농가경영안정을 위한 농업수입보험제도 도입에 관한 연구

정원호(Wonho Chung),최경환(Kyung-Hwan Choi),임지은(Ji-Eun Lim),김윤종(Yoon-Jong Kim),최세균 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

Background of Research As the volatility of quantity and prices of agricultural products increases due to irregular weather events and the expansion of market openness, Korean farmers face management uncertainty increasingly. Our current management stabilization policy is not sufficient because it covers either price fall conditionally only for limited items or quantity loss caused by natural disasters. Furthermore, direct payment for income stabilization considered for several years could not be introduced. All of these motivated us to start to consider revenue insurance. There have been various opinions on the possibility and timing of introduction of revenue insurance while most people agree that revenue insurance could contribute to farm income stabilization and increase social welfare. The Korean government is planning to introduce the pilot program of revenue insurance in 2015 based on the result of two years of tabletop exercises. Therefore, at this stage we need to review the conditions, plan, and consideration for introducing revenue insurance to find policy implications. Method of Research This study reviewed the need for the introduction of revenue insurance, conditions and circumstances, desired effects, farmers" need, proper items, examples of foreign countries, plans and challenges. We reviewed previous studies and materials, collected and analyzed the insurance data, conducted farm surveys and econometric analysis, and considered all possible ideas suggested in seminars, meetings, and conferences. Research Results and Implications We found that all conditions for introducing revenue insurance are not fully satisfied but there could be possible ways to introduce it in our circumstances. We also found that revenue insurance will stabilize farm income by reducing the income volatility by 5~40% and increase social benefits by 27.5 billion won. In addition, many of the survey participants are interested in the program. Based on the results, the positive effect will be maximized if we introduce the program smoothly at the possible level. This study provides eight suggestions for introducing revenue insurance. First of all, a reasonable foundation considering our farm and market conditions should be established. Second, the development of an accurate and systematic insurance database is indispensable. Third, farmer"s need should be considered carefully from the stage of system design. Fourth, the revenue insurance needs to be related to current farm management stabilization programs without overlapping or conflicts. Fifth, a loss adjustment measure better than in crop insurance should be prepared for the complicated revenue insurance. Sixth, government subsidy in the reinsurance system is more important than in crop insurance because the contingency of price volatility would not be guaranteed. Seventh, revenue insurance requires more governmental budget so that the items and coverage level should be determined under the budget constraints. Finally, the program should be introduced following a phased road map based on the result of tabletop exercises and pilot programs.

농작물재해보험의 위험분산체계 개선방안

정원호 ( Wonho Chung ) 한국축산경영학회 2013 농업경영정책연구 Vol.40 No.2

2012년 대형 재해로 인하여 민영보험사는 물론 국가재보험과 해외재보험의 손실폭이 확대됨에 따라 농작물재해보험의 위험분산체계에 대한 재검토가 절실한 시점이다. 민영 보험사들은 해외재보험사들의 재보험요율 인상압력으로 2013년 사업추진이 불투명해지자 정부에게 국가재보험의 인수범위 확대를 통한 지원을 요청하였다. 본 연구에서 살펴본 바와 같이 단순히 국가재보험의 인수범위만 확대하는 것은 민영보험사에서 정부로의 손실의 전가에 불과하므로 보다 근본적인 위험분산체계의 개선방안이 필요하다. 주요 선진국의 국가재보험 사례의 검토와 함께 경험분포와 확률분포에 기초한 재보험 요율을 추정한 결과 일부 손해율 구간에 대해 추가적으로 해외재보험에 가입하는 것보다 손해율 전체 구간에 대하여 민영보험서와 국가가 손익을 분담함으로써 국내에서 위험을 분산하는 것이 국가 전체적인 차원에서 유리한 것으로 나타났다. 지속적인 자료의 축적을 통해 추가적인 분석이 필요하겠지만 위험그룹별로 차별화된 국가재보험을 적용 하는 것이 국가재보험의 안정적인 운영에 도움이 될 것으로 판단된다. 즉, 저위험 그룹에 대해서는 모든 손해율 구간에서 민영보험사와 국가재보험이 위험을 분담하며, 고위 험 그룹의 경우는 일정수준(예컨대 손해율 500%) 이내의 위험은 민영보험사와 국가가 분담하고 500%를 초과하는 극단적인 손해에 한해서만 해외재재보험을 활용하는 방안을 고려할 수 있다. 이 경우 해외재재보험사들이 제시하는 보험료의 적절성을 검토하기 위 하여 추가적인 자료의 수집과 해외재보험시장에 대한 정보의 확보가 선결되어야 한다. 아울러 향후 농작물보험의 확대를 대비하여 재보험기금의 안정적인 운영 및 재원확보를 위한 방안도 검토할 필요가 있을 것으로 보인다. This study reviews our current reinsurance system for crop insurance program and finds improvements on the system. We compare our reinsure-ance system with those of several developed countries and analyze returns of private institutes and government under our system to find improve-ments. As a result, we suggest to distribute risks between private insurance companies and government within the country through all levels of loss ratio for each of the two risk groups, high risk and low risk groups.

