http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
가리왕산 스키장 건설을 둘러싼 논쟁과 생태관광의 회복력(resilience)에 대한 시스템 사고
전대욱 ( Dae Uk Jeon ),전진형 ( Jin Hyung Chon ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2014 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.15 No.3
This paper deals with system thinking in the resilience of the SES (Social-Ecological Systems) around Mt. Gariwang, located in Jeongseon County, Gangwon Province, in particular with the disturbance that a new ski slope is planned to be built for the PyeongChang 2018 Winter Olympic. It first performs a literature survey and newspaper article search to summarize the controversy with regards to credible environmental and socio-economical impacts of the plan, and then elaborates a series of CLDs (Causal Loop Diagrams) to infer the dynamics of the impacts. The results imply that the natural restoration seems to be hard because the development activities can cause a great deal of damage to the ecosystem mainly due to soil degradation and the mitigation of icy valley effects with water exploitation for making artificial snow and so on. Moreover most of the households near the planned site seem to leave with land compensation, thus more policy efforts are needed to enhance the resilience of the ecosystem and the nearby society based on ecotourism.
전대욱 ( Dae Uk Jeon ),김혜인 ( Hye Ihn Kim ),김건위 ( Kun Wee Kim ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2013 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.14 No.3
Recently, Community Rebuilding Projects (hereinafter CRPs) in Korea have been driven and motivated by community inhabitants by themselves, and highlighted as an alternative approach to overcome the limitation revealed normally in top-down projects of community vitalization by the Government. The CRPs encourage community-lead development because it happens to integrate multiple stakeholders and to help inhabitants to participate in the process of the CRPs by accumulating and enlarging social capital and network among inhabitants, and the social gain consequently raises the efficiency of public investment in revitalizing communities. In this study, the series of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) is to be elaborated and the System-Thinking (ST) approach is to be presented to understand the dynamic characteristics residing in the above development process of rebuilding communities. The ST approach refers to the CLDs analyzing 19 remarkable Korean CRP cases, and leads to a conclusion including some of policy instruments to support the bottom-up CRPs in Korea. This study contributes a theoretical framework to understand the dynamic relation between social capital and community revitalization as well as empirical suggestions to respond to the issues of the CRPs in Korean local governments.
저출산·고령화에 따른 지역발전의 영향과 향후 대책 : 일본 로컬아베노믹스와 지방창생전략의 시사점
전대욱 ( Jeon Dae Uk ) 한국지방행정연구원 2017 地方行政硏究 Vol.31 No.1
최근 국내에서 수행된 인구통계적 혹은 경제학적 변화에 대한 분석과 예측결과는 한국이 전례없던 인구감소의 위기에 직면하고 있음을 경고하고 있다. 소위 일컬어지는 `인구절벽`은 유효수요의 부족이나 노동인구의 감소 등과 같이 국가적 혹은 거시경제적 충격을 초래할뿐만 아니라, 낙후 지역의 소멸과 함께 중심 지역의 쇠퇴를 동반하여 지역의 지속가능성에 큰 영향을 미치는 위기로 귀결된다. 따라서 향후 국가와 지방자치단체는 이에 대응하는 정책을 어떻게 펼쳐나갈 것인가를 보다 신중하게 논의해야 할 시점에 접어들었다. 본 논문은 국가 및 지방자치단체에서 저출산·고령화에 대응하기 위한 적절한 지역발전 정책의 방향과 수단을 논의하는 시론적 목적을 지닌다. 이를 위해 유사한 경험을 지닌 일본의 로컬 아베노믹스와 지방창생전략 등 국가 및 지자체의 지역발전을 위한 경제적, 사회적, 물리적 측면의 정책을 리뷰하며, 그 시사점을 중심으로 향후 대응방향을 제시하고자 한다. 저자는 본 논문을 통해 저출산·고령화에 대한 지역발전 정책에 대한 범부처적 대응이 시급하나, 지역특성에 맞고 지역적으로 차별화된 접근 하에서 지역발전 이외의 정책과 시너지를 창출하는 것이 필요하며, 특히 저출산·고령화를 비롯한 뉴노멀 시대에 맞는 새로운 정책으로서 다핵적 지역생태계의 협력적 거버넌스 구축에 의한 지역회복력의 제고가 필요함을 강조한다. In Korea there have been increasing warning signs of a demographic cliff asserted by recent demographic and economic studies. The so-called “cliff” is normally believed to lead unprecedented impacts to the national economy such as consumption and labor drops. The cliff is furthermore regarded as a trigger for local extinction that implies the disappearance of rural localities that eventually causes the decline of central cities. It is thus urgent that the central government and local authorities in Korea prudently discuss how and what to respond against low fertility and longevity. This paper aims at providing a rich discussion of and helping central and local administrators to find an appropriate direction and instruments of local development policy toward prosperity under low fertility and aging societies in Korea. The author reviews the case of “Local Abenomics” a n d “Regional Rehabilitation Strategy” in Japan, and also argues that people should consider local development policy to be driven centrally with a strong political leadership, applied locally with relevance to local characteristics, and operated collaboratively with policies of other aims, and that building polycentric governance systems of localities seems to be necessary to enhance local and community resilience in a New-Normal time such as the phenomenon of low fertility and aging society in Korea.
