고령화에 따른 지방재정의 동태성 분석

최남희 ( Nam Hee Choi ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2012 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.13 No.4

This paper aims at investigating the dynamics between aging population and local finance. In recent years, the aging rate has been accelerating the pace. The trend implies that Korea is moving towards the aging society, presumably, with unprecedented speed in the world. Aging society`s biggest problems are centered around the explosive growth of the financial needs. In particular, these problems are apt to appear more seriously in local governments, as most of them are confronted with high level of aging population and poor financial bases. Firstly, it analyzes how the population structure in the local government impacts local finance, income and expenditure. Based upon in-depth literature reviews, this study examines variables related to aging population and local fiance. Secondly, it focuses on a series of positive and negative feedback loops which would reveal the essence of the mutual interaction structure between aging population and local governments` fiscal behaviors.

교통법규 위반자에 대한 사면과 교통사고 발생 간의 인과순환적 관계에 대한 연구

최남희 ( Nam Hee Choi ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2009 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.10 No.4

More than 24.43 million people received a special pardon to mark the anniversary of Liberation Day on Aug. 15 and to commemorate other national event, during 15years(1995-2009), in this period six times of presidential pardon was implemented. The special pardon allows traffic law violator to drive again with their violation records wiped clean. But traffic records show that traffic accidents used to increase very fast in a short period by up to 3-15 percent after implementing the every massive pardons. This study explores the causal feedback relationship between presidential special pardon for traffic law violators and the occurrence of an traffic accidents using a system thinking approach and simulation modelling. Particularly, this study focused on the analysing significant negative impact of the traffic pardon on the occurrence of worrisome traffic accidents. The results of this study show that presidential special pardon have had impact on the traffic accidents as a increasing leverage of positive feedback loop and the obedience of traffic law as a decreasing leverage of negative feedback loop. Finally, this study conclude that the cyclical increasing pattern of traffic accident is resulting from the periodically conducted presidential pardons with political aims.

국토정책이 지역 간 인구이동에 미치는 영향에 대한 프로토타입 모형 개발

최남희 ( Nam Hee Choi ),안유정 ( Yoo Jeong Ahn ),이진희 ( Jin Hee Lee ),김경미 ( Kyeong Mi Kim ),송미경 ( Mi Kyoung Song ),이만형 ( Man Hyung Lee ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2010 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.11 No.4

National territorial policies require a series of dynamic simulations, which would facilitate effectiveness measuring and forecasting works geared towards territorial policies under consideration or implementation. This paper aims at designing an integrated prototype for the proposed territorial policies. After the simulation exercises for the Ochang Industrial Complex(OIC) in Chungbuk Province, this study firstly finds meaningful mismatch phenomena between housing and population increases as the in-migration time lag seems inevitable even after the housing construction is in a mature state. Secondly, the OIC development exerts more significant impact on the number of employees than that of business units. Thirdly, in- and out-migration orders are different during the first and second stages of OIC development. That is, Chungbuk Province records the largest in terms of in-migration volume, followed by the Capital and Non-Capital Regions. Even though Chungbuk Province ranks the top position in the out-migration volume, the rank of the Capital and Non-Capital Regions is reversed: the our-migration volume towards the Non-Capital Region outruns that of the Capital Region.

BTL과 BTO사업의 인과순환구조 분석과 경제성 비교에 관한 연구

최남희 ( Nam Hee Choi ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2011 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.12 No.4

PFI(Private Finance Initiative) for suppling SOC and public facilities instead of Government Infrastructure Project introduced from 1994. BTO(Build-Transfer- Operate) project had been major type of PFI system from 1994 to 2005. But after changed the Law of PFI on SOC, the BTL project newly introduced. In BTO system, the Government retrieves the investment through the operating income, but in BTL system, the government lease the facilities. As the BTO and BTL projects are widely adopted and implemented to ease the fiscal burden of government, but it has caused the tremendous fiscal burden each year over the period operation. Therefore this study attempted to analyze the question, that is, why government fiscal burden tipping? Hence, this paper, compares the difference of business structure between BTO and BTL project and explore the vicious and virtuous business structure, with the method of circular causal loop analysis. As a result, it has shown that there are some positive feedback and negative feedback loops cause the tipping and easing of government fiscal burden.

트라우마 내러티브 재구성과 회복효과

최남희(Choi, Nam Hee),유정(Ryu, Jeong) 한국피해자학회 2010 被害者學硏究 Vol.18 No.1

With this research we are going to search for some particular ways and means of overcoming traumatic experience, i. e, narrative reconstructing. And we will evaluate the efficiency of those ways and means by case studies. A traumatic experience means the sudden collapse of the familar world. Victims of traumatic disasters can hardly understand things and surroundings; they are apt to lose the ability of moderate behavior. However, traumatic experiences do not necessarily lead to such disorders; that is, we can change them into the positive energy of development. Processes of narrative reconstruction help persons to have the composure of insight and reflection; trauma-sufferers can renew their understanding of situation while they give orders to their own experience of traumatic accidents. We should continually modify or upgrade the whole process of narrative reconstruction by giving a concrete form to it, including detail items of reprocessing and reordering the traumatic experience, according to the respective cases of disastrous accidents and their sufferers. The basic proceeding of narrative construction and reconstruction includes four steps of sequential order, as follows : ① data (= traumatic experience or its memory) collecting and its narrative reprocessing, ② mapping of narrative experience, ③ review of narrative composition, ④ searching for a new perspective of hope. With an overall explanation of these processes, in this essay, a case survey is shown as an evidence of the efficacy of narrative reconstruction for healing and reempowering of trauma sufferers.