ICT 기술 고도화를 통한 스마트농업 확산

김주만,정원호,Kim, Joo-Man,Chung, Wonho 한국인터넷방송통신학회 2018 한국인터넷방송통신학회 논문지 Vol.18 No.4

본 논문은 ICT 기술의 고도화를 통한 스마트 농업 확산 전략을 제시한다. 오늘날 세계는 환경 오염 문제와 지구 온난화로 전통 농업이 위협을 받고 있으며, 또한 저 출산 및 고령화에 따른 농업 종사자의 감소가 뚜렷하여 향후 식량 자원에 대한 사회적 문제가 예상된다. ICT 기술과 농업의 융합은 노동 집약적인 1차 산업이 아닌, 재배와 제조 및 서비스를 포함하는 새로운 페러다임을 제시하고 있다. 적은 노동력으로 양질의 식량을 안정적으로 공급할 수 있는 스마트팜 기술 보급이 시급한 실정이다. 본 논문에서는 현재 스마트팜 기술 현황을 살펴보고, 확산의 저해 요인을 분석하고 ICT 기술의 고도화를 통한 향후 스마트농업 발전 방향을 제시한다. This paper suggests smart agricultural diffusion strategy through advanced ICT technology. Today, the world is threatened by environmental pollution and traditional warming due to global warming, and the decrease in agricultural workers due to low fertility and aging is expected to bring social problems to future food resources. The convergence of ICT technology and agriculture is not a labor-intensive primary industry, but a new paradigm that includes cultivation, manufacturing and services. It is urgent to spread smart farm technology that can supply stable food with low labor force. In this paper, we review the current state of smart farm technology, analyze the impediments to diffusion, and present the direction of smart agricultural development in the future by upgrading ICT technology.

밀양 깻잎 농업의 총소득 극대화를 위한 적정 생산 규모 전망

조재환(Jae-Hwan Cho),정원호(Wonho Chung) 한국산학기술학회 2021 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.22 No.1

본 연구는 경남 밀양 깻잎 농업의 수급 및 가격 모형을 개발하고 정책 실험을 통해 밀양 깻잎 생산 농가의 총소득을 극대화하는 적정 생산 규모를 전망한다. 분석 자료는 밀양 깻잎 농업의 총 소득과 관련된 22개년 시계열 자료(1996~2017년)가 이용되었다. 분석 방법은 수요 함수와 평균 비용 함수 추정을 통하여 적정 생산량과 가격을 산출하고 이를 통해 적정 소득을 도출하였다. 또한, 시나리오 분석을 통하여 2030년까지 예상되는 밀양 깻잎 최적 생산량과 이에 해당하는 판매 가격, 총 수입, 총 비용, 총 소득을 전망하였다. 밀양 깻잎 생산 농가 전체를 대상으로 총 소득을 극대화하기 위해서는 2017년에 7천 톤 규모인 밀양 깻잎 생산량을 2030년까지 10~12.5천 톤으로 증가시킬 필요가 있다. 이 경우 밀양 깻잎 농업에 귀속되는 총 소득은 133~213억 원 수준으로 전망된다. 앞으로 밀양 깻잎 생산자 단체는 본 연구에서 제시한 적정 생산 규모를 유지하여 농가에게 귀속하는 총 소득을 증대시키도록 노력해야 할 것이다. This study develops a demand and supply model and price model for Miryang sesame leaf cultivation and predicts the optimal production level to maximize total profit for Miryang sesame leaf farms. We used time series data from 1996 to 2017, which are related to Miryang sesame leaf cultivation. For the analysis, we estimated the demand function and average cost function, calculated the optimal production level and price, and derived the optimal profit. In addition, we predicted the optimal production level, price, total revenue, total cost, and profit until the year 2030 through scenario analysis. The results show that the optimal production level until the year 2030 is between 10 and 12.5 thousand tons, while the production volume was 7 thousand tons in 2017, and total profit for Miryang sesame leaf farms is estimated at 13.3 to 21.3 billion Korean won in 2030. The producer group needs to maintain the optimal production level to maximize total profit for farmers, as suggested in this study.

