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다중모델에 기초한 위험기상 발생확률 산출을 위한 계층적 통계 모형
진향곤(Hyang Gon Jin),천예지(Ye Ji Chun),김상완(Sang Wan Kim),권순일(Soonil Kwon),손주형(Joohyung Son),김용구(Yongku Kim) 한국데이터정보과학회 2018 한국데이터정보과학회지 Vol.29 No.6
단순한 날씨정보 제공에 초점을 둔 기존의 기상예보를 탈피해 영향예보는 날씨의 변화가 국민들의 안전과 삶의 질 향상에 어떤 영향을 주게 될지에 대한 직접적인 정보를 준다는 점에서 한층 진일보한 예보체계이다. 성공적인 영향예보를 위해서는 위험 기상요소에 대한 확률예측정보가 필요하고, 이를 위해서 기상청에서 활용되고 있는 결정론적 모델들과 앙상블 모델들을 이용하여 영향예보의 한축인 확률예보체계의 정확도와 완성도를 높이고자 한다. 이를 위해서 확률 예측에 사용될 가용모델들을 수집하고, 계층적 통계모형을 이용하여 수집된 3개의 앙상블모델과 3개의 결정론적 모델들을 병합한 위협기상 요소의 확률분포를 구하였다. 이를 통해 최적화된 다중 앙상블 예측체계를 구축하고 고품질의 영향예보 생산을 통한 위협기상 재해예방 및 국민 삶의 질 향상에 기여할 것을 기대된다. The impact forecast is a more advanced forecasting system in that it provides direct information on how the weather changes will affect the safety of the people and the quality of life of the people while the existing weather forecasts focused on providing simple weather information. For the successful impact forecast, it is important to improve the accuracy and completeness of the probability prediction system. For this purpose, the probability distribution of the meteorological element was obtained by combining the three ensemble models and four single models utilized by the Korea Meteorological Administration. The distribution of meteorological element based on multiple model outputs is estimated using the hierarchical statistical model. It is expected to contribute to the prevention of risk of meteorological disasters and improvement of the life quality by constructing optimized multi-ensemble prediction system.
Enhancement of deuterium retention in damaged tungsten by plasma-induced defect clustering
Jin, Younggil,Roh, Ki-Baek,Sheen, Mi-Hyang,Kim, Nam-Kyun,Song, Jaemin,Kim, Young-Woon,Kim, Gon-Ho International Atomic Energy Agency 2017 Nuclear fusion Vol.57 No.12
<P>The enhancement of deuterium retention was investigated for tungsten in the presence of both 2.8 MeV self-ion induced cascade damage and fuel hydrogen isotope plasma. Vacancy clustering in cascade damaged polycrystalline tungsten occurred due to deuterium irradiation and was observed near the grain boundary by using all-step transmission electron microscopy analysis. Analysis of the highest desorption temperature peak using thermal desorption spectroscopy supports reasonable evidence of defect clustering in the damaged polycrystalline tungsten. The defect clustering was neither observed on the damaged polycrystalline tungsten without deuterium irradiation nor on the damaged single-crystalline tungsten with deuterium irradiation. This result implies the synergetic role of deuterium and grain boundary on defect clustering. This study proposes a path for the defect transform from point defect to defect cluster, by the agglomeration between irradiated deuterium and cascade damage-induced defect. This agglomeration may induce more severe damage on the tungsten divertor at which the high fuel hydrogen ions, fast neutrons, and self-ions are irradiated simultaneously and it would increase the in-vessel tritium inventory.</P>
Brain abscess in Korean children: A 15-year single center study
Lee, Cha-Gon,Kang, Seong-Hun,Kim, Yae-Jean,Shin, Hyung-Jin,Choi, Hyun-Shin,Lee, Jee-Hun,Lee, Mun-Hyang The Korean Pediatric Society 2010 Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics (CEP) Vol.53 No.5
Purpose: A brain abscess is a serious disease of the central nerve system. We conducted this study to summarize the clinical manifestations and outcomes of brain abscesses. Methods: A retrospective chart review of pediatric patients diagnosed with brain abscesses from November 1994 to June 2009 was performed at Samsung Medical Center, Seoul, Korea. Results: Twenty-five patients were included in this study. On average, 1.67 cases per year were identified and the median age was 4.3 years. The common presenting clinical manifestations were fever (18/25, 72%), seizure (12/25, 48%), altered mental status (11/25, 44%), and signs of increased intracranial pressure (9/25, 36%). A total of 14 (56%) patients had underlying illnesses, with congenital heart disease (8/25, 32%) as the most common cause. Predisposing factors were identified in 15 patients (60%). The common predisposing factors were otogenic infection (3/25, 12%) and penetrating head trauma (3/25, 12%). Causative organisms were identified in 64% of patients (16/25). The causative agents were $S$ $intermedius$ (n=3), $S$ $aureus$ (n=3), $S$ $pneumoniae$ (n=1), Group B streptococcus (n=2), $E.$ $coli$ (n=1), $P.$ $aeruginosa$ (n=1), and suspected fungal infection (n=5). Seven patients received medical treatment only while the other 18 patients also required surgical intervention. The overall fatality rate was 16% and 20% of patients had neurologic sequelae. There was no statistical association between outcomes and the factors studied. Conclusion: Although uncommon, a brain abscess is a serious disease. A high level of suspicion is very important for early diagnosis and to prevent serious consequences.
