Demand Forecasting of New Media Services Using Competitive Bass Model and the Theory of the Niche

Hyeonju Seol,Gwangman Park,Byungun Yoon,Hakyeon Lee,Sora Lee,Youngjung Geum 대한산업공학회 2009 대한산업공학회 추계학술대회논문집 Vol.2009 No.10

New digital broadcasting services such as Internet protocol TV (IPTV) have totally been reorganizing the media industry; thus, predicting the patterns and degree of diffusion of new media services is a major topic of interest for both governments and providers. This paper proposes a new approach to forecasting demands of new media services with consideration of competitive relationships with existing services. The competitive Bass model is adopted for the purpose of prediction of diffusions. Its competition coefficients are estimated by introducing the theory of the niche. The theory of the niche originated from ecology has often been used as a framework for examining the patterns of competition in the media industry. This study develops a new integrated measure, competitive superiority, by modifying and combining the two conventional measures of the theory of the niche, niche overlap and niche superiority. The competition coefficient is then obtained by adjusting competitive superiority to meet constraints to be incorporated into the proposed competitive Bass model.

4차 산업혁명과 항공무인무기체계 발전 전망

설현주 ( Hyeonju Seol ),이수훈 ( Soo Hun Lee ),길병옥 ( Byung-ok Kil ) 미래군사학회 2017 한국군사학논총 Vol.6 No.2

Today, the 4th industrial revolution has become a major issue in all areas of the world, and the defense sector is no exception. In particular, the characteristics of the future battlefields will be further expanded through the main technologies that will lead the 4th industrial revolution. The CPS(Cyber-Physical System) will strengthen the network characteristics and the IoT(Internet of Things) will expand the information gathering ability. In addition, big data technology will contribute to providing quality information, and artificial intelligence will make the best judgment based on the information provided through big data analysis. Finally, the robot performs an operational mission on behalf of human beings. Robots are expected to affect the future weapon system more specifically. UAVs(Unmanned aerial vehicles) are already in the process of being deployed and newly developed. UCAV(Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle) is expected to be used in combination with manned aerial vehicle due to technical limitations, but UAV is expected to replace all existing aircraft. The rate at which the 4th industrial revolution affects our daily lives and national defense is different from that of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd industrial revolutions. Therefore, it is necessary to hasten the investment in research and development of the weapon system. In addition, we must hasten establishment of operational concept based on combined UAV and manned aerial vehicle operations. In the future, it will be necessary to prepare an air operations mission using only UAV.

이동형 장거리 레이더 연구개발 사업의 경제적 파급효과 분석

설현주(Hyeonju Seol),이길영(Gil-Young Lee),엄정식(Jungsik Um) 육군사관학교 화랑대연구소 2017 한국군사학논집 Vol.73 No.1

This paper presents the spillover effects for mobile long-range radar Research and Development(R&D) program to improve Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance(ISR) capability on the national economy. To evaluate the effects using inter-industry analysis, we estimate that the R&D cost of mobile long-range radar system is about 54.2 billion won, assuming the development period to be 5 years from 2017 to 2021. The analysis results show that the inducement effects for production, value added, and employment are 55.7 billion won, 16.6 billion won, and 171 people, respectively. This study provides the good example of how to evaluate the economic spillover effects of developing weapon systems domestically, showing importance and benefits of it.

KF-X 양산 사업의 경제적 파급효과 분석

설현주,Seol, Hyeonju 한국시스템엔지니어링학회 2013 시스템엔지니어링학술지 Vol.9 No.2

This study aims to analyze how much KF-X production impacts on national economy by measuring economic spread effect based on inter-industry analysis. In order to evaluate the economic impact of KF-X production, we used input-output table of year 2007 of Korea. The results shows that KF-X production induces the production of 3,129 billon won and the value added of 1,206 billon won respectively. Also there are the creation of about 13,208 employment in the industry. The results from this study can be used as a basis for the further research on whether or not KF-X production could be processed.