농작물재해보험의 국가재보험제도 평가 및 개선방안

강수진(Sujin Kang),정원호(Wonho Chung) 한국농업경제학회 2016 農業經濟硏究 Vol.57 No.2

The purpose of this study is to evaluate our current government reinsurance program and find its improvement strategies for crop insurance. Our current reinsurance program as a pilot program during 3 years(2014~2016), which provides private insurance companies with different level of government guarantees for each of the three risk groups(high, medium, low) of agricultural items, replaced the previous program which provided the same guarantee level for all items. We compare the profit/loss of government reinsurance fund and private insurance companies between the current and previous programs and estimate fair value of reinsurance premium through two different approaches, historical data analysis and simulation. To compare the stability of government reinsurance fund between the two programs, we also estimate default risk and required fund balance for each of various scenarios. The result shows that our current pilot program did not improve the previous one and, even worse, increased the loss and default risk of government reinsurance fund compared with the previous program. Therefore, we suggest to reform the overall structure of our reinsurace system to apply the U.S. system in order to develop stably our crop insurance program.

농작물재해보험의 국가재보험제도 평가 및 개선방안

강수진 ( Sujin Kang ),정원호 ( Wonho Chung ) 한국농업경제학회 2017 農業經濟硏究 Vol.58 No.2

The purpose of this study is to evaluate our current government reinsurance program and find its improvement strategies for crop insurance. Our current reinsurance program as a pilot program during 3 years(2014~2016), which provides private insurance companies with different level of government guarantees for each of the three risk groups(high, medium, low) of agricultural items, replaced the previous program which provided the same guarantee level for all items. We compare the profit/loss of government reinsurance fund and private insurance companies between the cur-rent and previous programs and estimate fair value of reinsurance premium through two different approaches, historical data analysis and simulation. To compare the stability of government re-insurance fund between the two programs, we also estimate default risk and required fund balance for each of various scenarios. The result shows that our current pilot program did not improve the previous one and, even worse, increased the loss and default risk of government reinsurance fund compared with the previous program. Therefore, we suggest to reform the overall structure of our reinsurace system to apply the U.S. system in order to develop stably our crop insurance program.

과수고품질 시설현대화사업 성과 분석

정호중(Hojung Jeong),최예준(Yejun Choi),정원호(Wonho Chung) 한국농식품정책학회 2021 농업경영정책연구 Vol.48 No.1

This study analyzes policy effect on farmers who participated in the facility modernization policy for improvement of fruit quality. We focus on grape and pear farmers, which account for a relatively large proportion of domestic fruits. Based on the sample collected from the survey on both farmers who participated in the policy and those who did not, we conduct basic statistical analysis and Propensity Score Matching. The result shows that the competitiveness of grape farmers who participated in the policy increased in terms of fruit quality and production volume. The policy greatly contributed to an increase in brix, farm prices and production volume. Pears also showed an improvement in the quality of fruit. Overall satisfaction with the policy showed a very high score, and was recorded as the most satisfied in fruit quality improvement.

Impact of Multiple Prostate Biopsies: Risk of Perioperative Complications and Biochemical Recurrence After Radical Prostatectomy

Kyong Min Park(박경민),Jae-Wook Chung(정재욱),Jun-Koo Kang(강준구),Teak Jun Shin(신택준),Se Yun Kwon(권세윤),Hyun Chan Jang(장현찬),Yun-Sok Ha(하윤석),Seock Hwan Choi(최석환),Wonho Jung(정원호),Jun Nyung Lee(이준녕),Byung Hoon Kim 대한비뇨기종양학회 2020 대한비뇨기종양학회지 Vol.18 No.1

