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Merton의 거시 수준 아노미 이론은 여전히 유효한가? - 미국 50개 주의 세 가지 유형의 범죄율을 중심으로
송효종 한국형사법무정책연구원 2022 형사정책연구 Vol.131 No.-
The present study aims to examine whether the criminogenic mechanism proposed by Robert K. Merton (1938, 1968) is applicable to explain a variation in macro-level crime rates. Using the fifty states in the U.S. as the units of analysis, I measured the core theoretical concepts of the theory, cultural and social structures, and examined whether the categories of society based on the combinations of both types of structures can predict state level crime rates. As a result of the analysis, I found different outcomes depending on type of crime, which includes a partial support for the theory as well as evidence conflicting with the theory. In both instrumental crime and violent crime, crime rates tend to be higher in the states where the level of the anomic cultural structure is low and that of the unequal social structure is high, which is contrary to the propositions of the theory. In cybercrime, in contrast, rates of cybercrime tend to be higher in states with stronger anomic cultural structure and unequal social structure, which is consistent with the theory. The research findings suggest the possibility that the macro-level mechanism of crime proposed by Merton is better applicable to explain cybercrime than traditional forms of crime today. 본 연구는 Robert K. Merton(1938, 1968)의 거시 수준 아노미 이론에서 제시된 범죄발생의 메커니즘이 실제로 거시 수준에서의 범죄율 변이를 설명할 수 있는지 검증하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 미국 50개 주를 분석단위로 하여 이론의 핵심 개념인 문화 및 사회구조를 경험적으로 측정하였고, 이들의 조합을 통해 분류된 사회의 유형이 범죄율과 어떤 관계를 맺고 있는지를 살펴보았다. 분석 결과 범죄의 유형에 따라 이론이 제시한 전망들에 일부 부합하거나 상반되는 패턴을 확인할 수 있었다. 경제적목표지향범죄와 폭력범죄의 경우, 이론의 전망과는 반대로 불평등한 사회구조에서 아노미적 문화의 경향이 약한 주에서 오히려 높은 범죄율이 나타나는 결과를 보였다. 반면 사이버범죄의 경우, 이론의 전망과 유사하게 불평등한 사회구조에서 아노미적 문화의 경향이 강한 주에서 대체적으로 높은 범죄율이 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 Merton이 전망한 거시 수준의 범죄발생 메커니즘이 오늘날 전통적 범죄보다 사이버범죄를 설명하는데 더 잘 적용될 가능성이 있음을 보여준다.
Multi-resolution Hybrid Data Assimilation Core on a Cubed-sphere Grid (HybDA)
송효종,하지현,권인혁,김정한,권지혜 한국기상학회 2018 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.54 No.-
This study illustrates the characteristics of the data assimilation system at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS), based on the cubed-sphere grid system. The most interesting feature is the use of spherical harmonic functions defined on cubed-sphere grid points, which makes it possible to control the allowable physical wavenumber for the analysis increments. The relevant computational costs and parallel scalability are represented. The multiple-resolution approach is a distinguishable aspect of this data assimilation system. The wavenumber, up to which the analysis is conducted, increases as the outer iteration progresses. This multiresolution strategy is based on an investigation into the change of spectral components of analysis increments. The multi-resolution outer-loop provides cost-effective analysis-improvement, by explicitly controlling the analysis increments entered into the observation operator. To utilize the high-resolution deterministic forecast as a background state, it is subtracted from the forecast ensemble, to produce ensemble forecast perturbation that is hybridized with static background error covariance. Based on the cycled analysis experiments, the higher-resolution deterministic forecast is shown to preserve the high-frequency feature of the analysis increment relative to the ensemble mean forecast.
Development of an Operational Hybrid Data Assimilation System at KIAPS
권인혁,송효종,하지현,전형욱,강전호,이시혜,임수정,조영순,한현준,정한별,권희내,신설은,김태훈 한국기상학회 2018 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.54 No.-
This study introduces the operational data assimilation (DA) system at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) to the numerical weather prediction community. Its development history and performance are addressed with experimental illustrations and the authors’ previously published studies. Milestones in skill improvements include the initial operational implementation of three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar), the ingestion of additional satellite observations, and changing the DA scheme to a hybrid four-dimensional ensemblevariational DA using forecasts from an ensemble based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). In the hybrid system, determining the relative contribution of the ensemble-based covariance to the resultant analysis is crucial, particularly for moisture variables including a variety of horizontal scale spectra. Modifications to the humidity control variable, partial rather than full recentering of the ensemble for humidity further improves moisture analysis, and the inclusion of more radiance observations with higher-level peaking channels have significant impacts on stratosphere temperature and wind performance. Recent update of the operational hybrid DA system relative to the previous 3DVar system is described for detailed improvements with interpretation.