긍정적 효과를 논한 선행 연구들을 통해 환경위기와 무역의 상관성에 관해 고찰했다. 그리고 세 가지 무역장벽의 핵심 내용을 점검하고 한국무역에 미칠 영향을 분석함으로써 정책ㆍ교육ㆍ통상외교 차원의 시사점을 도출했다. 본 연구가 무역의 스펙트럼에서 ESG를 바라볼 수 있는 단초가 되어, 강력한 통상 리스크로 부상한 녹색무역장벽에 대한 이해관계자 모두의 이해와 대응력을 높이고 지속가능한 한국무역을 영위하기 위한 정책 수립과 연구로 이어지기를 바란다.

전자무역분야 연구동향 분석 -무역상무연구를 중심으로-

임성철 한국무역상무학회 2022 貿易商務硏究 Vol.93 No.-

본 논문은 한국무역상무학회의 「무역상무연구」 학술지를 대상으로 전자무역분야 논문들을 메타분석 하였다. 전자무역분야를 11가지 주제로 나누어 논문들을 분석하였다. 각각의 주제분야별 논문 편수는 EDI분야 5편, 전자무역계약분야 6편, 전자무역결제분야 20편, 전자무역운송분야 19편, 전자무역보험분야 4편, 전자무역법규분야 13편, 전자무역통관분야 5편, 국제전자상거래분야 28편, 전자무역플랫폼분야 14편, 전자무역인증분야 4편, 블록체인활용분야 5편이었다. 향후 전자무역분야 논문들의 주제를 블록체인기술활용, 초국경전자무역거래, 디지털콘텐츠수출, 스마트계약, AI를 이용한 해외시장 개척 등으로 다양화한다면 「무역상무연구」 활성화에 기여할 것이다. This thesis paper targets the International Commerce & Law Review academic journal of the Korean Research Institute of International Commerce and Law and conducts meta-analysis of thesis papers in the electronic trade sector. In the paper are included analysis of the author and quotations, analysis of key words, and analysis of each key sector. In this thesis paper, the electronic trade sector was classified into 11 themes, before conducting analysis of thesis papers. The number of thesis papers referred to for each thematic sector is 5 for the EDI sector, 6 for the electronic trade contract sector, 20 for the electronic trade payment sector, 19 for the electronic trade transportation sector, 4 for the electronic trade insurance sector, 13 for the electronic trade law sector, 5 for the electronic trade customs clearance sector, 28 for the international electronic commerce sector, 14 for the electronic trade platform sector, 4 for the electronic trade certification sector, and 5 for the blockchain utilization sector. Recently, the technology is advancing greatly with each new day, and the advanced technology is being applied in trade transactions quickly. Thus, we shouldn’t limit the theme of the electronic trade sector’s thesis papers to analyzing past events. We should also write thesis papers that predict events of the near future such as thesis papers on blockchain technology, cross-border e-commerce, smart contract, etc. and help the international trade companies prepare for the newly dawning future, to increase interest on the research conducted in the International Commerce & Law sector.

「무역상무연구」 무역규범 분야 게재 논문 메타분석

박광서 한국무역상무학회 2023 貿易商務硏究 Vol.100 No.-

The International Commerce and Law Review, an academic journal of the Korean Research Institute of International Commerce and Law(KRICAL), has published 701 papers over the past 33 years in the international sales, international transportation, trade insurance, trade settlement, and commercial arbitration fields 63.3% of all papers (1,080 papers), On the other hand the trade regulations and international commerce field that this paper targets is 111 papers, accounting for 10.3% of the total, but when divided into domestic trade regulations and international trade, 32 papers and 79 papers are published respectively, which is not considered a sufficient number. In the field of trade regulation and international commerce covered by this paper, many contributors in the fields of WTO, FTA, country of origin, strategic materials, etc. submit one or two papers according to the changing trade environment. Since the rate is low, loyalty cannot be considered high. The trade regulation and international commerce field is a field that can contribute to the development of Korean trade through the establishment and implementation of government policies. Therefore it is necessary to strengthen the connectivity of industry-government-academic cooperation in research and holding seminars, and to cooperate closely with trade related organizations such as the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and the Korea International Trade Association.