Purpose: The aim of this study was to analyze the perioperative complications and oncological outcomes of radical prostatectomy (RP) in patients who underwent multiple prostate biopsies. Materials and Methods: A total of 1,112 patients who underwent RP between January 2009 and April 2016 at 4 different centers were included in this study. We divided these patients into 2 groups: patients who underwent only 1st biopsy, and those who underwent 2nd or more repeated biopsies. The association between the number of prior biopsies and perioperative complications and biochemical recurrence (BCR) was analyzed. Results: Of 1,112 patients, 1,046 patients (94.1%) underwent only 1st biopsy, and 66 (5.9%) underwent 2nd or more repeated biopsies. There were no significant differences in preoperative prostate-specific antigen levels, operation times, blood loss volumes, or hospital stay durations (all p>0.05). Patients who underwent multiple prostate biopsies presented with a localized tumor significantly more often (p<0.05). The Gleason score and rate of positive surgical margins were significantly lower in patients with multiple biopsies (all p<0.05). The Cox proportional hazards model analysis indicated that there was no association between the number of prior prostate biopsies and BCR (p>0.05). Kaplan-Meier curve analysis indicated that BCR-free survival rates between the 2 groups were similar (p>0.05). Conclusions: Multiple prostate biopsies are not associated with an increased risk of perioperative complications, adverse pathological outcomes, or higher rates of BCR in patients who have undergone RP.

대재해채권 발행을 통한 국가재보험 보완방안 연구

윤성욱 ( Yun Sung-wuk ),최장훈 ( Choi Jang-hoon ),정원호 ( Chung Wonho ) 한국축산경영학회,농업정책학회(구 한국축산경영학회) 2020 농업경영정책연구 Vol.47 No.4

This study examines whether Cat Bond could be used to complement the current government reinsurance program which shoulders a heavy financial burden as crop insurance program continues to expand. We estimate bond issue volume and coupon premium to repay insurance indemnities in case of a catastrophic disaster through Monte Carlo simulation approach. In addition, we compare the fund stability between current government reinsurance program and Cat Bond by using volatility coefficient. The result shows that the coupon rate of Cat Bond is estimated between 1.59% and 23.85% depending on the level of principal loss rate, which could be attractive for investors. For the comparison of fund stability, the volatility coefficient of fund from Cat Bond is much lower than that of current government reinsurance fund, which implies that Cat Bond could contribute to improve the fund stability.

농업부문 자조금 운영실태와 개선방안

박성재(Seong-Jae Park),박준기(Joon-Kee Park),정원호(Wonho Chung),임지은(Ji-Eun Lim) 한국농촌경제연구원 2012 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