A Study of Psychological Effects of Pilots Depending on the Different Environments between Actual and Simulated Flights

Jinju Kim,Youngcheon Lim,Hyeonju Seol,Cheolkyu Jee,Youngseok Hong 대한인간공학회 2014 大韓人間工學會誌 Vol.33 No.3

Objective: This study aims to examine the psychological effects of pilots caused by the environmental differences between actual and simulated flights by measuring biochemical stress level and subjective stress level. Background: Currently, the flight system of the air force suffers from several problems including a limited training area, increase of complex and tangled missions and rise in oil prices. In order to overcome these problems an L-V-C (Live, Virtual, Constructive) training system has been proposed as a solution. However, to establish the effective L-V-C training system, it is required to figure out the characteristics of each system first. Also we have to solve the problems which could occur when these systems are connected together. Method: In order to measure the biochemical stress level of pilots, we investigated the differences in cortisol responses after actual and simulated flight training separately. Meanwhile, we conducted the questionnaire survey of about 40 pilots to identify the subjective stress level of pilots. Results: There was significant difference in cortisol level between actual and simulated flight tasks. However, we found that there was no significant difference in pilots" feelings about two flight tasks. Conclusion: The results from this study can be used as basis for the further research on not only how to decrease linkage errors of the L system and the V system but also how to make the L-V training system more practical. Application: The results of the analysis might help to develop the Live-Virtual-Constructive (LVC) pilot training system.

한반도에서 재래식 무기의 군비통제 방안 -운용적 군비통제 방안을 중심으로-

이장호 ( Lee Jangho ),설현주 ( Seol Hyeonju ) 미래군사학회 2024 한국군사학논총 Vol.13 No.1

본 논문은 한반도의 재래식 무기의 운용적 군비통제 추진 방안을 모색하는 것이다. 국제사회는 냉전종식 이후 군비통제에 대한 관심과 노력, 대상과 영역 확대를 추진하고 있다. 반면, 한반도는 군비통제보다는 군비증강이라는 심각한 상황으로 전개되고 있어서 이에 대한 진단과 해결방안 모색이 시급하다. 현재 북한은 대한민국을 북한의 주적이라고 공개적 선포와 군비통제에 대한 진정성 부재 그리고 정치적 노선이 극명하게 갈리고 있는 현 상황에서 북한을 믿고 정치적 대화가 가능하겠는가 등의 의구심을 떨칠 수가 없는 실정이다. 더구나 남북한간 위협 인식상의 상호 불균형과 보유 전력과 군사력 운용의 상이성 등의 비대칭성도 단계적·기능적 군비통제 접근방식의 한반도 적용을 어렵게 하는 요인임을 분명히 인식해야 한다. 나아가 이에 대한 포괄적인 대책강구가 한반도 비핵화와 안보를 유지함에 있어 무엇보다도 중요함을 주장하고자 한다. 따라서 세계적인 군비통제 추세에 부응하는 측면에서 한반도군비통제 실현은 군사력을 약화시키는 것이 아니다. 오히려 남북한 양측의 신뢰회복과 교류 및 협력을 통한 위협 감소는 물론 국가이익을 제고할 수 있는 ‘윈-윈 패러다임’이라는 논리를 제공하는 것이다. 이러한 현실적 문제점을 해소하기 위한 군비통제는 선택이 아니라 필연적 사안임을 강조하고 한반도에서 재래식 무기의 군비통제 추진 여건을 분석한 다음 이를 토대로 신뢰회복과 관계개선 등을 통한 운용적 군비통제 추진방안을 중심으로 간략히 제시하고자 한다. This paper aims to explore operational arms control measures for conventional weapons on the Korean Peninsula. In the wake of the Cold War's end, the international community has intensified its focus and efforts on arms control, expanding its scope and objectives. However, the Korean Peninsula is witnessing a concerning trend towards arms buildup rather than arms control, necessitating urgent diagnosis and solutions. Currently, North Korea's political stance, including its public declaration of the Republic of Korea as its main enemy, raises doubts about the feasibility of political dialogue and trust-building. Additionally, asymmetries in threat perception and military capabilities between the two Koreas present challenges in applying a step-by-step arms control approach. Emphasizing the paramount importance of a comprehensive plan for maintaining denuclearization and security on the Korean Peninsula, this paper argues that arms control is not merely an option but an inevitable necessity. By analyzing the conditions for arms control of conventional weapons on the Korean Peninsula, this paper proposes operational arms control promotion plans centered on trust-building and relationship improvement, aligning with global arms control trends.