리쇼어링이 세계 물류 및 무역구조에 미치는 영향에 대한 분석

김종권 한국무역상무학회 2022 貿易商務硏究 Vol.93 No.-

Due to global protectionism, the impact of COVID-19 and fluctuations in transportation costs, trade and logistics companies are increasingly interested in reshoring and nearshoring after 2020 and 2021. The reshoring is that instead of overseas production. The insourcing is being made in which the company reinforces production and carries out projects based on projects in company. As the 4th industrial revolution develops, it have been actively introduced in terms of reducing production costs and improving efficiency in reshoring and nearshoring. In recent years, the production method related to order production is in an on-demand form due to the smart factory system in other industries and all countries. The reshoring is widely deployed due to brand maintenance and immediate production systems. Through this analysis, trends and forecasts (average) of the EU's regional share in world trade were estimated. It was estimated using the sample period from 2010 to 2019. Here, the data from 2017 to 2018 are actual figures, and for 2019, referring to data from Eurofound. The trend of the share of intra-regional trade in the EU's world trade volume of the period of the next five years from 2020 to 2026 and the estimates of ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model were recorded in this analysis. Looking at the estimated values of these forecasts, the proportion of intra-regional trade in the EU's world trade volume has gradually increased, with an average of 50.63% in 2021 and 2022, an average of 51.18% in 2023 and 2024, and an average of 51.71% in 2025 and 2026. In conclusion, it is judged that Korean companies trade and logistics companies should prepare well for reshoring, which is being conducted as a new trend along with global protectionism. 세계적인 보호무역주의와 코로나19에 의한 영향과 운송비의 변동 등으로 인하여 리쇼어링 현상과 니어쇼어링에 대한 무역 및 물류업체들의 관심이 증대해 나가고 있다. 이번 분석을 통하여 EU의 세계 무역규모에서 역내 비중의 동향 및 예측치(평균) 추정하였다. 2020년부터 2026년까지 향후 5년의 기간 전후의 EU의 세계 무역규모에서 역내 무역 비중의 동향 및 ARIMA(1, 1, 0)모형의 예측치를 추정한 것이다. 이들 예측치의 추정 값들을 통하여 살펴보면 EU의 세계 무역규모에서 역내 무역 비중이 점진적으로 늘어나 2021년과 2022년은 평균 50.63%, 그리고 2023년과 2024년은 평균 51.18%, 2025년과 2026년은 평균 51.71%까지 증가해 나갈 수 있을 것으로 예측된다. 이러한 측면은 미국을 중심으로 하는 USMCA에서도 일어나고 있다. 한국의 무역과 물류업체들의 경우 세계적인 보호무역주의와 함께 새로운 트렌드로 진행되고 있는 리쇼어링에 대하여 잘 준비해 나가야 한다는 판단이다.

CPTPP에 따른 한국의 무역전환 연구: 무역 실무적 관점에서

송백훈 한국무역상무학회 2019 貿易商務硏究 Vol.84 No.-

본 연구는 환태평양경제동반자협정(CPTPP)의 발효에 따른 거시경제 효과 및 산업별 생산 및 수출입 효과를 CGE모형을 통해 분석한다. 연구결과에 따르면, CPTPP 발효는 전반적으로 한국경제에 부정적 효과를 가져 온다. CPTPP 회원국들 간의 무역창출효과와 무역전환효과의 발생으로 인해 회원국 간의 무역은 증가하는 반면, 한국의 CPTPP국가들에 대한 수출은 감소한다. 반면, 추후 한국이 CPTPP의 2차 회원국으로 가입하게 될 경우, 다시 이들 국가로의 수출이 회복되어 무역전화효과는 약화될 것으로 추정된다. 2차 회원국으로 참여할 경우, 기존 회원국들은 더 높은 시장개방을 요구할 가능성이 크다. 따라서 한국은 CPTPP로 피해를 보는 중국과 함께 가입을 시도하여 후발주자에게 요구하는 부담을 줄이도록 노력해야 할 것이다. This study analyzes the macroeconomic effects and industrial production and export/import effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) by using CGE model. According to the results of the study, the effectuation of CPTPP give a negative effect on the Korean economy. That is, Korea’s GDP will be decreased and there is a negative impact on Korea’s export. Due to the trade creation effects and trade diversion effects among CPTPP member states, trades between member countries increase. while Korea's exports to CPTPP countries decrease. On the other hand, if Korea joins the CPTPP as a secondary member, it is estimated that exports to these countries will be recovered and the trade depression effect will be weakened. If Korea decides to participate CPTPP as a secondary member, existing members are likely to call for greater market opening. China's GDP continues to decline with the effectuation of CPTPP and expansion of member states. Therefore, Korea need to remind China of negative changes in its economy if China does not join CPTPP, thereby encouraging China to join CPTPP with Korea together to reduce the additional burden that existing members can impose on secondary participants.

