GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN OF KOREA’S AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

ESAMBE SONE,JONG-HWAN KO 한국무역학회 2019 한국무역학회 국제학술대회 Vol.2019 No.08

총요소생산성의 추정을 통한 기술진보가 한국경제에 미치는 기여에 관한 연구

Sone Esambe,고종환(Ko Jonghwan) 부경대학교 인문사회과학연구소 2016 인문사회과학연구 Vol.17 No.1

본 논문에서는 기술진보가 한국경제의 생산에 얼마나 기여하였는가를 파악하기위해 성장회계방정식을 기반으로 한국 경제의 총요소생산성을 추정하였다. 한국의 KLEMS자료에 포함된 72개 산업의 거시통합자료를 만들고, 72개 산업을 농업, 광업, 제조업, 공익산업(수도 전기 가스 수도 등) 및 서비스산업 등 5개 산업군으로 나누었다. 1970년-2012년 분석기간 동안 광업과 제조업 분야의 총요소생산성이 비교적 크게 나타났지만, 농업, 공익산업 및 서비스업에서는 총요소생산성이 매우 낮게 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 한국 제조업이 총요소생산성의 향상에 힘입어 국제경쟁력을 갖게 되었다는 사실과, 특히 서비스업시장의 자유화를 통해 한국 서비스산업의 기술진보를 유도할 필요가 있다는 사실을 의미한다. 서비스시장의 개방을 통한 생산성의 향상은 다양한 서비스를 중간재로 사용하는 제조업의 생산성 향상에도 기여하게 될 것이다. We aim to examine the contribution of technical progress to the Korean economy with estimated total factor productivity (TFP). We use growth accounting equation in connection with the Korean KLEMS database for 1970-2012. We focus on the 72 sectors as prescribed by EU KLEMS-March 2011 updated database. After being examined at aggregate level, they were classified into five subgroups such as agriculture, mining, manufacturing, utilities, and services. TFP was calculated for the aggregate level as a whole consisting of 72 sectors as well as for five subgroups. The estimated results show that the total factor productivity growth rates for agriculture, utilities and services sectors are insignificant compared to those of the mining and manufacturing sectors. This is due to the Korean government’s policy to prioritize the manufacturing sector to improve its global competitiveness, implying that Korea has already obtained a high productivity level and its scope for further productivity improvement is limited. Therefore, there is a need to liberalize the services sector, leading to the increase of the productivity of the manufacturing sectors which use liberalized services as inputs.

독일과 한국 자동차 산업의 글로벌가치사슬에 관한 비교연구

( Esambe Sone ),고종환 ( Jong-hwan Ko ) 한독경상학회 2021 經商論叢 Vol.39 No.1

본 논문에서는 교역국간의 총수출을 16개의 부가가치 요소로 나누는 Wang-Wei-Zhu 분해법을 이용하여 독일과 한국 자동차 부문의 총 회계 구조를 비교 분석하였다. Wang-Wei-Zhu 분해법은 일련의 분해과정을 통하여 국제 생산 공유의 패턴을 이해하는데 도움이 된다. 자동차 총수출의 16개의 부가가치 요소는 크게 수출에 내재된 국내 부가가치와 해외 부가가치로 나눌 수 있는데, 본 논문에서는 다시 8개의 부가가치 구성요소로 재구성하여 설명하였다. 본 연구에 활용된 자료는 2014년을 기준년으로 2016년에 발표된 세계투입산출표(WIOD)이다. 자동차 생산 세계 순위를 기준으로 세계투입산출표에 포함된 총 43개국 중 14개국을 선정하고 나머지 국가는 기타 국가(ROW)로 통합하여 총 15개국을 연구 대상으로 하였으며, 총 56개 산업은 자동차, 제약, 건설 등 주요 산업과 함께 30개의 산업으로 통합하였다. 분석 결과를 보면 생산자 가격으로 평가한 총 생산량과 중간재 소비와 관련된 부가가치 수출(VAX) 비율이 양국간 큰 차이가 있음에도 불구하고 독일과 한국의 주요 수출국은 미국이다. 독일 자동차 부문의 수직적 특화(VS) 비율은 한국보다 큰 것으로 분석되었다. 독일과 한국 모두 자동차 수출에 있어서 글로벌 공유 양식을 보이고 있는 것은 흥미로운 일이다. 또한 최종 수출품에 포함된 독일의 해외 부가가치 중 캐나다가 차지하는 비중이 가장 높은 것으로 분석된 반면, 최종 수출품에 포함된 한국의 해외 부가가치 중 프랑스가 차지하는 비중이 가장 큰 것으로 분석되었다. This paper aims to do a comparative study on the gross accounting structures of the automobile sectors of Germany and Korea using the Wang-Wei-Zhu decomposition method, which splits bilateral gross exports into 16 value-added components. This method assists in producing a series of decomposition results to show how such a structural decomposition can help us to better understand the pattern of international production sharing. These components can broadly be divided into domestic and foreign value-added in exports. The data source is the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), released in 2016, with 2014 as the base year. Fourteen countries out of the 43 countries in the database were selected based on their world rankings in the production of automobiles, and the remainder of countries was aggregated into the rest of the world (ROW), giving a total of 15 countries, while the 56 industries in the database were aggregated into 30 industries with some key industries such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, construction, and so on. The results of this analysis show that the principal export destination of both Germany and Korea is the United States, despite the countries’ huge differences in value-added export (VAX) ratios,which could possibly be related to both countries’ gross output and intermediate consumption at purchasers’ prices. The vertical specialization (VS) share of Germany’s automobile sector is greater than that of Korea. Interestingly, both countries follow a global sharing arrangement. Also, a greater share of Germany’s foreign value-added in final exports comes from Canada, while a greater share of Korea’s foreign value-added in final exports originates from France.

