Bullwhip Effect in a Supply Chain with Trend Demand : An Agent-based Simulation View

Hongsen Wang,Suling Jia 보안공학연구지원센터 2016 International Journal of u- and e- Service, Scienc Vol.9 No.8

The bullwhip effect is one of the core problems in supply chain management. Research on it has made a great progress over the years. However, little research has discussed it combining trend demand with order-up-to level replenishment policy in a multi-echelon supply chain. The fluctuation of the bullwhip effect itself is also seldom analyzed. This paper studies the two problems from the view of agent-based simulation. An agent-based model with complex calculation is developed. One highlight is that the players in the supply chain dynamically and intelligently estimate corresponding parameters at every tick. The results indicate that both the bullwhip effect and its fluctuation aggravate with the increase of leadtime. The trend size of customer demand has little influence on the bullwhip effect. The noise of customer demand does not affect the bullwhip effect significantly when it accords with normal distribution. The mean of the bullwhip effect changes differently with the increase of noise autocorrelation coefficient when noise is an AR(1) process. Meanwhile, the standard deviation of the bullwhip effect roughly changes in line with the mean. This paper also presents one bullwhip effect measurement suitable for trend demand.

공급사슬에서 채찍효과 관리를 위한 분석도구의 개발

심규탁(Kyu-Tak Shim),박양병(Yang-Byung Park) 한국산업경영시스템학회 2009 한국산업경영시스템학회지 Vol.32 No.1

The bullwhip effect is known as the significant factor which causes unnecessary inventory, lost sales or cost increase in supply chains. Therefore, the causes of the bullwhip effect must be examined and removed. In this paper, we develop two analytical tools for the bullwhip effect control in supply chains. First, we develop the quantitative models for computing the bullwhip effect in a three-stage supply chain consisted of a single retailer, a single distributor and a single manufacturer when the fixed-interval replenishment policy is applied at each stage. The quantitative models are developed under the different conditions for the demand forecasting and share of customer demand information. They are validated through the computational experiments. Second, we develop a simulation-based decision support system for the bullwhip effect control in a more diverse dynamic supply chain environment. The system includes a what-if analysis function to examine the effects of varying input parameters such as operating policies and costs on the bullwhip effect.

부족분 게임에서 정보가치에 관한 연구

임정혁,권민석,문성암 한국로지스틱스학회 2023 로지스틱스연구 Vol.31 No.1

A general structure of the network consists of one provider and two buyers, which is called a divergent structure. In the divergent structure, the allocation occurs because it is difficult to meet all of the buyers' demands, resulting in shortage games. Considering that the shortage game leads Bullwhip effect, reducing the shortage game will also reduce the Bullwhip effect. Previous studies suggest that information sharing will enhance the performance of the supply chain and reduce the Bullwhip effect, but adverse effects may occur depending on the type of information shared. This study researched what information should be shared to increase the performance of the supply chain and lower the negative effects such as Bullwhip effect. Opportunism information sharing model(A Model), Competitor information sharing model(B Model) and Supplier and Competitor information sharing model(C Model) were simulated by method of system dynamics, and each model was compared in terms of buyer inventory, customer service rate, and supply chain cost. As a result of the study, it was demonstrated that sharing the supplier's inventory and the other party's order volume can increase the performance of the supply chain by 16.3% and reduce negative effects such as Bullwhip effect.

Bullwhip effect in the supply chain with dual retailers of unequal leadtimes

Joo-Young Yoon(윤주영),Suk-Chul Rim(임석철) 한국SCM학회 2016 한국SCM학회지 Vol.16 No.1

We analyze the bullwhip effect in a 2-stage supply chain comprising of one supplier and two retailers with unequal lead times. For the case when the retailers’demand follows autoregressive process of order one, we develop a closed form equation that represents the bullwhip effect. Through the numerical experiment, we could derive the result that the bullwhip effect can be mitigated when the two retailers have different lead times. We can say that previous works have overestimated the bullwhip effect because these ignored the smoothing effect from different lead times.

리드타임이 상이한 2개의 소매점을 갖는 공급사슬의 채찍효과

윤주영,임석철 한국SCM학회 2016 한국SCM학회지 Vol.16 No.1

We analyze the bullwhip effect in a 2-stage supply chain comprising of one supplier and two retailers with unequal lead times. For the case when the retailers’demand follows autoregressive process of order one, we develop a closed form equation that represents the bullwhip effect. Through the numerical experiment, we could derive the result that the bullwhip effect can be mitigated when the two retailers have different lead times. We can say that previous works have overestimated the bullwhip effect because these ignored the smoothing effect from different lead times.

