RCP 시나리오별 한반도 가뭄특성 분석

김정호,김상단,주진걸,Kim, Jungho,Kim, Sangdan,Joo, Jingul 한국수자원학회 2016 한국수자원학회논문집 Vol.49 No.4

본 연구에서는 RCP 시나리오별 표준가뭄지수의 특성을 정량적인 측면과 공간적인 측면에서 상호비교 하였다. 이를 위해, 4개의 RCP 시나리오로부터 산정된 SPI를 기반으로 가뭄 특성을 정량적으로 비교하였고, 가뭄발생 횟수와 지속기간을 공간적으로 분석하였다. 결과적으로, RCP 시나리오별 SPI의 거동 특성은 매우 상이하고, 모든 상관계수가 0.08보다 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 또한 가뭄의 정도, 발생횟수, 그리고 지속기간에 대한 상이한 공간분포 경향을 확인할 수 있었다. RCP 시나리오별 상이한 가뭄발생전망 특성의 가장 큰 배경은 다른 온실가스 배출농도 시나리오 기반의 일 강수량을 들 수 있으나, 온실가스 배출농도 규모에 따른 영향은 명확하지 않았다. 아울러, 본 연구 결과를 통해 단일 RCP 시나리오 자료만 이용한 가뭄발생 전망에는 상당한 불확실성이 따를 것으로 판단된다. This study implemented a comparison of SPI characteristics in terms of quantitative and spatial analysis depending on four RCP scenarios. For this purpose, we compared quantitative characteristics of drought using standard precipitation index resulted from daily precipitation data reflecting future green gas concentration scenarios, and spatial distribution field of seasonal drought occurrence frequency and its duration, was analyzed to compare drought trends depending on the RCP scenarios. As a result, we found that SPI time series was quite different from each other and correlation coefficients were lower than 0.08. Depending on the RCP scenarios, spatial distribution results showed different trends in drought severity, frequency, and duration. The biggest reason of the difference is daily precipitation data based on the different greenhouse gas concentrations, but we could not find the effect of the concentration extent on drought occurrence projection. In addition, according to the results from this study, drought analysis results using single RCP scenario may have considerable uncertainty.

재조합 소성장호르몬의 전체 아미노산 서열분석을 위한 2 차원 고성능 액체 크로마토그래피법에 관한 연구

김정호,김훈주,김준 ( Jungho Kim,Hoon Joo Kim,Joon Kim ) 생화학분자생물학회 1992 BMB Reports Vol.25 No.3

In order to separate and purify tryptic digested recombinant bST (rbST), 2-dimensional HPLC which involves a combination of strong cation-exchange chromatography and reverse-phase chromatography was applied. A single dimension RP-HPLC resulted in several heterogeneous peaks. However, all fractions purified by two-dimensional chromatogrphy resulted in homogeneous peptides and unambiguous sequence data. With a view of separating perfectly, tryptic digest was first fractionated by strong cation-exchange chromatogrphy. The nine fractions were obtained from this chromatogrphy and each of these fractions was applied to RP-HPLC. Fractions yielded from RP-HPLC were submitted for direct sequence analysis and clear sequence data were obtained. In this study, the location of disulfide bonds, Cys53-Cys164 and Cys181-Cys189, also were confirmed in rbST.

육아휴직 지원과 여성의 노동공급

김정호,Kim, Jungho 한국개발연구원 2012 韓國 開發 硏究 Vol.34 No.1

최근 근로자의 일과 가정생활의 균형을 도모하기 위한 방안으로 육아휴직 지원제도의 확대가 필요하다는 주장이 종종 제기되고 있다. 그러나 육아휴직의 이용은 출산 후 고용의 연속성을 보장함과 동시에 개인의 인적자본을 감퇴시켜 장기적으로 근로활동을 저해할 수 있다는 점에서 보다 세심한 접근이 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 지난 2001년에 도입된 육아휴직급여제도의 단계적인 확대가 여성의 제도 이용률과 근로 연속성을 증진시켰는지를 조사하였다. 분석 결과, 육아휴직급여의 증액이 여성근로자의 육아휴직 이용률을 증가시킨 것으로 나타났다. 또한 육아휴직급여의 증가로 인해 출산 후 노동시장 복귀율이 단기적으로는 낮아졌으나, 장기적으로는 부정적인 효과의 크기가 줄어드는 경향이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 동일 직장으로의 복귀 가능성에 대한 부정적인 효과는 장기적으로도 지속되는 것으로 확인되었다. 추가적으로 육아휴직급여의 증가로 인해 사업장 단위에서 가임기 여성근로자의 비중이 변하였다는 증거를 발견하지 못하였다. 이러한 결과는, 고용보험 피보험자 자격을 동반한 근로활동만을 분석했다는 한계점이 존재하나, 여성의 경제활동 참여를 장려하기 위한 정책수단으로서 육아휴직급여 확대는 실효성이 없음을 암시한다. 한편, 육아휴직제도의 보다 포괄적인 평가를 위해서는 여성의 고용안정뿐만 아니라 아동의 발달 측면에서의 분석이 필요하므로 이 분야에 대한 정책적 관심이 요구된다. It is often argued that the parental leave should be extended in order to help employees achieve the balance of work and family life. However, one should be careful in designing the parental leave since there is a tradeoff between the continuity of employment after childbearing and the depreciation of human capital due to the time off the work. The paper investigates whether the parental leave payment introduced in Korea in 2001 helped women's take-up of the leave and employment after giving birth. The results are as follows. First, the increase in the payment indeed raised the female take-up of the leave. Second, women returned to labor market less often after giving birth in the short run, but the size of the effect tends to decrease in the long run. However, the negative effect on returning to the same workplace after the birth remains significant in the long run. Lastly, there is no evidence that the share of women of childbearing age at workplace changed due to the increase in the parental leave payment. Although there is a limitation in that the analysis is based only on the employment covered by the Employment Insurance, these findings imply that the increase in the parental leave payment may not be an effective policy tool for promoting female labor market participation. On the other hand, it should be noted that it is necessary to pay attention to child development as well as female employment as an objective in order to make an overall judgement on the parental leave policy.

