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김흥종 ( Kim Heung-chong ) 한국외교협회 2023 외교 Vol.144 No.0
최근 대외경제환경은 급격히 변화하고 있다, 진영화와 파편화 속에서 경제상황은 매우 어려운 과정을 지나고 있으며, 팬데믹과 전쟁, 그리고 디지털과 그린 전환이 가속화되면서 불확실성과 위험이 크게 증가하였다. 이러한 환경의 변화는 국제경제질서를 변화시켜, 세계화의 퇴조, 미·중경쟁의 심화, 자국우선주의 의 확산, 대전환의 가속화, 글로벌보건환경의 변화가 특징적으로 나타나고 있다. 새로운 국제경제질서의 변화에 대응하기 위한 통상정책의 과제가 다양한 차원에서 제기되고 있다. 이러한 도전과제를 슬기롭게 극복하기 위해서는 통상정책의 기본 원칙으로 혁신성, 공존성, 연결성, 일관성이 강조될 필요가 있으며, 정책적 안정성과 회복력을 강화하기 위해서 경제안보적 관점을 도입하는 것이 필수적이다. 결국 통상외교는 대전환의 시기 진영화, 파편화되어 극도로 불확실한 국제경제상황에서 전통적, 비전통적 안보에 위협이 되고 있는 요인을 사전에 인지하고 제어하는데 기여할 수 있도록, 갖고 있는 외교자산을 충분히 활용하고, 외교자산의 활용이 통상정책의 네 가지 기본방향에 부합하는지 항상 확인하는 과정에 다름 아니다. 그리고 이 과정에서 모든 사안을 경제안보적 관점에서 다시 생각해 보는 것이 필요하다. The international economy is recently experiencing turbulent changes, with the trends of blocization and fragmentation posing severe difficulties, while significant challenges caused by the global pandemic, war, and call for digital transformation and green transition are greatly escalating uncertainty and risk across the globe. These changes in the global environment are transforming the international economic order, materializing in the forms of retreating globalization, increasing strategic competition between the U.S. and China, the rise in countries subordinating all other values to the pursuit of their national interests, acceleration of the Great Transformation, and changes in global healthcare environments. The need for trade policies to effectively respond to the new order in the global economy is being raised on several levels. These challenges require an emphasis on the basic principles of trade policy - Creativity, Coexistence, Connectivity, and Coherence - together with the implementation of an economic security perspective to promote stability and resilience in policies. Trade diplomacy is ultimately a process of perceiving in advance traditional and non-traditional threat factors to security - as the blocization of states and fragmentation continues in a period of great transformation, thus creating extremely uncertain conditions in the global economy - and utilizing diplomatic assets to promote efforts to control these factors, while constantly reviewing whether these assets are being used in a direction consistent with the four basic principles of trade policy. Further considerations must be made to re-evaluate all issues from the perspective of economic security.
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김흥종(Kim Heung-chong) 경기연구원 2007 경기논단 Vol.9 No.3
The Korea-EU FTA now under negotiation is anticipated to bring substantial impacts on the Korean economy, as the EU economy, the largest in terms of real GDP and one of the most advanced economy in the world, is the second biggest trading partner of Korea after China. EU has established higher tariff rates than those of the U.S. and rather complementary industrial structure to the Korean one, which may lead to higher economic benefits without higher costs of domestic adjustments. The second-round negotiation in the Korea-EU FTA observed growing contending issues between Korea and the EU in the fields of processed foods, textile/clothing, machinery and automobiles, pharmaceuticals, NTBs, legal, accounting and financial services, and IPRs. Next rounds of the negotiation needs to make an agreement in the concession rates, the degree of IPR protection, and the harmonization of regulations and NTBs. It must be noted in the negotiation that the EU is different from other countries in that the European Commission is entitled to use its power in a very limited areas. Positive approach in the liberalization of services, lifting NTBs, subsidies in the agriculture need to be dealt in with care. The image of the EU’s soft power can be utilized and it must be kept in mind that balancing interests of the Korea-EU FTA with those of the KORUS FTA is very important. It needs to bear in mind that the Korea-EU FTA under negotiation will provide new engine for growth to the Korean economy.
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주상영 ( Sang Yong Joo ),김흥종 ( Heung Chong Kim ) 한국EU학회 2006 EU학연구 Vol.11 No.1
We investigate the macroeconomic performances of Europe and its future prospects. Major interest is given to economic growth and unemployment. The two indicators through economic structures and institutions, including the regulation of labor, financial system, and product market competition are examined. We find that European countries regulate labor and product markets more than the U.S. or English-origin countries. Also they have a bank-based financial system. Through empirical study, we have found that heavier regulation of labor and product markets and less market oriented financial system are associated with lower economic growth. In particular, the heavier regulation of labor is linked to higher unemployment. Unemployment also depends on the degree of trust or partnership between labor and capital. Especially, since the mid 1990s, IT industries have not contributed to the economy as they have in the U.S. However, past performances of European economy would not be that bad since overall productivity per worker has steadily increased. Furthermore, recent trends show that product markets have become more competitive, the financial system has become more market oriented, and the trust between labor and capital has become higher. Other institutions such as corruption, rule of law, and political stability are very solid in Europe.
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수렴도 2%는 과연 안정적인가? : 舊 西獨 지역 성장의 수렴도 분석 Some Counter-evidence from Western German Regions
金興鍾 한국EU학회 1999 EU학연구 Vol.4 No.1
The aim of this paper is to examine regional growth pattern in western part of Germany since 1970 and to cast doubt on robustness of the famous "convergence rate of 2%" that Barro & sala-i-Martin have argued. Empircal analysis focuses on regional growth of western German areas after unification. We showed that income gap among regions in western Germany has increased in 1990s. Positive sign of the estimated coefficients for covergence of regional growth indicates that we cannot find tendency of convergence in the western German area after unification. Testing hypothesis shows that the "convergence rate of 2%" is rejected in those areas after unification.
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