http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
김형준(Hyeongjun Kim),류두진(Doojin Ryu),조훈(Hoon Cho) 한국증권학회 2018 한국증권학회지 Vol.47 No.2
2007년 7월 출시된 주택연금은 우리나라의 고령화 문제와 부동산에 편중된 자산구조의 불균형 문제를 해소할 방안으로 주목받으며 지난 10년간 빠르게 성장하였다. 그러나 주택연금을 취급하는 금융기관은 상품의 현금흐름 특성으로 인해 공급이 확대될수록 유동성 문제에 직면하게 된다. 본 연구는 이러한 상황을 고려하여, 미국의 공적보증 역모기지 상품인 HECM(Home Equity Conversion Mortgage)의 유동성 공급 사례를 분석하고 이를 바탕으로 주택연금 유동화증권 발행 및 현금흐름구조를 제안하였다. 또한, 주택연금 공급자료를 이용하여 주택연금 유동화증권이 발행되었을 때 예상되는 현금흐름을 계산하고, 그 특징에 대하여 분석하였다. 본 연구의 분석결과는 주택연금 유동화증권발행을 위한 선결과제의 측면에서 다음의 정책제언을 함의한다. 첫째, 담보주택에 대한 각 참여지분의 근저당권 설정을 조정할 수 있게끔 제도적 보완이 필요하다. 둘째, 발행기관은 주택연금 유동화증권의 만기를 특정함으로써 현금흐름의 불확실성을 일부 해소할 필요가 있다. 셋째, 관련 거시변수와 주택연금 조기상환율의 관계에 관한 모형연구로, 정밀한 현금흐름 추정이 필요하다. 넷째, 금리·주택가격·기대여명 등 관련된 리스크에 대한 정확한 이해와 함께, 관계기관과의 협업을 통한 정책적 대비가 있어야 한다. JooTaekYeonKeum, the reverse mortgage in Korea, was launched in July 2007 and has grown significantly over the past decade. It has attracted attention as a measure for solving the problem of aging in Korea and the imbalance in the asset structure, which is concentrated in real estate. However, financial institutions face liquidity problems as the supply of JooTaekYeonKeum increases due to these institutions’ cash flow characteristics. This study analyzes the case of the liquidity supply of home equity conversion mortgages, which are public guaranteed mortgage products in the United States. Based on this analysis, we propose the issuance of JooTaekYeonKeum-backed securities and their cash flow structures. In addition, based on JooTaekYeonKeum supply data, we calculate the expected cash flow when the JooTaekYeonKeum-backed securities are issued and analyze the characteristics of the securities. The results lead to the following four policy proposals. First, it is necessary to guarantee the right of each participating institution to collateral security. Second, the issuers need to specify the maturities of the securities. Third, the prepayment model of JooTaekYeonKeum is required to estimate cash flows more precisely. Fourth, there should be a clear understanding of the related risks, such as interest rate, housing price, and life expectancy risks.
고속도로 자율주행 전용차로 도입 시 혼합교통류 특성 분석 시나리오 개발 연구
김형준(KIM, Hyeongjun),백성채(BAEK, Seongchae),윤덕근(YUN, Dukgeun),박제진(PARK, Jejin) 대한교통학회 2021 대한교통학회지 Vol.39 No.6
Recently, various laws and regulations to revitalize autonomous vehicles and national, private research, development tasks are underway and the commercialization of connected and autonomous vehicles driving technologies is approaching. Accordingly, it is necessary to review the introduction of exclusive lanes for autonomous vehicles to establish a new road ecosystem. In this study, a scenario for analyzing the characteristics of mixed traffic flow according to the introduction of exclusive lanes was developed, and the scenario was analyzed in terms of mobility. As a result, merging area and diverging area deteriorated traffic flow as the LOS and MPR increased when introducing exclusive lanes, resulting in a decrease in traffic volume. In addition, in the LOS D-E and MPR 10-20% sections, when exclusive lanes were introduced, a phenomenon occurred in which lanes other than exclusive lanes were supersaturated. Therefore, “no exclusive lane” without platooning was the best in terms of mobility, and the adverse effect of the introduction of exclusive lanes was most pronounced in the LOS D-E and 10-20% MPR sections. However, except for the section when introducing exclusive lanes for connected and autonomous vehicles, the introduction of “third lane” better results in terms of mobility than the introduction of “first lane”. In future studies, all variable values applied in this study should be redefined in consideration of the specifications and technologies of autonomous vehicles currently being developed. This study is meaningful in establishing various scenarios to be considered when introducing exclusive lanes for autonomous vehicles based on connected and autonomous vehicles, and it is suggested that the results of this study can be used as basic frame when conducting research on exclusive lanes for autonomous vehicles in the future.
시계열 요소분해법을 활용한 발틱건화물운임지수(BDI) 예측
김형준(Hyeongjun Kim),류두진(Doojin Ryu),조훈(Hoon Cho) 한국경영학회 2019 經營學硏究 Vol.48 No.3
The shipping freight rate index is an indicator of fluctuations in the cost of shipping raw materials and commodities. It is used to diagnose and predict changes in the global real economy and in the shipping market. Thus, both financial institutions and the shipping industry need to strengthen their capacity to forecast and analyze the index. In this study, we conduct a shortterm forecast of the Baltic Dry Index, a representative maritime freight rate index, using the time-series factor decomposition method. To verify our model’s predictive power, we apply the prediction method presented in this study to past data with different sample intervals and perform a backtest to compare the predicted values with actual observations. The root mean square forecast error of the backtest shows that our prediction model outperforms the random walk model. The results suggest that it is possible to conduct a significant short-term forecast of the shipping freight rate index because it involves a short-term trend and seasonality. These time-series characteristics of the shipping freight rate can be used to quantitatively provide short-term market forecasts.