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서승환(Seo Seung Hwan) 한국지역학회 2003 지역연구 Vol.19 No.3
지가변화율을 이용하여 부동산 경기변동의 인식, 부동산 경기변동의 결정요인 분석 및 과거 부동산 정책에 평가를 수행하였다. 부동산 경기변동은 확장기가 3 - 4년이고 수축기는 8 - 9년인 비대칭적인 사이클(cycle)을 갖는다. 한편, 부동산 경기변동의 결정요인인 경제성장률, 물가상승률, 주가변화율 및 금리변화율 등이 지가상승를에 미치는 효과는 경기국면에 따라 상이한 것으로 나타났다. 부동산 정책을 정량화하여 수행한 회귀분석의 결과는 그 동안 집행된 부동산 정책은 부동산 경기변동에 따라 규제강화 및 규제완화가 반복된 미봉책이었음을 나타낸다. 또한, 선제적 부동산 정책이나 부동산 경기변동과 무관한 일관된 부동산 정책을 시용하는 경우 부동산 가격이 안정될 가능성이 매우 높은 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 부동산 정책 수단을 경기변동과 무관하게 장기적인 정책목표를 달성하는 수단과 경기변동에 신축적으로 대응하는 수단으로 나누어 관리하는 것이 부동산 가격의 안정 측면에서 바람직할 수 있다는 것을 시사한다. By using the rate of change in the land price, the perception and the analysis of determinants of the real estate business cycle, and the appraisal of the past real estate policies have been proceeded. Korean real estate business cycle is asymmetric, i.e., the expansion and contraction period of which is 3-4 years and 8-9 years respectively. Effects of determinants of real estate business cycle are dependent upon the phase of the cycle. Results of the regression, which explicitly include the quantified real estate policies, indicate that past real estate policies were myopic and were very much cycle dependent. It also has been found highly probable that preemtive policies of fixed rules may stabilize the real estate price more effectively than the myopic ones. This implies that, in addition to cycle dependent short term real estate policies, it might be more desirable to sustain cycle independent long term real estate policies.
서승환 ( Seo Seung Hwan ),이상학 ( Lee Sang Hag ),정기웅 ( Jeong Gi Ung ) 한국국제통상학회 2003 국제통상연구 Vol.8 No.1
With the explicit consideration of the structural change, this paper constructs the Economic Performance Index(EPI) by integrating economic growth rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate and the current account. Intranational and international comparisons among Korean, US, and Japanese EPIs have been derived. Intranational analyses indicate that the EPI of each country properly reveals the typical history of each country`s economic situation and performance. Especially in case of Korea, it has been found that the EPIs significantly dropped at the end of each political regime with no exceptions. Results of International comparisons are as follows. First, the EPI of Korea is relatively largely affected by other countries compared with the US and Japan. In detail, the Korean economic growth and the balance of payment are mostly affected by Japan while the inflation rate is largely affected by the US. Second, even though the EPI of the US is least affected by other countries among these three nations, the inflation rate and balance of payments are slightly affected by Japan. Last, even though the EPI of Japan is mostly affected by the US, effects of Korea and US upon the Japanese balance of payments are almost the same.