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기체결 FTA 이행에 따른 농산물 관세개방도 분석과 시사점 :
정대희(Dae Hee Chung),한두봉(Doo Bong Han),이상현(Sang Hyeon Lee),Masashiko Gemma 한국농식품정책학회 2017 농업경영정책연구 Vol.44 No.3
Since establishing the 2003 FTA roadmap, Korea has concluded fifteen FTA negotiations with 52 countries. Negotiations have become more complicated than in the past as multilateral FTA negotiations (Mega-FTA) have recently become more prominent. Therefore, the results of FTA negotiations that have already been concluded are becoming more important in future FTA negotiations. The purpose of this study is to analyze the openness of tariffs by agricultural products. As a result, the openness of tariffs on vegetables, short-term income forest products and special crops is low, but the openness of tariffs of meat and some dairy products is high. In addition, it is analyzed that the RCEP negotiation is more affected by the tariff reduction than the TPP negotiation. In particular, since China is involved in the RCEP negotiation, it is necessary to focus more on tariff negotiation. TPP negotiations need to focus on negotiating services and norms.
정대희 ( Dae Hee Chung ),김종진 ( Kim Jongjin ) 한국식품유통학회 2023 한국식품유통학회 학술대회 Vol.2023 No.1
본 연구는 식용유 대체재 간의 가격전이 관계를 통해 유종간의 대체성을 살펴보고, 식용유 국제가격과 국내 수입단가 간의 가격전이 현상을 분석하였다. 대체성 분석결과 유종간에 서로 상이한 대체성이 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 전반적으로 대두유, 팜유, 유채유 간의 대체성이 있는 것으로 나타났고, 야자유는 다른 유종과 대체성이 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 팜유가격은 장기적으로 대두유 가격과의 비대칭적 가격전이가 있는 것으로 분석되었으며, 단기적으로는 유채유 가격과 비대칭적 가격전이가 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 식용유 국제가격과 국내 수입가격 간에는 장기적 가격전이 비대칭성을 발견하기 어려웠다. 그러나 단기적 가격 전이 형태나 시차는 유종별로 차이를 보이고 있다. 국내 식용유 산업은 수입의존도가 높기 때문에 유종간의 대체성을 전략적으로 잘 활용하면 위험관리에 도움이 될 수 있다.
수출 다변화가 우리나라 농식품 수출에 미치는 영향 분석
정대희 ( Dae Hee Chung ),박동주 ( Park Dongjoo ),석준호 ( Seok Junho ) 한국식품유통학회 2024 한국식품유통학회 학술대회 Vol.2024 No.0
본 연구는 수출 다변화가 우리나라 농식품 품목별 수출에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 1986년부터 2022년까지의 총 84개 농식품 품목에 대한 패널 자료를 바탕으로, 다층 모형을 사용하여 수출 다변화의 영향력을 추정하였다. 분석 결과, 수출 다변화는 평균적으로 우리나라 농식품 수출에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나, 품목별로는 효과가 상이하였다. 딸기, 포도와 같은 주요 수출 품목은 수출 다변화가 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤으나, 고추와 돼지뼈 등은 부정적인 효과를 보였다. 즉, 소비의 범용성이 높고 경쟁력이 높은 품목이 다변화에 적합한 품목임을 알 수 있었다. 이러한 연구 결과를 토대로 우리나라 농식품 수출 촉진을 위해서 수출 다변화를 위한 지원 정책의 확대, 품목별 특성에 맞춘 수출 다변화 전략 마련, 가격 경쟁력 확보를 위한 정책 지원 강화 등이 요구된다.
동남아시아 국가들의 한국 농식품 수입 가능 계층 식별을 위한 연구
정대희(Dae-Hee Chung),석준호(Jun-Ho Seok) 한국무역연구원 2023 무역연구 Vol.19 No.1
Purpose – The objective of this paper is to test whether low income countries in South-East Asian countries can import the high price and quality agri-food products of South Korea. Specifically, we divide consumers in these regions based on income level (Average, Top 10%, and Top 1% GDP per capita) to examine the exportability of those goods to South-East Asian countries. Design/Methodology/Approach – Utilizing the panel Granger causality test method of Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012), we examine which income segments in those regions can consume the high price, quality and agri-food products of Korea. Additionally, this study also uses the panel impulse-response function to figure out the which segments are more inclined to buy agri-food products of Korea. Findings – Results of the panel Granger causality test show that the incomes of only the top 10% and 1% segments of these countries lead to agri-food imports from Korea. Results of the panel impulse response function report that the top 1% segment of income group imports more compared to the top 10% segments of the income group. Research Implications – Our results imply that high quality and high price agri-food products of Korea can be exported to low-income South and South-East Asian countries. Our approach also presents that the gravity model specification smight need to be modified according to the characteristics of products.
이상현(Sang Hyeon Lee),정대희(Dae Hee Chung),안수정(Soojung Ahn) 한국농촌경제연구원 2015 한국농촌경제연구원 정책연구보고서 Vol.- No.-
The 12-country’s Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations were finally concluded on 5 October 2015 through 19 times of official meetings as well as several ministerial meetings and informal meetings. The text of TPP agreement consists of 30 chapters including elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers. In addition, it includes provisions on Rules of Origin, Trade Remedies, Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS), Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT), Investment, Cross Border Trade in Services, Financial Services, Telecommunications, Electronic Commerce, Government Procurement, Competition Policy, State-Owned Enterprises, Intellectual Property, Labour, Environment, Cooperating and Capacity Building, Competition and Business Facilitation, Development, Small and Medium-sized Businesses, Regulatory Coherence, Transparency and Anti-Corruption, Administrative and Institutional Provisions, Dispute Settlement, Exceptions etc. Since TPP negotiations were focused on opening markets of all goods, TPP was a pressing issue for Korea to which the agricultural industry responds very sensitively. Most of the TPP participants including the US have put efforts to consider internal sensitiveness using various ways. Thus, when we enter TPP, it is expected that Korea will secure a certain level of sensitiveness. On the other hand, it would be not easy to present its bargaining power if Korea participates alone. Moreover, Korea has already concluded Free Trade Agreements (FTA) with most of the TPP participants and the level of tariffs varies depending on the FTAs. This may cause higher level of tariff reduction. Therefore, it is needed to establish a strategy which can secure Korea’s sensitiveness enough by referring to negotiation results among the TPP members. Given that there are countries which have intention to participate in TPP negotiations such as Taiwan, the Philippines, Colombia, Thailand etc., the second round would be better for Korea to negotiate with new members. Besides, since TPP has set stronger and stricter standards on Rules than existing WTO level, it is expected for Korea to change its overall system. Thus, Korea needs to analyse impact of TPP and prepare more throughly.
송주호(Joo-Ho Song),정대희(Dae-Hee Chung) 한국관세학회 2014 관세학회지 Vol.15 No.1
When analyzing the protection rate of processed products, tariffs of raw or intermediate products should be considered together with the tariffs of final products. This study calculates the effective protection rates for processed food products and raw agricultural products in Korea using an input-output table. The estimation results show that tariff escalation is not prominent in highly processed products. Furthermore, the effective rates of protection and nominal rate of protection for raw agricultural product are lower than those of processed products. It is somewhat an unexpected result considering that Korea has maintained high tariffs for many agricultural raw products and relatively low tariffs for processed products. Main reason is that many processing companies can import raw products with low in-quota tariff rates within the TRQ system.