우리나라 Incoterms 사용에 관한 무역통계 및 설문조사

김고현(Ko Hyun KIM),박광서(Kwang-So Park) 한국무역상무학회 2020 貿易商務硏究 Vol.86 No.-

개정된 Incoterms 2020는 표면적으로는 DAT조건만 DPU조건으로 변경되어 전체 11가지 거래조건의 형태를 그대로 유지하고, 본선인도조건(FOB, CFR, CIF)을 맨 뒤에 배치하여 종전의 운송인인도조건(FCA, CPT, CIP)으로 대체하려는 입장도 유지하고 있다. 하지만 ICC의 입장과는 별개로 본선인도조건 사용의 우위는 계속되는 가운데 우리나라를 비롯해 국제적으로 인코텀즈의 사용현황에 대한 정확한 자료가 공표되지 않고 있다. 본 연구는 2018년을 기준으로 무역거래 조건에 대한 무역통계를 분석하고 설문조사를 실시하여 정확한 인코텀즈 사용현황을 파악하고자 하였다. 이러한 연구가 무역업자 및 연구자들에게 인코텀즈의 정확한 사용현황을 제공하여 올바른 무역조건의 사용과 관습의 정착에 이바지하길 바란다. This study not only analyzed based on the 2018 Korea Trade Statistics, but also conducted the same contents as the “Survey on Incoterms Usage Status in Korea” conducted by the researcher in 2009 to understand the usage status and changes over 10 years. First, people still use FOB, CFR and CIF 58 and 52.6 percentage points more in terms of number and amount of transactions traded than FCA, CPT and CIP. In addition, the use of FOB, CFR and CIF was higher in imports than in exports. Second, awareness of Incoterms is steadily improving. The perception of the meaning of Incoterms is not just a price condition but a complex meaning of the obligations of between the seller and the buyer. Third, there were some problems related to the "D" terms of Incoterms. There has been a lot of confusion about the risks and costs of unloaded, mandatory import duties and inclusion costs due to the constant revision of the "D" conditions since incoterms 1990. Lastly, it is necessary to prepare on DDP and EXW terms for the expansion of CBEC(cross border e- commerce). According to trends such as B2C, small quantity trading, multimodal transportation, and simple payment, DDP and EXW terms also need to be developed, and some variants like LDP(Landed Duty Paid) and so on. This study is meaningful in that it is the first study in Korea based on korea trade statistics. We hope that this study will contribute to the use of correct trade terms and the establishment of trade practices.

