코로나19 발생 전후 상권 생존율 변화 분석 - 서울 강남구와 대구 수성구를 중심으로

박진백,김민섭,Park, Jinbaek,Kim, Minseop 국제문화기술진흥원 2022 The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technolo Vol.8 No.6

This study analyzed the survival rate of commercial districts before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 by analyzing Gangnam-gu, Seoul and Suseong-gu, Daegu as independent regions, although the background and distribution of commercial districts are similar. In the basic analysis, the size of the commercial districts was much larger in Gangnam-gu, Seoul, but it was confirmed that the distribution by industry was similar. In both regions, there were more openings than closings before the outbreak of COVID-19 in common, but as the COVID-19 outbreak occurred, the closure ratio of businesses centered on face-to-face services increased significantly. As a result of the survival analysis, it was analyzed that most industries were indifferent to the risk of closure of private institutes before Corona 19, but after the outbreak of Corona 19, it was confirmed that the risk of closure of private institutes increased, especially in Daegu, which was the initial spread of Corona 19. As a result of comparing the survival rate between regions, it was analyzed that the risk of business closure in Gangnam-gu increased relatively after the outbreak of Corona 19, confirming that the contraction in the commercial area of Seoul with a large floating population was greater.

주택가격과 사교육비가 합계출산율에 미치는 영향과 기여율 추정에 관한 연구

박진백 ( Park¸ Jinbaek ) 한국사회보장학회 2021 사회보장연구 Vol.37 No.4

This study analyzes the effects of housing prices and private education expenses on the total fertility rate for 16 metropolitan governments in South Korea from 2009 to 2020, and estimates the contribution rates of each variable to the decline in the TFR. As a result of analysis with the dynamic panel model, the current year's TFR is positive affected by the TFR for the previous year, and the increase in apartment sales and jeonse prices in the previous year is analyzed to reduce the TFR for the current year. Also, consistently in all analyses, it is analyzed that the increase in per capita private education expenses in the previous year decreased the TFR. Macroscopically, the TFR improves when the economy grew, and the TFR worsens when unemployment increased in the previous year. It is analyzed that the high participation group in private education shows a very strong response to the increase in private education expenses. The low participation group in private education is analyzed to avoid childbirth because it is more strongly influenced by the housing price than the high participation group. Through the Shapley decomposition, the impact of the previous year's TFR is 23.2~27.4%, and the impact of the previous year's private education expenses is 22.5~32.5%. The housing price is analyzed at a relatively small level of 8.6~14.0%, and it is analyzed that the influence of the jeonse price is greater than the housing sale price.

재정건전화가 경제성장에 미치는 영향 - 경기변동을 중심으로 -

박진백 ( Jinbaek Park ) 한국재정정책학회 2017 財政政策論集 Vol.19 No.4

This paper investigates the effect of fiscal consolidation on economic growth. First I identify fiscal consolidation episodes according to the definition of the gradual fiscal consolidation that means that although the cyclically-adjusted primary balance has improved less than 1.5 % over a year, improvements have not been made over the last three years, and not more than 0.5 % in comparison to the previous year using 25 OECD countries data over 1974-2010. I use the episode dummy variable to estimate the propensity of a government to solve a fiscal imbalance under the conditional fixed effect logistic model. And then I use this latent variable as key variable in panel growth model. In the results, I find that there exist non-Keynesian effects in the recession, but Keynesian channels in the economic prosperity.

전매제한 규제정책의 주택가격 안정화 효과와 전매시장과 재고주택시장간 전이효과

박진백(Jinbaek Park) 한국정책분석평가학회 2019 政策分析評價學會報 Vol.29 No.2

보유세와 거래세가 주택가격에 미치는 영향

박진백 ( Jinbaek Park ) 한국재정정책학회 2018 財政政策論集 Vol.20 No.3

This paper investigates the effect of tax policy on the housing prices. The real estate tax policy is implemented to strengthen or ease regulations for stabilizing the housing prices and easing the volatility. This study analyzes the impact of the property holding taxes and transaction taxes on housing prices using unbalanced panel data from 1980 to 2015 in 35 OECD countries. In the regression results, I find that raising the tax rate in countries with low property holding tax rate could lead to stabilization of the housing prices, but the tax policy does not induce the stable housing prices in countries with highly transaction tax rates, such as Korea.