연구의 배경 시장개방에 대응한 농업 생존전략의 하나로 논의된 우리나라 자조금은 20년 전 출범하여 현재 34개 품목(원예 25, 축산 9)에서 운영되고 있다. 자조금제도는 축산자조금법(축산자조금의 조성 및 운용에 관한 법률)과 농안법에 근거하고 있으며 내년에는 농수산부문 자조금법(농수산자조금의 조성 및 운용에 관한 법률) 또한 시행될 예정이다. 이렇듯 농업부문 자조금제도의 법적 근거는 마련되어 있으나 정책적으로는 명확한 중장기 비전이 마련되지 않았다. 대부분의 자조금이 설립된 지 얼마 되지 않아 기금규모가 영세하고, 관리운영 효율성 등의 측면에서 미흡한 점이 지적되고 있다. 자조금의 건실한 발전을 유도하고, 자조금의 설치 목적 달성을 위한 대책 마련이 시급하다. 연구방법 이 연구에서는 수산자조금을 제외한 농업부문 자조금 전반을 대상으로 자조금의 운영 실태를 파악하고 중장기 정책방향의 설정과 발전단계 등을 감안한 자조금 유형별로 구체적인 제도 개선 방안을 제시하고자 한다. 자조금유형은 의무자조금, 의무자조금 준비단계의 임의자조금, 임의자조금 세 가지로 구분하였다. 기존 선행연구 분석, 자조금단체 방문조사, 외국 자조금제도의 운영방식과 시사점에 대한 분석, 미국 자조금단체 방문조사, 관련 전문가와의 정책토론회를 통한 의견 수렴 등의 방법을 활용하여 연구를 진행하였다. 연구결과 및 시사점 자조금의 운영실태 분석 결과 자조금제도 본연의 취지를 왜곡시킬 수 있는 제도적 결함이 드러났다. 직접 생산자가 아닌 생산자단체만으로 자조금 단체를 결성할 수 있고, 일부 중대농 중심의 자조금 운영이 가능하며, 자조금의 자기 발전동기가 약해서 영세성이 지속될 우려가 있다. 정부와 자조금의 역할 분담 불명확, 자조금에 대한 농가의 낮은 인식도, 자조금의 거출안확립 등의 문제를 바탕으로 자조금제도의 개선방안으로 10가지를 제안하였다. 첫째, 자조금의 정책방향을 ‘자조금 조성의 촉진’에서 ‘자조금의 건실한 발전’으로 전환하도록 한다. 생산자가 조성하는 자조금이 되어야 하며, 모든 부과대상자의 의사가 반영될 수 있는 지배구조를 확립해야 한다. 둘째, 자조금의 발전단계별로 각 유형에 맞는 정책을 추진하도록 한다. 의무자조금 준비단계에 있는 자조금은 설치요건을 개선하고, 임의자조금에 대해서는 생산자의 인식제고와 참여확대에 역점을 둔다. 셋째, 의무자조금의 거출을 정부가 담당하는 방안에 대해서 신중한 검토가 필요하다. 넷째, 자조금의 존폐문제와 같은 중대한 사안에 대해서는 반드시 회원 전원의 투표를 통해 결정하도록 해야 한다. 다섯째, 신문·방송의 직접광고에 정부 보조금 사용을 막는 축산자조금법의 개정이 필요하다. 여섯째, 자조금 관리운영비의 상한선을 법규에 의해 경직적으로 정하기보다 현실적으로 조정할 수 있도록 해야 한다. 일곱째, 임의자조금의 의무자조금화를 촉진하기 위해 임의자조금으로 존속연수가 10년이 넘는 경우 정부 보조금의 지급 수준을 낮추는 것을 고려할 필요가 있다. 여덟째, 품목 성격에 따라 ‘자율적 수급조절’이 의미가 다를 것이므로 이와 관련된 사항은 각 자조금의 정관에 선택적으로 수용토록 해야 한다. 아홉째, 영세자조금의 업무 효율성과 전문성 증진을 위한 공동협력(공동사무실, 회계, 광고회사 등)을 강력히 지도할 필요가 있다. 열째, 자조금 소비촉진 등 성과 제고를 위해 관련 자료의 과학적 관리와 분석을 위한 노력을 강화해야 한다. Background of Research Agricultural checkoff programs have been operating for about 20 years in Korea. They commenced with the purpose of protecting agricultural producers" interests in response to the openness of agricultural markets. Although there is an institutional framework for the checkoff programs, some limitations remain in the operations and management. This study aims to suggest specific measures to improve agricultural checkoff programs in Korea. Method of Research This study deals with whole agricultural checkoff programs, which are subsidized in the form of matching fund by the government, except fisheries checkoff programs. Prior to starting research, we examined the issues of checkoff programs through previous studies. Information and opinions on checkoff programs were collected through visits to checkoff organizations (including the U.S. checkoff boards and offices) and the government sponsored evaluation team which assesses the operations of horticultural checkoff programs. In addition, improvement measures were discussed in the policy forum held by KREI. Research Results and Implications In this study, we suggest ten improvement measures based on the analysis of checkoff programs in Korea and other countries. First, it is time to change the policy direction of checkoff programs from “initiation of checkoff programs” to “"soundness of checkoff programs”. Second, for effective policy implementation, the checkoff programs should be categorized into three groups: mandatory checkoff programs, mandatory checkoff programs in the preparatory phase, and voluntary checkoff programs. Third, for the mandatory checkoff programs, we should carefully consider the advantages and disadvantages of letting the government collect levies. Fourth, continuation or termination of the program should be decided by all members, not by the board of representatives. Fifth, the Livestock Checkoff Act, which prohibits the use of government subsidy for TV or radio advertising, should be revised. Sixth, the ceiling on operating expenses for checkoff programs needs to be flexible to be adjusted if needed. Seventh, to encourage the voluntary checkoff program to move to mandatory program, the rate of government subsidy needs to be lowered for the voluntary programs older than 10 years. Eighth, the “voluntary supply-demand adjustment”, which is one of the functions of the checkoff program stated in the Checkoff Act, should be selectively applicable to individual commodity checkoff program under its article of association, allowing for its unique features. Ninth, cooperation among small checkoff programs will be desirable and needs to be supported by the government for efficient management. Tenth, to improve the performance of the checkoff programs, data management and analyses should be conducted and supervised in a scientific manner.