외교여론 양극화 가설의 허와 실: 이라크 전쟁과 미국여론

남궁곤 경남대학교 극동문제연구소 2007 한국과 국제정치 Vol.23 No.1

Some American scholars of public opinion argue that American people are polarized in their attitudes toward the U.S. foreign policy and its conduction of the Iraqi War. This study explores the propriety and validity of the argument by analyzing the 2006 CCFR foreign policy survey. Concerning the relationship between the Iraqi War and American public opinion, I formulate and test some hypotheses. I found that American public opinion is divided into two groups in attitudes toward the evaluation of the Iraqi War. The distribution of American public opinion is obviously bi-modal. It is also found that American opinion of the Iraqi War is closely correlated into their other general foreign policy attitudes. Their evaluation of Iraqi War is comparable to their cognition of foreign policy goals such as Islam fundamentalism and anti-terror measures. The bi-modal distribution of American public opinion is significantly explained by their ideological stance and party identification. It is acceptable to argue that American public opinion is polarized in terms of their division of Iraqi War opinion. It is argued that the division of American public opinion is to be understood from their property of internationalism. A majority of American people has been approving U.S. international roles, but disapproving the Iraqi War before the war broke out. There is a gap between the Bush Administration's policy and American public opinion of the war.

오바마 시대 ‘자유 국제주의 이념 3.0 버전’의 운영체계와 구성요소

남궁곤 한국사회과학연구회 2014 동향과 전망 Vol. No.

이 글은 미국 자유 국제주의 이념 변동의 폭과 범위가 오바마 대통령에게서 얼마나 그리고 어떻게 발현되고 있는지를 규명한다. 이를 위해 오바마 자유 국제주의이념의 구성요소를 제시하고 이를 분석한다. 오바마 대통령의 자유 국제주의 이념 구성요소는 전통적인 미국의 자유 국제주의 노선에서 일탈하지는 않는다. 오바마 시대 자유 국제주의 3.0 버전의 변동 폭과 범위는 전통적인 자유 국제주의 이념이 추구해 왔던 탈주권적 균등주의, 민주주의, 공동안보 그리고 제도주의 가치를 중시하는 틀 안에 있다. 그렇다고 오바마 대통령에게 자유 국제주의 이념의 자율적 공간이 배제된 것은 아니다. 오바마대통령이 추구하는 개별 주권의 운용 능력 분포는 위계적이지 않고 보다 균등하고 병렬적이다. 오바마에게 민주주의 가치가 적을 섬멸시키는 승리 도구로 사용되는 것보다는 분쟁과 갈등 지역에서 탈출전략 도구로 둔갑하게 된 것도 전통적노선과 차이다. 오바마의 공동안보 영역은 공격적이고 명백한 물리력에 집중하는 것보다는 문제 해결 기반이 탈근대적 사고에 있다. 국제적 개입 유형에서도제한적 개입을 선호하고 이른바 미니 다자주의를 선호하고 있다는 점에서 독자성이 있다. 오바마 대통령이 전통적인 자유 국제주의 이념 계승과 변동 폭은 그가 추진하는전략에 그대로 반영되고 있는데 수위 전략과 역외균형 전략과 대립된다. 오바마250 동향과 전망 92호행정부가 과도한 군사개입을 피해 군사적 경제적 부담을 경감하고 대신 외교적협력 망을 구축해서 문제를 해결하는 방식을 채택하고 있다고 보는 것이 타당해보인다. This study intends to explore the variance of American liberal internationalismin the Obama period. As a frame of analysis, it adopts the conceptof ‘Liberal Internationalism 3.0 Version’. The main components of thetraditional liberal internationalism does not disappear in the Obama’s foreignpolicy belief. In particular, the variance of Obama’s liberal internationalismdoes not go beyond the traditional focus such as post-sovereignequality, democratism, common security, and institutional values. However,it is also found that Obama makes efforts to pursue his own strategy respondingto the new environment. He prefer exit strategies or mini-lateralapproaches to active intervention or fighting his foes. He is likely to solveworld problems through diplomatic cooperation network.

미국 부시 행정부 외교안보 관료의 안보관과 한반도 정책

남궁곤,이상현 평화문제연구소 2002 統一問題硏究 Vol.14 No.2

This paper intends to predict the Bush administration``s security policy toward the Korean Peninsular by analyzing advisory staff``s view of security. The author explores ideas and thoughts which President Bush and his staff members have about foreign affairs and classifies their ideology. The President Bush``s ideology focuses on American Exceptionalism, which states American excellence over other nations and American involvement into everywhere in the world. President Bush also provides strong Moralism which results in U.S. asking some rogue states to abandon threats to world peace. In addition to President Bush, Dick Cheney, Vice President, Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defense, Paul Wolfowitz, Deputy Secretary of Defense, and Robert Zoellick, Representative of USTR are classified into Hard-liners Group. By contrast, Colin Powell, Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, Deputy Secretary of State, James Kelly, Assistant Secretary of Defense, and John Negroponte, US Ambassador to United Nations are classified into the Moderate Group. The analysis of documents available concerning Bush``s staff members shows that the Bush Administration``s policy could be overall conservative and embarrassing. This implies the vague situation of East Asia``s emerging security environment. The disturbance between the United States and North Korea would be a factor to worsen tension in North East Asia. The South Korean government are forced to coordinate multi-level relationship between the United State and North Korea. In this case, the Moderate Group members inside the Bush Administration are preferred.