지역전략산업육성사업과 지역경제성장 파급효과: 충북 사례를 중심으로

최남희 ( Nam Hee Choi ),조병설 ( Byung Seoll Jo ),안유정 ( Yoo Jeong Ahn ),이만형 ( Man Hyung Lee ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2013 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.14 No.1

This study tries to measure the direct and indirect effects of the Regional Strategic Industry (RSI) promotion projects in Chungbuk Province in Korea. In specific, it critically examines whether there exists policy consistency and connectivity between the hardware-oriented Stage I (2002~2007) and the software-centered Stage II (2008~2012)RSI promotion projects. Applying System Dynamics (SD) techniques, this study examines complex system characteristics of RSI promotion projects, all of which have been derived from the causal and stock-flow models and their simulated results. Major findings are as follows: Firstly, ``the continuous investment`` is regarded as the most crucial policy leverage for the strategic industry promotion and regional economic growth. Secondly, without exceptions, the RSI promotion projects should switch their evaluation criteria to performance-oriented ones. Thirdly, in selecting their subprojects, the RSI promotion projects should pay due attention to evaluating technology value and marketability. Fourthly, it should put policy priority in strengthening cluster networking and interconnectivity among projects, inevitably supporting a selective number of virtuous network systems. Fifthly, auxiliary projects such as marketing, technology aid, and knowledge-based services should not be overlooked.

우리나라 군지역의 고령화 위기와 동태성의 인과순환적 구조분석

최남희 ( Nam Hee Choi ),이종근 ( Jong Kun Lee ),김근세 ( Keun Sei Kim ),이명식 ( Myung Suk Lee ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2014 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.15 No.1

This research primarily aims at analyzing major crises originating from marginalizing population, especially in counties. In addition, based on the system dynamics approaches, it pays attention to divulging causal loop structure which has been rather strengthened by diverse interactions among key variables. Judging from simulation works, even though Korea is exposed to unprecedented aging trends over decades, its counter response seems inadequate and insufficient, mostly dismissing a series of impact embedded in the aging dynamics. This research statistically confirms that demographic marginalization trends have already begun in the villages within Eup and Myon counties. Furthermore, this research pinpoints out the fact that it would be almost impossible for majority of villages within Eup and Myon counties to escape from going out of existence in the course of time, as they tend to be entrapped vicious cycle of marginalization or extinction.

읍,면지역 한계고령화의 인과순환적 구조분석과 인구소멸 임계점에 대한 시뮬레이션

최남희 ( Nam Hee Choi ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2016 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.17 No.1

Accelerated ageing with low fertility is one of the most critical problems in Korea. Because of ageing via low fertility, Korea will face a serious demographic cliff. This research primarily focus on the analyzing the dynamics of the marginal ageing state and decreasing population especially in Eup and Myeon region. This study based on the system dynamics approaches for finding causal loop structure of marginal ageing and critical mass of population disappearing. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, demographic marginalization trends have already begun in the Eups and Myons of Gun. Second, marginal aging speed in Eup/Myeon areas is causing an population disappearing in the near future. Third, critical mass of population disappearing will begin when the rate of marginal aging is exceed 82% after 2023.

식물의 연령과 엽수에 따른 저온처리가 자주초롱꽃(Campanula punctata rubriflora Mak.)의 생육과 개화에 미치는 영향

최남희(Nam Hee Choi),정병룡(Byoung Ryong Jeong) 한국원예학회 2003 한국원예학회 학술발표요지 Vol.2003 No.10

한우 가격 파동의 인과순환적 구조분석과 정책 시뮬레이션

최남희 ( Nam Hee Choi ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2013 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.14 No.3

This study aims to analyze the feedback loops and policy simulation of price fluctuation of Korean Cattle. The Korean Cattle market shows the ``Cycle of Beef`` since 1970. In general, the market for agricultural commodities exhibit repeated cycles of prices and production. Why Beef products market in Korea shows the fluctuation of cattle and beef price repeatedly for forty years? To find an answer, this paper explores the feedback structure of the dynamics of the beef market by the systems thinking and build a stock-flow diagram model for the simulation of future behavior of the market sector of the Cattle. The dynamic simulation model was developed to identify and analyze the cyclical behavior among many variables, which is the number of cattle (calves, cow, etc.), the price of cattle, the demand for beef, the desirable number of cattle, slaughter, etc. The results of this study demonstrate that dominant feedback loops between the number of cattle and livestock prices. The demand for Beef and slaughter with time delay, also the results of the simulation to explain the persistence of future price fluctuations and actions meat market until 2025.