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- 저자 : Robert Sutter (검색결과 8 건)
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EAST ASIA AND THE UNITED STATES.RECENT IMPROVEMENTS AND OUTLOOK
Robert Sutter 통일연구원 2002 International journal of korean unification studie Vol.11 No.1
East Asia remains beset by numerous difficult issues ranging from regional hot spots in the Taiwan Strait and the Korean peninsula, to economic difficulties in Japan and broader policy drift in Indonesia. The region is full of strategic uncertainty and economic and political change. The results include pervasive hedging by regional powers; most governments are using more diversified diplomacy, military preparations and other means to insure their particular interests will be safeguarded, especially in case the regional situation should change for the worse. While generally recognizing the need to conform to international economic norms, East Asian governments also seek to block or slow perceived adverse consequences of economic globalization, seen as supported by the United States, and they seek greater cooperation with similarly affected governments in and outside the region. Politically, regional governments are inclined to oppose the US and other outside pressure for political rights and democracy that come at the expense of national sovereignty and stability. Trends in the region and US policy toward the region also are likely to be affected by major turmoil caused by such imminent dangers as another large-scale terrorist attack on America, a war possibly involving nuclear weapons between India and Pakistan, escalating Israeli-Palestinian conflict, or a US military attack against Iraq. US economic power could decline with the turndown in the US stock market and the weakening of the dollar. Despite these challenges, this article argues that recent US policy has served to reinforce the US position as the region’s preferred security guarantor and economic partner. Other circumstances, notably the US-led war on terrorism and the preoccupation of East Asian leaders with domestic issues, have strengthened the US leading position in East Asia and allowed for a generally positive outlook in US-East Asian relations for the rest of the Bush administration. East Asia remains beset by numerous difficult issues ranging from regional hot spots in the Taiwan Strait and the Korean peninsula, to economic difficulties in Japan and broader policy drift in Indonesia. The region is full of strategic uncertainty and economic and political change. The results include pervasive hedging by regional powers; most governments are using more diversified diplomacy, military preparations and other means to insure their particular interests will be safeguarded, especially in case the regional situation should change for the worse. While generally recognizing the need to conform to international economic norms, East Asian governments also seek to block or slow perceived adverse consequences of economic globalization, seen as supported by the United States, and they seek greater cooperation with similarly affected governments in and outside the region. Politically, regional governments are inclined to oppose the US and other outside pressure for political rights and democracy that come at the expense of national sovereignty and stability. Trends in the region and US policy toward the region also are likely to be affected by major turmoil caused by such imminent dangers as another large-scale terrorist attack on America, a war possibly involving nuclear weapons between India and Pakistan, escalating Israeli-Palestinian conflict, or a US military attack against Iraq. US economic power could decline with the turndown in the US stock market and the weakening of the dollar. Despite these challenges, this article argues that recent US policy has served to reinforce the US position as the region’s preferred security guarantor and economic partner. Other circumstances, notably the US-led war on terrorism and the preoccupation of East Asian leaders with domestic issues, have strengthened the US leading position in East Asia and allowed for a generally positive outlook in US-East Asian relations for the rest of the Bush administration.
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US Turn against China, 2020 Elections, Implications for South Korea
Robert Sutter 제주평화연구원 2020 Jeju Forum Journal Vol.2 No.-
The American government’s broad ranging efforts targeting an array of challenges to US interests posed by the policies and behavior of the Chinese government developed through close collaboration between the Trump administration and both Democrats and Republicans in the Congress. Emerging erratically in the first year of the Trump administration in late 2017, the US government’s hardening against China later demonstrated momentum in gaining greater support in the United States. It reached a high point during the heat of the 2020 presidential election campaign as the most important foreign policy issue in the campaign. South Korea has shown more angst over its vulnerability to negative fallout from the growing US-China rivalry than any other regional power. South Korea is very exposed and has few good options for dealing with the intensifying US-China rivalry. Prevailing assumptions are that a tough US policy toward China will continue in 2021 and strong Chinese retaliation will follow South Korean moves to align with the United States in the rivalry with China.
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미국 의회연구소 보고서 : 미·북관계 개선과 관련된 법적, 절차적 문제
Davis, Zachary S.,Niksch, Larry A.,Nowels, Larry Q.,Pregelj, Vladimir N.,Shinn, Rinn-Sup,Sutter, Robert G. 한국전략문제연구소 1995 전략연구 Vol.2 No.1
클린턴 행정부는 1994년10월21일 북한 핵개발로 인한 위기를 해소하고 정치 및 경제관계 정상화 방안들을 포함한 미·북 협정에 서명하였다. 對북 경수로 제공 및 중유선적 등을 위한 세부 절차 그리고 후속조치인 관계 정상화등에 관한 절찬 등 여러협정 세부조항들이 아직 공개되지 않았다. 의회와 행정부가 동 협정을 이행하고 관계정상화를 위한 조치들을 고려함에 따라서 현재의 미북한간 관계를 주도하고 있는 일련의 복잡한 법률 및 규정상의 제한에 봉착하게 될 것이다. 이러한 제한 요소들은 경수로 제공 및 유류공급이 중요한 국면에 영향을 미치고 경제, 외교, 문화 및 기타 등을 포함한 모든 공식적인 관계를 망라 하고 있다. 이것들은 또한 냉전시대에 공산주의를 반대하는 미국의 조치들에 깊은 역사적 뿌리를 두고 있다. 중국 및 베트남 같은 기타의 공산주의국가들과 관계정상화를 도모할 때 있었던 법률 및 규정상의 제한요소와 경험을 검토해 보면 공산주의 국가와의 관계정상화 과정은 종종 지연되었음을 알 수 있다. 현재의 미·북관계의 여러 제한요소들은 북한에 관한 특별한 법령 또는 북한을 포함한 특정국가들에 영향을 미치는 법령들에 의해 규정지워 진다. 일부 법령들은 대통령의 재량권인 한편, 기타 제한 요소들은 일반 법령 또는 특정상황 또는 정책에 관한 행정결정에 의해 북한에 적용된 가타의 권한등에 의해서 유지되어 왔다. 후속되는 관계정상화 과정은 경제관계를 유예시키고 외교관계를 먼저 수립하거나 정치분야보다 경제관계를 선행 또는 모든분야를 동시에 발전시키는 등과 같이 다양한 방안들이 있다. 일반적으로 대통령이 주로 이들을 추진하지만 의회도 여러 분야에서 중요한 역할을 하기 때문에 의회의 지원없이는 관계 정상화가 불가능하다.
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