환경 변화에 강인한 비전 기반 로봇 자율 주행

김정호,권인소,Kim, Jungho,Kweon, In So 대한임베디드공학회 2008 대한임베디드공학회논문지 Vol.3 No.2

Recently many researches on intelligent robots have been studied. An intelligent robot is capable of recognizing environments or objects to autonomously perform specific tasks using sensor readings. One of fundamental problems in vision-based robot applications is to recognize where it is and to decide safe path to perform autonomous navigation. However, previous approaches only consider well-organized environments that there is no moving object and environment changes. In this paper, we introduce a novel navigation strategy to handle occlusions caused by moving objects using various computer vision techniques. Experimental results demonstrate the capability to overcome such difficulties for autonomous navigation.

여성의 임금수준이 출산율에 미치는 영향 분석

김정호,Kim, Jungho 한국개발연구원 2009 韓國 開發 硏究 Vol.31 No.1

지난 20여 년간의 지속적인 출산율 감소 현상에 대응한 최근의 정책논의에서 출산율 감소에 대한 이론적 논의는 많이 이루어진데 반해 실증적 연구 결과의 양은 아직 빈약한 수준이다. 본 연구는 출산율 감소의 가장 중요한 원인 중의 하나로 이해되는 여성의 임금수준이 1980년대 이후의 출산율에 미친 영향을 실증적으로 분석한다. 기간모형을 이용하여 출산율의 한 구성요소인 출산 간격을 분석한 결과, 1980년부터 2005년까지의 두 번째 출산확률의 감소 중 여성 임금의 변화가 약 17%를 설명하는 것으로 나타났다. 자료의 한계로 인해 통제되지 못한 변수가 존재하나, 최소한 여성의 임금수준이 출산에 미치는 총체적 효과의 크기를 제시하는 하나의 추정치로서 의미가 있다. 임금으로 표현되는 여성의 노동시장에서의 기회비용 상승이 자녀에 대한 수요를 감소시킨다는 사실은 출산율 저하가 경제발전에 따르는 현상임을 암시한다. 따라서 출산율 제고와 여성의 고용 증진은 동시에 추구해야 할 정책목표로 보이고, 이를 달성하기 위해 정부는 자녀양육에 대한 여성의 노동시장에서의 기회비용을 줄이는 포괄적인 가족친화정책을 고려할 필요가 있다. Although the decline in fertility rate is generally observed along the history of economic development throughout the world, the continuing decline hitting below the replacement level in Korea over the recent years gathered serious social concerns on the ground that it accelerates the process of population aging. The total fertility rate in Koreareached 2.08 in 1983, and gradually fell to the levels of 1.08 in 2005 and 1.26 in 2007. The policy debate over the role of the government has been focused mainly on the level of theoretical discussion without substantial basis on firm empirical evidence and the determinants of fertility. The objective of the paper is to empirically investigate the fertility effect of the female wage, which is understood as one of the most important determinants of fertility in Koreasince 1980 focusing on one aspect of fertility, namely birth spacing. Using the Korean National Fertility Survey conducted in 2006, I estimate a duration model of first and second births taking into account individual heterogeneity, which turned out to be an important factor to control for. Compared with previous studies in the literature on the Korean fertility, the study has an advantage of using the complete pregnancy history of women in a more representative sample. Unlike the previous studies, the analysis also deals with the endogeneity of marriage by treating a certain age, rather than age at marriage, as the time in which a woman becomes exposed to the risk of pregnancy. The study shares the common problem in the literature on birth spacing of lacking relevant wage information for respondents in a retrospective survey. I estimate the wage series as a function of the basic characteristics using the annual Wage Structure Survey from 1980 to 2005, which is considered as a nationally representative sample for wage information of employees. The results suggest that the increase in female wage by 10 percent leads to a decrease in second birth hazard by 0.56~0.92 percentage points and that the increase in spouse's wage by the equal amount is accompanied by the increase in second birth hazard by 0.36~1.13 percentage points. These estimates are more precisely estimated and of smaller magnitude than those presented by the previous studies. The results are robust to the different specifications of the wage equation. The simulation analysis based on the predicted values shows that about 17% of the change in the second birth hazard over the period 1980 to 2005 was due to the change in the female wage. Although there is some limitation in data, the results can be viewed as one estimate of the role of female wage on the recent fertility decline in Korea. The question raised by the paper is not a normative one of whether a government should promote childbearing but a positive one thatexplains fertility decline. Therefore, if there is a wide consensus on promoting childbearing, the finding suggests that the policies designed to reduce the opportunity cost of women in the labor market would be effective. The recent movement of implementing a wide range of family-friendly policies including child care support, maternity leave, parental leave and tax benefit in developed countries should be understood in this context.

