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임병호(Byeong-Ho Lim),조정란(Jun-Ran Cho) 한국관세학회 2021 관세학회지 Vol.22 No.3
As the RCEP adopts the flag state jurisdiction principle, it is expected that the EEZ(exclusive economic zone) will give a new meaning to RCEP member’s fisheries trade. Analysis method includes scenarios to give an exogenous shock to the endowment factors related to the EEZ. Since the adoption of the RCEP flag state jurisdiction would reduce the scope of the EEZ with the existing territorial waters, a scenario of reducing the land of the CGE model was established. As a result of the analysis, values and volumes in exports of all countries including China increased except Korea, which demonstrates that reduction in land (EEZ) has a greater effect on exports than increase in capital. Korea’s imports increased in all scenarios, but the increase in imports to compensate for the decrease in domestic production caused by the reducing EEZ has greater impacts on fisheries sector than import demand decrease resulting from more domestic capital input. Although RCEP flag state jurisdiction would bring both opportunity and risk factors, the opportunity should be emphasized for countries that could promote fishery activities in EEZs of other countries.
진병진(Byung-Jin Jin),임병호(Byeong-ho Lim),유정호(Jeong-ho Yoo) 한국관세학회 2016 관세학회지 Vol.17 No.4
The purpose of this study is to analyze whether the introduction of cross-cumulation leads to a substantial economic effect by analyzing the cross-cumulation applied to improve the effectiveness of the FTA. For this purpose, we analyzed the economic effect of cross-cumulation, which was concluded by Canada utilizing the PPML gravity model, based on the trade statistics of Canada. In particular, for the purpose of analysis, trade goods are classified into processed goods (finished products) and basic materials(intermediate goods), we tested how the intra-FTA trade flow appears in processed goods, and how the effect of increasing imports of intermediate goods from the FTA partner countries that are common to both countries appears in basic material, in the form of trade creation and diversion. As a result, it can be concluded that the introduction of cross-cumulation in Canadas basic textile material has effects of trade creation, but negative effects of trade diversion is more pronounced, which offset the effect of trade creation. This result alone, however, can not be assured that cross-cumulation does not positively affect the effectiveness of FTA. The reason is that Canadas cross-cumulation period is short, and the global financial crisis in 2008 has changed the world trade system. In terms of the spaghetti bowl effects due to complexity and differentiation between FTA agreements, resulting from fifteen FTAs with fifty-two countries including the Korea-Canada FTA in effect, and utilizing the global value chain in production stage, it is time to discuss about introducing cross-cumulation in Korea.