시스템의 회복성에 대한 이론적 검토와 시스템 다이내믹스 방법론의 적용
전대욱 ( Dae Uk Jeon ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2013 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.14 No.2
The concept of resilience in complex and adaptive socio-economic systems, has been a buzz word in international societies and academies related to policy makers for sustainable development since some years ago. This paper deals with an application of the resilient concept, which has been told since the last some decades in the field of ecology and applied system sciences, to social science especially in system dynamics. First the author introduces the concept of equilibrium stability and resilience in simple dynamic models, and moreover provides the behavioral characteristics and examples of system resilience in terms of system dynamics. The concept of resilience in structural perspectives are also discussed with the topics of panarchy and adaptive renewal cycles, etc.
전대욱 ( Dae Uk Jeon ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2011 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.12 No.1
This article deals with an economic evalutation of the ``Pasture Project of Kum River``, which is the farming plan of mitten crabs in a stream of it. An augmented model of social capital is based on the past ecological-economic system dynamics model and elaborated further with suggestions of social capital literature. During the modeling process a chain diagram of causal relations and its relevant mathematical equations are presented for simulating the project performance, and the simulation results are provided to contrast the dynamic behaviors of the former ecological-economic model with ones of the new model incorporating social capital. The results indicate that an increase in the economic benefit of the project could happen in case of considering the process of social capital accumulation around the case area, which can be regarded as a remarkable trial to approve the common confidence in the role of social capital to enhance an economic achievement.
제주도 노루의 개체수 관리를 위한 확장적 피식-포식모형의 적용에 관한 연구
전대욱 ( Dae Uk Jeon ),김도훈 ( Doa Hoon Kim ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2011 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.12 No.2
This paper aims at developing a System Dynamics model with an augmented predator-prey interaction structure to deal with the population management of roe deer in Jeju, Korea. Although people still regard the creature as one of the important tourist attractions, there has been much debate on the issues of the appropriateness of the population size of roe deers because they have been stigmatized as crop damagers, and roadkill/poaching victims due to their natural habit to move around from the top mountain to the lowland of the island. The model is therefore to incorporate these migrating and grazing behaviors into an augmented Lotka-Volterra model coupling roe deer population in both parts of the island to that of predators and preys of the species. The authors also provide a comprehensive set of dynamic hypotheses and relevant CLD/SFD to understand the population dynamics of roe deer and co-evolving species and perform the steady-state analysis of the proposed equation system to verify the model behavior of the numerical example lastly presented in this paper.
동적 균형상태를 중심으로 본 금강 지천의 참게자원 분석
전대욱 ( Dae Uk Jeon ),저희성 ( Hoi Seong Jeong ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2010 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.11 No.1
This article deals with an ecological-economic analysis of the Pasture Project of Rum River`, which is the fanning plan of mitten crabs using Jichun, a stream of the River Kum where the natural propagation of mitten crabs are blocked because of the estuary dam constructed in 1990. Toward analyzing the ecological and economic effects of the crab releasing and harvesting activities in Jichun, a two-stage cohort model of population dynamics with cannibalistic behaviors and density restrictions in biomathematics is adopted, despite of the current infertility in Kum, considering the opportunity of establishing dam fishways in the near future. This study moreover presents a method of parameter estimation especially with assuming a steady state of the ecosystem, and performs various analyses such as the risk measurement of climate change and the economic value of such fishways.