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박원란,정지원,박희창,이석훈,Park, War-Lan,Jung, Ji-Won,Park, Hui-Chang,Lee, Suk-Hoon 한국통계학회 2009 응용통계연구 Vol.22 No.3
각종 정책 및 계획은 시행시기에 따라 그 효과가 반감되거나, 오히려 역효과를 낼 수 있기 때문에 아무리 좋은 정책이나 계획이라 하더라도 시행의 시기가 적절해야 하므로 시행 시기가 적기인지 아닌지를 판단하는 것은 중요하다. 본 논문에서는 정책의 수립시기 판단이 지연됨에 따라 초래된 상황의 심각성을 인구 정책의 사례를 통하여 두 가지의 방법으로 논의하여 본다. 하나는 1983년의 상황으로 돌아가서 그 당시 통계를 이용하여 제시할 수 있는 제안들과 그 결과들을 유도하여 현재의 상황과 차이를 도출하여 보는 것이다. 다른 하나는 현재까지 나타난 결과로부터 1983년 이후 시행된 인구 억제 정책이 중지되었다면 나타날수 있었던 상황들을 가상적인 시나리오를 세워 시뮬레이션 하여 현실과의 차이를 검토하여 본다. All the policies and plans need to be carried out at the proper times in order that they would work properly for what they are made for. It is will known that statistics are one of the most useful tools in deciding the proper times for the policies. In this paper we show how to use statistics in evaluating the policies already carried with respect to the time when they were executed in dealing with the population policy we had in 1983 when the total fertility rate hit the population replacement level 2.1. Two methods have been tried to show that the policy carried in 1983 missed the proper changing time. The one is to make forecasting only with the data possible before 1982 and show how close they can be to the real situation of today. The other is to show what would happen if the policies aiming to suppress population growth had been changed or abandoned. Both results from two methods give some quantified information about the population policy of 1983. Especially the prediction tells that we could have forecasted the problem of low fertility of this century in 1983.
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이승수,박원란,정성석,Lee, Seung Soo,Park, Won Ran,Chung, Sung Suk 한국데이터정보과학회 2017 한국데이터정보과학회지 Vol.28 No.2
조사를 통한 자료생성은 시간과 경제적인 제약이 많고, 조사 방법 및 특성에 따라 자료의 질이 결정되며, 수집된 조사정보를 통계정보로 활용하기까지 오랜 시간이 소요된다. 이와 같은 어려움을 줄이고자 조사 표본설계 단위 보다 작은 지역 또는 다른 영역에 대한 자료를 기존에 조사된 자료 및 행정자료를 이용하여 추정하는 소지역추정 통계방법 활용 연구는 꾸준히 진행되고 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 소지역추정기법을 이용하여 인간이 기본적인 삶을 영위하는데 반드시 필요한 필수재이며, 동시에 우리나라에서 투자재로서의 특징을 나타내는 주택과 관련하여, 요즈음 새로운 주거형태를 차지하는 전세와 월세 지수에 모형기반 소지역추정기법을 적용하고자 한다. 적용된 소지역추정 모형은 회귀모형 추정법, 계층적 베이지안 추정법, 시-공간적 추정법이며, 분석결과 전세와 월세에서 시-공간적 추정모형이 가장 효율적인 것으로 나타났다. In this study we compared three models for small area estimation, Fay-Herriot, Hierarchical Bayses model and spatio-temporal model about charter, monthly rent price index. Charter, monthly rent price of Korea are important issue in these days. Because housing type rapidly changes from self to charter and monthly rent. The accuracy of the estimation was checked on four scales, that is ARB, ASRB, AAB, ASD. In this result, the spatio-temporal model among applied models has most optimal scales about small area estimation of charter and monthly rent index.
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김영순,길수민,윤민기,박중양,최덕재,박원란,임규채,이은진 경남발전연구원 2011 중점정책연구 Vol.2011 No.-
This study is to activate economic statistics, to integrate the existing economic indicators and to develop the Leading Composite Indexes of business indicators in Gyeongnam, province. That is, this study aims to develop Leading Composite Index; Leading CI using economic indicators in Gyeongnam and to use the index for business forecasting, so-called a diffusion index which helps us interpret composite indexes of the Business Cycle Indicators accurately. The Leading CI in Gyeongnam will be a follow-up of Coincident Composite Index which has been already developed in our study. Also, this study tries to find some ways to use the Leading CI as a model for forecasting phase or trend of business condition in the near future. In chapter 2 status of statistics compiled in Gyeongnam are analysed and found some related problems. In chapter 3, the way how Leading Composite Indexes of business indicators has been developed is covered. Chapter 4 is covering the result and the way how the Leading CI could be used. Eight economic indicators are selected as the final economic indicators for developing Leading CI in Gyeongnam. The eight indicators are opening-toapplication ratio, inventory cycle indicator, building area, shipment index of intermediate materials, the amount of imports of capital goods, net barter terms of trade(nationwide), loans and discounts of deposit money bank, and composite stock price index. Compared with Cycle Variation Value of Coincident Composite Index in Gyeongnam, that of Leading CI proceeds by 10 months compared on the same period from a year ago. This allows us to forecast the current economic trend and the economic trend in the near future. Mean Absolute Percentage Error was used to find out how well the model using Leading CI can predict business conditions and trends. I have suggested two business conditions forecast models in analysis; one is a regression model of which dependent variable is Coincident CI and independent variable is Leading CI, and the other is a regression model where Coincident CI Cycle Variation Value is a dependent variable and Leading CI year-to-year is an independent variable. Since MAPE from the two models was low, it is suggested that the prediction is relatively accurate. Pattern of Leading CI comparing to the same period from a years ago passes by trough in May, 2009 and continues through expansion phase until the first half year of 2010 and it reaches peak and the contraction phase continues until 2011. It is expected that there will be a tendency for business to drop for the first half of the next year for a while. This study suggests a model where GRDP growth rate in Gyeongnam is dependent variable and Leading CI in Gyeongnam is independent variable. This model will boost economic growth rate. This model also can be used for predicting economic outlook for next year, or the first half year or the second half year of the next year.
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