차량해석 분야의 다중최적화 기법에 관한 연구

김정호(Jungho Kim),김태욱(Taeuk Kim),김용석(Youngsuk Kim) 한국자동차공학회 2012 한국자동차공학회 부문종합 학술대회 Vol.2012 No.5

Recently customers’ interest for high-efficient and safer vehicle has been increasing. In addition, safety and emission requirements have become more severe than before the last decades in the world. Therefore, the key issues for the automotive companies could be summarized with mass, cost and performance to satisfy the customers’ needs. In this paper, multi-disciplinary optimization is conducted to minimize mass considering Safety crashworthiness, Body stiffness and NVH performance simultaneously with GM proprietary optimizer, ASPEN. And evaluation of the constraints effect for NVH loadcases like as A/T, P/F and IDLE which could not be defined as single number constraint is conducted as well. Totally 162 parts are considered as design variables and 8 Safety, 2 Body CAE and 4 NVH CAE loadcases are included for MDO constraint. Finally, through the 1956 initial runs using ASPEN DOE and 1760 iteration runs derived from RSM, 11.37kg mass reduction was shown with maintaining or enhancing current performance for each loadcases.

각 순수 굽힘 값을 얻기 위한 각 굽힘 특성 비교 평가

김정호(Jungho Kim),고병철(Byengcheol Go),김지훈(Jihoon Kim) 한국자동차공학회 2011 한국자동차공학회 지부 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2011 No.9

일반화된 전달행렬방법을 이용한 박막형 태양전지 모델링 연구

김정호(Jungho Kim) 한국조명·전기설비학회 2015 조명.전기설비 Vol.29 No.5

탄소복합재 비선형 해석을 위한 매트릭스의 비선형 데이터 추출에 관한 연구

김정호(Jungho Kim),김지훈(Jihoon Kim) 한국자동차공학회 2011 한국자동차공학회 학술대회 및 전시회 Vol.2011 No.11

출산의 계절성 분석

김정호(Kim, Jungho) 한국인구학회 2020 한국인구학 Vol.43 No.1

본 연구는 우리나라 출산의 계절성을 추정하고, 발생 원인에 대해서 논의한다. 인구동향조사를 이용하여 분석한 결과 지난 40여 년 동안 우리나라 출생아수는 연초에서 연말로 갈수록 감소하는 가운데, 9월 전후로 출생아수가 증가하였다가 감소하는 뚜렷한 양상을 보였다. 1월과 2월 출생아수는 연평균 대비 각각 16.1%와 19.6% 더 많은 반면, 6월과 12월 출생아수는 각각 8.4%와 8.9% 더 적었다. 이러한 월별 편차는 2월-3월 격차가 1990년대 이후 감소한 것을 제외하고는 전 기간에 걸쳐 나타났다. 또한 지역, 출생아 성별, 출생순위, 부모의 연령 등 다양한 가구 특성별로 구분하여도 대체로 일관성 있게 관찰되었다. 계절성의 원인에 대한 가설을 시도 단위 자료를 이용하여 검토한 결과, 3월과 6월 사이의 출산빈도 감소는 여름의 고온 다습한 기후에 의해, 6월과 9월 사이의 출산빈도 증가는 연말 혼인빈도의 증가로 설명이 가능한 것으로 나타났다. 연말 대비 연초 출산 선호현상은 기후, 혼인시점, 경제활동으로 설명되지 않아, 앰한나이를 기피하고 취학월령을 높이려는 경향에 기인한 것으로 사료된다. The study identifies the seasonality of births in Korea and discusses its causes. Using Current Population Survey, it finds a clear pattern that, over the last 40 years, there were more births in the beginning of the year than in the end and that there were more births in September than in other months in the mid-year period. The number of births in January and February were 16.1% and 19.6% higher than the annual average, respectively, while that in June and December were 8.4% and 8.9% lower, respectively. This monthly variation is observed over the entire period, except that the February-March gap has declined since the 1990s. In addition, the seasonality is consistently detected for most subgroups of population across region, sex, birth order and parental age and so forth. The analysis at province level suggests that the small number of births in June is explained by the hot and humid weather in summer. The evidence also indicates that the large number of births in September likely to be due to the preference for wedding in December. The preference for births in the beginning of year rather than in the end is likely to stem from the counting rule of age in Korea and the consideration of age in school.