필리핀 친족 정치체제에서 여성의 정치참여 한계에 관한 연구

남궁곤,조윤주 이화여자대학교 한국여성연구원 2008 여성학논집 Vol.25 No.1

친족 정치는 필리핀 여성들의 정치참여를 제고시키는 자원이자 원동력으로 간주된다. 친족 정치는 다른 한편으로는 실질적인 정치과정에서 오히려 필리핀 여성정치를 왜곡시키고 그 발전 가능성을 저지한다. 이 연구는 필리핀 친족 정치를 사회자본 특성과 가부장제 성격의 이중적 속성을 가진 것으로 파악하여 어떤 측면에서 친족 정치가 여성의 정치참여를 촉진하면서 또한 제약하는지 분석한다. 필리핀 친족 정치는 여성들의 정치진입 과정에 이중적 영향력을 행사한다. 친족집단 내에 존재하는 사회자본을 통해 여성들은 다른 친족들로부터 적극적인 후원을 얻는다. 대중들과 정치가문 사이에 형성된 사회자본은 정치가문 출신 여성들의 정치진출을 용이하게 한다. 그러나 이것은 지배가문 여성들에게만 해당되는 것으로서 대중 여성들의 정치진출을 저해한다. 지배가문 여성들 역시 남성과 동등한 입장에서 정치에 참여하는 것이 아니라, 사적 가부장성에 의해 비공식 정치영역에 집중함으로서 성별 귀속적인 분리장벽을 경험한다. 또한 남성 친족들과의 관계에서 종속되고 의존적인 성향을 습득한 친족여성들은 주로 선거에 출마한 친족남성들의 보조자 역할만을 담당하거나, 부득이하게 친족남성들이 선거에 출마하지 못할 때 대신 정치에 진출하는 한계를 보여준다. 친족 정치와 그것의 가부장적 성격으로 인한 폐해는 여성들의 공직 수행과정에도 계속해서 나타난다. 친족남성대신 급조되어 출마한 여성정치인들은 주체적인 동기부여나 기본적 자질, 능력 등이 구비되지 않은 경우가 많아 상대적으로 남성정치인들보다 미숙한 모습을 보인다. 또한 친족여성이 정치에 진출할 수 있도록 후원한 가문구성원들은 서로 간에 존재하는 사회자본을 바탕으로 자신들의 투자 결과를 기대하게 되면서 친족 여성에게 이권과 관련된 압력을 가한다. 이러한 폐해와 함께 그것이 지닌 가부장성에 의해 여성정치인들은 자신의 매력이나 감성적 수단들을 사용하여 남성정치인들을 설득하는 종속적 태도를 보이거나, 가부장적 편견에 의해 한정된 영역에서만 활동하게 된다. According to the statistics, Philippine women appear to actively participate in the politics. The existing discussion agrees that kinship politics is the source and the power of women to participate in politics. However, this argument overlooks the fact that kinship politics can distort and hinder the possibility of the development of women's politics in the Philippines. This argument has an implication for understanding Philippine kinship politics in respect to the dual characteristics-social capital and patriarchy. In what way does kinship politics either accelerate or constrain the political participation of women. The characteristic of Philippine kinship politics exercises dual(bi-dimensional) influence on the process for women's entering politics. Women obtain strong support from the members in kinship group through the social capital existing in the kinship group. On the other hand, the social capital between mass public and political families facilitates political participation of women from political families. This mechanism constitutes a good environment for women politicians. However, this case applies only to women from political families, making it a very rare case for women with an ordinary family background. On the other hand, even women with such a good family background experience gender-oriented security barriers as they concentrate on the informal political area instead of the general political area on equal terms with men. This situation is caused by a private patriarchal system. In addition, the kinship women who have become dependent on and subordinated to men usually limit themselves playing the role of an assistant for male electoral candidates or participating in politics only to substitute for men when they are not available. The side effect caused by the patriarchal character of the kinship politics also appears in the process of women’s government service. Being nominated to substitute for male candidates, women politicians often lack a self-motive or basic capability as a politician and often show unprofessional conduct in comparison to male politicians. The members of the kinship who claim their share of the investment based on the trust-social capital which connects them, pressure their family women politician, regarding their various interests. With these abuses of the kinship politics, its patriarchal character exerts an evil influence on women’s political careers. Women are likely to make use of their personal attractiveness or other emotional means to persuade male politicians and to become subordinated to them. At the same time they conduct limited activities due to the patriarchal prejudice.