SCM을 위한 정보시스템의 확산이 채찍효과에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

임희택,강경식,Lim, Hee-Taek,Kang, Kyung-sik 대한안전경영과학회 2017 대한안전경영과학회지 Vol.19 No.1

The size of the market for SCM information systems have globally and steadily increased. And there are businesses that obtained innovative business performance by introducing SCM information systems. However, many businesses have still undergone trial and error in the process to introduce and operate SCM. As external factors including suppliers, customers, etc. and internal factors of businesses have been analyzed to be failure factors of executing SCM information systems, the businesses that try to introduce SCM information systems need to understand possible failure factors and establish the solutions. Therefore, this study tries to verify the diffusion of SCM information systems and effects on bullwhip effects. The study is expected to suggest empirical data that people will refer to the establishment of next counterstrategies according to the lapse of the period that systems are introduced based on theoretical bases related to the diffusion of SCM information systems.

A Study on the Collaborative Inventory Management of Big Data Supply Chain : Case of China’s Beer Industry

Jinhui Chen(진금회),Chan-Yong Jin(진찬용) 한국컴퓨터정보학회 2021 韓國컴퓨터情報學會論文誌 Vol.26 No.3

중국에서의 빅데이터의 발전 과정은 비교적 짧아 10년 정도에 불과하다. 따라서 실제 생활에서의 구체적인 활용도는 높지 않으나, 공급망분야에서는 일부 성과를 보이고 있다. 공급망이 실제로 작동하는 과정에서 발생하는 각종 데이터를 효과적으로 분류·활용할 수 있다면, 공급망 운영 과정에서 발생하는 "채찍효과" 또한 개선될 수 있을 것이다. 본 연구의 목적은 빅데이터를 활용한 공급망 협업 재고 관리 모델과 응용 프레임워크의 개발이다. 본 연구에서는 "채찍효과"가 가장 뚜렷한 소비 업종인 중국의 맥주 업계 공급 체인을 분석하였으며, 시뮬레이션 및 민감도분석을 위해 Vensim을 사용하였다. 본 연구의 모델을 적용한 결과 맥주 업계 공급 체인의 각 참여 주체의 재고변화가 적어지는 의미 있는 결과를 발견하였다. 또한 이러한 연구가 더 큰 데이터를 갖는 공급망 협업 재고관리모델에도 적용될 수 있는 가능성을 제사하고, 공급망 협업 재고관리모델에서 발생할 수 있는 문제점 및 대응방안을 제시하였다. The development history of China"s big data is relatively short, and it has only been ten years so far. Although the application level of big data in real life is not high, some achievements have been made in the supply chain. Various kinds of data will be generated in the actual operation of the supply chain. If these data can be effectively classified and used, the "bullwhip effect" of the operation of the supply chain can be also effectively improved. Thus this paper proposes the development of a supply chain collaborative inventory management model and application framework using big data. In this study, we analyzed the supply chain of beer industry, which is the most prominent consumption industry with "bullwhip effect", and further established a big data collaborative inventory management model for the supply chain of beer industry based on system dynamics. We used the Vensim software for simulation and sensitivity test and after appling our model, we found that the inventory fluctuations of the participants in the beer industry supply chain became significantly smaller, which verified the effectiveness of the model. Our study can be also applied to the possible problems of the large data supply chain collaborative inventory management model, and gives certain countermeasures and suggestions.