The Russia-Ukraine War and Its Impact on the Food Security of Korea, China, and Japan: A CGE Approach

Esambe Sone,Jong-Hwan Ko The International Academy of Global Business and T 2023 The International Academy of Global Business and T Vol.19 No.5

Purpose - In 2021, Ukraine and Russia exported 12% and 17% of global wheat, being significant grain producers and exporters. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine greatly impacts Ukraine’s wheat production and trade. In this regard, this study examines the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on global food security using the computable general equilibrium approach. Design/Methodology/Approach - We utilized the global multi-sector standard GTAP model, specifically the GTAP Database Version 11, with a base year of 2017. For this research purpose, the original 160 regions and 65 sectors of the GTAP database were aggregated into 23 regions and 24 sectors. Due to the uncertain nature of the conflict duration between Russia and Ukraine, we designed three scenarios: Slight, Medium, and Severe. Each scenario represents varying degrees of wheat production, trade disruption, and an increase in wheat production by third producers for shocks. Findings - The study reveals several effects: real GDP decreases for Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, India, and Georgia, while countries like Egypt, Turkey, Azerbaijan, India, Korea, and Japan experience diminished economic welfare. Russia’s invasion can affect wheat imports of countries like Turkey, India, Mongolia, and Egypt. Ukraine, Egypt, Turkey, and India registered trade surpluses, while others recorded deficits Research Implications - The ongoing conflict complicates assessing long-term consequences on global food security. Policymakers are advised to monitor closely, implement strategies to mitigate disruptions, and foster international collaboration to alleviate adverse effects on trade, economies, and food security, particularly of nations heavily reliant on Ukraine’s wheat exports, like Egypt, Turkey, Mongolia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.

A Korea-Kenya Free Trade Agreement and Its Economic Impact: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach

Geoffrey Musyoki Kitetu(Geoffrey Musyoki Kitetu ),Jong-Hwan Ko(Jong-Hwan Ko),Esambe Sone(Esambe Sone) 한국무역연구원 2023 무역연구 Vol.19 No.1

Purpose – This study assesses the impact of a potential Korea-Kenya FTA on the global economy, which includes the US, EU, UK, China, and Japan, using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. Design/Methodology/Approach – The study employs a static global multi-sector CGE model using the GTAP database version 10 with the base year of 2014. For this study, we aggregate the 141 regions and 65 sectors of the GTAP database into 16 regions and 57 sectors. Four policy simulations were implemented based on tariffs and ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) of non-tariff measures (NTMs) estimated by Kitetu and Ko Jong-Hwan (2021). Findings – Simulation results suggest that the real GDP of Korea will likely increase by 0.001% to 0.002%, with welfare increasing by US$1.8 million to US$74.7 million. In comparison, the real GDP of Kenya will likely rise by 0.003% to 0.045%, while welfare will rise by US$1.8 million to US$ 75.3 million. Imports by both countries will rise at a higher rate than exports. For Kenya, domestic output increases in agriculture, extraction, and service sectors, and for Korea, output goes up in processed food and light and heavy manufacturing sectors. Research Implications – The novelty of this paper is in the first empirical quantification of the economic impact of a Korea-Kenya FTA on not only its members but also its trading partners, such as the US, EU, UK, China, and Japan. Moreover, this study provides a comprehensive overview of the impact of a potential FTA between Korea and Kenya by reducing and eliminating tariffs and AVEs of NTMs.