9/11테러 이후 미국 국제주의 여론의 지속성과 변동에 관한 실증연구

남궁곤 경남대학교 극동문제연구소 2005 한국과 국제정치 Vol.21 No.3

By analyzing public opinion data provided by CCFR, this study intends to explore the continuity and change of American public opinion toward foreign affairs since the 9/11 terror. It is argued that American public opinion has showed a strong trend of internationalism since the beginning of the Cold War and its aftermath. The trend of internationalism has survived the end of the Cold War as well as 9/11 terror. The 9/11 terror had a great impact on American public opinion. More American people than those before 9/11 are inclined to support the Government’s measures of attack terrorists and their training camp. American peoples’ perception of terror, however, rose before the 9/11 terror. Since the demise of the Cold War, American people has regarded non-traditional threats such as terror, environment, and biological weapons as the main foreign policy aims. As well as the 9/11 terror, American people have concerned about other foreign policy issues. They have supported the limited US roles in the international stage. Obviously American people have supported US interventions into international events. However, they strongly opposed to US hegemony and its police role in the international affairs.

State-led Back-scratching Alliance in Cyber Warfare China’s Strategies in Sino-American Cyber Warfare in the Post-Cold War Era

남궁곤,최슬아 한국국제정치학회 2013 The Korean Journal of International Studies Vol.11 No.2

The confluence of the end of the Cold War, globalization, and the information revolution created a new space not only for the emergence of cyber warfare but for non-state actors as major participants. This growing phenomenon raises questions the relationship between the state and society in cyber warfare. Whether traditional capacity of the state has declined is debatable; however, private actors have gradually been empowered. This paper argues that cyber warfare shows a new or at least novel type of the state-society relationship, or state-led back-scratching alliance. The state, continuing to be resilient, has redefined and redeployed its roles of mobilizing private actors on the one hand while regulating them on the other. Depending on the state’s strategic interests, the state can choose and combine one of these strategies in cyber warfare, in the form of selective censorship, unofficial condoning, coercive collaboration and reciprocal partnership. This paper analyzes thirteen cases of China’s cyber warfare against the United States to examine in detail how the state has redefined its role in cyber warfare and to evaluate whether redeployment involves more or less state capacity.

STIP(1999) 이후 구성주의 방법론 논쟁

남궁곤 한국국제정치학회 2006 한국국제정치학회 학술대회 발표논문집 Vol.- No.-

탈냉전기의 미일관계 : 일본 내 친미여론의 사회적 배경에 관한 연구

남궁곤 고려대학교一民국제관계연구원 2004 국제관계연구 Vol.9 No.1

This article aims to ascertain whether and to what extent the income, occupation and educational level of a Japanese individual separately or jointly affect their image of the United States. The paper concludes that there are some connections between the socioeconomic variables of the Japanese and their images of the United States. That is, the cognitive, affective, and behavioral dimensions of Japanese attitudes towards the United States are not independent from the socioeconomic status of respondents. Favorable images of the United States are far more common among the affluent Japanese than among the poor. Recognition of the importance of the United States to Japan and affective feelings towards the United States are also more widely shared among Japanese opinion?leaders such as decision?makers, professionals and management groups. Among the socioeconomic variables that are considered in this article, a higher educational level is most likely to signify a favorable image of the United States. Favorable images of the United States and the acknowledgment of the United States' importance to Japan's well? being are more widespread among the highly educated Japanese than the less-educated. Similarly, positive evaluations of the United States' role during the post-Cold War era are more frequently expressed among the highly educated and affluent than the less-educated and poor. It is argued that the attitudes of the attentive Japanese public towards the United States are different from that of the general public. This reasoning suggests that the attitudes of the attentive public towards the United States will be similar to those of the Japanese elite because the socioeconomic status and background of the attentive public are generally closer to those of the elite than to the rest of the mass public. This reasoning can also be applied to the fact that elements of the internationalist worldview are more widely embraced by the elite than the general public because better-educated people are more attentive to foreign policy and supportive of a more active Japanese role in the international community.

국가 이미지(national images)론의 중심 테제와 국제정치적 의의

남궁곤 시민정치학회 2002 시민정치학회보 (고황정치학회보) Vol.5 No.-

Two Faces of Transnational Finance Capital in American Foreign Policy: The Case of J.P. Morgan during the Interwar Period (1919-1939)

남궁곤,오현경 고려대학교 일민국제관계연구원 2011 국제관계연구 Vol.16 No.1

The purpose of this study is to explore American Transnational Finance Capital’s initiative to build American financial hegemony during the interwar period (1919-1939). This study specifically focuses on one of the world’s oldest, largest, and best known banks, J.P. Morgan & Company. This study argued that TFC led the construction of American hegemony in interwar years. Signs of will to build hegemony away from isolationism had already surfaced at market level during the interwar period. That hegemonic ambition was driven by American TFC’s initiative. TFC’s initiative operated through two phases to protect and expand their profits: domestically, through strategically acquiescing to the regulations of both government and congress, and internationally, by implementing aggressive strategy to influence the formulation of American foreign economic policy. American government supported American TFC by offering chances to participate in international postwar economic settlements such as the Dawes and Young Plan, and passing pro-trust acts. However, the congress based on anti-financial capital sentiments regulated TFC through Pecora and Nye hearings. The present study emphasizes TFC’s strategic initiative to change of international and domestic circumstances via J.P. Morgan & Co. case in relations with American government and congress.