금리의 주택가격 상승 기여도 추정

박진백(Jinbaek Park),이태리(Taly I),오민준(Minjoon Oh) 한국주택학회 2021 주택연구 Vol.29 No.4

본 연구는 금리가 주택가격변동률에 미치는 영향과 기여 수준을 추정하였다. 주요 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 2011년 이후 금융시장 구조전환 존재 여부를 분석한 결과, 저금리 기조로 전환된 2019년 7월이 금융시장 구조전환 시기로 분석되었다. 금융시장 구조전환 전후 특징을 살펴보면, 주택담보대출 증가량은 문재인 정부가 시작된 2017년 5월부터 2019년 6월까지 증가량에 비해 금융시장 구조전환 이후 시기에 약 1.46배 증가하였고, 동시기 주택가격이 급격히 상승한 것이 확인된다. 둘째, 주택가격 변동률 영향요인에 대해 회귀분석한 결과 금리 인하는 주택가격 상승과 관계있으며, 이는 주택공급이나 주택수요에 의한 효과보다 더 강한 것으로 분석되었다. 셋째, 샤플리 분해를 통해 주택가격 변동 기여를 추정한 결과, 금융시장 구조전환 이후 금리에 의한 주택가격 변동 영향력이 34.3~44.5%로 다른 변수와 비교하여 기여율이 월등히 높은 것을 확인하였다. 넷째, 패널VAR에 기초한 예측오차분산분해 분석 결과, 금융시장 구조전환 시점 이전 향후 12~24개월 이내 금리가 주택가격 상승 원인으로 작동할 것이 전망되었다. 본 연구의 분석결과를 종합한 결과, 최근 주택가격 상승의 주요 원인은 금리 인하에 있었다고 판단된다. This study aims at estimating the effect of interest rates on change rate of housing price and level of contribution. Main findings are as follows. Firstly, as a result of the existence of structural break in financial market after 2011 using structural break test, we found that there was a structural break in financial market around July 2019 under the circumstances of low interest rates. Examining the characteristics of changes in financial market by comparing before with after, we verified the 1.46-fold increase in residential mortgage and the rapid increase in housing prices after the structural break(July 2019) comparing with the period between May 2017(inauguration of the current government) and June 2019. Secondly, according to the result of regression analysis, an increase in housing prices is closely related to a fall in interest rates. Particularly, the effect of interest rates on housing prices was stronger than that of housing supply factor and housing demand factor. Thirdly, another finding which is related to the analysis of the contribution on changes in housing prices with Shapley Decompotion is strong contribution of interest rates during the period of post financial structural break(34.3~44.5%) comparing with the contribution of other variables. Lastly, According to results on the basis of Variance Decomposition of Panel VAR estimation, it is analyzed that interest rate works as a main factor of an increase in housing prices within 12~24 months after structural break point. Thus, the main conclusion of this study is that a decrease in interest rates was one of the key factors of current increasing housing prices.

산업재해 발생이 산업생산성에 미치는 효과

이재희,임진석,박진백,Lee, Jaehee,Lim, Jin Seok,Park, Jinbaek 한국안전학회 2021 한국안전학회지 Vol.36 No.1

This study aims to analyze an influence of industrial accident on industrial productivity. We analyzed relationship among industrial accident, labor force, and industrial productivity using vector error correction model (VECM). The data used in the analysis were the number of industrial accidents, the number of workers, and index of all industry production from January 2008 to June 2017 in Korea. Finally, the industrial accidents have played a role in reducing labor force and industrial productivity.

주택가격과 주택공급이 출산율에 미치는 영향: 서울시를 중심으로

이재희(Lee, Jaehe),박진백(Park, Jinbaek) 한국생활과학회 2020 한국생활과학회지 Vol.29 No.5

금리충격이 오피스텔의 월세 점유전환에 미치는 영향 연구

김민섭(Kim, Min Sub),박진백(Park, Jinbaek) 한국산업경제학회 2023 산업경제연구 Vol.36 No.6

This study examined the determinants affecting the conversion of officetel tenancy from jeonse (lump-sum deposit lease) to monthly rent, focusing on factors like exclusive use area, geographical location, interest rates, and floor level. The data comprised actual officetel jeonse rental transactions from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, along with household loan interest rates from the Bank of Korea, spanning January 2011 to October 2022. Key findings include: Reduced exclusive use areas were associated with a preference for monthly rentals. Officetels in regional areas showed a stronger preference for monthly rent than those in metropolitan zones. If anticipated future interest rates exceed past rates, tenants are more inclined to opt for monthly rent over jeonse. This is attributed to the increased costs associated with procuring jeonse funds under high-interest environments. Higher floor officetels were more likely to switch to monthly rent. Using the Schoenfeld residual test, it was observed that the relationship with interest rate changes varied after 48 months of residence. Specifically, an increased interest rate influenced monthly rent preference more for tenancies exceeding 48 months than those under this duration. In summary, this research highlights the nuanced interplay of various factors on officetel tenancy preferences and underscores the pivotal role of interest rates, especially for longer-term residencies.