4차 산업혁명시대 무역업체 수요를 반영한 무역실무 교육과정 개발과 적용에 관한 연구

박세훈 한국무역상무학회 2019 貿易商務硏究 Vol.84 No.-

In recent years, the global trade environment has become the fourth industrial revolution era in which manufacturing industry and information and communication technology are combined in the third industrial revolution era. Especially with the development of digital technologies such as artificial intelligence, Big Data and Block Chain, the global trade environment is also being intelligent based on hyper-connectedness. These technological innovations enabled the mass production of various varieties in trade transactions. Furthermore, AI and Big data are combined to develop products that identify consumer needs from the product development stage. In addition, the trade payment method, logistics and customs environment are changing with the use of technologies such as Block Chain and Drones. The change call for trade talents who can understand and solve problems related to the fourth industry. In order to overcome the limitations of the trade practice curriculum due to the changes in the global trade environment, this study analyzed the current situation and problems of the trade practice curriculum. Furthermore, we surveyed the opinions of trade workers. Based on this study, I would like to propose a plan for the development and application of the trade practice curriculum required for the trade talents in the 4th Industrial Revolution. 전통적인 무역실무교육은 상품무역을 중심으로 이루어지고 있다. 하지만 4차 산업혁명시대 글로벌 무역환경은 상품거래 중심에서 서비스, 융복합무역, B2C 중심의 전자상거래 등으로 확대되고 있다. 이에 기존의 무역실무 교육으로 무역업체가 요구하는 무역인재를 양성하기에는 한계가 있다. 이러한 한계를 극복하기 위한 방안으로 본 논문에서는 무역실무교육 현황 및 문제점 분석을 하고 나아가 무역업체의 무역실무인력에 대한 수요도 조사 및 분석을 하고자 한다. 이러한 연구를 바탕으로 4차 산업혁명시대에 무역업체에서 요구하는 인재를 양성하기 위한 무역실무 교육과정 개발과 적용을 위한 개편방안을 제시하고자 한다.

한국과 중국의 물류 환경 비교 및 중국의 물류 발전방안에 관한 연구

서치,박석재,장곤 한국무역상무학회 2022 貿易商務硏究 Vol.95 No.-

본 연구는 세계에서 두 번째의 경제 규모를 갖추고 있으며, 한국의 최대 교역상대국인 중국을 중심으로 한국과 중국의 물류 환경을 비교하고 중국의 물류 발전방안을 고찰하였다. 중국은 한국에 비해 국제물류 시스템의 효율성이 낮고 높은 원가의 문제 및 중국 제3자 물류 발전 지체로 인한 한국과 중국 국제물류 연결의 문제를 가지고 있다. 중국이 한국과의 국제물류 발전을 위해서는 원산지 모델의 메이드인 차이나에서 메이드인 코리아로의 전환이 필요하고, 인프라 건설 확대를 통한 한국과 중국 물류의 상호 연동이 필요하며, 한국과 중국 국제물류의 기술협력 모델 강화를 통한 정보화 관리 수준의 향상이 요구된다. 한국과 중국이 국제물류 분야에서 협력을 확대하여 상호 윈윈할 수 있기를 기대한다.

「무역상무연구」 전자무역 분야 게재 논문 메타분석

임성철 한국무역상무학회 2023 貿易商務硏究 Vol.100 No.-

This paper is a meta-analysis of articles in the field of e-transactions published in volumes 1 through 99 of the Korean Research Institute of International Commerce & Law's journal, International Commerce & Law Review. A total of 1080 articles were published in the Journal of Trade and Commerce until the 99th volume, and among them, 135 articles were published in the field of electronic trade, representing 12.5% of the total. Chapter 2 provides an overview of the published articles, averaging the number of articles in the field of electronic trade over time relative to the total number of articles published in the journal, and analyzing the language and research methodology. Chapter 3 analyzed the researchers who published a lot of articles, the affiliation of the researchers, the proportion of solo and joint research, and the proportion of domestic and foreign references. In Chapter 4, related keywords and brief topics of published papers were analyzed through keyword analysis. In the keyword analysis, "e-commerce", "EDI", "electronic bill of lading", and "Bolero" were frequent from the 1990s to the early 2000s. From 2005 to 2014, "e-Trade", "uTradeHub", "eUCP", etc. were more frequent. From 2015 onwards, "cross-border sales", "cross-boarder", "electronic transferable record", "blockchain", "smart contract", "fintech", etc. were more frequent. In terms of time, EDI started in the 1990s, e-commerce was activated in the early 2000s, and the uTradeHub service was launched in 2008. Since the mid-2010s, cross-border e-commerce has been activated by increasing direct overseas purchases, and new technologies such as blockchain are bringing changes to trade. In line with these developments, the Korean Research Institute of International Commerce & Law's "International Commerce & Law Review" has been leading research in line with e-trade practices.