한일 GSOMIA의 군사적 함의 고찰

이강경 ( Lee Kangkyong ),설현주 ( Seol Hyeonju ) 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 2020 국방연구 Vol.63 No.1

최근 한반도와 동북아의 안보상황은 북한 비핵화 협상의 교착, 남북관계 악화, 미중 무역전쟁, 중국과 러시아의 군사위협 등으로 불확실성이 더욱 증가하고 있다. 특히 2018년 강제징용 피해자에 대한 일본기업의 배상책임 판결 이후 일본 정부가 반도체, 디스플레이 핵심소재에 대한 수출규제에 나서면서 한국은 한일 군사비밀정보보호협정(GSOMIA) 종료를 결정했고, 파기직전 일본과 협의 후 조건부 연기에 합의했다. 일본의 경제보복과 한국의 GSOMIA 관련 대응에 따라 향후 한일관계는 냉각기가 지속될 전망이며 한미일 안보협력체제에도 부정적인 영향요인이 될 것으로 예상된다. 본 연구는 최근 신냉전체제가 심화하고 있는 동북아의 안보현실과 북한의 현실화된 핵·미사일 위협, 한일관계의 특수성을 바탕으로 한일 GSOMIA 유지의 필요성과 군사적 함의를 고찰하였다. 이를 위해 한일관계의 변화와 군사협력 관련 선행연구들을 검토하였고, 한일관계의 역사적 특수성과 구조적 변화과정, 제한적 수준에서의 군사협력 현황을 분석하였다. 또한 한일 GSOMIA 체결과정에서의 주요 쟁점을 평가하였고 국가안보와 군사적 실익, 동맹의 관점에서 협정의 필요성을 제시하였다. 現 안보리스크를 최소화하기 위해서는 한미동맹과 한미일 안보협력체제를 보다 공고히 함과 동시에 한국군의 독자적인 방어능력을 더욱 강화할 필요성이 있다. 결론적으로 한일 GSOMIA는 탈정치적으로 접근해야 할 의제이며 국가이익 및 안보적 관점에서 유지 필요성에 대한 심층적인 논의와 정책결정이 요구된다. The recent security situation on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia has been further raising uncertainties due to the deadlock in North Korea's denuclearization negotiations, worsening inter-Korean relations, the U.S.-China trade war and military threats from China and Russia. In particular, Korea decided to scrap the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) between Korea and Japan, and agreed to a conditional postponement after consultations with Japan shortly before it went into effect as the Japanese government started to restrict exports of key semiconductor and display materials after the ruling on compensation for victims of forced labor in 2018. With Japan's economic retaliation and Korea's GSOMIA-related response, the Korea-Japan relationship is expected to continue to cool down, and it is expected to be a negative factor for the Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation system. This study examined the necessity of maintaining the Korea-Japan GSOMIA and its military implications based on the security realities of Northeast Asia, the North Korean realization of nuclear and missile threats, and the special characteristics of the Korea-Japan relationship. To this end, prior research on military cooperation was reviewed, and the historical characteristics of the Korea-Japan relationship, the process of structural changes, and the status of military cooperation at a limited level were analyzed. It also evaluated the major issues in the process of signing the Korea-Japan GSOMIA and presented the necessity of an agreement in terms of national security, military benefits, alliance and security cooperation. In order to minimize current security risks, it is necessary to further strengthen the ROK-US alliance and the ROK-U.S.-Japan security cooperation system, and at the same time further strengthen the ROK's own defense capabilities. In conclusion, the Korea-Japan GSOMIA is an agenda that should be approached de-politically and requires in-depth discussions and policy decisions on the need to maintain it from a national interest and security perspective.

Roadmapping for prioritisation of smartphone feature requirements based on user experiences

Suh, Yongyoon,Kim, Gilsook,Seol, Hyeonju Carfax Pub. Co 2017 Technology analysis & strategic management Vol.29 No.8

만족도 및 적합성 기반 유망기술의 활용도 평가에 관한 연구

장우석(Wooseok Jang),설현주(Hyeonju Seol) 대한산업공학회 2024 대한산업공학회지 Vol.50 No.4

In the era of Big Blur, a significant number of emerging technologies, have promoted unexpected rapid changes in technological and social developments. However, with radical innovation and change, many potential users rarely estimate how to utilize emerging technologies and their applications. This study proposes a framework for evaluating potential users expectations of emerging technologies. To do this, we gathered various posts in online forums as new data. In addition, we defined and estimated the satisfaction and suitability of emerging technologies through several indices. Then, we evaluated the utilization of emerging technologies by constructing PROMETHEE model which could analyze two heterogeneous variables - satisfaction and suitability. These implications can be used as directions for applying emerging technologies that can bring high utility to potential users in the future.

Towards clinical use of a laser-induced microjet system aimed at reliable and safe drug delivery

Jang, Hun-jae,Yu, Hyeonju,Lee, Seonggeun,Hur, Eugene,Kim, Yoonkwan,Lee, Seol-Hoon,Kang, Naegyu,Yoh, Jack J. SOCIETY OF PHOTO-OPTICAL INSTRUMENTATION ENGINEERS 2014 JOURNAL OF BIOMEDICAL OPTICS Vol.19 No.5