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최남희 ( Choi Nam-hee ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2016 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.17 No.3
This study aims to develop strategic diagnosis framework of performance by identifying and analysing the dynamics of the technology commercialization ecosystem in innovative region. To achieve the purpose of this study, the systems thinking approach is used. The systems thinking approach connects feedback structure and behavior more explicitly to diagnosis vicious feedback loop in the regional technology commercialization ecosystem. In terms of an ecological point of view, it will be possible to explore dominant feedback structure and find leverages to overcome the limitations of regional technology commercialization performance. The diagnosis of reenforcing and balancing feedback structure is based on the statistical analysis of the survey data which has been collected in a cluster random sampling method, targeting on the 200 firm located in the Pangyo and Daeduk region. The results from this research showed that the regional technology commercialization ecosystem was immature and faced limit to the growth. An important finding of this study was that regional technology commercialization ecosystem need to activation of startups and reinforcement of virtuous feedback structures of technology commercialization market systems.
읍,면지역 한계고령화의 인과순환적 구조분석과 인구소멸 임계점에 대한 시뮬레이션
최남희 ( Nam Hee Choi ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2016 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.17 No.1
Accelerated ageing with low fertility is one of the most critical problems in Korea. Because of ageing via low fertility, Korea will face a serious demographic cliff. This research primarily focus on the analyzing the dynamics of the marginal ageing state and decreasing population especially in Eup and Myeon region. This study based on the system dynamics approaches for finding causal loop structure of marginal ageing and critical mass of population disappearing. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, demographic marginalization trends have already begun in the Eups and Myons of Gun. Second, marginal aging speed in Eup/Myeon areas is causing an population disappearing in the near future. Third, critical mass of population disappearing will begin when the rate of marginal aging is exceed 82% after 2023.
지역전략산업육성사업과 지역경제성장 파급효과: 충북 사례를 중심으로
최남희 ( Nam Hee Choi ),조병설 ( Byung Seoll Jo ),안유정 ( Yoo Jeong Ahn ),이만형 ( Man Hyung Lee ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2013 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.14 No.1
This study tries to measure the direct and indirect effects of the Regional Strategic Industry (RSI) promotion projects in Chungbuk Province in Korea. In specific, it critically examines whether there exists policy consistency and connectivity between the hardware-oriented Stage I (2002~2007) and the software-centered Stage II (2008~2012)RSI promotion projects. Applying System Dynamics (SD) techniques, this study examines complex system characteristics of RSI promotion projects, all of which have been derived from the causal and stock-flow models and their simulated results. Major findings are as follows: Firstly, ``the continuous investment`` is regarded as the most crucial policy leverage for the strategic industry promotion and regional economic growth. Secondly, without exceptions, the RSI promotion projects should switch their evaluation criteria to performance-oriented ones. Thirdly, in selecting their subprojects, the RSI promotion projects should pay due attention to evaluating technology value and marketability. Fourthly, it should put policy priority in strengthening cluster networking and interconnectivity among projects, inevitably supporting a selective number of virtuous network systems. Fifthly, auxiliary projects such as marketing, technology aid, and knowledge-based services should not be overlooked.
한우 가격 파동의 인과순환적 구조분석과 정책 시뮬레이션
최남희 ( Nam Hee Choi ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2013 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.14 No.3
This study aims to analyze the feedback loops and policy simulation of price fluctuation of Korean Cattle. The Korean Cattle market shows the ``Cycle of Beef`` since 1970. In general, the market for agricultural commodities exhibit repeated cycles of prices and production. Why Beef products market in Korea shows the fluctuation of cattle and beef price repeatedly for forty years? To find an answer, this paper explores the feedback structure of the dynamics of the beef market by the systems thinking and build a stock-flow diagram model for the simulation of future behavior of the market sector of the Cattle. The dynamic simulation model was developed to identify and analyze the cyclical behavior among many variables, which is the number of cattle (calves, cow, etc.), the price of cattle, the demand for beef, the desirable number of cattle, slaughter, etc. The results of this study demonstrate that dominant feedback loops between the number of cattle and livestock prices. The demand for Beef and slaughter with time delay, also the results of the simulation to explain the persistence of future price fluctuations and actions meat market until 2025.