진향곤,김상완,김용구,Jin, Hyang Gon,Kim, Sang Wan,Kim, Yongku 한국통계학회 2017 응용통계연구 Vol.30 No.3
국내외적으로 벚꽃의 개화시기와 단풍 시작일에 대한 관련 연구가 많이 되어왔는데, 매해 기상청은 이들에 대하여 보도자료를 통하여 당해 연도 예측시기 및 전년도와의 차이를 발표하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 선형회귀모형을 통해서 이들의 개화시기 및 단풍시기에 영향을 줄 수 있는 월별 평균, 최저, 최고온도, 강수량 그리고 일조량 등과 같은 여러가지 기상변수를 확인하였고 관측되지 않은 지역에 대한 예측을 위해서 기존의 모형에 공간구조를 추가하여 분석하였다. 본 연구에서 제안된 모형을 2009년부터 2016년의 기상청 보도자료에 적용하였고 기존의 기상청 예측값과 비교하였다. 그리고 공간분석을 통해 한반도 전역의 벚꽃 개화시기와 단풍 시작일을 예측하였다. It is important to predict the flowering dates of Japanese cherry and autumnal dates in Korea. Flowering date is decided by heating requirement with daily maximum and minimum temperature used to calculate the pre-determined heating requirements for flowering. Recent, changes in climate have impacted the flowering season of Japanese cherry in Korea. When compared with the current normal, the flowering of Japanese cherry is expected to be about 10 days earlier than in near future normal years. In this paper, we first consider a linear model based on meteorological data that predicts the flowering date and then incorporate a spatial structure into the model. Real data analysis indicates that the proposed approach provides more reasonable predicted dates.
최지혜,진향곤,김용구,Choi, Jihye,Jin, Hyang Gon,Kim, Yongku 한국통계학회 2018 응용통계연구 Vol.31 No.2
부동산 투기근절, 공평과세 목적으로 부동산 실거래 신고제도가 도입된 이후, 정부에서 운영 중인 부동산거래관리시스템에는 연간 약 200만 건의 부동산 실거래 신고자료가 축적되고 있다. 인터넷이 발달하고 정보에 대한 접근성이 높아진 요즘, 부동산 투자에 대한 관심 증가로 부동산 가격정보에 대한 요구도 나날이 증가하고 있다. 하지만 이는 단순히 거래사례에 대한 정보만을 제공할 뿐이라 공동주택 실거래의 경우 동, 호수, 토지건물 실거래의 경우 지번을 개인정보보호 등의 이유로 공개하고 있지 않아 실거래의 위치별 정확한 데이터를 구득하기 어려운 실정이어서 정보의 비대칭성이 여전히 존재하고 이러한 부동산 정보의 특수성이 부동산시장에서의 투기가 근절되지 않는 이유 중 하나이다. 본 논문에서는 축적된 실거래 신고가격 데이터를 활용하여 실거래 미발생 지점에 대한 시세가격 추정 모형을 도출하는 것으로, 부동산 가격이 지리적 위치에 따라 결정되는 특수성을 가지는 것을 고려하여 공간구조가 반영될 수 있도록 공간회귀 모형을 통한 추정 토지 시세가격의 정확도를 살펴보았다. Since the real estate reporting system was first introduced, about 2 million real estate transaction per year have been reported over the last 10 years with an increasing demand for real estate price estimates. This study looks at the applicability and superiority of the regression-kriging method to derive effective real transaction prices estimation on the location where information about real transaction is unavailable. Several issues on predicting the real estate price are discussed and illustrated using the real transaction reports of Jinju, Gyeongsangnam-do. Results have been compared with a simple regression model in terms of the mean absolute error and root square error. It turns out that the regression-kriging model provides a more effective estimation of land price compared to the simple regression model. The regression-kriging method adequately reflects the spatial structure of the term that is not explained by other characteristic variables.