국제물품매매계약에 관한 UN협약 상 이행기 전 계약위반 법리에 관한 연구

서인원(Seo, In Won) 서강대학교 법학연구소 2017 법과기업연구 Vol.7 No.1

비엔나협약 상의 ‘이행기 전 계약위반 법리’는, 계약체결 후 이행기까지를 공백상태로 인식해온 대륙법계 국가에는 매우 낯선 입법이다. 더불어 비엔나협약 성안당시 광범위한 지지를 보냈던 제 3세계 국가들의 맹렬한 반대에 부딪힌 입법이기도 하다. 이들에게 본 법리는, 시장의 주도권을 가진 계약당사자가 계약을 해체하고자 한다면, 언제든 사용할 수 있는 구밀복검(口蜜腹劍)에 다름 아니었던 것이다. 하지만 이들의 선입견과는 달리, 본 법리는 ‘이행거절의 명백한 의사표시’가 있거나 혹은 ‘이에 준’하는 경우, 계약해제를 기초로 발생한 손해를 전보하고, 계약당사자 쌍방이 신속히 시장으로 복귀할 수 있도록 돕는 입법이라 하겠다. 본 법리는, 19세기 영국의 Hochster v. De la Tour 사건, 미국의 Dingley v. Oler 사건에서 처음 논의되었다. 20세기 초까지 판례법에 의한 법리발전을 거듭하던 양국은, 1932년 제 1차 리스테이트먼트가 편찬되면서 각자 다른 진화과정을 겪게 된다. 영국은 판례법 발전에 기댄 채 성문화과정을 거치지 않은 반면, 미국은 연성법 형식의 성문화 과정을 거듭하게 된 것이다. 제정/제 1차 수정 통일상법전 제 2편(1952/1958), 제 2차 리스테이트먼트(1981), 제 2차 수정 통일상법전 제 2편(2002)이 바로 그 증거다. 이에 본 논고는, 상기한 입법의 제도사적·비교법적 논의를 진행함으로써, 본 법리가 시대적 흐름에 따라 개념의 점증과정을 거치고 있음을 발견하게 된다. 더불어 본 논고는, 1980년 채택된 비엔나협약이 이러한 진화적 일관성의 예외임을 분석하게 된다. 특히 비엔나협약 상의 이행기 전 계약위반은, 법률요건 차원에서는 19세기 영국판례의 정도, 법률효과 차원에서는 제정/제 1차 수정 통일상법전 제 2편의 정도에 달하는 진화가 있었음을 도출하게 된다. 이러한 입법적 ‘뒤틀림’에 대해 본 논고는, “첫 번째로, (법률요건 차원에서)명백한 이행거절 의사표시에 준하는 경우가 무엇인지 한정·열거하고, 계약위반당사자의 ‘철회권’을 명문화하는 한편, 비엔나 협약 제 72조 제 2항의 삭제”를 주장하고 있으며, “두 번째로, (법률효과 차원에서)인과관계 존부에 따른 손해배상 면책·제한규정을 도입하는 한편, 제 71조 제 3항에 ‘상거래 관행’을 명문화”하도록 요구하고 있다. 더불어 본 논고는, 이러한 법리의 현대화가 국제상사계약의 현실서, 과수요-저수요의 파동 폭을 줄여, 당사자 간의 거래비용을 효과적으로 감소시킬 것이라 분석하고 있다. 마지막으로 본 논고는, 이행기 전 계약위반의 법리를 역사적 제도주의 관점으로 재 해설(再 解說)한 본 논고의 분석틀이, 제도의 과학적 진화를 촉진시키는 데 도움이 될 것이라 주장하고 있다. The legal principle of anticipatory breach specified in GISG is highly unfamiliar to countries based on civil law that have recognized the time between conclusion and performance of a contract as being blank. In addition, this legislation met with fierce opposition from third world countries that showed extensive support for the draft of CISG; because, to them, it meant the contractor that has dominance in the market can arbitrarily use the provision to cancel the contract. However, contrary to their belief, this principle is intended to enable canceling a contract, upon express intention or equivalent notice prior to the period of performance, and transferring incurred damages so that both parties of the contract can promptly return to the market. This principle of law was first discussed during the Hochester v. De La Tour in England and Dingley v. Oler during the 19th century. The two countries, which used to develop principles of law based on case law until the early 20th century, began to walk different paths in the evolution of law, after compilation of the first Restatement in 1932. While England did not undergo codification based on common law, and, instead relied on development of case law, the US pursued codification in the form of soft law, as exemplified by the first/amended Uniform Commercial Code Second Edition (1952/1958), Restatement Second (1981), and second amended Uniform Commercial Code Second Edition (2002) This article disused the aforementioned law based on history of institutionalism and comparison and suggested that the concept of this law has steadily increased through the passage of time. In addition, this study analyzed CISG adopted in 1980 and showed that it is an exception to such evolutionary consistency. Particularly, according to findings in this article, anticipatory breach specified in CISG has seen evolution that corresponds to precedents in England during the 19th century in terms of legal conditions, and to the second edition of the enacted/first amended Uniform Commercial Code in terms of legal effect. Regarding such legislative contradiction this article, first, defined and listed cases that correspond to express intention of anticipatory breach from the viewpoint of legal conditions, and proposed deletion of Article 72.2 of CISG while introducing cooling-off. Second, it suggested introducing a provision of damage exemption based on existence of causality, from the viewpoint of legal effect, and addition of legislation related to lex mercatoria to Article 71.3. Lastly, this article proposed that the framework it used for analyzing the legal principle of anticipatory breach based on historical institutionalism can help promote scientific evolution of institution.

계절 공급사슬에서 채찍효과에 영향을 미치는 정보공유의 평가

조동원(Dong Won Cho),이영해(Young Hae Lee) 대한산업공학회 2010 대한산업공학회 춘계학술대회논문집 Vol.2010 No.6

This paper study the impact of information sharing between the supplier and the retailer on the bullwhip effect. The demand occurring at the customer follows a seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARMA) process including marketing action that cannot be deduced from other parameters. For both the supplier and the retailer, an order-up-to periodic review policy is adopted There are three cases of information sharing considering such as continuous replenishment programs (CRP) and vendor managed Inventory (VMI). we attempt to quantify the order variance of each party under three cases and compare the results through numerical experiment. Our analysis shows that information sharing has an important influence on the bullwhip effect in a supply chain.

계절 공급사슬에서 채찍효과에 영향을 미치는 정보공유의 평가

조동원(Dong Won Cho),이영해(Young Hae Lee) 한국경영과학회 2010 한국경영과학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2010 No.6

This paper study the impact of information sharing between the supplier and the retailer on the bullwhip effect. The demand occurring at the customer follows a seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARMA) process including marketing action that cannot be deduced from other parameters. For both the supplier and the retailer, an order-up-to periodic review policy is adopted There are three cases of information sharing considering such as continuous replenishment programs (CRP) and vendor managed Inventory (VMI). we attempt to quantify the order variance of each party under three cases and compare the results through numerical experiment. Our analysis shows that information sharing has an important influence on the bullwhip effect in a supply chain.