BTL과 BTO사업의 인과순환구조 분석과 경제성 비교에 관한 연구
최남희 ( Nam Hee Choi ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2011 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.12 No.4
PFI(Private Finance Initiative) for suppling SOC and public facilities instead of Government Infrastructure Project introduced from 1994. BTO(Build-Transfer- Operate) project had been major type of PFI system from 1994 to 2005. But after changed the Law of PFI on SOC, the BTL project newly introduced. In BTO system, the Government retrieves the investment through the operating income, but in BTL system, the government lease the facilities. As the BTO and BTL projects are widely adopted and implemented to ease the fiscal burden of government, but it has caused the tremendous fiscal burden each year over the period operation. Therefore this study attempted to analyze the question, that is, why government fiscal burden tipping? Hence, this paper, compares the difference of business structure between BTO and BTL project and explore the vicious and virtuous business structure, with the method of circular causal loop analysis. As a result, it has shown that there are some positive feedback and negative feedback loops cause the tipping and easing of government fiscal burden.
국토정책이 지역 간 인구이동에 미치는 영향에 대한 프로토타입 모형 개발
최남희 ( Nam Hee Choi ),안유정 ( Yoo Jeong Ahn ),이진희 ( Jin Hee Lee ),김경미 ( Kyeong Mi Kim ),송미경 ( Mi Kyoung Song ),이만형 ( Man Hyung Lee ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2010 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.11 No.4
National territorial policies require a series of dynamic simulations, which would facilitate effectiveness measuring and forecasting works geared towards territorial policies under consideration or implementation. This paper aims at designing an integrated prototype for the proposed territorial policies. After the simulation exercises for the Ochang Industrial Complex(OIC) in Chungbuk Province, this study firstly finds meaningful mismatch phenomena between housing and population increases as the in-migration time lag seems inevitable even after the housing construction is in a mature state. Secondly, the OIC development exerts more significant impact on the number of employees than that of business units. Thirdly, in- and out-migration orders are different during the first and second stages of OIC development. That is, Chungbuk Province records the largest in terms of in-migration volume, followed by the Capital and Non-Capital Regions. Even though Chungbuk Province ranks the top position in the out-migration volume, the rank of the Capital and Non-Capital Regions is reversed: the our-migration volume towards the Non-Capital Region outruns that of the Capital Region.
최남희(Nam Hee Choi) 위기관리 이론과 실천 2006 Crisisonomy Vol.2 No.2
Disaster survivors suffer, in most cases, a great economic loss, heavy physical damages and, moreover, some dreadful mental pains. The psychological shock aroused by disasters especially deteriorate one's social capabilities. So, even when the disastrous state of affairs come to an end, disaster survivors tend to suffer serious conflict with their family members and mistrust in other people in their regional society. In this context, policy plans of emergency management aiming at mitigating psychological impact of disasters. Among those mental impacts of a disaster, there are two sorts that are most noticeable. The comparatively simple one among them is Acute Stress Syndrome occurring as an instant response to the unexpected situation of disaster. But the more complex and long-term enduring trouble in Post Traumatic Stress Disorder causing still more serious psychological problems. A nation-wide public support system should be established for disaster survivors to return to their social life as a wholesome members, preventing them from falling into PTSD victims. Supporting those catastrophe sufferers should not stop at the level of economic assistance or material restoration, but need to progress to measures for recovering socio-cultural health of them. For a successful establishment of these supporting institutions, policy planners as well as pertaining researchers should develop a wide and deep understanding of the behavioral response of those sufferers as an effect of disaster experience. Emergency management and control are such tasks as to be accomplished through a common effort of regional communities and the national government, together with that of social activists. In addition, some extraordinary social concern and policy consideration should be given to the social minorities who are apt to be frequently exposed to social and natural dangers and so who are weak in elasticity of treating disaster impact. 심리적 충격은 단순하게는 예측하지 못한 사태에 직면한 후 경험하는 급성스트레스 반응(acute stress syndrome)에서부터 장기적으로 심각한 정신적 문제를 일으킬 수도 있는 외상후 스트레스 장애(post traumatic stress disorder) 현상으로 발전하기도 한다. 외상후 스트레스 장애로의 이행을 방지하고 보다 건강한 사회구성원으로 복귀할 수 있도록 하는 피해자 지원 방안이 필요하다. 재난 피해자 지원은 사회적 건강성의 회복과 장기적인 관점에서의 지원, 피해자 변화의 장기적인 추적 연구, 지원과 관리를 위한 표준적 지식 기준을 마련해야 한다. 또한 재난 충격의 결과에 대한 사회적 인식을 확대하고 재난의 관리 및 대응은 협력, 공동노력의 토대를 마련해야 한다. 또한 재난 피해에 취약한 계층에 대한 지원책 마련이 필요하다.