로짓모형과 오차수정모형을 이용한 아파트가격 상승확률 예측

배영균(Bae, Young Kyun) 대한부동산학회 2015 大韓不動産學會誌 Vol.33 No.2

This paper predicts the probability of apartment price increase in Seoul by using a Logit & Error Correction Model. In order to analyze the Error Correction Model, market equilibrium prices are estimated by using a reduced-form equation arising from the equilibrium condition of demand and supply. The results suggest that the estimated market equilibrium prices equation fits the data very well and variables in the equation are statistically significant at the 1% level. For analyzing the short-run dynamic features of apartment prices, the Error Correction Model is built and estimated. The Error Correction Model uses the estimates of the market equilibrium prices from the first-stage. The empirical results show that apartment prices exhibit a strong serial correlation, 0.355 and the rate of mean reversion is 0.251. Those independent variables in the Error Correction Model are, then, used for independent variables in the Logit model to predict the probability of price increase. Dependent variable(Y) in the Logit Model is apartment price changes. If the price increse, the value of Y is 1 and if decrease, Y is 0.

연구논문(硏究論文) : 공적분검정을 통한 서울지역 아파트가격 거품 검정

배영균 ( Young Kyun Bae ) 한국세무회계학회 2011 세무회계연구 Vol.0 No.28

공급시차 등 주택시장의 내재적 특성으로 인하여 주택가격은 거품이 생성될 수 있는 속성을 지니고 있다. 본 연구에서는 공적분검정법을 이용하여 서울지역 아파트가격에 대한 거품검정을 실시하였다. 검정결과 서울지역 아파트 실질매매가격과 가격조정모형에 입각한 아파트가격 추정치사이에 공적분관계가 존재하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 서울지역 아파트가격은 거품이 지속되지 않았으며, 설명 가능한 메커니즘에 의해 결정되었다는 것을 의미한다. 표본기간 동안 서울지역 아파트의 실제매매가격과 시장균형가격과의 차이 즉, 총 편차는 평균적으로 0.98%이었으며, 이 편차 중 가격조정모형에 의해서 설명된 부분이 0.90%, 가격조정모형에 의해 설명되지 않는 부분은 0.08%였다. 즉, 서울의 경우 실제매매가격과 시장균형가격과의 차이 중 대부분이 부동산시장에 내재된 마찰에서 야기된 순환변동에 기인한다는 것을 알 수 있었다. 총 편차가 주로 가격거품에 기인한다면 양도소득세 중과 등 자본이득에 대한 과대한 기대를 낮추는 정책이 필요하겠지만, 가격변동의 대부분이 순환변동에서 야기되었다면 토지이용규제 완화, 정보보급과 투명성 증대 등 순환변동의 폭과 빈도를 줄이는 정책이 바람직할 것이다. This paper analyzes the long-run and short-run dynamic properties of apartment prices in Seoul and tests whether there have been sustainable apartment price bubbles or not. In order to analyze the long-run dynamic characteristics of apartment prices, market equilibrium prices are estimated by using a reduced-form equation arising from the equilibrium condition of demand and supply. For analyzing the short-run dynamic features of apartment prices, a price adjustment model is built and estimated on the standpoints of serial correlation and mean reversion. Those parts of prices that cannot be explained by the long-run and short-run models are treated as price bubbles, and the existence of price bubbles is tested by cointegration tests. The breakdown analysis quantifies the cyclical and bubble components of apartment price deviation from their fundamental values. In Seoul, the gap between actual and fundamental values was 0.98%, and mainly driven by the cyclical component due to intrinsic housing market frictions. The null hypothesis that there is no cointegration relationship between the actual prices and estimated prices obtained by the price adjustment model was rejected. Which means that during the sample period in Seoul, the movements of apartment price can be largely explained by the long-run and short-run models, and there have been no sustainable apartment price bubbles. This result is consistent with the one of the breakdown analysis.

