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경과년수와 용적률의 상호작용을 고려한 아파트 가격 형성 분석
김천일 한국감정원 2018 부동산분석 Vol.4 No.1
A capital gain from housing reconstruction is determined by unit pre-sale price, unit construction cost, permitted floor area ratio, and developed floor area ratio. The higher the permitted floor area ratio and the lower the developed floor area ratio, the higher the potential gain from housing reconstruction. Thus, all other things being equal, expected gains from the reconstruction of apartments of lower developed floor area ratios will become larger, and the economic service life of the apartments will be shortened further. Although previous studies recognized the impact of the developed floor area ratio on the capital gain expected from reconstruction, they failed to empirically analyze that the economic service life of housing may vary depending on the levels of floor area ratios. Even in the case of apartments of the same age, if the developed floor area ratio approaches the permitted floor area ratio, it is likely that housing price is relatively low because project feasibility is lowered as there is little room for constructing housing for general pre-sale other than for the existing housing owner. Hence, this study analyzes the price of housing that has the latent expectation for the possibility of reconstruction, taking into account the interaction of age and floor area ratio. As a result of the analysis, it was found that if the developed floor area ratio gets higher, the expectation for the possibility of reconstruction happens later. Therefore, as for an area where the supply of apartments was concentrated at a specific period, or a large high-density apartment complex of comparatively poor location conditions, the problem may occur that when the housing becomes so superannuated that it requires reconstruction, the superannuation will last for a long time unless reconstruction project feasibility is guaranteed. 재건축에 의한 개발이익은 단위 분양가, 단위 사업비, 계획 용적률, 현재 용적률에 의해 결정된다. 계획 용적률이 높고 현재 용적률이 낮을수록 잠재 개발이익은 커지게 되므로 동일한 조건이라면 현재 용적률이 낮은 아파트에 대한 재건축 기대 이윤이 더 커질 것이므로 경제적 내용년수는 더욱 짧아지게 될 것이다. 기존 연구들은 현재 용적률이 재건축 기대 이윤에 미칠 영향을 인지함에도 불구하고 주택의 경제적 내용년수가 용적률의 수준에 달라질 수 있음을 실증분석을 통해 보여주지 못했다. 경과년수가 동일한 아파트라 할지라도현재의 용적률이 허용 용적률의 수준과 근접하면 기존 주택 소유자를 포함한 후 일반 분양분을 건설할 여지가 없기 때문에 사업성이 떨어지게 되므로 아파트의 가격이 상대적으로 낮을 가능성이 존재한다. 이에 본 연구는 이러한 경과년수와 용적률의 상호작용을 고려하여 재건축 심리가 잠재된 아파트 가격을 분석한다. 분석 결과 현재 용적률이 높으면 재건축 기대 심리의 시점이 늦춰지는 것으로 나타났다. 그러므로 특정 시기에 아파트 공급이 집중적으로 이루어진 지역, 입지 여건이 상대적으로 열악한 대규모, 고밀도의 아파트 단지의 경우 향후 재건축이 필요할 정도로 주택이 노후화가 되었을 때 재건축 사업성이 담보되지 않으면 주택이 장기 노후화되는 문제가 발생할 수 있다.
공공임대주택 선호의 지역간 차이: 임의절편로짓모형을 이용한 실증분석
김천일,최막중 대한국토·도시계획학회 2007 國土計劃 Vol.42 No.2
This paper tests empirically whether there is a region-specific difference in preference for public housing by applying random intercept logit model, a basic form data in which households are clustered into 39 regions in the Seoul metropolitan area. Estimation results verify that low-income households' preference for public housing varies depending not only on household characteristics at level 1, but also on the region where they reside currently or wish to live in the future at level 2. The pa nce is relatively concentrated on the old central area by estimating the probability that low-income households choose to live in public housing by region. As regional distribution of public housing that the government oficially allocates does not reflect regional variation of the probability, however, it suggests that public housing policy meet s traditionally focused solely on increasing the stock through large-scaled land development in urban fringe area..
김천일 한국도시부동산학회 2018 도시부동산연구 Vol.9 No.2
After the Korean government initiated the provision of the permanent public rental housing in 1989, there has been a variety of policy measures to provide decent housing for low-income households. As of 2009, the ratio of the public rental housing to the total housing became 4.8 percent. It is widely agreed that the nation needs to build more public housing and to target a wider range of the types of households. However, the expansion of such development projects has resulted in worries and oppositions in the impacted neighborhoods, which have insisted that such developments bring about negative impacts on the adjacent neighborhoods. This study explores the impact of recently developed public rental housing (“Kukmin” rental housing) on the nearby housing markets. The paper adopts a quasi-experimental design to deal with the possible endogeneity for the construction of public rental housing by adopting an extended treatment to the canonical difference-in-difference method. This research finds that the public housing projects increase the value of surrounding properties.