전세가격 변동요인과 서민주거 안정정책

배영균(Bae, Young-Kyun) 대한부동산학회 2016 大韓不動産學會誌 Vol.34 No.2

본 연구에서는 DiPasquale-Wheaton-Colwel 정태모형(DWC모형)을 이용하여 시행 가능한 모든 부동산정책들의 결과를 예측하였으며, 선행연구 고찰과 DWC모형을 이용한 이론적 결과를 통하여 서민주거 안정을 위한 정책과제들을 발굴하였다. DWC모형을 이용하여 부동산정책들의 결과를 예측한 결과, 수요확대정책에서는 주택보유세 인하, 소비금융 완화, 부동산금융시장 정비 및 활성화가, 공급확대정책에서는 택지와 기반시설 공급 확충, 임대주택 건설 확충, 건설금융 완화, 개발규제 완화 정책이 서민주거 안정을 위하여 주택 임대료를 하락 시킬 수 있는 정책대안으로 나타났다. 토지보유세 강화는 경제순손실이 작고 임차인에게 전가되지 않아 바람직할 수도 있지만, 주택보유세 강화는 주택시장을 위축시키며, 막대한 경제적순손실을 야기할 수 있다. 수도권에서 지역･지구제는 보다 완화되는 방향으로 규제를 합리화하는 한편, 지역발전은 지방이 주도하고 중앙정부가 지원하는 별도의 정책으로 접근해야 한다. 정부는 일반적으로 정부의 역할이 인정되는 영역을 넘어서서 부동산의 개발, 소유, 거래, 이용에 광범위하게 개입하였다. 부동산정책은 시장 친화적 정책이어야 한다. DiPasquale and Wheaton(DW) developed an elegant model of long-run equilibrium in the aggregate real estate market. It has tremendous pedagogical power and an attractive compactness of presentation. Unfortunately, however, it has drawbacks. The DW model does not reveal long-run equilibrium at a glance; instead, equilibrium must be found by trial and error. A Few years later, Colwell added to the model several new devices to remove all of the drawbacks. In this study, using DiPasquale-Wheaton-Colwell static model(DWC model), the results of all feasible real estate policy challenges are explored. Through its theoretical results of the DWC model and consideration of advanced research, several housing stabilization policies toward middle and low income classes are proposed. Possible policy packages such as housing property tax cuts, an appeasement policy of consumer finance, reorganization & activation of real estate financial markets in the policies for increasing demand, and supply expansion of residential land & infrastructure, expansion of rental housing construction, an appeasement policy of construction finance, development deregulation in the policies for increasing supply are suggested.

건설지식정보의 유효성 검증 및 관리 모델에 관한 연구

배영균(Bae, Young-Kyun),박문서(Park, Moonseo),이현수(Lee, Hyun-Soo),송권식(Song, Kwonsik) 대한건축학회 2015 대한건축학회 학술발표대회 논문집 Vol.2015 No.-

주택공급의 가격탄력성과 주택가격 변동성

배영균(Bae, Young-Kyun) 대한부동산학회 2012 大韓不動産學會誌 Vol.30 No.1

주택수요가 변화할 때 주택공급의 탄력성은 주택가격수준과 주택가격의 변동성에 영향을 준다. 같은 크기의 수요 충격일지라도 공급이 탄력적이면 가격파동이 상대적으로 적다. 본 연구에서는 주택공급의 가격탄력성 추정을 위하여 먼저 신규주택허가량을 이번기와 전기의 주택가격 변화분 및 건축비용 변화분의 함수로 가정하고 주택공급함수를 추정하였으며 또한, Malpezzi & Maclennan(2001)에 의하여 정립된 저량조정모형을 추정하였다. 추정결과 수도권 주택공급의 가격탄력성은 0.3으로서 가격변화에 대하여 대체적으로 비탄력적이었으나, 지방 5대도시의 탄력성은 3.6으로서 수도권지역에 비하여 훨씬 탄력적인 것으로 나타났다. 일반적으로 공급의 가격탄력성이 낮을수록 주택가격의 변동성은 더 커지는 경향을 보인다. Since one of the possible reasons for the difference of regional dynamic properties of prices is the supply-side, regional housing supply functions are estimated and the price elasticities of regional house supply are compared. In the stock adjustment model, a market equilibrium equation is first estimated by using quarterly data. The results suggest that the sample regression line fits the data very well and all variables in the equation have the expected signs and are statistically significant at least at the 10% level. The second-stage of analysis uses the estimates of the equilibrium prices from the first-stage. The empirical results show that the price elasticity of the housing supply in five local large cities is 3.6 which is far more than the price elasticity of the capital areas, which is 0.3.

메치실린 내성 황색포도상구균 세균성 심내막염에 의한 패혈성 폐색전증

이기종 ( Ki Jong Lee ),김나영 ( Nha Young Kim ),김자선 ( Ja Seon Kim ),윤한결 ( Han Kyeol Yun ),오미정 ( Mi Jung Oh ),김도훈 ( Do Hoon Kim ),조상균 ( Sang Kyun Cho ),류한영 ( Han Young Ryu ),배영아 ( Young A Bae ),김대봉 ( Dae Bon 대한결핵 및 호흡기학회 2010 Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases Vol.69 No.2

Septic pulmonary embolism is the process in which an infected thrombus becomes detached from its site of origin and lodges in a pulmonary artery, and is usually associated with infective endocarditis, especially right-sided, or infection-associated with indwelling catheters, peripheral septic thrombophlebitis, and periodontal diseases, etc. Here, we report a case of septic pulmonary embolism associated with tricuspid valve infective endocarditis. A 23-year-old female was admitted to our hospital, due to fever, sore throat, and myalgia. In her past medical history, she had undergone a surgical operation for closure of a ventricular septal defect, but was informed that the operation resulted in an incomplete closure. The initial chest radiograph demonstrated multiple rounded, parenchymal nodules in various sizes; several nodules had central lucency suggesting cavitations. Echocardiography demonstrated a large vegetation attached to the septal tricuspid valve leaflet, extending from right ventricular inflow tract to outflow tract. Computed tomography of thorax revealed bilateral peripheral nodules and wedge-shaped consolidation at various sizes, mostly accompanied by cavitations.

글로벌 기자재 조달 지식정보은행

주선우(Joo, Seon U),이현수(Lee, Hyun-Soo),박문서(Park, Moon Seo),이보경(Lee, Bo Gyeong),배영균(Bae, Young-Kyun),김준영(Kim, Jun Young),임호환(Lim, Ho Hwan) 대한토목학회 2016 대한토목학회 학술대회 Vol.2016 No.10

企業의 引受·合倂去來時 對象企業의 價値評價

배영균 順天靑巖大學 1997 論文集-順天靑巖大學 Vol.21 No.2

Various methods can be used form computing a company's worth, but no set formula exists. It is obvious that valuation is subjective, depending on both what the business is worth to the buyer and on external influences such as economic outlook, company position, financial strength, and management. The most commonly used methods for evaluating the worth of businesses are Asset Valuation, Stock Price Valuation, Relative Price Valuation, and Discounted Cash Flow Method. In the Asset Valuation method, companies are evaluated by their assets. Assets are significant only as they enable a company to manufacture and sell products or services that generate profits. This profitability is reflected in book value, reproduction value, and liquidation value. The value of corporation whose stocks are actively traded on the major exchanges is determined continuously by the investing public. Quoted prices on stock exchanges, usually define the current worth of a company. Another widely used approach is to compare a private company's worth to a similar public corporation or group of corporations in the same industry. Though the above methods are helpful tools for valuation, the Discounted Cash Flow Method seems to be the most effective methods. Two steps are used in the Discounted Cash Flow Method. First, you estimate a company's future earning, based on both its past experience and future probabilities. Second, you discount these earnings at an expected discount rate. In this article, the most commonly used methods are studied and H Auto Co. Ltd. is evaluated by the most seemmingly effective method - Discounted Cash Flow Method.

기업의 재무 건전성 예측

배영균,김인식 順天靑巖大學 2000 論文集-順天靑巖大學 Vol.24 No.-

This Paper presents some empirical results of a study predicting corporate failure as evidenced by the event of bankruptcy. There have been a fair number of previous studies in this field of research; Beaver(1966), Altman(1968, 1973, 1976) and Ohlson(1980) etc., This study is similar to the Ohlson' study, in that the methodology is one of maximum likelihood estimation of the so called logit model. The financial data set used from KISFAS during 1992 to 1999. And the data is analized by a statistical package, SPSS. The major findings of the study can be summarized as follows. It was possible to identify four basic factors as being statistically significant in affecting the probability of failure within one year. These are : (i) TLTA, a measure of debt; (ii) NITA, a measure of earnnings; (iii) INTWO, a measure of net income; (iv) CHIN, a measure of net liquidity. The probabilistic model estimated is, P(Y_1=1 | Xi) = F(Xi, β_0) = 1 / (1+e^-xβ) = e^xβ / (1+e^xβ) Where, Xβ = -4.0581 - .0024 SIZE + 1.7574 TLTA + .3058 WCTA - .1386 CLCA + 1.1661 OENEG - .4834 NITA + .1649 FUTL + .4088 INTOW - .0017 CHIN P(Y_i=0 | Xi) = 1 - P(Y_i= | Xi) The model is relatively simple to apply and may be of use in practical applications. A potential disadvantage is that the model does not utilize any market transactions data of firms. One may expect that the predictive power of the model could be enhanced by incorporating such data as stock prices, βcoefficient and excess rate of return.

미분게임(Differential Games)과 전략적 의사결정

배영균 順天靑巖大學 2001 論文集-順天靑巖大學 Vol.25 No.-

One of the primary tools that economists use to study strategic choices is formal game theory. This subject was originally developed during the 1920s and grew rapidly during World War Ⅱ. Today the theory has applicability to problems as diverse as the development of optimal strategies for five card stud poker to the analysis of antimissile defenses. Fundamentally, game theory modeling seeks to portray complex strategic situations in a highly simplified and stylized setting. Much like other models in the social sciences, game theory models abstract from most of the personal and institutional details of a problem in order to arrive at a representation of the situation that is mathematically tractable. The tools of game theory have relevance to many kinds of choices of strategy in uncertain situations. In this paper, some of the concepts associated with the modern theory of games are mentioned. Expecially, some examples of differential games are briefly introduced in a little bit rigorous way.